In short: Manatee (6-4) at Plant (5-5), August 21, 2026 (high school football). Final: Plant 33, Manatee 26. The full report has the projection, unit grades, storylines, pregame notes, Big Game Watch, series history, season stats and both rosters.
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANATEE | 94.9 (+139.4) | 62.9 (+18.2) | 20.0 (+42.8) | 63.1 (-28.7) |
| PLANT | 76.4 (+48.2) | 37.2 (-38.7) | 37.8 (+13.3) | 47.4 (+2.1) |
Rank chips: 1 = best in the pool; blue strong, red weak. Yardage and efficiency use games with a full box score on file; points and turnovers use every played game. Unit Index = opponent-adjusted 0-100 league percentile.
| COMPONENT | POINTS | WEIGHT | CONTRIBUTION |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strength | +6.66 | 24% | +1.60 |
| Efficiency | +7.60 | 22% | +1.66 |
| Own Margin | +4.18 | 20% | +0.82 |
| Common Opponents | +30.44 | 18% | +5.34 |
| Head To Head | -5.44 | 17% | -0.92 |
| Garbage Time Margin | -- | 0% | +0.00 |
| EPA Efficiency | -- | 0% | +0.00 |
Mark players out to re-project this game. Each value is how much of the margin that player is worth, from this season's data (his share of his team's win shares). Estimates — your selections change only your view.
| CATEGORY | TEAM | PROJECTED |
|---|---|---|
| Passing | MANATEE | 255.2 |
| Passing | PLANT | 263.4 |
| Rushing | MANATEE | 160.2 |
| Rushing | PLANT | 115.5 |
| Total | MANATEE | 415.3 |
| Total | PLANT | 378.9 |
| MANATEE — PASSING | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| N. DOWNES | 12.8/18.7 | 68.4% | 255.2 | 13.7 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 211.8 |
| MANATEE — RUSHING | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| C. WHITE | 21.5 | 126.3 | 5.9 | 2.4 |
| C. FRASER | 7.8 | 33.9 | 4.3 | 0.4 |
| TOTALS | 29.3 | 160.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 |
| MANATEE — RECEIVING | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | REC | YDS | YPC | TD |
| E. CHRISTIAN | 4.2 | 74.2 | 17.5 | 0.0 |
| T. POWELL | 4.0 | 70.5 | 17.7 | 0.6 |
| B. GUNTER | 3.5 | 56.4 | 16.0 | 0.0 |
| C. WHITE | 3.0 | 54.1 | 18.0 | 1.0 |
| TOTALS | 14.7 | 255.2 | 17.3 | 1.6 |
| PLANT — PASSING | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| T. GOSS | 11.0/19.5 | 56.3% | 263.4 | 13.5 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 214.1 |
| PLANT — RUSHING | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| C. DICKERSON | 7.4 | 73.3 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| D. TIMMONS | 5.0 | 23.9 | 4.8 | 0.0 |
| B. MAHONE | 8.9 | 18.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| TOTALS | 21.2 | 115.5 | 5.4 | 1.0 |
| PLANT — RECEIVING | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | REC | YDS | YPC | TD |
| K. LATHEROW | 4.2 | 75.7 | 18.0 | 0.9 |
| D. HILL II | 6.0 | 70.4 | 11.7 | 0.0 |
| J. CONTE | 4.6 | 65.0 | 14.3 | 0.0 |
| C. THOMPSON JR. | 10.1 | 52.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 |
| TOTALS | 24.9 | 263.4 | 10.6 | 2.9 |
The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: Plant's yards per play allowed. The Panthers allowed 9.2 yards per play (462 yards on 50 snaps) against Manatee on 8/21, well above their 6.7 mark in every other game this season. Despite that, Plant won the game 33-26. Plant got away with it once; counting on that again would be a risk.
The Manatee defense that opened the season is not the one that has taken the field lately. Manatee forced 2.2 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #79 in section during that period. In the 6 games since that hot start (3-3), the Hurricanes have forced 1.0 takeaways per game, a 56% drop, #346 in section during that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.1 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.1 per game), Manatee forced 9% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #109 in section. On the season, Manatee ranks #209 in section in takeaways. Plant's ball security sits in the middle of the pack, #300 in section (1.3 per game).
Something changed for Plant's defense after its first 5 games. Plant forced 2.2 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #66 in section over that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Panthers have forced 1.2 takeaways per game, a 45% drop, #268 in section over that timeframe. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Plant's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.1 per game, a #170 offense in section on the season, against 1.3 per game, #272 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.1 per game), Plant forced 9% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #200 in section, well below the first 5 (#80), which makes the dip harder to excuse. On the season, Plant ranks #145 in section in takeaways. Manatee's ball security sits in the middle of the pack, #285 in section (1.3 per game).
Manatee's ground game has run the ball less effectively as the season has worn on. The Hurricanes averaged 7.8 yards per carry (1,051 yards on 135 rushes) over their first 5 games (3-2), #75 in section over that span. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), Manatee has averaged 4.8 yards per carry (419 yards on 87 rushes), a 38% drop, #380 in section in that timeframe. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.6 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.6 yards per carry), Manatee ran for 13% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #123 in section. On the season, the Hurricanes rank #177 in section in rushing. Plant's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #318 in section (6.2 yards per carry).
Plant's defense has started giving ground as the season has progressed. The Panthers allowed 19.3 points per game over their first 3 games (2-1), #246 in section in that window. In the 7 games since that hot start (3-4), Plant has allowed 27.0 points per game, a 40% rise, #352 in section during that time. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 7 opponents have been softer, averaging 27.5 points per game, a #203 offense in section on the season, against 33.9 points per game, #92 for the first 3. On the season, the Panthers rank #325 in section in scoring defense. It won't get any easier against Manatee, whose offense ranks #75 in section (35.3 points per game). Plant is 5-2 this season when it holds opponents under 36, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
One of Plant's most reliable areas lately has been its defense. Plant allowed 8.1 yards per play (2,232 yards on 275 snaps) over its first 6 games (3-3), #431 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Panthers have allowed 5.3 yards per play (987 yards on 185 snaps), a 34% drop, #98 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Plant's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.1 yards per play, a #352 offense in section on the season, against 7.8 yards per play, #147 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.1 yards per play), Plant held those offenses 12% below their usual yards per snap. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #268 in section, well below the first 6 (#65), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Plant ranks #303 in section in yards per play allowed. That form gets a real test against Manatee, whose offense ranks #106 in section (8.2 yards per play).
If there's one number to watch in this matchup, it's Plant's scoring. Plant averaged 16.8 points per game over its first 6 games (3-3), #390 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Panthers have averaged 31.5 points per game, an 87% rise, #168 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Plant's last 4 opponents have averaged 28.9 points per game, a #404 scoring defense in section on the season, against 15.2 points per game, #122 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (28.9 points per game), Plant scored 9% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #268 in section, well below the first 6 (#65), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Manatee's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Hurricanes have allowed 27.8 points per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #358 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (25.4 points per game on the season, which would rank #242). Against those norms, Manatee allowed 9% more than those offenses usually score. Manatee offers Plant a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Plant is 4-1 this season when it scores 29 or more, and 1-4 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle has the potential to swing this matchup, with the recent returns favoring Plant. Plant committed 1.8 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #382 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Panthers have committed 0.8 giveaways per game, a 56% drop, #117 in section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.6 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Plant turned it over 50% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #200 in section, well below the first 5 (#80), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Manatee's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Hurricanes have forced 1.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games (3-2), #268 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (1.2 per game on the season, which would rank #222). Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #123 in section, a strong slate. Manatee offers Plant a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
Plant averaged 3.8 yards per carry (358 yards on 94 rushes) over its first 4 games (2-2), #445 in section within that period. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 6 games since that slow start (3-3), the Panthers have averaged 6.1 yards per carry (539 yards on 88 rushes), a 61% rise, #241 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Plant's last 6 opponents have averaged 5.9 yards per carry, a #275 run defense in section on the season, against 4.4 yards per carry, #105 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #187 in section, well below the first 4 (#76), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Manatee's run defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Hurricanes have allowed 5.7 yards per carry (1,070 yards on 189 rushes) over their last 6 games (3-3), #238 in section during those games. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of rushing attacks in section (6.3 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #212). Against those norms, Manatee held those rushing attacks 11% below their usual yards per carry. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #109 in section, a strong slate. Manatee offers Plant a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
• Club Plant has gone 10 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (August 21, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 5-5 over that stretch, a school-record 10 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Manatee has gone 6 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards (September 18, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 3-3 over that stretch, a school-record 6 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Plant has gone 6 straight games holding the opponent under 200 passing yards (September 18, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 3-3 over that stretch, a school-record 6 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Manatee has won 2 straight, and a win would make it 3 in a row. The last time they won 3 or more in a row was 2026, a run of 3.
• Club Manatee has gone 6 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 18, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 3-3 over that stretch, a school-record 6 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Plant has gone 5 straight games being held under 150 rushing yards (September 25, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 2-3 over that stretch, a school-record 5 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Manatee has gone 4 straight games throwing for 200+ yards (October 2, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 2-2 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Manatee is 6-4 entering play against Plant, a start the program has had 1 time before in 5 seasons on record -- most recently 2022, which finished 6-4.
• Club Plant has gone 4 straight games holding the opponent under 7.0 yards per play (October 9, 2026 through October 30, 2026), going 2-2 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Manatee is 15-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (15 such games).
• Club Plant is 23-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (23 such games).
• Series Plant leads the all-time series with Manatee 1-0, across 1 meetings dating to 2026.
• Club Manatee has allowed 187 points over its last 6 games (31.2 a game, September 18, 2026 through October 30, 2026) -- its 5th-highest 6-game total on record; the most is 199, from October 3, 2025 through November 21, 2025.
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/21 | PLANT | at | L | 26-33 | |
| 08/28 | NAPLES | vs | W | 28-17 | |
| 09/04 | SFA | vs | W | 41-21 | |
| 09/10 | LAKE BRANTLEY | at | W | 48-27 | |
| 09/18 | RIVERVIEW SARASOTA | at | L | 47-49 | |
| 09/25 | SUMNER | at | W | 30-27 | |
| 10/02 | COLUMBIA | vs | L | 28-51 | |
| 10/09 | PALMETTO | vs | L | 14-37 | |
| 10/23 | PARRISH COMMUNITY | at | W | 49-6 | |
| 10/30 | SOUTHEAST | at | W | 42-17 | |
| SEASON RESULT | 6-4 | MISSED PLAYOFFS |
Season complete at 6-4 with no games on file beyond a normal 10-game regular season -- read as no postseason appearance. This library still has no playoff-round/bracket source, so this label comes from game count alone, not a confirmed bracket result.
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/21 | MANATEE | vs | W | 33-26 | |
| 08/28 | GAITHER | at | L | 21-24 | |
| 09/04 | HILLSBOROUGH | at | W | 34-8 | |
| 09/10 | TAMPA BAY TECH | vs | L | 0-48 | |
| 09/18 | DURANT | at | W | 13-7 | |
| 09/25 | ARMWOOD | vs | L | 0-56 | |
| 10/09 | LETO | at | W | 42-0 | |
| 10/16 | SPOTO | at | W | 48-7 | |
| 10/23 | BLOOMINGDALE | vs | L | 30-36 | |
| 10/30 | SUMNER | vs | L | 6-35 | |
| SEASON RESULT | 5-5 | MISSED PLAYOFFS |
Season complete at 5-5 with no games on file beyond a normal 10-game regular season -- read as no postseason appearance. This library still has no playoff-round/bracket source, so this label comes from game count alone, not a confirmed bracket result.
• PLA holds its opponents under 159.0 rushing yards (PLA's own median) (.999)
• MAN's defense has conceded 100+ rush yds in 6 straight games (09/18/2026-10/30/2026), going 3-3 over that stretch.
• PLA's defense has limited opponents to under 200 pass yds in 6 straight games (09/18/2026-10/30/2026), going 3-3 over that stretch.
• MAN holds its opponents under 9.7 yards per attempt (MAN's own median) (.999)
• PLA's offense has failed to reach 150 rush yds in 5 straight games (09/25/2026-10/30/2026), going 2-3 over that stretch.
• PLA's offense has averaged 7.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 5.1 YPC. (+49%)
• MAN's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 1.3 giveaways per game. (-49%)
• PLA's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 1.3 giveaways per game. (-49%)
• MAN's offense has averaged 83.8 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 10-game average is 147.0 rush yards per game. (-43%)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
MAN -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 7 scored; vs 1561 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | YPA 8+ | 6-2 | .750 | 38.9 | W3 | 0.802 |
| 2 | DEF | Turnovers 1+ | 5-3 | .625 | 28.8 | W1 | 0.619 |
| 3 | OFF | Turnovers < 3 | 5-3 | .625 | 35.5 | W2 | 0.539 |
| 4 | DEF | Rush Yds 100+ | 4-4 | .500 | 29.6 | W2 | 0.425 |
| 5 | DEF | Turnovers < 3 | 4-4 | .500 | 30.1 | W2 | 0.260 |
PLA -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 7 scored; vs 1561 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Turnovers < 3 | 5-5 | .500 | 22.7 | L2 | 0.821 |
| 2 | DEF | Pass Yds < 200 | 4-4 | .500 | 21.6 | L2 | 0.802 |
| 3 | OFF | Rush Yds < 150 | 4-5 | .444 | 23.8 | L2 | 0.713 |
| 4 | DEF | Turnovers < 3 | 4-4 | .500 | 25.5 | L1 | 0.631 |
| 5 | OFF | Turnovers 1+ | 4-5 | .444 | 19.9 | L2 | 0.490 |
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
MAN: 1 of 10 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .500 across those game(s).
PLA: 1 of 10 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .600 across those game(s).
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- MAN ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards | 4-2 | .667 | 38.8 | W2 |
| MAN averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 3-2 | .600 | 40.8 | W1 |
| MAN averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 3-2 | .600 | 40.8 | W1 |
| MAN throws for 200+ yards despite 2+ giveaways | 1-3 | .250 | 27.2 | L2 |
--- PLA ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| PLA holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards | 4-0 | .999 | 5.5 | W4 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| MAN | YPA 8.0+ & Pass Yds 200+ | 4-2 | .667 | 38.8 |
| MAN | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 3-2 | .600 | 40.8 |
| MAN | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 3-2 | .600 | 40.8 |
| MAN | Pass Yds 200+ & Turnovers 2+ | 1-3 | .250 | 27.2 |
| PLA | Rush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 200 | 4-0 | .999 | 5.5 |
The next meeting brings together Manatee (6-4 this season) and Plant (5-5). The SP Strength Index has Manatee at #69 and Plant at #132 of 583 in the FL section. Plant leads the recent series 1-0 over the last 1 meetings. In the most recent meeting, on August 21, 2026, Plant held on 33-26.
In the process of winning 4 of its last 7 entering play, Manatee's rushing offense has been the soft spot (held under 200 rushing yards in 5 straight, 3-2 in that stretch). The Hurricanes won anyway last time out, handling Southeast 42-17. Having dropped 4 of its last 7 entering play, Plant's pass defense has been the team's calling card (held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 5 straight games, 2-3 in that stretch). Last time out, though, the Panthers fell to Sumner 35-6.
The matchup within the matchup pairs Manatee's passing attack with Plant's pass defense. Manatee's passing attack has been playing at a high level over the Hurricanes' last 5 games. The offense has threw for 200+ yards in 4 of the 5 games while averaging 240.2 passing yards per game (including a high of 321 in that span vs. Parrish Community). That is 24% above the Hurricanes' baseline of 193.4 yards per game over the 7 games prior — a clear jump; the Hurricanes have gone 3-2 in that stretch. They'll face a stiff test when the two meet. Plant's pass defense has been playing at a high level over the Panthers' last 5 games. The defense has held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 102.4 passing yards allowed per game (including a low of 4 in that span vs. Leto). That is 52% below the Panthers' baseline of 211.4 yards per game over the 5 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Panthers have gone 2-3 in that stretch.
WEAKNESS VS. WEAKNESS — Something has to give when the two meet. Manatee's rush defense has been a real vulnerability over the Hurricanes' last 7 games. The defense has conceded 100+ rushing yards in 6 of the 7 games while averaging 164.7 rushing yards allowed per game (including a high of 278 in that span vs. Riverview Sarasota). That is 44% above the Hurricanes' baseline of 114.6 yards per game over the 5 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Hurricanes have gone 4-3 in that stretch. On the other side, Plant's rushing offense has been a real vulnerability over the Panthers' last 5 games. The ground game has failed to reach 200 rushing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 70.6 rushing yards per game (including a low of -4 in that span vs. Armwood). That is 35% below the Panthers' baseline of 108.8 yards per game over the 5 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Panthers have gone 2-3 in that stretch.
ONE-SIDED — Manatee's rushing offense has been a real vulnerability over the Hurricanes' last 5 games. The ground game has failed to reach 200 rushing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 83.8 rushing yards per game (including a low of 18 in that span vs. Sumner). That is 50% below the Hurricanes' baseline of 166.1 yards per game over the 7 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Hurricanes have gone 3-2 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Plant. Plant has averaged 149.6 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 6-2 | .750 | 38.9 | W3 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 21.0 | L2 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 4-4 | .500 | 34.4 | W2 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 39.0 | W2 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | W2 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | L2 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 3-2 | .600 | 40.8 | W1 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-2 | .600 | 29.8 | W1 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | W2 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | L2 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | W2 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | L2 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | W2 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | L2 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-4 | .429 | 33.4 | L2 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 39.7 | W3 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-3 | .250 | 27.2 | L2 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 34.5 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-3 | .500 | 29.0 | L1 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 13.2 | L1 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 40.5 | W2 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-5 | .375 | 18.2 | L2 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-2 | .600 | 29.0 | L1 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-3 | .400 | 16.4 | L1 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 4-5 | .444 | 23.8 | L2 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-1 | .800 | 33.2 | L1 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 12.2 | L3 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 31.2 | L1 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-3 | .250 | 10.0 | L3 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 3-2 | .600 | 34.8 | L1 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-3 | .400 | 10.6 | L2 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-5 | .444 | 19.9 | L2 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 48.0 | W1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-2 | .500 | 17.0 | W1 |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 2-4 | .333 | 37.3 | L2 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 15.2 | W4 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-4 | .333 | 36.3 | L3 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 16.8 | W4 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-4 | .500 | 29.6 | W2 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 24.0 | W2 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 3-3 | .500 | 33.0 | W1 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-1 | .750 | 21.8 | W3 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-4 | .500 | 32.8 | W1 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 11.5 | W2 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 3-4 | .429 | 35.0 | L2 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 13.3 | W3 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 3-4 | .429 | 35.0 | L2 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 13.3 | W3 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 5-3 | .625 | 28.8 | W1 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 27.5 | W1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 | W1 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 22.0 | W2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 41.5 | L3 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 13.5 | L1 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 37.0 | L1 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 4-4 | .500 | 21.6 | L2 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-5 | .286 | 33.1 | L3 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 5.0 | W3 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-5 | .167 | 37.5 | L5 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 5.5 | W4 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 3-5 | .375 | 29.9 | L2 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 | W2 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-5 | .286 | 33.1 | L3 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 5.0 | W3 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 38.5 | L3 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 15.5 | L2 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-3 | .571 | 22.9 | L2 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-2 | .333 | 29.0 | W1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 4-1 | .800 | 15.2 | L1 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 21.5 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-1 | .000 | 14.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 1-2 | .333 | 27.3 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 30.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 4-1 | .800 | 45.4 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 6.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 17.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 25.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-2 | .000 | 35.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-2 | .000 | 50.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-3 | .000 | 2.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 0-1 | .000 | 21.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 2-1 | .667 | 32.3 |
| Scores 40+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 45.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 5.5 |
| Allows 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-1 | .500 | 25.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-2 | .000 | 35.5 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-2 | .000 | 52.0 |
MANATEE
• MANATEE has scored 40+ in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). It has not scored 40+ in 3 straight since 9/4/26–9/18/26 (2026). It has reached 3 straight 2 times in the last 4 years.
• MANATEE has gained 400+ total yards in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). It has not gained 400+ total yards in 3 straight since 9/4/26–9/18/26 (2026).
• MANATEE has won by 20+ in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). It has not won by 20+ in 3 straight since 9/20/24–11/29/24 (2024).
• MANATEE has scored 30+ in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). It has not scored 30+ in 3 straight since 9/4/26–9/25/26 (2026). It has reached 3 straight 3 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 8 straight (2024) in that span.
PLANT
• PLANT has allowed 30+ in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• PLANT has allowed 200+ rushing in 2 straight games (10/23/26–10/30/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 38.9 | W3 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 21.0 | L2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 34.4 | W2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 39.0 | W2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | W2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | L2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 40.8 | W1 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 29.8 | W1 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | W2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | L2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | W2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | L2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | W2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | L2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 33.4 | L2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 39.7 | W3 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 27.2 | L2 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 34.5 | L1 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 14.0 | L1 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 27.3 | L1 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 30.0 | W1 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 45.4 | W2 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 37.3 | L2 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 15.2 | W4 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 36.3 | L3 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 16.8 | W4 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 29.6 | W2 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 24.0 | W2 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 33.0 | W1 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 21.8 | W3 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 32.8 | W1 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 11.5 | W2 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 35.0 | L2 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 13.3 | W3 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 35.0 | L2 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 13.3 | W3 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 28.8 | W1 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 27.5 | W1 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 | W1 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 22.0 | W2 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 6.0 | W1 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 17.0 | W2 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 25.0 | W3 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 35.0 | L2 |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 50.0 | L2 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 29.0 | L1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 13.2 | L1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 40.5 | W2 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 8 | 3-5 | .375 | 18.2 | L2 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 29.0 | L1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 16.4 | L1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 9 | 4-5 | .444 | 23.8 | L2 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 33.2 | L1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 12.2 | L3 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 31.2 | L1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 10.0 | L3 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 34.8 | L1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 10.6 | L2 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 9 | 4-5 | .444 | 19.9 | L2 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 48.0 | W1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 17.0 | W1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 2.0 | L3 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 21.0 | L1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 32.3 | L1 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 45.0 | W2 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 41.5 | L3 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 13.5 | L1 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 37.0 | L1 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 21.6 | L2 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 33.1 | L3 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 5.0 | W3 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 37.5 | L5 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 5.5 | W4 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 8 | 3-5 | .375 | 29.9 | L2 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 | W2 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 33.1 | L3 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 5.0 | W3 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 38.5 | L3 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 15.5 | L2 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 22.9 | L2 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 29.0 | W1 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 15.2 | L1 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 21.5 | L1 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 5.5 | W4 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 25.0 | L1 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 35.5 | L2 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 52.0 | L2 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 6 games | 09/18/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 3-3 |
| OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 2-2 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 6 games | 09/18/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 3-3 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 2-3 |
| DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 4 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 2-2 |
| DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 games | 10/16/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 1-2 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| MAN | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 6 games | 09/18/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 3-3 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 2-2 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 6 games | 09/18/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 3-3 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 2-3 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 4 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 2-2 |
| PLA | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 games | 10/16/2026 - 10/30/2026 | 1-2 |
Each pair of rows above is tinted by the gap between the two teams' win% in that scenario, judged for the HOME team (the bottom row):
GRAY = negligible gap (.000-.050)
PURPLE = solid gap (.051-.150)
GREEN = big gap (.151+), favoring the home team
RED = big gap (.151+), against the home team
| 100 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | OVER | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | W2 |
| PLA | DEF | OVER | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 33.1 | L3 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | UNDER | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | L2 |
| PLA | DEF | UNDER | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 5.0 | W3 |
| 150 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | OVER | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 40.8 | W1 |
| PLA | DEF | OVER | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 37.5 | L5 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | UNDER | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 29.8 | W1 |
| PLA | DEF | UNDER | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 5.5 | W4 |
| YPC 5.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | OVER | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | W2 |
| PLA | DEF | OVER | 8 | 3-5 | .375 | 29.9 | L2 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | UNDER | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | L2 |
| PLA | DEF | UNDER | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 | W2 |
| YPA 8.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | OVER | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 38.9 | W3 |
| PLA | DEF | OVER | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 41.5 | L3 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | UNDER | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 21.0 | L2 |
| PLA | DEF | UNDER | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 13.5 | L1 |
| 200 PASS YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | OVER | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 34.4 | W2 |
| PLA | DEF | OVER | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 37.0 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | UNDER | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 39.0 | W2 |
| PLA | DEF | UNDER | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 21.6 | L2 |
| 0 TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | ZERO | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 39.7 | W3 |
| PLA | DEF | ZERO | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 29.0 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | OVER | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 33.4 | L2 |
| PLA | DEF | OVER | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 22.9 | L2 |
| 2+ TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | OVER | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 27.2 | L2 |
| PLA | DEF | OVER | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 15.2 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | UNDER | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 40.7 | W3 |
| PLA | DEF | UNDER | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 34.2 | L1 |
| >2 TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | OVER | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 34.5 | L1 |
| PLA | DEF | OVER | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 21.5 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | OFF | UNDER | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 35.5 | W2 |
| PLA | DEF | UNDER | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 25.5 | L1 |
| 100 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | OVER | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 29.6 | W2 |
| PLA | OFF | OVER | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 29.0 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | UNDER | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 24.0 | W2 |
| PLA | OFF | UNDER | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 16.4 | L1 |
| 150 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | OVER | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 33.0 | W1 |
| PLA | OFF | OVER | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | UNDER | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 21.8 | W3 |
| PLA | OFF | UNDER | 9 | 4-5 | .444 | 23.8 | L2 |
| YPC 5.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | OVER | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 32.8 | W1 |
| PLA | OFF | OVER | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 33.2 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | UNDER | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 11.5 | W2 |
| PLA | OFF | UNDER | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 12.2 | L3 |
| YPA 8.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | OVER | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 37.3 | L2 |
| PLA | OFF | OVER | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 29.0 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | UNDER | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 15.2 | W4 |
| PLA | OFF | UNDER | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 13.2 | L1 |
| 200 PASS YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | OVER | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 36.3 | L3 |
| PLA | OFF | OVER | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 40.5 | W2 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | UNDER | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 16.8 | W4 |
| PLA | OFF | UNDER | 8 | 3-5 | .375 | 18.2 | L2 |
| 0 TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | ZERO | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 27.5 | W1 |
| PLA | OFF | ZERO | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 48.0 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | OVER | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 28.8 | W1 |
| PLA | OFF | OVER | 9 | 4-5 | .444 | 19.9 | L2 |
| 2+ TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | OVER | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 | W1 |
| PLA | OFF | OVER | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 17.0 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MAN | DEF | UNDER | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 30.4 | W1 |
| PLA | OFF | UNDER | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 26.5 | L2 |
MAN OFFENSE
MAN's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 1.3 giveaways per game. (-49%)
MAN's offense has averaged 83.8 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 10-game average is 147.0 rush yards per game. (-43%)
MAN's offense has averaged 8.9 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 6.8 YPC. (+30%)
MAN's offense has averaged 10.7 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 8.8 YPP. (+22%)
PLA OFFENSE
PLA's offense has averaged 7.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 5.1 YPC. (+49%)
PLA's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 1.3 giveaways per game. (-49%)
PLA's offense has averaged 28.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 22.7 points scored per game. (+23%)
PLA's offense has averaged 70.6 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 10-game average is 89.7 rush yards per game. (-21%)
MAN DEFENSE
MAN's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 1.5 takeaways per game. (-33%)
MAN's defense has averaged 20.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 28.5 points allowed per game. (-30%)
MAN's defense has averaged 156.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 216.6 pass yards per game. (-28%)
PLA DEFENSE
PLA's defense has averaged 102.4 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 10-game average is 156.9 pass yards per game. (-35%)
PLA's defense has averaged 1.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 10-game average is 1.7 takeaways per game. (-29%)
PLA's defense has averaged 6.8 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 8.7 YPA. (-22%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 2, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- GAME PROJECTION -- FULL DETAIL (report pages 1-2)
Library-native projection: computed directly from the game library (slate_projection.SlateEngine), not the Excel workbook engine. This section does not yet include: an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only).
Note 2 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Note 3 -- OPPONENT STRENGTH (best-effort) -- why this is often empty
Only meaningful for a game against an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team on this workbook -- with just a couple of teams tracked, that's rare (mainly a direct matchup between them, if this run covers both); every other opponent has no win% on file here at all, so most of a team's schedule simply has no strength data to show.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- MATCHUP CONFLICTS — TAB-SEPARATED (13 columns)
| Team1 | Side1 | Split1 | Record1 | Win%1 | PPG1 | Team2 | Side2 | Split2 | Record2 | Win%2 | PPG2 | Relevance |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 40.5 | MAN | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 16.8 | 1.000 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4-1 | .800 | 33.2 | MAN | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 11.5 | 0.800 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 21.0 | PLA | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 41.5 | 0.750 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | MAN | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 3-1 | .750 | 21.8 | 0.750 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | PLA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 5.0 | 0.714 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | PLA | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 5.0 | 0.714 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | PLA | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 | 0.714 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 31.2 | MAN | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 13.3 | 0.667 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 48.0 | MAN | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5-3 | .625 | 28.8 | 0.625 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 3-2 | .600 | 40.8 | PLA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 5.5 | 0.600 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3-2 | .600 | 34.8 | MAN | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 13.3 | 0.600 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3-2 | .600 | 29.0 | MAN | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 24.0 | 0.600 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 39.7 | PLA | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4-3 | .571 | 22.9 | 0.571 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 3-3 | .500 | 29.0 | MAN | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 15.2 | 0.500 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 39.0 | PLA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 37.0 | 0.500 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 3-2 | .600 | 29.8 | PLA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 1-5 | .167 | 37.5 | 0.433 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | PLA | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 38.5 | 0.417 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 6-2 | .750 | 38.9 | PLA | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 13.5 | 0.417 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | PLA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 2-5 | .286 | 33.1 | 0.381 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | PLA | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 2-5 | .286 | 33.1 | 0.381 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 40.1 | PLA | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 15.5 | 0.381 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 1-3 | .250 | 10.0 | MAN | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 3-4 | .429 | 35.0 | 0.321 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 12.2 | MAN | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4-4 | .500 | 32.8 | 0.300 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 3-5 | .375 | 18.2 | MAN | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2-4 | .333 | 36.3 | 0.292 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | PLA | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3-5 | .375 | 29.9 | 0.292 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 3-4 | .429 | 33.4 | PLA | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1-2 | .333 | 29.0 | 0.238 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 2-3 | .400 | 10.6 | MAN | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3-4 | .429 | 35.0 | 0.171 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 13.2 | MAN | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 2-4 | .333 | 37.3 | 0.167 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 2-3 | .400 | 16.4 | MAN | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 4-4 | .500 | 29.6 | 0.100 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 4-5 | .444 | 23.8 | MAN | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 3-3 | .500 | 33.0 | 0.056 |
| PLA | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4-5 | .444 | 19.9 | MAN | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 27.5 | 0.056 |
| MAN | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 4-4 | .500 | 34.4 | PLA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 4-4 | .500 | 21.6 | 0.000 |
Data Export 2 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| MAN | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 156.0 | 10 | 216.6 | -28.0% | |
| MAN | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 20.0 | 10 | 28.5 | -29.8% | |
| MAN | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 5 | 83.8 | 10 | 147.0 | -43.0% | |
| MAN | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.0 | 10 | 1.5 | -33.3% | |
| MAN | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.7 | 10 | 1.3 | -48.7% | |
| MAN | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 8.9 | 10 | 6.8 | +30.4% | |
| MAN | OFFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 10.7 | 10 | 8.8 | +21.6% | |
| PLA | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 5 | 102.4 | 10 | 156.9 | -34.7% | |
| PLA | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 28.0 | 10 | 22.7 | +23.3% | |
| PLA | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 5 | 70.6 | 10 | 89.7 | -21.3% | |
| PLA | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 5 | 1.2 | 10 | 1.7 | -29.4% | |
| PLA | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.7 | 10 | 1.3 | -48.7% | |
| PLA | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 6.8 | 10 | 8.7 | -21.8% | |
| PLA | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 7.6 | 10 | 5.1 | +49.4% |
