In short: Arroyo Valley Hawks high school football (San Bernardino, CA), 2026 season: 7-4 in the Skyline League. Last game: W 30-15 vs Peninsula on November 6, 2026. Next: at Costa Mesa, November 13, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Arroyo Valley's next game, against Costa Mesa, and the recent returns favor Arroyo Valley. Arroyo Valley forced 1.1 takeaways per game over its first 7 games (4-3), #223 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), the Hawks have forced 2.5 takeaways per game, a 119% rise, #21 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Arroyo Valley's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.7 per game, a #305 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.1 per game, #142 for the first 7. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.7 per game), Arroyo Valley forced 51% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #330 in CIF-SS, well below the first 7 (#255), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Costa Mesa's ball security has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Mustangs have committed 1.2 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #177 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in CIF-SS (1.1 per game on the season, which would rank #251). Against those norms, Costa Mesa turned it over 13% more than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #334 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Costa Mesa offers Arroyo Valley a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
The number to watch when Arroyo Valley meets Costa Mesa is Arroyo Valley's scoring. Arroyo Valley averaged 15.3 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #310 in CIF-SS through those games. In the 8 games since that slow start (6-2), the Hawks have averaged 30.9 points per game, a 101% rise, #112 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Arroyo Valley's last 8 opponents have averaged 28.2 points per game, a #276 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 22.5 points per game, #173 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (28.2 points per game), Arroyo Valley scored 9% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 8 opponents average a rating that would rank #303 in CIF-SS, well below the first 3 (#233), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Costa Mesa's defense has been one of CIF-SS's better units in recent weeks. The Mustangs have allowed 15.2 points per game over their last 8 games (5-3), #49 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in CIF-SS (22.7 points per game on the season, which would rank #243). Against those norms, Costa Mesa held those offenses 33% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #290 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Arroyo Valley's surging offense meets one of CIF-SS's better units in Costa Mesa's. Arroyo Valley is 7-1 this season when it scores 18 or more, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
NOTES
The biggest shift in Arroyo Valley's season has come in its defense. Arroyo Valley allowed 24.6 points per game over its first 5 games (2-3), #232 in CIF-SS within that period. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), the Hawks have allowed 10.8 points per game, a 56% drop, #22 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 22.7 points per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.5 points per game), Arroyo Valley held those offenses 54% below what they usually score. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #308 in CIF-SS. Only Carter broke through in that span, putting up 21 on 10/23. On the season, Arroyo Valley ranks #78 in CIF-SS in scoring defense. Costa Mesa's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #172 in CIF-SS (26.5 points per game). Arroyo Valley is 6-2 this season when it holds opponents under 27, and 1-2 when it doesn't.
The Hawks allowed 7.3 yards per play (1,403 yards on 193 snaps) over their first 5 games (2-3), #264 in CIF-SS during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), Arroyo Valley has allowed 5.4 yards per play (945 yards on 176 snaps), a 26% drop, #60 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Arroyo Valley's last 6 opponents have averaged 6.5 yards per play, a #197 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 5.9 yards per play, #260 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.5 yards per play), Arroyo Valley held those offenses 17% below their usual yards per snap. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #308 in CIF-SS. On the season, the Hawks rank #175 in CIF-SS in yards per play allowed. Costa Mesa's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #222 in CIF-SS (6.3 yards per play).
Arroyo Valley's ground game from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Arroyo Valley averaged 9.8 yards per carry (1,127 yards on 115 rushes) over its first 4 games (2-2), #18 in CIF-SS during that stretch. In the 7 games since that hot start (5-2), the Hawks have averaged 7.4 yards per carry (2,028 yards on 273 rushes), a 24% drop, #66 in CIF-SS over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.9 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.8 yards per carry), Arroyo Valley ran for 10% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Arroyo Valley ranks #38 in CIF-SS in rushing. It won't get any easier against Costa Mesa, whose run defense ranks #92 in CIF-SS (4.8 yards per carry).
Something changed for Arroyo Valley's offense after its first 5 games. The Hawks averaged 8.7 yards per play (1,411 yards on 163 snaps) over their first 5 games (2-3), #55 in CIF-SS over that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (5-1), Arroyo Valley has averaged 7.5 yards per play (1,922 yards on 256 snaps), a 13% drop, #126 in CIF-SS over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.5 yards per play on the season. On the season, the Hawks rank #83 in CIF-SS in yards per play. It won't get any easier against Costa Mesa, whose defense ranks #41 in CIF-SS (5.2 yards per play).
Arroyo Valley's run defense has shut down the ground game as the season has progressed. Arroyo Valley allowed 6.4 yards per carry (761 yards on 119 rushes) over its first 5 games (2-3), #273 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), the Hawks have allowed 5.6 yards per carry (688 yards on 122 rushes), a 12% drop, #184 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Arroyo Valley's last 6 opponents have averaged 6.1 yards per carry, a #144 rushing attack in CIF-SS on the season, against 5.3 yards per carry, #230 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.1 yards per carry), Arroyo Valley held those rushing attacks 7% below their usual yards per carry. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #308 in CIF-SS. On the season, Arroyo Valley ranks #229 in CIF-SS in run defense. Costa Mesa's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #227 in CIF-SS (5.3 yards per carry).
TIDBITS (9 found)
• Club Arroyo Valley has won 2 straight, and a win would make it 3 in a row. The last time they won 3 or more in a row was 2026, a run of 3.
• Club Arroyo Valley has gone 23 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (August 29, 2025 through November 6, 2026), going 16-7 over that stretch, a school-record 23 straight in the 22 seasons on record.
• Club Arroyo Valley has gone 10 straight games averaging 5.0+ yards per carry (August 27, 2026 through November 6, 2026), going 7-3 over that stretch, a school-record 10 straight in the 22 seasons on record.
• Club Arroyo Valley is 16-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (16 such games).
• Club Arroyo Valley is 16-0 all time when holding the opponent under 6.0 yards per play in the games on file (16 such games).
• Player C. Davis has 513 rushing yards over his last 5 games (102.6 a game, October 1, 2026 through October 30, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• Player Isaac Watts has 62 tackles over his last 5 games (12.4 a game, October 8, 2026 through November 6, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• Player C. Davis has gone 3 straight games running for a touchdown, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 4 straight games running for a touchdown, during the 2026 season.
• Player Bryan Carrell Jr has 59 tackles over his last 6 games (9.8 a game, September 18, 2026 through November 6, 2026) -- his most in a 6-game stretch since the 66 he had from November 7, 2025 through September 11, 2026.
MILESTONE WATCH
Arroyo Valley
Jesus Batease needs 2 tackles for 50 (averaging 4.4 a game)
Isaac Watts needs 6 tackles for 125 (averaging 11.9 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Nov 6 game; last updated Nov 11; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
CIF-SS Offensive Player of the Year (Central): ROBERT FULLER
2004
CIF-SS Offensive Player of the Year (V): MICHAEL COLEMAN
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 9/11, sacks allowed 9/11 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 6.7/100 (-115 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 91.5/100 (+129 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 63.3/100 (-22 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 42.0/100 (+12 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
AV finished 2025 at 9-3. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 26-24 over DESERT CHRISTIAN ACADEMY (DESERT CHRISTIAN ACADEMY finished 90% that season). Toughest loss: 14-16 to BLOOMINGTON (2-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
AV HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• AV holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.999), and has won 9 straight when doing so
• AV commits zero giveaways (.999), and has won 12 straight when doing so
• AV averages 6.0+ yards per play (.850), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• AV averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.750), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• AV's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 23 straight games (08/29/2025-11/06/2026), going 16-7 over that stretch.
• AV's offense has exceeded 150 rush yds in 10 straight games (08/27/2026-11/06/2026), going 7-3 over that stretch.
• AV's offense has averaged 0.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 24-game average is 7.5 YPA. (-91%)
• AV's offense has averaged 3.3 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 24-game average is 36.4 pass yards per game. (-91%)
• AV's offense has failed to reach 200 pass yds in 8 straight games (09/11/2026-11/06/2026), going 6-2 over that stretch.
• AV holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (AV's own median) (.917)
• AV holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per carry (AV's own median) (.917)
• AV holds its opponents under 7.2 yards per attempt (AV's own median) (.833)
• AV holds its opponents under 159.0 rushing yards (AV's own median) (.833)
• AV's defense has averaged 11.8 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 32-game average is 22.0 points allowed per game. (-46%)
• AV's defense has averaged 103.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 188.1 rush yards per game. (-45%)
• ARROYO VALLEY has rushed for 200+ in 9 straight games (9/4/26–11/6/26). It has not reached 10 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• ARROYO VALLEY has forced 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/30/26–11/6/26). It has not forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight since 10/3/25–10/24/25 (2025).
• ARROYO VALLEY has scored 30+ in 2 straight games (10/30/26–11/6/26). It has not scored 30+ in 3 straight since 10/17/25–10/30/25 (2025). It has reached 3 straight 4 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 5 straight (2025) in that span.
• ARROYO VALLEY has had a 100-yard rusher in 2 straight games (10/30/26–11/6/26). It has not had a 100-yard rusher in 3 straight since 9/4/26–10/8/26 (2026). It has reached 3 straight 4 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 10 straight (2023) in that span.
AV's defense has averaged 11.8 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 32-game average is 22.0 points allowed per game. (-46%)
AV's defense has averaged 103.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 188.1 rush yards per game. (-45%)
AV's defense has averaged 59.8 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 96.8 pass yards per game. (-38%)
AV's defense has averaged 6.0 YPA over their last 7 games. Their 25-game average is 8.7 YPA. (-32%)
AV's defense has averaged 2.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 32-game average is 1.8 takeaways per game. (+31%)
AV's defense has averaged 200.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 284.9 total yards per game. (-30%)
AV's defense has averaged 4.8 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 6.7 YPC. (-28%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where ARROYO VALLEY sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 51.4, Defense Grade 46.2.
YARDS / ATTEMPT: ARROYO VALLEY VS THE SECTION
ARROYO VALLEY ranks #353 of 354 section teams in yards per attempt (0.50) -- a weakness worth a look.
ARROYO VALLEY: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -20.8 in 2022 to -6.6 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
