Next: at Blessed Trinity, Fri 6 Nov. Matchup report: Cambridge at Blessed Trinity.

The number to watch when Cambridge meets Blessed Trinity is Cambridge's scoring. Cambridge averaged 16.5 points per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #344 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), the Bears have averaged 29.2 points per game, a 77% rise, #185 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Cambridge's last 5 opponents have averaged 26.8 points per game, a #274 scoring defense in section on the season, against 22.9 points per game, #196 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (26.8 points per game), Cambridge scored 9% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #205 in section, well below the first 4 (#73), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Blessed Trinity's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Titans have allowed 14.0 points per game over their last 5 games (5-0), #69 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (26.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #203). Against those norms, Blessed Trinity held those offenses 47% below what they usually score. Something has to give when Cambridge's surging offense meets one of section's better units in Blessed Trinity's.

Cambridge allowed 8.8 yards per play (1,527 yards on 173 snaps) over its first 4 games (1-3), #424 in section through those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), the Bears have allowed 5.7 yards per play (1,038 yards on 183 snaps), a 36% drop, #114 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Cambridge's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.2 yards per play, a #250 offense in section on the season, against 8.0 yards per play, #83 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.2 yards per play), Cambridge held those offenses 9% below their usual yards per snap. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #205 in section, well below the first 4 (#73), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Blessed Trinity's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Titans have averaged 7.4 yards per play (1,704 yards on 230 snaps) over their last 5 games (5-0), #165 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (6.9 yards per play on the season, which would rank #271). Against those norms, Blessed Trinity gained 8% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. Blessed Trinity offers Cambridge a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

The biggest shift in Cambridge's season has come in its passing game. Cambridge averaged 6.2 yards per pass attempt (440 yards on 71 attempts) over its first 3 games (0-3), #284 in section within that period. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), the Bears have averaged 11.0 yards per pass attempt (1,221 yards on 111 attempts), a 78% rise, #67 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Cambridge's last 6 opponents have averaged 9.2 yards per attempt, a #345 pass defense in section on the season, against 8.0 yards per attempt, #239 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.2 yards per attempt), Cambridge threw for 19% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #195 in section, well below the first 3 (#56), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Cambridge ranks #128 in section in passing. Blessed Trinity's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #175 in section (7.4 yards per attempt).

Cambridge's defense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Bears allowed 47.7 points per game over their first 3 games (0-3), #455 in section during those games. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), Cambridge has allowed 21.2 points per game, a 56% drop, #179 in section during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Cambridge's last 6 opponents have averaged 26.7 points per game, a #199 offense in section on the season, against 36.2 points per game, #78 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (26.7 points per game), Cambridge held those offenses 21% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #195 in section, well below the first 3 (#56), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Marist broke through in that span, putting up 38 on 10/9. On the season, the Bears rank #335 in section in scoring defense. That form gets a real test against Blessed Trinity, whose offense ranks #68 in section (37.2 points per game). Cambridge is 5-0 this season when it holds opponents under 38, and 0-4 when it doesn't.

Something changed for Cambridge's run defense after its first 4 games. Cambridge allowed 7.1 yards per carry (789 yards on 111 rushes) over its first 4 games (1-3), #380 in section during that stretch. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), the Bears have allowed 5.2 yards per carry (628 yards on 121 rushes), a 27% drop, #158 in section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Cambridge's last 5 opponents have averaged 5.1 yards per carry, a #272 rushing attack in section on the season, against 6.8 yards per carry, #105 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #205 in section, well below the first 4 (#73), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Cambridge ranks #282 in section in run defense. Blessed Trinity's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #225 in section (5.5 yards per carry).

Cambridge's offense has gained more yards per snap as the season has worn on. The Bears averaged 5.6 yards per play (872 yards on 155 snaps) over their first 3 games (0-3), #275 in section over that timeframe. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), Cambridge has averaged 6.9 yards per play (2,099 yards on 306 snaps), a 22% rise, #198 in section over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.6 yards per play on the season. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #195 in section, well below the first 3 (#56), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Bears rank #225 in section in yards per play. That form gets a real test against Blessed Trinity, whose defense ranks #42 in section (5.0 yards per play).

Cambridge's ground game has bogged down on the ground as the season has progressed. Cambridge averaged 5.1 yards per carry (432 yards on 84 rushes) over its first 3 games (0-3), #246 in section in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (5-1), the Bears have averaged 4.5 yards per carry (878 yards on 195 rushes), a 12% drop, #322 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Cambridge's last 6 opponents have averaged 4.9 yards per carry, a #119 run defense in section on the season, against 5.5 yards per carry, #199 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.9 yards per carry), Cambridge ran for 8% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #195 in section, well below the first 3 (#56), which makes the dip harder to excuse. On the season, Cambridge ranks #323 in section in rushing. It won't get any easier against Blessed Trinity, whose run defense ranks #9 in section (3.1 yards per carry).