In short: Carpinteria Warriors high school football (Carpinteria, CA), 2026 season: 1-8 in the Citrus Coast League. Last game: L 10-21 vs Del Sol on October 23, 2026. Next: at Nordhoff, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Carpinteria's next game, against Nordhoff, and the recent returns favor Nordhoff. Carpinteria committed 0.5 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #27 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Warriors have committed 3.0 giveaways per game, a 500% rise, #393 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Carpinteria's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.6 per game, a #130 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.1 per game, #239 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Carpinteria turned it over 93% more than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #321 in CIF-SS, well below the first 4 (#196), which makes the dip harder to excuse. Meanwhile, Nordhoff's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Rangers have forced 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 5 games (4-1), #231 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in CIF-SS (1.4 per game on the season, which would rank #246). Against those norms, Nordhoff forced 29% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #336 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Nordhoff offers Carpinteria a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
The number to watch when Carpinteria meets Nordhoff is Carpinteria's scoring. Carpinteria averaged 5.8 points per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #390 in CIF-SS through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (1-4), the Warriors have averaged 14.4 points per game, a 150% rise, #336 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Carpinteria's last 5 opponents have averaged 27.2 points per game, a #264 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 18.2 points per game, #110 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.2 points per game), Carpinteria scored 47% less than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #321 in CIF-SS, well below the first 4 (#196), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Nordhoff's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Rangers have allowed 21.6 points per game over their last 5 games (4-1), #176 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in CIF-SS (22.9 points per game on the season, which would rank #237). Against those norms, Nordhoff held those offenses 6% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #336 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Nordhoff offers Carpinteria a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
NOTES
Carpinteria's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Carpinteria averaged 1.9 yards per carry (304 yards on 159 rushes) on the season, #373 in CIF-SS, but that number is boosted by a 215-yard game on 32 rushes against Santa Clara on 10/9. In all other games, Carpinteria is at 0.7 yards per carry (89 yards on 127 rushes), a figure that would rank #377 in CIF-SS. Santa Clara's run defense sits near the middle of the pack (5.8 yards per carry, #209 of 404). Against Nordhoff, Carpinteria draws a middle-of-the-pack run defense (5.9 yards per carry, #222), so expect something closer to the 0.7 version.
The biggest shift in Carpinteria's season has come in its offense. The Warriors averaged 3.2 yards per play (487 yards on 153 snaps) over their first 4 games (0-4), #366 in CIF-SS within that period. In the 5 games since that slow start (1-4), Carpinteria has averaged 4.7 yards per play (794 yards on 169 snaps), a 48% rise, #321 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Carpinteria's last 5 opponents have averaged 7.2 yards per play, a #259 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 6.5 yards per play, #195 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.2 yards per play), Carpinteria gained 34% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #321 in CIF-SS, well below the first 4 (#196), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Warriors rank #366 in CIF-SS in yards per play. Nordhoff's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #176 in CIF-SS (6.3 yards per play).
Carpinteria allowed 35.4 points per game over its first 5 games (0-5), #348 in CIF-SS during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Warriors have allowed 23.0 points per game, a 35% drop, #193 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Carpinteria's last 4 opponents have averaged 25.4 points per game, a #196 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 29.7 points per game, #126 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (25.4 points per game), Carpinteria held those offenses 10% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #323 in CIF-SS, well below the first 5 (#219), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Grace broke through in that span, putting up 40 on 10/16. On the season, Carpinteria ranks #302 in CIF-SS in scoring defense. That form gets a real test against Nordhoff, whose offense ranks #38 in CIF-SS (37.8 points per game). Carpinteria is 1-5 this season when it holds opponents under 38, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
TIDBITS (8 found)
• Club Carpinteria has lost 2 straight, and a loss would make it 3 in a row. The last time they lost 3 or more in a row was 2025, a run of 8.
• Club Carpinteria has gone 8 straight games forcing 1+ turnover (September 4, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-7 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 22 seasons on record.
• Club Carpinteria is 13-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (13 such games).
• Player Gabriel Chung has 3 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Isaac Neri has never had a game throwing for 200+ yards for Carpinteria, over a 15-game career on record. His career high is 178, set September 11, 2026 against Webb (L, 14-49).
• Player Gabriel Chung has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Carpinteria, over a 14-game career on record. His career high is 86, set October 10, 2025 against Grace (L, 20-52).
• Player Brayden Real has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Carpinteria, over a 16-game career on record. His career high is 89, set September 25, 2026 against Calvary Chapel (L, 13-29).
• Player Caleb Kelly has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Carpinteria, over a 17-game career on record. His career high is 9, set October 30, 2025 against Channel Islands (L, 21-34).
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 28; roster and numbers checked Oct 6.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
4 CIF-SS titles · 4 CIF-SS runner-up finishes · 3 CIF-SS Players of the Year
YEAR
HONOR
2002
CIF-SS Div. XI CHAMPION (def. Valley Christian/Cer 26-22)
CIF-SS Defensive Player of the Year (XI): JOEL CARTY
CIF-SS Offensive Player of the Year (XI): AARON GONZALEZ
1998
CIF-SS Div. XI RUNNER-UP (lost to St. Monica 28-24)
CIF-SS Offensive Player of the Year (XI): RYAN GOCONG
1995
CIF-SS Div. IX RUNNER-UP (lost to Atascadero 43-26)
1991
CIF-SS Div. IX CHAMPION (def. Tehachapi 14-7)
1989
CIF-SS Div. IX CHAMPION (def. Tehachapi 24-21)
1987
CIF-SS Inland CHAMPION (def. Tehachapi 27-0)
1986
CIF-SS Inland RUNNER-UP (lost to Valley Christian/Cerritos 10-7)
1979
CIF-SS Desert-Mountain RUNNER-UP (lost to Indio 26-0)
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 8/9, defense 8/9, sacks/INT 8/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 15.0/100 (-90 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 4.2/100 (-151 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 11.4/100 (+67 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 49.0/100 (-1 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
CAR finished 2025 at 3-6. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 62-33 over DEL SOL (DEL SOL finished 10% that season). Toughest loss: 21-34 to CHANNEL ISLANDS (13-point margin).
CAR — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (27 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-11
.000
3.8
Scores 10-19
0-6
.000
11.8
Scores 20-29
2-3
.400
22.0
Scores 30-39
1-0
1.000
35.0
Scores 40+
4-0
1.000
54.0
CAR — OFFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-1
.000
14.0
L1
YPA < 8.0
1-6
.143
10.1
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-1
.000
14.0
L1
Pass Yds < 200
1-6
.143
10.1
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
1-0
1.000
35.0
W1
Rush Yds < 100
0-7
.000
7.1
L7
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
1-0
1.000
35.0
W1
Rush Yds < 150
0-7
.000
7.1
L7
1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
1-0
1.000
35.0
W1
YPC < 5.0
0-7
.000
7.1
L7
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
0-1
.000
14.0
L1
YPP < 6.0
1-6
.143
10.1
L1
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
--
--
--
--
YPP < 7.0
1-7
.125
10.6
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
0-6
.000
8.5
L6
Turnovers < 1
1-2
.333
14.7
W1
Turnovers 2+
0-4
.000
9.2
L4
Turnovers > 2
0-2
.000
6.5
L2
CAR — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-4
.000
2.2
Scores 10-19
0-4
.000
12.8
Scores 20-29
--
--
--
Scores 30-39
1-0
1.000
35.0
Scores 40+
--
--
--
CAR — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (27 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-13
.000
40.5
L13
YPA < 8.0
4-6
.400
22.8
W1
4 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-9
.000
46.6
L9
Pass Yds < 200
4-10
.286
24.0
L1
4 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
2-16
.111
34.9
L6
Rush Yds < 100
3-3
.500
24.5
W1
3 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
2-12
.143
35.0
L2
Rush Yds < 150
3-7
.300
28.5
L1
3 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
3-16
.158
36.2
L1
YPC < 5.0
2-3
.400
17.4
L3
3 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
2-15
.118
37.2
L1
YPP < 6.0
3-4
.429
20.4
L2
3 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-13
.000
43.2
L13
YPP < 7.0
5-6
.455
19.4
L1
3 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
4-14
.222
30.5
L2
Turnovers < 1
1-5
.167
34.2
L5
3 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
2-7
.222
27.9
L4
3 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
0-2
.000
38.5
L2
3 games without this stat on file
CAR — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (27 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
4-0
1.000
6.5
Allows 10-19
1-2
.333
14.0
Allows 20-29
1-4
.200
22.8
Allows 30-39
1-3
.250
33.5
Allows 40+
0-11
.000
46.5
CAR — DEFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-6
.000
33.8
L6
YPA < 8.0
1-1
.500
15.5
W1
1 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-3
.000
45.7
L3
Pass Yds < 200
1-4
.200
19.4
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
0-5
.000
29.8
L5
Rush Yds < 100
1-2
.333
28.3
W1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
0-2
.000
22.5
L2
Rush Yds < 150
1-5
.167
31.5
L1
1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
1-4
.200
32.0
L1
YPC < 5.0
0-3
.000
24.7
L3
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
1-5
.167
31.5
L1
YPP < 6.0
0-2
.000
22.5
L2
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-4
.000
38.2
L4
YPP < 7.0
1-3
.250
20.2
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
1-7
.125
31.6
L2
Turnovers < 1
0-1
.000
16.0
L1
Turnovers 2+
0-4
.000
36.0
L4
Turnovers > 2
0-1
.000
35.0
L1
CAR — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
1-0
1.000
7.0
Allows 10-19
0-1
.000
16.0
Allows 20-29
0-3
.000
24.7
Allows 30-39
0-1
.000
35.0
Allows 40+
0-3
.000
45.7
ON THE BRINK
CARPINTERIA
• CARPINTERIA has forced 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight since 9/5/25–9/19/25 (2025).
• CARPINTERIA has committed 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not committed 2+ turnovers in 3 straight since 9/8/23–9/22/23 (2023).
• CARPINTERIA has been held under 14 in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not been held under 14 in 3 straight since 9/12/25–9/26/25 (2025). It has reached 3 straight 2 times in the last 4 years.
CAR's defense has averaged 1.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 24-game average is 1.2 takeaways per game. (+38%)
CAR's defense has averaged 4.7 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 24-game average is 7.6 YPC. (-38%)
CAR's defense has averaged 106.0 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 24-game average is 168.1 rush yards per game. (-37%)
CAR's defense has averaged 6.5 YPP over their last 5 games. Their 24-game average is 9.0 YPP. (-27%)
CAR's defense has averaged 22.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 30.7 points allowed per game. (-26%)
CAR's defense has averaged 217.0 pass yards per game over their last 12 games. Their 23-game average is 172.9 pass yards per game. (+25%)
CAR's defense has averaged 8.4 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 23-game average is 10.8 YPA. (-23%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where CARPINTERIA sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 18.2, Defense Grade 24.4.
YARDS / CARRY: CARPINTERIA VS THE SECTION
CARPINTERIA ranks #352 of 356 section teams in yards per carry (1.33) -- a weakness worth a look.
CARPINTERIA: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -22.0 in 2022 to -18.5 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
