In short: Castaic Coyotes high school football (Castaic, CA), 2026 season: 3-6 in the Foothill League. Last game: L 0-14 vs West Ranch on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Saugus, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Castaic's next game, against Saugus, and the recent returns favor Castaic. Castaic forced 1.0 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (2-3), #241 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Coyotes have forced 2.2 takeaways per game, a 125% rise, #40 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Castaic's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.4 per game, a #242 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.1 per game, #146 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Castaic forced 66% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Conversely, Saugus' ball security has been one of CIF-SS's better units in recent weeks. The Centurions have committed 0.2 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #16 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker defenses in CIF-SS (0.9 per game on the season, which would rank #299). Against those norms, Saugus turned it over 73% less than those defenses usually force. Something has to give when Castaic's surging defense meets one of CIF-SS's better units in Saugus'.
The number to watch when Castaic meets Saugus is Castaic's scoring. Castaic averaged 27.5 points per game over its first 6 games (3-3), #157 in CIF-SS through those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Coyotes have averaged 3.0 points per game, an 89% drop, #394 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Castaic's last 3 opponents have averaged 23.8 points per game, a #208 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 31.2 points per game, #319 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.8 points per game), Castaic scored 87% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #184 in CIF-SS, well above the first 6 (#250), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Castaic was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 0 against HART on 10/16. Meanwhile, Saugus' defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Centurions have allowed 31.7 points per game over their last 3 games (2-1), #283 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in CIF-SS (23.2 points per game on the season, which would rank #226). Against those norms, Saugus allowed 36% more than those offenses usually score. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Castaic is 3-0 this season when it scores 25 or more, and 0-6 when it doesn't.
NOTES
Castaic's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Castaic averaged 5.1 yards per carry (1,000 yards on 197 rushes) on the season, #253 in CIF-SS, but that number is boosted by a 264-yard game on 20 rushes against Canyon on 10/2. In all other games, Castaic is at 4.2 yards per carry (736 yards on 177 rushes), a figure that would rank #319 in CIF-SS. Context matters here: Canyon's run defense ranks among the weakest in CIF-SS (10.4 yards per carry, #397 of 404), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Against Saugus, Castaic draws a middle-of-the-pack run defense (4.9 yards per carry, #113), so expect something closer to the 4.2 version.
The biggest shift in Castaic's season has come in its defense. The Coyotes allowed 37.2 points per game over their first 5 games (2-3), #363 in CIF-SS within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), Castaic has allowed 21.5 points per game, a 42% drop, #171 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Castaic's last 4 opponents have averaged 20.2 points per game, a #274 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 27.9 points per game, #155 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (20.2 points per game), Castaic allowed 6% more than those offenses usually score. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. Only HART broke through in that span, putting up 35 on 10/16. On the season, the Coyotes rank #309 in CIF-SS in scoring defense. That form gets a real test against Saugus, whose offense ranks #31 in CIF-SS (39.1 points per game). Castaic is 3-3 this season when it holds opponents under 40, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
Castaic's passing game from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Castaic averaged 9.1 yards per pass attempt (700 yards on 77 attempts) over its first 3 games (2-1), #102 in CIF-SS during those games. In the 6 games since that hot start (1-5), the Coyotes have averaged 5.8 yards per pass attempt (667 yards on 115 attempts), a 36% drop, #295 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 9.0 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.9 yards per attempt), Castaic threw for 35% less per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #184 in CIF-SS, well above the first 3 (#313), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Castaic ranks #222 in CIF-SS in passing. Saugus' pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #246 in CIF-SS (8.3 yards per attempt).
The Coyotes allowed 9.1 yards per play (1,690 yards on 185 snaps) over their first 5 games (2-3), #363 in CIF-SS during that stretch. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), Castaic has allowed 6.3 yards per play (1,090 yards on 173 snaps), a 31% drop, #158 in CIF-SS over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Castaic's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.1 yards per play, a #242 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 6.9 yards per play, #162 for the first 5. On the season, the Coyotes rank #298 in CIF-SS in yards per play allowed. That form gets a real test against Saugus, whose offense ranks #61 in CIF-SS (8.3 yards per play).
Something changed for Castaic's run defense after the first 5 games of the season. Castaic allowed 7.7 yards per carry (843 yards on 110 rushes) over its first 5 games (2-3), #340 in CIF-SS over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Coyotes have allowed 5.6 yards per carry (668 yards on 119 rushes), a 27% drop, #179 in CIF-SS over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.6 yards per carry on the season. On the season, Castaic ranks #281 in CIF-SS in run defense. Saugus' ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #105 in CIF-SS (6.6 yards per carry).
TIDBITS (7 found)
• Club Castaic has lost 3 straight, and a loss would make it 4 in a row. The last time they lost 4 or more in a row was 2024, a run of 11.
• Club Castaic has gone 13 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (October 10, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 3-10 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (26 games).
• Club Castaic has gone 7 straight games being held under 200 passing yards (September 3, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-6 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (11 games).
• Player Lucas Duryea has 32 tackles over his last 3 games (10.7 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch since the 32 he had from September 10, 2026 through October 2, 2026.
• Player Aidan Standard - Mojica has never had a game rushing for 100+ yards for Castaic, over a 16-game career on record. His career high is 91, set October 2, 2026 against Canyon (W, 42-7).
• Player Aidan Standard - Mojica has never had a game throwing for 200+ yards for Castaic, over a 16-game career on record. His career high is 171, set August 28, 2025 against Calabasas (L, 6-47).
• Player Takai Bogan has gone 6 straight games without catching a touchdown pass. The last time he caught a touchdown pass was September 3, 2026 against Cleveland (L, 7-45) — 1 TD catch.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Castaic has played a middle-of-the-road schedule in the pool so far (#228 of 405), and what is left is a tougher-than-average slate (#121 of 383): the hard part is still ahead.
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#228 of 405
avg opponent rating 2.3 over 9 games · 0 vs top-25 CIF-SS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#121 of 383
avg opponent rating 13.3 over 1 games · 0 vs top-25
Buena W 40-27@Littlero… W 48-0Cleveland L 7-45@Oak Park L 21-45@Valencia L 7-69@Canyon W 42-7Golden V… L 9-30HART L 0-35@West Ran… L 0-14Saugus
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
MILESTONE WATCH
Castaic
Lucas Duryea needs 9 tackles for 100 (averaging 10.1 a game)
Tristan Arriaga needs 15 tackles for 75 (averaging 15.0 a game)
Lincoln Kusumi needs 6 tackles for 50 (averaging 4.9 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 23 game; last updated Oct 28; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 8/9, sacks allowed 8/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 34.0/100 (-47 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 11.8/100 (-108 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 51.5/100 (-6 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 22.4/100 (+58 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
CAS HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• CAS averages 7.0+ yards per play (.833), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• CAS holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.714), and has won 2 straight when doing so
CAS — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (29 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-14
.000
3.6
Scores 10-19
0-4
.000
15.0
Scores 20-29
1-2
.333
23.0
Scores 30-39
1-2
.333
33.0
Scores 40+
5-0
1.000
43.4
CAS — OFFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
2-1
.667
32.3
L1
YPA < 8.0
1-5
.167
12.8
L2
Pass Yds 200+
2-0
1.000
44.0
W2
Pass Yds < 200
1-6
.143
12.3
L3
Rush Yds 100+
2-2
.500
28.0
L1
Rush Yds < 100
1-4
.200
12.4
L4
Rush Yds 150+
2-1
.667
34.3
W1
Rush Yds < 150
1-5
.167
11.8
L5
YPC 5.0+
2-1
.667
37.0
W1
YPC < 5.0
1-5
.167
10.5
L5
YPP 6.0+
3-2
.600
32.0
L1
YPP < 6.0
0-4
.000
3.5
L4
YPP 7.0+
3-0
1.000
43.3
W3
YPP < 7.0
0-6
.000
7.3
L6
Turnovers 1+
2-5
.286
18.0
L2
Turnovers < 1
1-1
.500
24.0
L1
Turnovers 2+
0-2
.000
3.5
L2
Turnovers > 2
--
--
--
--
CAS — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-5
.000
4.6
Scores 10-19
--
--
--
Scores 20-29
0-1
.000
21.0
Scores 30-39
--
--
--
Scores 40+
3-0
1.000
43.3
CAS — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (29 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
1-15
.062
42.0
L13
YPA < 8.0
5-4
.556
24.7
W2
4 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
1-4
.200
48.6
L4
Pass Yds < 200
5-16
.238
32.4
L3
3 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
5-19
.208
38.5
L5
Rush Yds < 100
1-2
.333
14.0
L1
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
4-15
.211
38.8
L11
Rush Yds < 150
2-6
.250
28.5
L1
2 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
3-19
.136
39.4
L15
YPC < 5.0
3-2
.600
20.0
L1
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
1-19
.050
41.2
L17
YPP < 6.0
5-2
.714
20.3
W2
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
1-18
.053
41.0
L16
YPP < 7.0
5-3
.625
23.4
W2
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
7-12
.368
28.6
L2
Turnovers < 1
0-10
.000
45.7
L10
Turnovers 2+
5-9
.357
28.7
L1
Turnovers > 2
3-3
.500
23.5
L1
CAS — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (29 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
3-0
1.000
4.7
Allows 10-19
1-1
.500
15.0
Allows 20-29
3-3
.500
24.7
Allows 30-39
0-6
.000
34.5
Allows 40+
0-12
.000
50.2
CAS — DEFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-5
.000
41.6
L5
YPA < 8.0
2-0
1.000
17.0
W2
2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-2
.000
57.0
L2
Pass Yds < 200
2-4
.333
26.3
L3
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
1-5
.167
41.8
L5
Rush Yds < 100
1-1
.500
10.5
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
0-5
.000
44.8
L5
Rush Yds < 150
2-1
.667
16.0
L1
1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
0-5
.000
44.8
L5
YPC < 5.0
2-1
.667
16.0
L1
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
0-6
.000
39.7
L6
YPP < 6.0
2-0
1.000
17.0
W2
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-6
.000
39.7
L6
YPP < 7.0
2-0
1.000
17.0
W2
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
3-3
.500
20.5
L2
Turnovers < 1
0-3
.000
49.7
L3
Turnovers 2+
2-2
.500
23.2
L1
Turnovers > 2
1-1
.500
10.5
L1
CAS — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
2-0
1.000
3.5
Allows 10-19
0-1
.000
14.0
Allows 20-29
1-0
1.000
27.0
Allows 30-39
0-2
.000
32.5
Allows 40+
0-3
.000
53.0
ON THE BRINK
CASTAIC
• CASTAIC has been held under 14 in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not been held under 14 in 4 straight since 8/22/25–10/10/25 (2025).
• CASTAIC has been held under 100 rushing in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not been held under 100 rushing in 3 straight since 8/28/25–10/24/25 (2025).
• CASTAIC has lost 3 straight (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not lost 4 straight since 10/25/24–10/31/25 (2025).
CAS's defense has averaged 80.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 26-game average is 147.3 pass yards per game. (-45%)
CAS's defense has averaged 13.3 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 9.7 YPA. (+37%)
CAS's defense has averaged 26.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 34.5 points allowed per game. (-24%)
CAS's defense has averaged 6.1 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 8.0 YPC. (-24%)
CAS's defense has averaged 1.8 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 29-game average is 1.5 takeaways per game. (+21%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where CASTAIC sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 29.0, Defense Grade 34.4.
PASS YARDS / GAME: CASTAIC VS THE SECTION
CASTAIC ranks #56 of 356 section teams in passing yards per game (220.2) -- a strength worth a look.
CASTAIC: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 3.0 in 2022 to -9.3 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
