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AT A GLANCE

In short: North (1-8) at Flowing Wells (4-6), September 11, 2026 (high school football). Final: Flowing Wells 42, North 0. The full report has the projection, unit grades, storylines, pregame notes, Big Game Watch, series history, season stats and both rosters.

SCOREPIRATE MATCHUP REPORT ·
NORTH (AWAY) AT FLOWING WELLS (HOME)
NORTH 0.7  —  47.3 FLOWING WELLS
FLOWING WELLS 98.9% FAVORITES

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UNIT INDEX — GRADE (YDS VS AVG)
TEAMPASS ORUSH OPASS DRUSH D
NORTH18.9 (-79.6)0.5 (-213.2)2.5 (+138.4)6.8 (+126.5)
FLOWING WELLS10.1 (-103.6)65.7 (+25.0)60.4 (-17.8)18.0 (+72.1)
NORTH AT FLOWING WELLS
ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW · 2026 SEASON
RANKS VS · 49 teams DOWNLOAD CARD AS PDFDOWNLOAD AS JPEG
WIN PROB
1.1%
PROJ PTS
0.7
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WIN PROB
98.9%
PROJ PTS
47.3
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Rank chips: 1 = best in the pool; blue strong, red weak. Yardage and efficiency use games with a full box score on file; points and turnovers use every played game. Unit Index = opponent-adjusted 0-100 league percentile.

PROJECTION COMPONENTS
COMPONENTPOINTSWEIGHTCONTRIBUTION
Strength-19.2728%-5.49
Efficiency-28.9925%-7.32
Own Margin-18.8223%-4.31
Head To Head-26.8222%-5.90
Common Opponents-5.981%-0.08
Garbage Time Margin--0%+0.00
EPA Efficiency--0%+0.00
What if he’s out?

Mark players out to re-project this game. Each value is how much of the margin that player is worth, from this season's data (his share of his team's win shares). Estimates — your selections change only your view.

PROJECTED TEAM YARDAGE
CATEGORYTEAMPROJECTED
PassingNORTH77.2
PassingFLOWING WELLS167.9
RushingNORTH90.6
RushingFLOWING WELLS334.7
TotalNORTH167.9
TotalFLOWING WELLS502.6
PROJECTED BOX SCORE
NORTH — PASSING
PLAYERC/ATTCOMP %YDSYPATDINTQBR
JACOB CHAVEZ7.6/12.660.3%77.26.10.60.3123.1
NORTH — RUSHING
PLAYERCARYDSYPCTD
AIDEN GALAVIZ21.290.64.30.6
NORTH — RECEIVING
PLAYERRECYDSYPCTD
WILMER PEREZ2.647.418.00.5
KOA WILLIAMS3.929.97.60.6
TOTALS6.677.211.81.1
FLOWING WELLS — PASSING
PLAYERC/ATTCOMP %YDSYPATDINTQBR
UNDETERMINED (NO RETURNING HISTORY)2.8/4.857.4%167.934.92.30.6484.5
FLOWING WELLS — RUSHING
PLAYERCARYDSYPCTD
MARTY HUDECEK JR24.5244.610.05.6
TRENTON PLUMLEY8.990.110.11.6
TOTALS33.4334.710.07.2
FLOWING WELLS — RECEIVING
PLAYERRECYDSYPCTD
XAVIER GALLIGAN9.3167.918.04.5
PREGAME NOTES

The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: North's yards per play. The Mustangs averaged 1.4 yards per play (42 yards on 31 snaps) against Flowing Wells on 9/11, well below their 3.6 mark in every other game this season. North lost the game 42-0. A yards per play number closer to North's norm would go a long way toward flipping the result this time.

North's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. North averaged 1.1 yards per carry (182 yards on 161 rushes) on the season, #229 in section, but that number is boosted by a 112-yard game on 24 rushes against Camelback on 10/23. In all other games, North is at 0.5 yards per carry (70 yards on 137 rushes), a figure that would rank #231 in section. Camelback's run defense sits near the middle of the pack (6.3 yards per carry, #126 of 253). Against Flowing Wells, North draws a middle-of-the-pack run defense (6.8 yards per carry, #148), so expect something closer to the 0.5 version.

The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: Flowing Wells' yards per play. The Caballeros averaged 11.9 yards per play (382 yards on 32 snaps) against North on 9/11, well above their 5.7 mark in every other game this season. Flowing Wells won the game 42-0. Repeating that kind of yards per play edge would put Flowing Wells in a strong position to do it again.

Flowing Wells' passing game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Flowing Wells averaged 6.2 yards per pass attempt (706 yards on 113 attempts) on the season, #174 in section, but that number is boosted by a 212-yard game on 17 attempts against Maricopa on 9/18. In all other games, Flowing Wells is at 5.1 yards per pass attempt (494 yards on 96 attempts), a figure that would rank #199 in section. Maricopa's pass defense sits near the middle of the pack (8.2 yards per attempt, #134 of 253). North's pass defense (19.7 yards per attempt, #252 of 253) gives Flowing Wells a real chance to look like the season line again.

Something changed for Flowing Wells' defense after its first 3 games. The Caballeros allowed 9.3 points per game over their first 3 games (2-1), #27 in section during that period. In the 7 games since that hot start (2-5), Flowing Wells has allowed 27.6 points per game, a 195% rise, #147 in section during that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Flowing Wells' last 7 opponents have averaged 20.8 points per game, a #165 offense in section on the season, against 13.3 points per game, #210 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (20.8 points per game), Flowing Wells allowed 33% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 7 opponents average a rating that would rank #150 in section, well above the first 3 (#234), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Caballeros rank #102 in section in scoring defense. North's offense, #237 of 255 (7.6 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Flowing Wells needs. Flowing Wells is 4-0 this season when it holds opponents under 8, and 0-6 when it doesn't.

One of Flowing Wells' shakiest areas lately has been its offense. Flowing Wells averaged 34.0 points per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #74 in section over that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Caballeros have averaged 2.4 points per game, a 93% drop, #248 in section over that timeframe. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Flowing Wells' last 5 opponents have averaged 22.0 points per game, a #100 scoring defense in section on the season, against 35.3 points per game, #207 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (22.0 points per game), Flowing Wells scored 89% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #122 in section, well above the first 5 (#227), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Flowing Wells was held to 14 points or fewer 5 times in those games, including 0 against Mountain View on 10/9. On the season, Flowing Wells ranks #182 in section in scoring. North's defense, #237 of 255 (43.7 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Flowing Wells needs.

STORYLINES

If there's one number to watch in this matchup, it's North's scoring. North averaged 4.7 points per game over its first 6 games (1-5), #241 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Mustangs have averaged 13.3 points per game, a 186% rise, #203 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: North's last 3 opponents have averaged 26.8 points per game, a #146 scoring defense in section on the season, against 33.5 points per game, #191 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (26.8 points per game), North scored 50% less than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #180 in section. Meanwhile, Flowing Wells' defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Caballeros have allowed 34.3 points per game over their last 3 games (0-3), #175 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (28.1 points per game on the season, which would rank #119). Against those norms, Flowing Wells allowed 22% more than those offenses usually score. On paper, that is a matchup that favors North.

The Flowing Wells defense that opened the season is not the one that has taken the field lately. Flowing Wells allowed 4.8 yards per play (1,078 yards on 224 snaps) over its first 6 games (4-2), #31 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), the Caballeros have allowed 9.2 yards per play (1,584 yards on 173 snaps), a 90% rise, #193 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Flowing Wells' last 4 opponents have averaged 7.6 yards per play, a #75 offense in section on the season, against 4.8 yards per play, #202 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.6 yards per play), Flowing Wells allowed 21% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #91 in section, well above the first 6 (#226), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, North's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Mustangs have averaged 4.2 yards per play (720 yards on 172 snaps) over their last 4 games (0-4), #208 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (6.9 yards per play on the season, which would rank #130). Against those norms, North gained 40% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #179 in section, a lower level of competition. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.

The battle on the ground has the potential to swing this matchup, with the recent returns favoring North. Flowing Wells averaged 8.9 yards per carry (1,169 yards on 131 rushes) over its first 5 games (3-2), #26 in section within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Caballeros have averaged 3.9 yards per carry (615 yards on 157 rushes), a 56% drop, #194 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Flowing Wells' last 5 opponents have averaged 5.8 yards per carry, a #109 run defense in section on the season, against 9.3 yards per carry, #228 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.8 yards per carry), Flowing Wells ran for 33% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #122 in section, well above the first 5 (#227), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, North's run defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Mustangs have allowed 9.9 yards per carry (984 yards on 99 rushes) over their last 5 games (0-5), #225 in section during those games. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of rushing attacks in section (5.4 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #148). Against those norms, North allowed 85% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #172 in section, a lower level of competition. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.

SERIES HISTORY — NOR vs FW
Prep this game in Stat BoothNORTH team sheetFLOWING WELLS team sheet
TIDBITS (18 found)

• Club The last time North went a game averaging 7.0+ yards per play was September 5, 2025 against Casa Grande (L, 13-56). Since then North has gone 17 straight games being held under 7.0 yards per play, a school-record 17 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Flowing Wells has gone 5 straight games being held under 8.0 yards per attempt (October 2, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 1-4 over that stretch, a school-record 5 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club North has gone 11 straight games being held under 150 rushing yards (October 24, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 2-9 over that stretch, a school-record 11 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club North has lost 5 straight, and a loss would make it 6 in a row -- something they have not done in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Flowing Wells has gone 5 straight games being held under 5.0 yards per carry (October 2, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 1-4 over that stretch, a school-record 5 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club North has gone 9 straight games being held under 5.0 yards per carry (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-8 over that stretch, a school-record 9 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Flowing Wells has gone 5 straight games being held under 6.0 yards per play (October 2, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 1-4 over that stretch, a school-record 5 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club North is 1-8 entering play against Flowing Wells, its first 1-8 start through 9 games in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club North has gone 9 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-8 over that stretch, a school-record 9 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Flowing Wells is 17-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (17 such games).

• Club North has gone 5 straight games allowing 8.0+ yards per attempt (September 25, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 0-5 over that stretch, a school-record 5 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Series This week's meeting is the 2nd time in 3 all-time meetings in which one of the two teams enters unbeaten — in 2025, Flowing Wells entered 2-0 (Flowing Wells won 48-8).

• Club Flowing Wells has allowed 132 points over its last 4 games (33.0 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 30, 2026) -- its 5th-highest 4-game total on record; the most is 159, from September 21, 2023 through October 20, 2023.

• Club North has allowed 138 points over its last 3 games (46.0 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its 3rd-highest 3-game total on record; the most is 160, from October 7, 2022 through October 28, 2022.

• Club Flowing Wells has gone 4 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards (October 9, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 0-4 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (9 games).

• Series Flowing Wells leads the all-time series with North 2-0, across 2 meetings dating to 2025, and has won 2 straight in the series -- most recently 42-0 on September 11, 2026.

• Player Trenton Plumley has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Flowing Wells, over a 19-game career on record. His career high is 7, set September 12, 2025 against North (W, 48-8).

• Player Marty Hudecek Jr has gone 7 straight games without running for a touchdown. The last time he ran for a touchdown was September 26, 2025 against Carl Hayden Community (W, 63-0) — 2 rushing TDs.

NOR — STAT LEADERS
FULL ROSTER ↓
OFFENSE
PASSING LEADER
260PASS YDS
C-ATT16-26
COMP%61.5%
YPA10.0
TD2
INT1
QBR163.2
RUSHING LEADER
103RUSH YDS
CAR32
YPC3.2
RUSH TD0
REC1
REC YDS2
YPR2.0
REC TD0
RUSHING LEADER
22RUSH YDS
CAR17
YPC1.3
RUSH TD0
REC0
REC YDS0
YPR--
REC TD0
RECEIVING LEADER
207REC YDS
REC10
YPR20.7
REC TD2
RECEIVING LEADER
68REC YDS
REC9
YPR7.6
REC TD0
DEFENSE
TACKLES LEADER
16TCKL
TFL4
SACKS2
INT0
PD0
FF2
TACKLES LEADER
15TCKL
TFL0
SACKS0
INT0
PD1
FF1
TACKLES LEADER
14TCKL
TFL2
SACKS0
INT0
PD0
FF0
TFL LEADER
4TFL
TCKL12
SACKS1
INT0
PD0
FF0
TFL LEADER
2TFL
TCKL6
SACKS1
INT0
PD0
FF0
INTERCEPTIONS LEADER
1INT
TCKL12
TFL0
SACKS0
PD1
FF0
FW — STAT LEADERS
FULL ROSTER ↓
DEFENSE
TACKLES LEADER
11TCKL
TFL0
SACKS0
INT0
PD0
FF0
TACKLES LEADER
8TCKL
TFL0
SACKS0
INT0
PD0
FF0
TACKLES LEADER
7TCKL
TFL0
SACKS0
INT0
PD0
FF0
NORTH — 2026 SEASON SCHEDULE
DATEOPPONENTSITERESULTSCOREWIN%
08/28PARADISE VALLEYvsL0-35
09/04CASA GRANDEvsL0-54
09/11FLOWING WELLSatL0-42
09/18WEST POINTatW21-7
09/25GOLDWATERatL7-63
10/02CENTRALvsL0-54
10/09FAIRFAXatL6-35
10/16ACADEMIES OF SOUTH MOUNTAINvsL7-50
10/23CAMELBACKatL27-53
SEASON RESULT1-8MISSED PLAYOFFS

Season complete at 1-8 with no games on file beyond a normal 10-game regular season -- read as no postseason appearance. This library still has no playoff-round/bracket source, so this label comes from game count alone, not a confirmed bracket result.

FLOWING WELLS — 2026 SEASON SCHEDULE
DATEOPPONENTSITERESULTSCOREWIN%
08/28DOUGLASatL14-21
09/04AMPHITHEATERvsW40-7
09/11NORTHvsW42-0
09/18MARICOPAatL20-61
09/25CARL HAYDEN COMMUNITYatW54-0
10/02NOGALESvsW6-0
10/09MOUNTAIN VIEWvsL0-29
10/16CIENEGAatL6-47
10/23SUNNYSIDEatL0-8
10/30DESERT VIEWvsL0-48
SEASON RESULT4-6MISSED PLAYOFFS

Season complete at 4-6 with no games on file beyond a normal 10-game regular season -- read as no postseason appearance. This library still has no playoff-round/bracket source, so this label comes from game count alone, not a confirmed bracket result.

TALKING POINTS (14 storylines)
NOR IS LIKELIEST TO BEAT FW IF...

• NOR forces 1+ takeaways (.250), but most recently lost to Asmhs when doing so

• NOR commits 2+ giveaways (.167), but most recently lost to Camelback when doing so

• NOR holds FW under 200 passing yards (.000), but most recently lost to Fairfax when doing so

FW IS LIKELIEST TO BEAT NOR IF...

• FW holds NOR under 6.0 yards per play (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so

• FW holds NOR under 100 rushing yards (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so

• FW holds NOR under 5.0 yards per carry (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so

• FW's defense has averaged 158.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 76.8 pass yards per game. (+107%)

• NOR's offense has failed to reach 150 rush yds in 9 straight games (08/28/2026-10/23/2026), going 1-8 over that stretch.

• NOR's offense has failed to reach 5.0 YPC in 9 straight games (08/28/2026-10/23/2026), going 1-8 over that stretch.

• NOR's offense has failed to reach 7.0 YPP in 9 straight games (08/28/2026-10/23/2026), going 1-8 over that stretch.

• FW's offense has averaged 2.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 18.2 points scored per game. (-89%)

• FW's defense has averaged 12.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 6.8 YPA. (+89%)

• NOR's offense has averaged 13.3 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 7.6 points scored per game. (+76%)

• NOR's offense has averaged 0.2 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 0.6 YPC. (-76%)

• FW's defense has averaged 10.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 6.8 YPP. (+59%)

MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)

NOR -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(top 5 of 12 scored; vs 1833 cached team(s))

#SIDECONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRKSCORE
1OFFYPC < 51-8.1117.6L50.789
2OFFYPP < 71-8.1117.6L50.779
3OFFRush Yds < 1501-8.1117.6L50.779
4DEFTurnovers < 31-8.11143.7L50.757
5OFFRush Yds < 1001-7.1255.1L40.630

FW -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(top 5 of 5 scored; vs 1833 cached team(s))

#SIDECONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRKSCORE
1OFFRush Yds 100+4-4.50020.2L30.770
2DEFPass Yds < 2004-5.44419.2L30.683
3OFFTurnovers < 34-5.44418.0L40.548
4DEFTurnovers < 33-5.37526.6L30.230
5OFFPass Yds < 2003-5.37513.5L40.179
OPPONENT STRENGTH (best-effort)

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)

NOR: 1 of 9 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .400 across those game(s).

FW: 1 of 10 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .111 across those game(s).

WIN %: TWO-CONDITION COMBINATIONS (5 found, min 4 Gms each)

(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)

--- FW ---

CONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRK
FW rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards3-4.42915.4L3
FW rushes for 150+ yards but stays under 8.0 yards per attempt2-2.50016.5L1
FW averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards3-1.75037.5W3
FW averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards3-1.75037.5W3
FW holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards4-0.9991.8W4
WIN % -- TAB-SEPARATED
TeamConditionRecordWin%PPG
FWRush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 2003-4.42915.4
FWRush Yds 150+ & YPA < 8.02-2.50016.5
FWYPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+3-1.75037.5
FWYPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+3-1.75037.5
FWRush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 2004-0.9991.8
PREGAME NOTES

The next meeting brings together North (1-8 this season) and Flowing Wells (4-6). The SP Strength Index has North at #265 and Flowing Wells at #192 of 276 in the AZ section. Flowing Wells leads the recent series 2-0 over the last 2 meetings. In the most recent meeting, on September 11, 2026, Flowing Wells pulled away 42-0.

Having dropped 6 of its last 7 entering play, North's rushing offense has been the soft spot (held under 200 rushing yards in 5 straight, 0-5 in that stretch). It showed again last time out, the Mustangs falling to Camelback 53-27. Having dropped 5 of its last 7 entering play, Flowing Wells' pass defense has been the team's calling card (held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 9 of its last 10, 4-6 in that stretch). Last time out, though, the Caballeros fell to Desert View 48-0.

The matchup within the matchup pairs North's passing attack with Flowing Wells' pass defense. North's passing attack has been playing at a high level over the Mustangs' last 7 games. Despite throwing for 200+ yards in only 2 of the 7 games, the offense has averaged 138.3 passing yards per game (including a high of 260 in that span vs. West Point). That is 165% above the Mustangs' baseline of 52.2 yards per game over the 5 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Mustangs have gone 1-6 in that stretch. They'll face a stiff test when the two meet. Flowing Wells' pass defense has been playing at a high level over the Caballeros' last 10 games. The defense has held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 9 of the 10 games while averaging 76.8 passing yards allowed per game (including a low of -2 in that span vs. Carl Hayden Community). That is 43% below the Caballeros' baseline of 134.5 yards per game over the 10 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Caballeros have gone 4-6 in that stretch.

STORYLINES

WEAKNESS VS. STRENGTH — North has an uncomfortable assignment when the two meet. North's pass protection has been a real vulnerability over the Mustangs' last 7 games, dating back to last season. The offensive line has conceded at least 1 sack in 6 of the 7 games while averaging 2.4 sacks allowed per game (including a high of 5 in that span vs. Casa Grande). That is 60% above the Mustangs' baseline of 1.5 per game over the 12 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Mustangs have gone 2-5 in that stretch. Across the line, Flowing Wells' pass rush has been playing at a high level over the Caballeros' last 10 games, dating back to last season. The defense has recorded 3+ sacks in 5 of the 10 games while averaging 2.2 sacks per game (including a high of 5 in that span vs. Carl Hayden Community). That is 120% above the Caballeros' baseline of 1.0 per game over the 12 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Caballeros have gone 5-5 in that stretch.

WEAKNESS VS. WEAKNESS — Something has to give when the two meet. North's rushing offense has been a real vulnerability over the Mustangs' last 5 games. The ground game has failed to reach 200 rushing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 13.2 rushing yards per game (including a low of -26 in that span vs. Goldwater). That is 82% below the Mustangs' baseline of 72.3 yards per game over the 6 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Mustangs have gone 0-5 in that stretch. On the other side, Flowing Wells' rush defense has been a real vulnerability over the Caballeros' last 5 games. The defense has conceded 100+ rushing yards in 4 of the 5 games while averaging 216.8 rushing yards allowed per game (including a high of 443 in that span vs. Cienega). That is 24% above the Caballeros' baseline of 174.5 yards per game over the 15 games prior — a clear jump; the Caballeros have gone 1-4 in that stretch.

ONE-SIDED — North has managed just 2 takeaways in the Mustangs' last 5 games — the Mustangs have gone 0-5 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Flowing Wells. Flowing Wells has averaged 1.2 per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Flowing Wells' rushing offense has been a real vulnerability over the Caballeros' last 5 games. The ground game has failed to reach 200 rushing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 123.0 rushing yards per game (including a low of 13 in that span vs. Desert View). That is 53% below the Caballeros' baseline of 263.8 yards per game over the 16 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Caballeros have gone 1-4 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets North. North has averaged 197.3 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

NOR — OFFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+1-01.00021.0W1
YPA < 8.00-8.0005.9L8
Pass Yds 200+1-1.50014.0L1
Pass Yds < 2000-7.0005.7L7
Rush Yds 100+0-1.00027.0L1
Rush Yds < 1001-7.1255.1L4
Rush Yds 150+--------
Rush Yds < 1501-8.1117.6L5
YPC 5.0+--------
YPC < 5.01-8.1117.6L5
YPP 6.0+1-01.00021.0W1
YPP < 6.00-8.0005.9L8
YPP 7.0+--------
YPP < 7.01-8.1117.6L5
Turnovers 1+1-6.1437.9L3
Turnovers < 10-2.0006.5L2
Turnovers 2+1-5.1678.0L2
Turnovers > 20-3.0009.0L3
FW — OFFENSE (10 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+1-1.50031.0L1
YPA < 8.02-5.2869.4L4 1 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+0-1.00020.0L1
Pass Yds < 2003-5.37513.5L4 1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+4-4.50020.2L3
Rush Yds < 1000-2.00010.0L2
Rush Yds 150+4-2.66727.0L1
Rush Yds < 1500-4.0005.0L4
YPC 5.0+3-1.75037.5W3
YPC < 5.01-5.1675.3L4
YPP 6.0+3-1.75037.5W3
YPP < 6.01-5.1675.3L4
YPP 7.0+3-1.75037.5W3
YPP < 7.01-5.1675.3L4
Turnovers 1+0-4.0008.5L4
Turnovers < 14-2.66724.7L2
Turnovers 2+0-3.0006.7L3
Turnovers > 20-1.00020.0L1
NOR — DEFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+0-8.00048.2L8
YPA < 8.0-------- 1 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+0-3.00046.0L3
Pass Yds < 2000-5.00049.6L5 1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+0-8.00048.2L8
Rush Yds < 100-------- 1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+0-6.00050.2L6
Rush Yds < 1500-2.00042.5L2 1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+0-8.00048.2L8
YPC < 5.0-------- 1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+0-8.00048.2L8
YPP < 6.0-------- 1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+0-8.00048.2L8
YPP < 7.0-------- 1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+1-3.25031.8L2
Turnovers < 10-5.00053.2L5
Turnovers 2+1-1.50021.0W1
Turnovers > 2--------
FW — DEFENSE (10 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+0-3.00052.0L3
YPA < 8.04-3.5719.3L2
Pass Yds 200+0-1.00048.0L1
Pass Yds < 2004-5.44419.2L3
Rush Yds 100+1-6.14331.6L5
Rush Yds < 1003-01.0000.0W3
Rush Yds 150+0-5.00033.2L5
Rush Yds < 1504-1.80011.0L1
YPC 5.0+1-6.14331.6L5
YPC < 5.03-01.0000.0W3
YPP 6.0+0-6.00035.7L6
YPP < 6.04-01.0001.8W4
YPP 7.0+0-4.00041.0L4
YPP < 7.04-2.6679.5L1
Turnovers 1+4-3.5719.3L2
Turnovers < 10-3.00052.0L3
Turnovers 2+2-3.40011.6L2
Turnovers > 21-1.5004.0L1
NOR — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Scores <100-7.0002.9
Scores 10-19------
Scores 20-291-1.50024.0
Scores 30-39------
Scores 40+------
NOR — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Allows <101-01.0007.0
Allows 10-19------
Allows 20-29------
Allows 30-390-2.00035.0
Allows 40+0-6.00052.7
FW — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION (10 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Scores <101-4.2002.4
Scores 10-190-1.00014.0
Scores 20-290-1.00020.0
Scores 30-39------
Scores 40+3-01.00045.3
FW — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION (10 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Allows <104-1.8003.0
Allows 10-19------
Allows 20-290-2.00025.0
Allows 30-39------
Allows 40+0-3.00052.0
ON THE BRINK

NORTH

• NORTH has lost by 20+ in 5 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 6 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• NORTH has allowed 30+ in 5 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 6 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• NORTH has allowed 250+ passing in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• NORTH has lost 5 straight (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 6 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

FLOWING WELLS

• FLOWING WELLS has been held under 14 in 5 straight games (10/2/26–10/30/26). It has not reached 6 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• FLOWING WELLS has lost 4 straight (10/9/26–10/30/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• FLOWING WELLS has committed 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

TAB-SEPARATED (paste into a spreadsheet)
TeamSideSplitGamesRecordWin%PPGStrk
NOROFFENSEYPA 8.0+11-01.00021.0W1
NOROFFENSEYPA < 8.080-8.0005.9L8
NOROFFENSEPass Yds 200+21-1.50014.0L1
NOROFFENSEPass Yds < 20070-7.0005.7L7
NOROFFENSERush Yds 100+10-1.00027.0L1
NOROFFENSERush Yds < 10081-7.1255.1L4
NOROFFENSERush Yds < 15091-8.1117.6L5
NOROFFENSEYPC < 5.091-8.1117.6L5
NOROFFENSEYPP 6.0+11-01.00021.0W1
NOROFFENSEYPP < 6.080-8.0005.9L8
NOROFFENSEYPP < 7.091-8.1117.6L5
NOROFFENSETurnovers 1+71-6.1437.9L3
NOROFFENSETurnovers < 120-2.0006.5L2
NOROFFENSETurnovers 2+61-5.1678.0L2
NOROFFENSETurnovers > 230-3.0009.0L3
NOROFFENSEScores <1070-7.0002.9L7
NOROFFENSEScores 20-2921-1.50024.0L1
NORDEFENSEYPA 8.0+80-8.00048.2L8
NORDEFENSEPass Yds 200+30-3.00046.0L3
NORDEFENSEPass Yds < 20050-5.00049.6L5
NORDEFENSERush Yds 100+80-8.00048.2L8
NORDEFENSERush Yds 150+60-6.00050.2L6
NORDEFENSERush Yds < 15020-2.00042.5L2
NORDEFENSEYPC 5.0+80-8.00048.2L8
NORDEFENSEYPP 6.0+80-8.00048.2L8
NORDEFENSEYPP 7.0+80-8.00048.2L8
NORDEFENSETurnovers 1+41-3.25031.8L2
NORDEFENSETurnovers < 150-5.00053.2L5
NORDEFENSETurnovers 2+21-1.50021.0W1
NORDEFENSEAllows <1011-01.0007.0W1
NORDEFENSEAllows 30-3920-2.00035.0L2
NORDEFENSEAllows 40+60-6.00052.7L6
FWOFFENSEYPA 8.0+21-1.50031.0L1
FWOFFENSEYPA < 8.072-5.2869.4L4
FWOFFENSEPass Yds 200+10-1.00020.0L1
FWOFFENSEPass Yds < 20083-5.37513.5L4
FWOFFENSERush Yds 100+84-4.50020.2L3
FWOFFENSERush Yds < 10020-2.00010.0L2
FWOFFENSERush Yds 150+64-2.66727.0L1
FWOFFENSERush Yds < 15040-4.0005.0L4
FWOFFENSEYPC 5.0+43-1.75037.5W3
FWOFFENSEYPC < 5.061-5.1675.3L4
FWOFFENSEYPP 6.0+43-1.75037.5W3
FWOFFENSEYPP < 6.061-5.1675.3L4
FWOFFENSEYPP 7.0+43-1.75037.5W3
FWOFFENSEYPP < 7.061-5.1675.3L4
FWOFFENSETurnovers 1+40-4.0008.5L4
FWOFFENSETurnovers < 164-2.66724.7L2
FWOFFENSETurnovers 2+30-3.0006.7L3
FWOFFENSETurnovers > 210-1.00020.0L1
FWOFFENSEScores <1051-4.2002.4L4
FWOFFENSEScores 10-1910-1.00014.0L1
FWOFFENSEScores 20-2910-1.00020.0L1
FWOFFENSEScores 40+33-01.00045.3W3
FWDEFENSEYPA 8.0+30-3.00052.0L3
FWDEFENSEYPA < 8.074-3.5719.3L2
FWDEFENSEPass Yds 200+10-1.00048.0L1
FWDEFENSEPass Yds < 20094-5.44419.2L3
FWDEFENSERush Yds 100+71-6.14331.6L5
FWDEFENSERush Yds < 10033-01.0000.0W3
FWDEFENSERush Yds 150+50-5.00033.2L5
FWDEFENSERush Yds < 15054-1.80011.0L1
FWDEFENSEYPC 5.0+71-6.14331.6L5
FWDEFENSEYPC < 5.033-01.0000.0W3
FWDEFENSEYPP 6.0+60-6.00035.7L6
FWDEFENSEYPP < 6.044-01.0001.8W4
FWDEFENSEYPP 7.0+40-4.00041.0L4
FWDEFENSEYPP < 7.064-2.6679.5L1
FWDEFENSETurnovers 1+74-3.5719.3L2
FWDEFENSETurnovers < 130-3.00052.0L3
FWDEFENSETurnovers 2+52-3.40011.6L2
FWDEFENSETurnovers > 221-1.5004.0L1
FWDEFENSEAllows <1054-1.8003.0L1
FWDEFENSEAllows 20-2920-2.00025.0L2
FWDEFENSEAllows 40+30-3.00052.0L3
STREAKS: NOR (combined OFFENSE+DEFENSE)
SIDESPLITSTREAKDATESRECORD
OFFENSERush Yds < 1509 games08/28/2026 - 10/23/20261-8
OFFENSEYPC < 5.09 games08/28/2026 - 10/23/20261-8
OFFENSEYPP < 7.09 games08/28/2026 - 10/23/20261-8
OFFENSEYPA < 8.05 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
OFFENSEYPP < 6.05 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
DEFENSEYPA 8.0+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
DEFENSERush Yds 100+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
DEFENSEYPC 5.0+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
DEFENSEYPP 6.0+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
DEFENSEYPP 7.0+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
STREAKS: FW (combined OFFENSE+DEFENSE)
SIDESPLITSTREAKDATESRECORD
OFFENSEYPA < 8.05 games10/02/2026 - 10/30/20261-4
OFFENSEPass Yds < 2005 games10/02/2026 - 10/30/20261-4
OFFENSEYPC < 5.05 games10/02/2026 - 10/30/20261-4
OFFENSEYPP < 6.05 games10/02/2026 - 10/30/20261-4
OFFENSEYPP < 7.05 games10/02/2026 - 10/30/20261-4
DEFENSERush Yds 100+4 games10/09/2026 - 10/30/20260-4
DEFENSEYPC 5.0+4 games10/09/2026 - 10/30/20260-4
DEFENSEYPP 6.0+4 games10/09/2026 - 10/30/20260-4
DEFENSEYPP 7.0+3 games10/16/2026 - 10/30/20260-3
STREAKS — ALL TEAMS
TeamSideSplitStreakDatesRecord
NOROFFENSERush Yds < 1509 games08/28/2026 - 10/23/20261-8
NOROFFENSEYPC < 5.09 games08/28/2026 - 10/23/20261-8
NOROFFENSEYPP < 7.09 games08/28/2026 - 10/23/20261-8
NOROFFENSEYPA < 8.05 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
NOROFFENSEYPP < 6.05 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
NORDEFENSEYPA 8.0+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
NORDEFENSERush Yds 100+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
NORDEFENSEYPC 5.0+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
NORDEFENSEYPP 6.0+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
NORDEFENSEYPP 7.0+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/23/20260-5
FWOFFENSEYPA < 8.05 games10/02/2026 - 10/30/20261-4
FWOFFENSEPass Yds < 2005 games10/02/2026 - 10/30/20261-4
FWOFFENSEYPC < 5.05 games10/02/2026 - 10/30/20261-4
FWOFFENSEYPP < 6.05 games10/02/2026 - 10/30/20261-4
FWOFFENSEYPP < 7.05 games10/02/2026 - 10/30/20261-4
FWDEFENSERush Yds 100+4 games10/09/2026 - 10/30/20260-4
FWDEFENSEYPC 5.0+4 games10/09/2026 - 10/30/20260-4
FWDEFENSEYPP 6.0+4 games10/09/2026 - 10/30/20260-4
FWDEFENSEYPP 7.0+3 games10/16/2026 - 10/30/20260-3
MATCHUP CONFLICT POINTS: NOR vs FW

Each pair of rows above is tinted by the gap between the two teams' win% in that scenario, judged for the HOME team (the bottom row):

GRAY = negligible gap (.000-.050)

PURPLE = solid gap (.051-.150)

GREEN = big gap (.151+), favoring the home team

RED = big gap (.151+), against the home team

NOR OFFENSE vs FW DEFENSE

100 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFOVER10-1.00027.0L1
FWDEFOVER71-6.14331.6L5
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFUNDER81-7.1255.1L4
FWDEFUNDER33-01.0000.0W3
150 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFUNDER91-8.1117.6L5
FWDEFUNDER54-1.80011.0L1
YPC 5.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFUNDER91-8.1117.6L5
FWDEFUNDER33-01.0000.0W3
YPA 8.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFOVER11-01.00021.0W1
FWDEFOVER30-3.00052.0L3
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFUNDER80-8.0005.9L8
FWDEFUNDER74-3.5719.3L2
200 PASS YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFOVER21-1.50014.0L1
FWDEFOVER10-1.00048.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFUNDER70-7.0005.7L7
FWDEFUNDER94-5.44419.2L3
0 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFZERO20-2.0006.5L2
FWDEFZERO30-3.00052.0L3
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFOVER71-6.1437.9L3
FWDEFOVER74-3.5719.3L2
2+ TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFOVER61-5.1678.0L2
FWDEFOVER52-3.40011.6L2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFUNDER30-3.0006.7L3
FWDEFUNDER52-3.40032.6L2
>2 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFOVER30-3.0009.0L3
FWDEFOVER21-1.5004.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFUNDER61-5.1676.8L4
FWDEFUNDER83-5.37526.6L3
YPP 6.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFOVER11-01.00021.0W1
FWDEFOVER60-6.00035.7L6
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFUNDER80-8.0005.9L8
FWDEFUNDER44-01.0001.8W4
YPP 7.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NOROFFUNDER91-8.1117.6L5
FWDEFUNDER64-2.6679.5L1

FW OFFENSE vs NOR DEFENSE

100 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFOVER80-8.00048.2L8
FWOFFOVER84-4.50020.2L3
150 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFOVER60-6.00050.2L6
FWOFFOVER64-2.66727.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFUNDER20-2.00042.5L2
FWOFFUNDER40-4.0005.0L4
YPC 5.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFOVER80-8.00048.2L8
FWOFFOVER43-1.75037.5W3
YPA 8.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFOVER80-8.00048.2L8
FWOFFOVER21-1.50031.0L1
200 PASS YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFOVER30-3.00046.0L3
FWOFFOVER10-1.00020.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFUNDER50-5.00049.6L5
FWOFFUNDER83-5.37513.5L4
0 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFZERO50-5.00053.2L5
FWOFFZERO64-2.66724.7L2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFOVER41-3.25031.8L2
FWOFFOVER40-4.0008.5L4
2+ TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFOVER21-1.50021.0W1
FWOFFOVER30-3.0006.7L3
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFUNDER70-7.00050.1L7
FWOFFUNDER74-3.57123.1L2
>2 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFUNDER91-8.11143.7L5
FWOFFUNDER94-5.44418.0L4
YPP 6.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFOVER80-8.00048.2L8
FWOFFOVER43-1.75037.5W3
YPP 7.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
NORDEFOVER80-8.00048.2L8
FWOFFOVER43-1.75037.5W3

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

NOTABLE TRENDS (28 of 28 found, team |deviation| >= 20%, matchup |deviation| >= 20%)

NOR OFFENSE

NOR's offense has averaged 13.3 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 7.6 points scored per game. (+76%)

NOR's offense has averaged 0.2 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 0.6 YPC. (-76%)

NOR's offense has averaged 161.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 109.7 pass yards per game. (+47%)

NOR's offense has averaged 187.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 129.9 total yards per game. (+44%)

NOR's offense has averaged 4.3 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 3.1 YPP. (+36%)

NOR's offense has averaged 13.2 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 20.2 rush yards per game. (-35%)

NOR's offense has averaged 5.9 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 4.5 YPA. (+32%)

NOR's offense has averaged 1.6 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 2.2 giveaways per game. (-28%)

FW OFFENSE

FW's offense has averaged 2.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 18.2 points scored per game. (-89%)

FW's offense has averaged 3.1 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 6.6 YPC. (-52%)

FW's offense has averaged 3.5 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 6.8 YPP. (-49%)

FW's offense has averaged 1.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 0.9 giveaways per game. (+48%)

FW's offense has averaged 105.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 178.4 rush yards per game. (-41%)

FW's offense has averaged 156.3 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 249.0 total yards per game. (-37%)

FW's offense has averaged 3.8 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 6.1 YPA. (-37%)

FW's offense has averaged 51.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 78.4 pass yards per game. (-35%)

NOR DEFENSE

NOR's defense has averaged 0.4 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 0.7 takeaways per game. (-40%)

NOR's defense has averaged 267.3 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 204.0 pass yards per game. (+31%)

NOR's defense has averaged 139.7 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 202.5 rush yards per game. (-31%)

NOR's defense has averaged 7.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 10.3 YPC. (-30%)

FW DEFENSE

FW's defense has averaged 158.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 76.8 pass yards per game. (+107%)

FW's defense has averaged 12.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 6.8 YPA. (+89%)

FW's defense has averaged 10.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 6.8 YPP. (+59%)

FW's defense has averaged 34.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 22.1 points allowed per game. (+55%)

FW's defense has averaged 405.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 266.2 total yards per game. (+52%)

FW's defense has averaged 10.4 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 7.0 YPC. (+50%)

FW's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 1.5 takeaways per game. (-33%)

FW's defense has averaged 246.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 189.4 rush yards per game. (+30%)

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 2, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

APPENDIX

Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.

Explanatory Notes

Note 1 -- GAME PROJECTION -- FULL DETAIL (report pages 1-2)

Library-native projection: computed directly from the game library (slate_projection.SlateEngine), not the Excel workbook engine. This section does not yet include: an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only).

Note 2 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored

Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.

Note 3 -- OPPONENT STRENGTH (best-effort) -- why this is often empty

Only meaningful for a game against an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team on this workbook -- with just a couple of teams tracked, that's rare (mainly a direct matchup between them, if this run covers both); every other opponent has no win% on file here at all, so most of a team's schedule simply has no strength data to show.

Full Data Exports

Data Export 1 -- MATCHUP CONFLICTS — TAB-SEPARATED (13 columns)

Team1Side1Split1Record1Win%1PPG1Team2Side2Split2Record2Win%2PPG2Relevance
NOROFFENSEYPP < 6.00-8.0005.9FWDEFENSEYPP 6.0+0-6.00035.71.000
NOROFFENSEYPA < 8.00-8.0005.9FWDEFENSEYPA 8.0+0-3.00052.01.000
FWOFFENSERush Yds < 1000-2.00010.0NORDEFENSERush Yds 100+0-8.00048.21.000
FWOFFENSERush Yds < 1500-4.0005.0NORDEFENSERush Yds 150+0-6.00050.21.000
FWOFFENSETurnovers 1+0-4.0008.5NORDEFENSETurnovers < 10-5.00053.21.000
NOROFFENSEPass Yds < 2000-7.0005.7FWDEFENSEPass Yds 200+0-1.00048.01.000
FWOFFENSEPass Yds 200+0-1.00020.0NORDEFENSEPass Yds < 2000-5.00049.61.000
NOROFFENSEYPP 6.0+1-01.00021.0FWDEFENSEYPP < 6.04-01.0001.81.000
NOROFFENSERush Yds 100+0-1.00027.0FWDEFENSERush Yds < 1003-01.0000.01.000
NOROFFENSERush Yds < 1501-8.1117.6FWDEFENSERush Yds 150+0-5.00033.20.889
NOROFFENSEYPP < 7.01-8.1117.6FWDEFENSEYPP 7.0+0-4.00041.00.889
NOROFFENSETurnovers 1+1-6.1437.9FWDEFENSETurnovers < 10-3.00052.00.857
FWOFFENSEYPC < 5.01-5.1675.3NORDEFENSEYPC 5.0+0-8.00048.20.833
FWOFFENSEYPP < 6.01-5.1675.3NORDEFENSEYPP 6.0+0-8.00048.20.833
FWOFFENSEYPP < 7.01-5.1675.3NORDEFENSEYPP 7.0+0-8.00048.20.833
NOROFFENSEYPC < 5.01-8.1117.6FWDEFENSEYPC 5.0+1-6.14331.60.746
NOROFFENSERush Yds < 1001-7.1255.1FWDEFENSERush Yds 100+1-6.14331.60.732
FWOFFENSEYPA < 8.02-5.2869.4NORDEFENSEYPA 8.0+0-8.00048.20.714
FWOFFENSERush Yds 150+4-2.66727.0NORDEFENSERush Yds < 1500-2.00042.50.667
FWOFFENSEPass Yds < 2003-5.37513.5NORDEFENSEPass Yds 200+0-3.00046.00.625
NOROFFENSETurnovers < 10-2.0006.5FWDEFENSETurnovers 1+4-3.5719.30.571
NOROFFENSEYPA 8.0+1-01.00021.0FWDEFENSEYPA < 8.04-3.5719.30.571
FWOFFENSETurnovers < 14-2.66724.7NORDEFENSETurnovers 1+1-3.25031.80.417
NOROFFENSEPass Yds 200+1-1.50014.0FWDEFENSEPass Yds < 2004-5.44419.20.056

Data Export 2 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)

TeamSideTypeStatOpponentWindow/MeetingsValueBaselineGamesBaselineAvgDeviation
FWDEFENSEteamPass Yardslast 3158.71076.8+106.6%
FWOFFENSEteamPass Yardslast 351.0978.4-35.0%
FWDEFENSEteamPointslast 334.31022.1+55.4%
FWOFFENSEteamPointslast 32.01018.2-89.0%
FWDEFENSEteamRush Yardslast 3246.310189.4+30.1%
FWOFFENSEteamRush Yardslast 3105.310178.4-41.0%
FWDEFENSEteamTotal Yardslast 3405.010266.2+52.1%
FWOFFENSEteamTotal Yardslast 3156.310249.0-37.2%
FWDEFENSEteamTurnoverslast 31.0101.5-33.3%
FWOFFENSEteamTurnoverslast 31.3100.9+48.1%
FWDEFENSEteamYPAlast 312.7106.8+88.5%
FWOFFENSEteamYPAlast 53.896.1-36.9%
FWDEFENSEteamYPClast 310.4107.0+49.6%
FWOFFENSEteamYPClast 33.1106.6-52.5%
FWDEFENSEteamYPPlast 310.9106.8+59.3%
FWOFFENSEteamYPPlast 33.5106.8-48.8%
NORDEFENSEteamPass Yardslast 3267.38204.0+31.0%
NOROFFENSEteamPass Yardslast 3161.09109.7+46.8%
NOROFFENSEteamPointslast 313.397.6+76.5%
NORDEFENSEteamRush Yardslast 3139.78202.5-31.0%
NOROFFENSEteamRush Yardslast 513.2920.2-34.7%
NOROFFENSEteamTotal Yardslast 3187.09129.9+44.0%
NORDEFENSEteamTurnoverslast 50.490.7-40.0%
NOROFFENSEteamTurnoverslast 51.692.2-28.0%
NOROFFENSEteamYPAlast 35.994.5+32.3%
NORDEFENSEteamYPClast 37.2810.3-29.8%
NOROFFENSEteamYPClast 50.290.6-75.8%
NOROFFENSEteamYPPlast 34.393.1+35.6%
NOR — ROSTER (56) 26-27
#NAMEPOSCLASS
QUARTERBACKS
1TRE HEAVENS
PASS 9/17 · 52.9% · 34 YDS · 2.0 YPA · 0 TD · 2 INT · 8.5/G
RUSH 28 CAR · 17 YDS · 0.6 YPC · 0 TD · 4.2/G
DEF 12 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
QBSr.
6JACOB CHAVEZ
PASS 16/26 · 61.5% · 260 YDS · 10.0 YPA · 2 TD · 1 INT · 260.0/G
RUSH 5 CAR · -6 YDS · -1.2 YPC · 1 TD · -6.0/G
QBJr.
19JOSH LISTER
PASS 2/11 · 18.2% · 8 YDS · 0.7 YPA · 0 TD · 2 INT · 2.7/G
RUSH 1 CAR · -15 YDS · -15.0 YPC · 0 TD · -5.0/G
QBSo.
RUNNING BACKS
8AIDEN GALAVIZ
RUSH 32 CAR · 103 YDS · 3.2 YPC · 0 TD · 25.8/G
REC 1 REC · 2 YDS · 2.0 YPC · 0 TD · 0.5/G
DEF 16 TKL · 4.0 TKL/G · 4 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
RBSr.
RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS
2KOA WILLIAMS
RUSH 2 CAR · -3 YDS · -1.5 YPC · 0 TD · -1.5/G
REC 9 REC · 68 YDS · 7.6 YPC · 0 TD · 34.0/G
WRSo.
9WILMER PEREZ
RUSH 1 CAR · 3 YDS · 3.0 YPC · 0 TD · 0.8/G
REC 10 REC · 207 YDS · 20.7 YPC · 2 TD · 51.8/G
DEF 3 TKL · 0.8 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRSr.
12LEO ADAME
REC 1 REC · 3 YDS · 3.0 YPC · 0 TD · 3.0/G
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRSr.
30CHARLES SYNTAX
RUSH 1 CAR · -5 YDS · -5.0 YPC · 0 TD · -5.0/G
REC 1 REC · -3 YDS · -3.0 YPC · 0 TD · -3.0/G
WRSo.
33LUIS LIRA
REC 1 REC · 5 YDS · 5.0 YPC · 0 TD · 5.0/G
WRFr.
OFFENSIVE LINE
64JESUS DUARTE
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLJr.
70JOSH DEANDA
DEF 12 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 4 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLSr.
DEFENSIVE LINE
4BLESS IRUMVA
REC 2 REC · 22 YDS · 11.0 YPC · 0 TD · 7.3/G
DEF 4 TKL · 1.3 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLSr.
44KASHMAREE PATTERSON
RUSH 17 CAR · 22 YDS · 1.3 YPC · 0 TD · 5.5/G
DEF 14 TKL · 3.5 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DEJr.
51LUIS SALAS
DEF 9 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DESo.
56IVAN SANCHEZ
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLSr.
LINEBACKERS
3ALEXANDER AVILA
DEF 10 TKL · 3.3 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSr.
14VICENTE BRACAMONTE
DEF 13 TKL · 4.3 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSr.
26JUNIOR MARTINEZ
DEF 5 TKL · 2.5 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSo.
40SONNY ROMERO
DEF 2 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBJr.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
5GREGORY ARVALOO
DEF 15 TKL · 3.8 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
CBSo.
20JOSE AVALOS
DEF 3 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBSr.
23ARI OAKLEY
REC 1 REC · -1 YDS · -1.0 YPC · 0 TD · -0.3/G
DEF 7 TKL · 2.3 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
SSo.
42MARIO SALAZAR-GALINDO
DEF 6 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBJr.
OTHER / UNLISTED POSITION
58NASIR STEVENS
DEF 6 TKL · 6.0 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Fr.
ON STAT SHEETS, NOT ON THE POSTED ROSTER
--G. EVENS
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
----
FW — ROSTER (38) 26-27
#NAMEPOSCLASS
RUNNING BACKS
32MATTHEW TRUJILLO
DEF 6 TKL · 6.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
RBSo.
RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS
10TRENTON PLUMLEY
DEF 4 TKL · 4.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRSr.
11XAVIER GALLIGAN
DEF 11 TKL · 11.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
TESr.
OFFENSIVE LINE
52DILAN LEON ELENES
DEF 3 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
TSo.
LINEBACKERS
42DAVID GREESON
DEF 8 TKL · 8.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLBSr.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
5JAIDEN DEMARY
DEF 4 TKL · 4.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
CBSr.
7EZEKIEL SOTO
DEF 2 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
FSJr.
OTHER / UNLISTED POSITION
3COLTEN GILLMORE
DEF 4 TKL · 4.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
12MARQUISE BUSCH
DEF 3 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
23ELIJAH HERNANDEZ
DEF 3 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Sr.
24MARTY HUDECEK JR
DEF 7 TKL · 7.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
54ORLANDO LERMA CORALES
DEF 4 TKL · 4.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Sr.
55AURELIO MERIN
DEF 6 TKL · 6.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
68FRANKIE DANIEL-EQUIHUA
DEF 3 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
72ALEX RENTERIA
DEF 2 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--So.
ON STAT SHEETS, NOT ON THE POSTED ROSTER
--SETH MCGINNIS
DEF 2 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
----
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED 11/13/2026 10:52