In short: Cherokee Trail (5-6) at Grandview (8-3), October 15, 2026 (high school football). Final: Grandview 31, Cherokee Trail 7. The full report has the projection, unit grades, storylines, pregame notes, Big Game Watch, series history, season stats and both rosters.

CHEROKEE TRAIL

SCOREPIRATE MATCHUP REPORT ·

CHEROKEE TRAIL (AWAY) AT GRANDVIEW (HOME)

CHEROKEE TRAIL 16.6  —  29.1 GRANDVIEW

GRANDVIEW 73.1% FAVORITES

GRANDVIEW

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UNIT INDEX — GRADE (YDS VS AVG)

TEAM	PASS O	RUSH O	PASS D	RUSH D
CHEROKEE TRAIL	87.0 (+86.8)	41.4 (-29.7)	39.1 (+11.3)	67.2 (-36.8)
GRANDVIEW	56.6 (-0.8)	54.2 (-1.4)	90.1 (-73.5)	83.7 (-77.4)

CHEROKEE TRAIL AT GRANDVIEW

ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW · 2026 SEASON

TIMEFRAME This season (2026)Last 2 years (2025–26)Last 4 years (2023–26)Last 6 years (2021–26)Last 8 years (2019–26)Last 10 years (2017–26)RANKS VS SECTION LEAGUE CIF Southern Section · 432 teams DOWNLOAD CARD AS PDFDOWNLOAD AS JPEG

WIN PROB

26.9%

PROJ PTS

16.6

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WIN PROB

73.1%

PROJ PTS

29.1

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Averages, ranks and records above cover the selected window; SP STRENGTH INDEX and the UNIT/RUSH/PASS INDEX rows are full-library ratings and do not change with it.

Rank chips: 1 = best in the pool; blue strong, red weak. Yardage and efficiency use games with a full box score on file; points and turnovers use every played game. Unit Index = opponent-adjusted 0-100 league percentile.

PROJECTION COMPONENTS

COMPONENT	POINTS	WEIGHT	CONTRIBUTION
Common Opponents	-7.76	32%	-2.46
Strength	-13.07	20%	-2.58
Efficiency	+0.73	18%	+0.13
Own Margin	-8.22	16%	-1.32
Head To Head	-22.42	14%	-3.15
Garbage Time Margin	--	0%	+0.00
EPA Efficiency	--	0%	+0.00

What if he’s out?

Mark players out to re-project this game. Each value is how much of the margin that player is worth, from this season's data (his share of his team's win shares). Estimates — your selections change only your view.

PROJECTED TEAM YARDAGE

CATEGORY	TEAM	PROJECTED
Passing	CHEROKEE TRAIL	98.4
Passing	GRANDVIEW	183.1
Rushing	CHEROKEE TRAIL	77.9
Rushing	GRANDVIEW	138.3
Total	CHEROKEE TRAIL	176.3
Total	GRANDVIEW	321.4

PROJECTED BOX SCORE

CHEROKEE TRAIL — PASSING
PLAYER	C/ATT	COMP %	YDS	YPA	TD	INT	QBR
BRYSON PETERSON	15.8/27.0	58.6%	98.4	3.6	0.9	0.6	95.4

CHEROKEE TRAIL — RUSHING
PLAYER	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
BRYSON PETERSON	9.9	37.1	3.7	0.6
OWEN NEWELL	9.0	26.9	3.0	0.3
DORIAN HARRIS	6.8	13.9	2.0	0.1
TOTALS	25.7	77.9	3.0	1.1

CHEROKEE TRAIL — RECEIVING
PLAYER	REC	YDS	YPC	TD
EVAN SMITH	2.2	38.5	17.3	0.4
RJ STANLEY	2.0	32.3	16.2	0.2
JORDAN MITCHELL	1.5	27.6	18.0	0.3
TOTALS	5.8	98.4	17.1	1.0

GRANDVIEW — PASSING
PLAYER	C/ATT	COMP %	YDS	YPA	TD	INT	QBR
LANDER WISE	7.6/13.8	55.0%	115.5	8.4	1.1	0.2	148.5
BLITZ MCCARTY	4.6/10.2	45.5%	67.5	6.6	0.9	0.1	129.1
TOTALS	12.2/24.0	51.0%	183.1	7.6	2.0	0.3	140.2

GRANDVIEW — RUSHING
PLAYER	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
CHRIS BLANKS	16.2	76.8	4.7	0.8
NEELEIN SHEAD JR.	6.5	33.0	5.1	0.1
LANDER WISE	6.0	28.5	4.8	0.3
TOTALS	28.7	138.3	4.8	1.2

GRANDVIEW — RECEIVING
PLAYER	REC	YDS	YPC	TD
TIMOTHY ARNOLD III	4.2	55.8	13.3	0.6
BLAKE RICHMEIER	3.1	50.0	16.2	0.8
JAXSON FLORES	2.7	39.1	14.7	0.9
MATTHEW SCHIMBERG	4.6	38.2	8.2	0.0
TOTALS	14.6	183.1	12.5	2.3

PREGAME NOTES

The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: Cherokee Trail's pass defense. The Cougar allowed 12.2 yards per pass attempt (208 yards on 17 attempts) against Grandview on 10/15, well above their 6.2 mark in every other game this season. Cherokee Trail lost the game 31-7. A pass defense number closer to Cherokee Trail's norm would go a long way toward flipping the result this time.

The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: Grandview's passing. The Wolves averaged 12.2 yards per pass attempt (208 yards on 17 attempts) against Cherokee Trail on 10/15, well above their 6.2 mark in every other game this season. Grandview won the game 31-7. Repeating that kind of passing edge would put Grandview in a strong position to do it again.

Grandview allowed 3.2 yards per carry (513 yards on 160 rushes) over its first 5 games (4-1), #6 in section during that period. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 6 games since that hot start (4-2), the Wolves have allowed 5.4 yards per carry (895 yards on 167 rushes), a 67% rise, #35 in section during that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.3 yards per carry on the season. On the season, Grandview ranks #20 in section in run defense. Cherokee Trail's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #43 in section (5.1 yards per carry).

Something changed for Grandview's defense after the first 6 games of the season. The Wolves allowed 9.5 points per game over their first 6 games (5-1), #3 in section over that period. Over the stretch of 5 games that followed (3-2), Grandview has allowed 15.6 points per game, a 64% rise, #18 in section over that timeframe. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 26.5 points per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (26.6 points per game), Grandview held those offenses 41% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, the Wolves rank #9 in section in scoring defense. Cherokee Trail's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #28 in section (28.5 points per game).

One of Grandview's shakiest areas lately has been its defense. Grandview forced 1.7 takeaways per game over its first 7 games (6-1), #22 in section over that span. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Wolves have forced 0.5 takeaways per game, a 71% drop, #62 in section in that timeframe. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Grandview's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.0 per game, a #18 offense in section on the season, against 1.5 per game, #38 for the first 7. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.0 per game), Grandview forced 51% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #15 in section. On the season, Grandview ranks #48 in section in takeaways. It won't get any easier against Cherokee Trail, whose ball security ranks #17 in section (1.0 per game).

Cherokee Trail's offense has gone quiet as the season has progressed. Cherokee Trail averaged 36.6 points per game over its first 7 games (4-3), #17 in section in that window. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Cougar have averaged 14.2 points per game, a 61% drop, #58 in section during that time. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Cherokee Trail's last 4 opponents have averaged 23.8 points per game, a #36 scoring defense in section on the season, against 27.3 points per game, #44 for the first 7. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.8 points per game), Cherokee Trail scored 40% less than those defenses usually allow. Cherokee Trail was held to 14 points or fewer 2 times in those games, including 7 against ScorePirate CO section #6 Grandview on 10/15. On the season, Cherokee Trail ranks #28 in section in scoring. It won't get any easier against Grandview, whose defense ranks #9 in section (12.3 points per game).

BIG GAME WATCH

Players positioned for an outsized game because of this opponent: a player's share of his team's win shares, weighted by the tendencies of the team across from him. Only matchup-driven picks are shown.

Cherokee Trail

Nothing about this opponent moves one player ahead of the rest.

Grandview

Malcolm SmithDL7 sacks and 10 TFLCherokee Trail throws on 54% of its snaps, #10 of 69 in section; more dropbacks mean more chances to get home

Taitum Lucus ThompsonDB2 INT, 22 tacklesCherokee Trail throws on 54% of its snaps, #10 of 69 in section; more throws mean more balls to go get

MILESTONE WATCH

Cherokee Trail

• Bryson Peterson needs 2 touchdown passes for 10 (averaging 2.7 a game)

STORYLINES

If there's one number to watch in this matchup, it's Cherokee Trail's scoring defense. Cherokee Trail allowed 10.0 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #10 in section in that timeframe. In the 8 games since that hot start (2-6), the Cougar have allowed 29.8 points per game, a 198% rise, #43 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Cherokee Trail's last 8 opponents have averaged 25.3 points per game, a #35 offense in section on the season, against 12.4 points per game, #66 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (25.3 points per game), Cherokee Trail allowed 17% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 8 opponents average a rating that would rank #22 in section, well above the first 3 (#54), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Grandview's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Wolves have averaged 19.6 points per game over their last 8 games (5-3), #51 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in section (21.2 points per game on the season, which would rank #31). Against those norms, Grandview scored 7% less than those defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Cherokee Trail is 4-0 this season when it holds opponents under 25, and 1-6 when it doesn't.

The battle on the ground has the potential to swing this matchup, with the recent returns favoring Grandview. Cherokee Trail allowed 2.2 yards per carry (209 yards on 95 rushes) over its first 4 games (3-1), #2 in section through those games. In the 7 games since that hot start (2-5), the Cougar have allowed 5.3 yards per carry (1,396 yards on 262 rushes), a 142% rise, #36 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Cherokee Trail's last 7 opponents have averaged 5.8 yards per carry, a #29 rushing attack in section on the season, against 3.5 yards per carry, #63 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.8 yards per carry), Cherokee Trail held those rushing attacks 9% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 7 opponents average a rating that would rank #22 in section, well above the first 4 (#44), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Grandview's ground game has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Wolves have averaged 4.7 yards per carry (1,097 yards on 232 rushes) over their last 7 games (4-3), #45 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of run defenses in section (4.7 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #25). Grandview offers Cherokee Trail a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

The Cherokee Trail ball security of late is barely reminiscent of the one that began the season. Cherokee Trail committed 1.6 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #36 in section within that period. In the 6 games since that slow start (2-4), the Cougar have committed 0.5 giveaways per game, a 69% drop, #5 in section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.2 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.3 per game), Cherokee Trail turned it over 61% less than those defenses usually force. Meanwhile, Grandview's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Wolves have forced 0.8 takeaways per game over their last 6 games (4-2), #54 in section during those games. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (1.1 per game on the season, which would rank #25). Against those norms, Grandview forced 26% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Cherokee Trail.

• an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only)

• Club The last time Grandview went a game allowing 7.0+ yards per play was October 4, 2024 against Arapahoe (L, 13-25). Since then Grandview has gone 29 straight games holding the opponent under 7.0 yards per play, a school-record 29 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Grandview has gone 11 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (August 21, 2026 through November 12, 2026), going 8-3 over that stretch, a school-record 11 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Player Malcolm Smith has 6 sacks over his last 3 games (2.0 a game, August 28, 2026 through September 18, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Club Cherokee Trail has lost 2 straight, and a loss would make it 3 in a row. The last time they lost 3 or more in a row was 2022, a run of 4.

• Player Malcolm Smith has gone 3 straight games recording two or more tackles for loss, the longest such streak of his career.

• Player Quentin Dorsey has gone 2 straight games making 10 or more tackles, the longest such streak of his career.

• Club Cherokee Trail is 5-6 entering play against Grandview, its first 5-6 start through 11 games in the 5 seasons on record.

• Series Grandview leads the all-time series with Cherokee Trail 2-1, across 3 meetings dating to 2024.

CT (1)

Commitments per 247Sports, limited to players on each team's current roster.

• GRA's defense has limited opponents to under 6.0 YPP in 11 straight games (08/21/2026-11/12/2026), going 8-3 over that stretch.

• GRA's defense has limited opponents to under 7.0 YPP in 11 straight games (08/21/2026-11/12/2026), going 8-3 over that stretch.

• GRA's defense has averaged 0.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 1.3 takeaways per game. (-74%)

• CT's defense has conceded 100+ rush yds in 7 straight games (09/24/2026-11/06/2026), going 2-5 over that stretch.

• CT's offense has averaged 0.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 1.0 giveaways per game. (-67%)

• GRA's defense has limited opponents to under 8.0 YPA in 6 straight games (10/01/2026-11/12/2026), going 4-2 over that stretch.

• CT's defense has averaged 228.8 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 11-game average is 145.9 rush yards per game. (+57%)

• CT's defense has averaged 73.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 157.7 pass yards per game. (-54%)

• CT's offense has failed to reach 8.0 YPA in 5 straight games (10/09/2026-11/06/2026), going 1-4 over that stretch.

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)

CT: 1 of 11 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .727 across those game(s).

GRA: 1 of 11 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .455 across those game(s).

(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)

--- CT ---

--- GRA ---

The next meeting brings together Cherokee Trail (5-6 this season) and Grandview (8-3). The SP Strength Index has Cherokee Trail at #29 and Grandview at #6 of 69 in the CO section. Grandview leads the recent series 1-0 over the last 1 meetings. In the most recent meeting, on October 15, 2026, Grandview pulled away 31-7.

Having dropped 5 of its last 7 entering play, Cherokee Trail's ball security has been the team's calling card (committed no more than one giveaway in 7 straight games, 2-5 in that stretch). Last time out, though, the Cougar fell to Heritage 28-21. In the process of winning 4 of its last 7 entering play, Grandview's pass defense has been the team's calling card (held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 9 of its last 10, 7-3 in that stretch). That carried into last time out, the Wolves handling Regis Jesuit 19-13.

The matchup within the matchup pairs Cherokee Trail's ball security with Grandview's takeaway production. Cherokee Trail has turned the ball over only 4 times in the Cougar's last 7 games, never committing more than one giveaway in a game — the Cougar have gone 2-5 in that stretch. The matchup when the two meet lines up in Cherokee Trail's favor. Grandview has managed just 4 takeaways in the Wolves' last 5 games — the Wolves have gone 3-2 in that stretch.

WEAKNESS VS. STRENGTH — Cherokee Trail has an uncomfortable assignment when the two meet. Cherokee Trail's rush defense has been a real vulnerability over the Cougar's last 5 games. The defense has conceded 100+ rushing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 228.8 rushing yards allowed per game (including a high of 301 in that span vs. Heritage). That is 143% above the Cougar's baseline of 94.0 yards per game over the 9 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Cougar have gone 1-4 in that stretch. Across the line, Grandview's rushing offense has been playing at a high level over the Wolves' last 5 games. The ground game has eclipsed 200 rushing yards in 3 of the 5 games while averaging 186.8 rushing yards per game (including a high of 280 in that span vs. Regis Jesuit). That is 50% above the Wolves' baseline of 124.4 yards per game over the 9 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Wolves have gone 3-2 in that stretch.

ONE-SIDED — Grandview's pass defense has been playing at a high level over the Wolves' last 10 games. The defense has held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 9 of the 10 games while averaging 116.1 passing yards allowed per game (including a low of 53 in that span vs. Cherokee Trail). That is 39% below the Wolves' baseline of 191.0 yards per game over the 4 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Wolves have gone 7-3 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Cherokee Trail. Cherokee Trail has averaged 192.4 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Cherokee Trail's pass defense has been playing at a high level over the Cougar's last 5 games. The defense has held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 4 of the 5 games while averaging 94.8 passing yards allowed per game (including a low of 42 in that span vs. Northfield). That is 52% below the Cougar's baseline of 195.6 yards per game over the 9 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Cougar have gone 1-4 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Grandview. Grandview has averaged 138.3 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Grandview's pass rush has been playing at a high level over the Wolves' last 5 games, dating back to last season. The defense has recorded 3+ sacks in 4 of the 5 games while averaging 4.8 sacks per game (including a high of 8 in that span vs. Riverdale Ridge). That is 140% above the Wolves' baseline of 2.0 per game over the 3 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Wolves have gone 4-1 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Cherokee Trail.

CHEROKEE TRAIL

• CHEROKEE TRAIL has forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (10/23/26–11/6/26). It has not forced 2+ turnovers in 4 straight since 8/28/26–9/17/26 (2026).

Each pair of rows above is tinted by the gap between the two teams' win% in that scenario, judged for the HOME team (the bottom row):

GRAY = negligible gap (.000-.050)

PURPLE = solid gap (.051-.150)

GREEN = big gap (.151+), favoring the home team

RED = big gap (.151+), against the home team

CT OFFENSE vs GRA DEFENSE

GRA OFFENSE vs CT DEFENSE

Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.

Explanatory Notes

Note 1 -- GAME PROJECTION -- FULL DETAIL (report pages 1-2)

Library-native projection: computed directly from the game library (slate_projection.SlateEngine), not the Excel workbook engine. This section does not yet include: an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only).

Note 2 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored

Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.

Note 3 -- OPPONENT STRENGTH (best-effort) -- why this is often empty

Only meaningful for a game against an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team on this workbook -- with just a couple of teams tracked, that's rare (mainly a direct matchup between them, if this run covers both); every other opponent has no win% on file here at all, so most of a team's schedule simply has no strength data to show.

Full Data Exports

Data Export 1 -- MATCHUP CONFLICTS — TAB-SEPARATED (13 columns)

Data Export 2 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)