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AT A GLANCE

In short: Austin (3-5) at Johnson (3-5), October 29, 2026 (high school football). ScorePirate projects Johnson 29-28 (52% to win). The full report has the projection, unit grades, storylines, pregame notes, Big Game Watch, series history, season stats and both rosters.

SCOREPIRATE MATCHUP REPORT ·
AUSTIN (AWAY) AT JOHNSON (HOME)
AUSTIN 27.6  —  28.6 JOHNSON
JOHNSON 52.0% FAVORITES

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UNIT INDEX — GRADE (YDS VS AVG)
TEAMPASS ORUSH OPASS DRUSH D
AUSTIN25.4 (-66.1)49.2 (-11.9)4.9 (+105.5)57.4 (-17.4)
JOHNSON10.4 (-102.6)87.6 (+101.8)4.1 (+113.5)58.5 (-20.0)
AUSTIN AT JOHNSON
ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW · 2026 SEASON
RANKS VS · 249 teams DOWNLOAD CARD AS PDFDOWNLOAD AS JPEG
WIN PROB
48.0%
PROJ PTS
27.6
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SACKS / GAME··
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OFF ALLOWED··
PLAY CALLS (OFF)·
RUSH·
PLAYS FACED (DEF)·
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AUST OFF VS JOHN DEF
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··RUSH O / RUSH D INDEX··
··PASS O / PASS D INDEX··
··TURNOVERS LOST / FORCED··
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JOHN OFF VS AUST DEF
··RUSH YDS / G··
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··TURNOVERS LOST / FORCED··
··SACKS ALLOWED / MADE··
WIN PROB
52.0%
PROJ PTS
28.6
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··SP STRENGTH INDEX
··UNIT INDEX
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··DEF
··POINTS / GAME
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··YARDS / GAME
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··YARDS ALLOWED / G
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··SACKS / GAME
··DEF MADE
··OFF ALLOWED
·PLAY CALLS (OFF)
·RUSH
·PLAYS FACED (DEF)
·RUSH

Rank chips: 1 = best in the pool; blue strong, red weak. Yardage and efficiency use games with a full box score on file; points and turnovers use every played game. Unit Index = opponent-adjusted 0-100 league percentile.

PROJECTION COMPONENTS
COMPONENTPOINTSWEIGHTCONTRIBUTION
Common Opponents+1.8237%+0.66
Strength+0.6323%+0.14
Efficiency+0.8319%+0.16
Own Margin+2.7518%+0.50
Head To Head-26.374%-0.95
Garbage Time Margin--0%+0.00
EPA Efficiency--0%+0.00
What if he’s out?

Mark players out to re-project this game. Each value is how much of the margin that player is worth, from this season's data (his share of his team's win shares). Estimates — your selections change only your view.

PROJECTED TEAM YARDAGE
CATEGORYTEAMPROJECTED
PassingAUSTIN221.1
PassingJOHNSON177.8
RushingAUSTIN142.9
RushingJOHNSON191.5
TotalAUSTIN363.9
TotalJOHNSON369.2
PROJECTED BOX SCORE
AUSTIN — PASSING
PLAYERC/ATTCOMP %YDSYPATDINTQBR
ALIJAH JABLON3.7/9.240.4%123.313.41.10.3185.5
WHIT DAVENPORT3.3/7.543.8%97.713.00.90.1190.2
TOTALS7.0/16.741.9%221.113.22.00.4187.6
AUSTIN — RUSHING
PLAYERCARYDSYPCTD
ALIJAH JABLON9.871.47.20.7
NIKO GABRYLUK-MELENDEZ7.436.54.90.4
CALEB DELEON8.635.04.10.2
TOTALS25.9142.95.51.3
AUSTIN — RECEIVING
PLAYERRECYDSYPCTD
ENZO HOOPMAN5.269.113.40.5
BRADY FORD3.461.218.01.1
DAVIS DEERING4.058.514.50.9
NIKO GABRYLUK-MELENDEZ2.232.214.80.0
TOTALS14.8221.115.02.5
JOHNSON — PASSING
PLAYERC/ATTCOMP %YDSYPATDINTQBR
JONAH MONTGOMERY6.7/14.246.7%177.812.51.40.3179.9
JOHNSON — RUSHING
PLAYERCARYDSYPCTD
MADDOX MARTINEZ22.7103.64.60.9
JASON BECK4.845.29.30.7
JONAH MONTGOMERY8.442.75.10.7
TOTALS35.9191.55.32.3
JOHNSON — RECEIVING
PLAYERRECYDSYPCTD
DEVAN BROWN7.697.612.90.9
WESTIN WINBURN2.130.915.00.4
DAMARI HERRING1.925.513.20.0
JAYDEN GARCIA4.523.85.20.0
TOTALS16.1177.811.11.3
PREGAME NOTES

The Austin offense of late is barely reminiscent of the one that began the season. Austin averaged 15.0 points per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #1063 in section during that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Maroons have averaged 39.8 points per game, a 165% rise, #309 in section during that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Austin's last 4 opponents have averaged 35.8 points per game, a #907 scoring defense in section on the season, against 28.3 points per game, #617 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (35.8 points per game), Austin scored 11% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #668 in section, well below the first 4 (#406), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Austin ranks #704 in section in scoring. Johnson's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #838 in section (33.9 points per game). Austin is 3-0 this season when it scores 34 or more, and 0-5 when it doesn't.

Something changed for Austin's offense after its first 4 games. The Maroons averaged 3.9 yards per play (799 yards on 205 snaps) over their first 4 games (0-4), #965 in section over that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), Austin has averaged 7.6 yards per play (1,494 yards on 197 snaps), a 95% rise, #353 in section over that timeframe. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Austin's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.9 yards per play, a #912 defense in section on the season, against 6.3 yards per play, #419 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #668 in section, well below the first 4 (#406), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Maroons rank #784 in section in yards per play. The trend lines up well against Johnson, whose defense ranks just #996 of 1232 (8.3 yards per play).

One of Johnson's most reliable areas lately has been its ground game. Johnson averaged 4.6 yards per carry (499 yards on 108 rushes) over its first 3 games (1-2), #733 in section over that span. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Jaguars have averaged 8.0 yards per carry (1,661 yards on 207 rushes), a 74% rise, #171 in section in that timeframe. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Johnson's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.9 yards per carry, a #863 run defense in section on the season, against 5.7 yards per carry, #546 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per carry), Johnson ran for 17% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, Johnson ranks #315 in section in rushing. Austin's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #476 in section (5.5 yards per carry).

Johnson's defense has slammed the door as the season has progressed. The Jaguars allowed 43.0 points per game over their first 5 games (1-4), #1102 in section in that window. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), Johnson has allowed 18.7 points per game, a 57% drop, #311 in section during that time. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Johnson's last 3 opponents have averaged 25.2 points per game, a #769 offense in section on the season, against 35.0 points per game, #398 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (25.2 points per game), Johnson held those offenses 26% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #730 in section, well below the first 5 (#307), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Dripping Springs broke through in that span, putting up 49 on 10/2. On the season, the Jaguars rank #837 in section in scoring defense. Austin's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #704 in section (27.4 points per game). Johnson is 3-0 this season when it holds opponents under 28, and 0-5 when it doesn't.

Austin's defense has allowed fewer points as the weeks have passed. Austin allowed 29.8 points per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #680 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Maroons have allowed 13.7 points per game, a 54% drop, #179 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Austin's last 3 opponents have averaged 25.2 points per game, a #769 offense in section on the season, against 29.8 points per game, #603 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (25.2 points per game), Austin held those offenses 46% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #730 in section, well below the first 5 (#423), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Dripping Springs broke through in that span, putting up 41 on 10/8. On the season, Austin ranks #397 in section in scoring defense. Johnson's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #457 in section (33.0 points per game). Austin is 3-3 this season when it holds opponents under 33, and 0-2 when it doesn't.

Johnson's offense has started chewing up yardage as the year has continued. Johnson averaged 5.4 yards per play (1,143 yards on 210 snaps) over its first 4 games (1-3), #795 in section over that stretch. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), the Jaguars have averaged 7.9 yards per play (1,549 yards on 197 snaps), a 44% rise, #307 in section within that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Johnson's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.9 yards per play, a #912 defense in section on the season, against 6.6 yards per play, #539 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #668 in section, well below the first 4 (#267), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Johnson ranks #577 in section in yards per play. Austin's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #634 in section (6.9 yards per play).

BIG GAME WATCH

Players positioned for an outsized game because of this opponent: a player's share of his team's win shares, weighted by the tendencies of the team across from him. Only matchup-driven picks are shown.

Austin

Alijah JablonQB570 passing yards and 6 TDJohnson allows 11.2 yards per pass attempt, #849 of 927 in section; 570 passing yards and 6 TD should travel well
Davis DeeringWR14 catches for 203 yardsJohnson allows 11.2 yards per pass attempt, #849 of 927 in section; 14 catches for 203 yards should find space

Johnson

Nothing about this opponent moves one player ahead of the rest.

MILESTONE WATCH

Austin

  • Niko Gabryluk-melendez needs 32 rushing yards for 500 (averaging 78.0 a game)
  • Alijah Jablon needs 63 rushing yards for 500 (averaging 54.6 a game)

Johnson

  • Fernando Saldana needs 6 tackles for 50 (averaging 7.3 a game)
STORYLINES

The turnover battle has the potential to swing this matchup, with the recent returns favoring Johnson. Johnson forced 0.5 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #960 in section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), the Jaguars have forced 2.8 takeaways per game, a 450% rise, #48 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Johnson's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.3 per game, a #665 offense in section on the season, against 1.5 per game, #850 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.3 per game), Johnson forced 118% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #668 in section, well below the first 4 (#267), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Austin's ball security has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Maroons have committed 1.2 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #587 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (1.2 per game on the season, which would rank #638). Against those norms, Austin turned it over 7% more than those defenses usually force. Austin offers Johnson a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

If there's one number to watch in this matchup, it's Johnson's scoring. Johnson averaged 14.2 points per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #1080 in section through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), the Jaguars have averaged 51.8 points per game, a 263% rise, #89 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Johnson's last 4 opponents have averaged 35.8 points per game, a #907 scoring defense in section on the season, against 29.3 points per game, #658 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (35.8 points per game), Johnson scored 45% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #668 in section, well below the first 4 (#267), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Austin's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Maroons have allowed 17.2 points per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #238 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (26.3 points per game on the season, which would rank #734). Against those norms, Austin held those offenses 34% below what they usually score. Something has to give when Johnson's surging offense meets one of section's better units in Austin's. Johnson is 3-1 this season when it scores 24 or more, and 0-4 when it doesn't.

Austin averaged 3.7 yards per carry (453 yards on 123 rushes) over its first 4 games (0-4), #914 in section within that period. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Maroons have averaged 7.4 yards per carry (998 yards on 135 rushes), a 101% rise, #256 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Austin's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.2 yards per carry, a #929 run defense in section on the season, against 5.0 yards per carry, #305 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #668 in section, well below the first 4 (#406), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Johnson's run defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Jaguars have allowed 5.1 yards per carry (440 yards on 86 rushes) over their last 4 games (2-2), #393 in section during those games. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of rushing attacks in section (6.3 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #429). Against those norms, Johnson held those rushing attacks 19% below their usual yards per carry. Something has to give when Austin's surging ground game meets one of section's better units in Johnson's.

SERIES HISTORY — AUS vs JOH
Prep this game in Stat BoothAUSTIN team sheetJOHNSON team sheet
TIDBITS (17 found)

• Club The last time Johnson went a game throwing for 200+ yards was October 12, 2023 against Bowie (L, 16-21). Since then Johnson has gone 32 straight games being held under 200 passing yards, a school-record 32 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club The last time Austin went a game committing 3+ turnovers was November 8, 2024 against Lake Travis (L, 7-56). Since then Austin has gone 19 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers, a school-record 19 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Johnson has gone 6 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (September 11, 2026 through October 16, 2026), going 3-3 over that stretch, a school-record 6 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Austin has won 2 straight, and a win would make it 3 in a row. The last time they won 3 or more in a row was 2023, a run of 3.

• Club Austin has gone 10 straight games being held under 200 passing yards (October 31, 2025 through October 22, 2026), going 3-7 over that stretch, a school-record 10 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Johnson has gone 5 straight games forcing 1+ turnover (September 18, 2026 through October 16, 2026), going 2-3 over that stretch, a school-record 5 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Austin has scored 124 points over its last 3 games (41.3 a game, October 8, 2026 through October 22, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Club Austin is 3-5 entering play against Johnson, its first 3-5 start through 8 games in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Johnson has scored 179 points over its last 3 games (59.7 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Alijah Jablon has gone 2 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.

• Player Jonah Montgomery has gone 2 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.

• Series This week's meeting is the 2nd time in 5 all-time meetings in which one of the two teams enters unbeaten — in 2024, Austin entered 2-0 (Johnson won 44-35).

• Player Alijah Jablon has gone 2 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.

• Player Jonah Montgomery has gone 2 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.

• Player Whit Davenport has never had a game throwing for 200+ yards for Austin, over a 13-game career on record. His career high is 142, set October 2, 2025 against Dripping Springs (L, 13-56).

• Series Johnson leads the all-time series with Austin 4-0, across 4 meetings dating to 2022, and has won 4 straight in the series -- most recently 34-0 on September 11, 2025.

• Player Devan Brown has gone 2 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.

AUS — STAT LEADERS
FULL ROSTER ↓
OFFENSE
PASSING LEADER
570PASS YDS
C-ATT41-93
COMP%44.1%
YPA6.1
TD6
INT3
QBR110.4
RUSHING LEADER
468RUSH YDS
CAR101
YPC4.6
RUSH TD5
REC5
REC YDS74
YPR14.8
REC TD0
RUSHING LEADER
254RUSH YDS
CAR46
YPC5.5
RUSH TD2
REC2
REC YDS13
YPR6.5
REC TD1
RECEIVING LEADER
255REC YDS
REC19
YPR13.4
REC TD2
RECEIVING LEADER
203REC YDS
REC14
YPR14.5
REC TD3
DEFENSE
INTERCEPTIONS LEADER
2INT
TCKL0
TFL0
SACKS0
PD0
FF4
JOH — STAT LEADERS
FULL ROSTER ↓
OFFENSE
PASSING LEADER
453PASS YDS
C-ATT35-75
COMP%46.7%
YPA6.0
TD4
INT4
QBR104.3
RUSHING LEADER
281RUSH YDS
CAR30
YPC9.4
RUSH TD1
REC4
REC YDS53
YPR13.2
REC TD0
RUSHING LEADER
255RUSH YDS
CAR56
YPC4.6
RUSH TD3
REC2
REC YDS2
YPR1.0
REC TD0
RECEIVING LEADER
223REC YDS
REC19
YPR11.7
REC TD3
RECEIVING LEADER
75REC YDS
REC5
YPR15.0
REC TD1
DEFENSE
TACKLES LEADER
50TCKL
TFL8
SACKS0
INT1
PD2
FF0
TACKLES LEADER
44TCKL
TFL1
SACKS1
INT0
PD1
FF0
TACKLES LEADER
33TCKL
TFL5
SACKS2
INT0
PD1
FF0
TFL LEADER
6TFL
TCKL20
SACKS3
INT0
PD0
FF0
TFL LEADER
6TFL
TCKL18
SACKS1
INT0
PD0
FF0
SACKS LEADER
2SACKS
TCKL8
TFL2
INT0
PD0
FF0
INTERCEPTIONS LEADER
2INT
TCKL23
TFL0
SACKS0
PD10
FF0
SEASON OUTLOOK

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)

--- AUSTIN ---

RECORD TO DATEMOST LIKELY FINALPROJECTED RECORD
Overall3-5 so far3-6 (52%)3.5-5.5
League3-2 so far3-2 (100%)3.0-2.0

--- JOHNSON ---

RECORD TO DATEMOST LIKELY FINALPROJECTED RECORD
Overall3-5 so far4-6 (51%)3.8-6.2
League2-2 so far2-2 (100%)2.0-2.0
TALKING POINTS (14 storylines)
AUS IS LIKELIEST TO BEAT JOH IF...

• AUS averages 7.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so

• AUS rushes for 150+ yards (.750), and has won 3 straight when doing so

• AUS averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.750), and has won 3 straight when doing so

JOH IS LIKELIEST TO BEAT AUS IF...

• JOH commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.750), and has won 3 straight when doing so

• JOH holds AUS under 150 rushing yards (.667), and has won 2 straight when doing so

• JOH averages 6.0+ yards per play (.600), and has won 2 straight when doing so

• JOH's defense has averaged 3.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.6 takeaways per game. (+85%)

• JOH's offense has averaged 59.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 33.0 points scored per game. (+81%)

• AUS's offense has failed to reach 200 pass yds in 8 straight games (09/03/2026-10/22/2026), going 3-5 over that stretch.

• JOH's offense has failed to reach 200 pass yds in 8 straight games (08/27/2026-10/16/2026), going 3-5 over that stretch.

• AUS's defense has averaged 0.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (-67%)

• JOH's offense has averaged 22.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 66.5 pass yards per game. (-66%)

• JOH's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 6 straight games (09/11/2026-10/16/2026), going 3-3 over that stretch.

• JOH's offense has exceeded 150 rush yds in 6 straight games (09/11/2026-10/16/2026), going 3-3 over that stretch.

• JOH's offense has exceeded 5.0 YPC in 6 straight games (09/11/2026-10/16/2026), going 3-3 over that stretch.

MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)

AUS -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(top 2 of 2 scored; vs 2032 cached team(s))

#SIDECONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRKSCORE
1OFFPass Yds < 2003-5.37527.4W20.565
2OFFTurnovers < 33-5.37527.4W20.435

JOH -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(top 1 of 1 scored; vs 2032 cached team(s))

#SIDECONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRKSCORE
1OFFPass Yds < 2003-5.37533.0W20.500
WIN %: TWO-CONDITION COMBINATIONS (7 found, min 4 Gms each)

(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)

--- AUS ---

CONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRK
AUS rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards3-2.60040.0W3
AUS averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards3-1.75044.0W3
AUS averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards3-1.75044.0W3

--- JOH ---

CONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRK
JOH rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards3-4.42935.9W2
JOH averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards3-3.50040.8W2
JOH averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards3-2.60043.4W2
JOH rushes for 150+ yards but stays under 8.0 yards per attempt1-3.25030.2W1
WIN % -- TAB-SEPARATED
TeamConditionRecordWin%PPG
AUSRush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 2003-2.60040.0
AUSYPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+3-1.75044.0
AUSYPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+3-1.75044.0
JOHRush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 2003-4.42935.9
JOHYPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+3-3.50040.8
JOHYPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+3-2.60043.4
JOHRush Yds 150+ & YPA < 8.01-3.25030.2
PREGAME NOTES

The next meeting brings together Austin (3-5 this season) and Johnson (3-5). The SP Strength Index has Austin at #633 and Johnson at #644 of 1252 in the TX section. Johnson leads the recent series 4-0 over the last 4 meetings. In the most recent meeting, on September 11, 2025, Johnson pulled away 34-0.

Having dropped 4 of its last 7 entering play, Austin's takeaway production has been the soft spot (forced fewer than 2 takeaways in 4 of its last 5, 3-2 in that stretch). The Maroons won anyway last time out, handling Akins 64-0. Having dropped 4 of its last 7 entering play, Johnson's rushing offense has been the team's calling card (eclipsed 200 rushing yards in 5 straight games, 2-3 in that stretch). That carried into last time out, the Jaguars handling Akins 95-0.

The matchup within the matchup pairs Austin's ball security with Johnson's takeaway production. Austin has turned the ball over only 8 times in the Maroons' last 7 games — the Maroons have gone 3-4 in that stretch. They'll face a stiff test when the two meet. Johnson has taken the ball away 12 times in the Jaguars' last 5 games — the Jaguars have gone 2-3 in that stretch.

STORYLINES

STRENGTH VS. STRENGTH — Austin's pass protection has been playing at a high level over the Maroons' last 5 games. The offensive line has kept the quarterback clean in 3 of the 5 games while averaging 0.6 sacks allowed per game (including a low of 0 in that span vs. East View). That is 77% below the Maroons' baseline of 2.6 per game over the 13 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Maroons have gone 2-3 in that stretch. They'll face a stiff test when the two meet. Johnson's pass rush has been playing at a high level over the Jaguars' last 5 games. Despite recording 3+ sacks in only 1 of the 5 games, the defense has averaged 1.4 sacks per game (including a high of 3 in that span vs. Round Rock Westwood). That is 40% above the Jaguars' baseline of 1.0 per game over the 11 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Jaguars have gone 2-3 in that stretch.

ONE-SIDED — Johnson's rushing offense has been playing at a high level over the Jaguars' last 5 games. The ground game has eclipsed 200 rushing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 332.2 rushing yards per game (including a high of 451 in that span vs. Akins). That is 50% above the Jaguars' baseline of 222.2 yards per game over the 4 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Jaguars have gone 2-3 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Austin. Austin has averaged 174.5 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Austin's rushing offense has been playing at a high level over the Maroons' last 5 games. The ground game has eclipsed 200 rushing yards in 3 of the 5 games while averaging 217.0 rushing yards per game (including a high of 325 in that span vs. Del Valle). That is 78% above the Maroons' baseline of 121.8 yards per game over the 4 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Maroons have gone 3-2 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Johnson. Johnson has averaged 181.1 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

AUS — OFFENSE (8 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+2-01.00060.5W2
YPA < 8.01-5.16716.3L1
Pass Yds 200+--------
Pass Yds < 2003-5.37527.4W2
Rush Yds 100+3-2.60040.0W3
Rush Yds < 1000-3.0006.3L3
Rush Yds 150+3-1.75044.0W3
Rush Yds < 1500-4.00010.8L4
YPC 5.0+3-1.75044.0W3
YPC < 5.00-4.00010.8L4
YPP 6.0+3-1.75044.0W3
YPP < 6.00-4.00010.8L4
YPP 7.0+3-01.00052.0W3
YPP < 7.00-5.00012.6L5
Turnovers 1+2-4.33323.7W1
Turnovers < 11-1.50038.5W1
Turnovers 2+1-2.33313.7L1
Turnovers > 2--------
JOH — OFFENSE (8 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+2-01.00062.0W2
YPA < 8.01-5.16723.3W1
Pass Yds 200+--------
Pass Yds < 2003-5.37533.0W2
Rush Yds 100+3-4.42935.9W2
Rush Yds < 1000-1.00013.0L1
Rush Yds 150+3-3.50040.8W2
Rush Yds < 1500-2.0009.5L2
YPC 5.0+3-3.50040.8W2
YPC < 5.00-2.0009.5L2
YPP 6.0+3-2.60043.4W2
YPP < 6.00-3.00015.7L3
YPP 7.0+2-01.00079.0W2
YPP < 7.01-5.16717.7L3
Turnovers 1+1-5.16717.7L3
Turnovers < 12-01.00079.0W2
Turnovers 2+0-4.00017.8L4
Turnovers > 20-2.00018.5L2
AUS — DEFENSE (8 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+1-2.33333.3L1
YPA < 8.01-2.33319.3W1 2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+1-2.33331.0L1
Pass Yds < 2001-2.33321.7W1 2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+1-4.20026.0W1
Rush Yds < 1001-01.00028.0W1 2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+0-1.00034.0L1
Rush Yds < 1502-3.40024.8W1 2 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+0-3.00033.0L3
YPC < 5.02-1.66719.7W2 2 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+1-4.20031.6L1
YPP < 6.01-01.0000.0W1 2 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+1-2.33334.3L1
YPP < 7.01-2.33318.3W1 2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+2-2.50021.5W2
Turnovers < 11-3.25026.0W1
Turnovers 2+1-1.50026.0W1
Turnovers > 20-1.00024.0L1
JOH — DEFENSE (8 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+0-5.00047.6L5
YPA < 8.01-01.0007.0W1 2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+0-5.00047.6L5
Pass Yds < 2002-01.00016.5W2 1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+1-5.16744.0L3
Rush Yds < 1001-01.0007.0W1 1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+0-4.00045.5L4
Rush Yds < 1502-1.66729.7W2 1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+1-5.16744.0L3
YPC < 5.01-01.0007.0W1 1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+1-5.16744.0L3
YPP < 6.01-01.0007.0W1 1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+1-5.16744.0L3
YPP < 7.01-01.0007.0W1 1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+2-4.33335.2W2
Turnovers < 11-1.50030.0W1
Turnovers 2+2-1.66716.0W2
Turnovers > 22-01.0003.5W2
AUS — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION (8 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Scores <100-2.0003.0
Scores 10-190-1.00013.0
Scores 20-290-2.00022.0
Scores 30-391-01.00035.0
Scores 40+2-01.00060.5
AUS — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION (8 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Allows <102-01.0000.0
Allows 10-19------
Allows 20-291-1.50026.0
Allows 30-390-3.00032.3
Allows 40+0-1.00041.0
JOH — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION (8 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Scores <100-2.0007.5
Scores 10-190-1.00013.0
Scores 20-291-2.33326.0
Scores 30-39------
Scores 40+2-01.00079.0
JOH — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION (8 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Allows <102-01.0003.5
Allows 10-19------
Allows 20-291-01.00026.0
Allows 30-390-1.00034.0
Allows 40+0-4.00051.0
ON THE BRINK

AUSTIN

• AUSTIN has pitched a shutout in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/22/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• AUSTIN has scored 40+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/22/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• AUSTIN has won by 20+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/22/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• AUSTIN has held the opponent under 14 in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/22/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

JOHNSON

• JOHNSON has held the opponent under 14 in 2 straight games (10/9/26–10/16/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• JOHNSON has scored 40+ in 2 straight games (10/9/26–10/16/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• JOHNSON has won by 20+ in 2 straight games (10/9/26–10/16/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• JOHNSON has forced 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/9/26–10/16/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

TAB-SEPARATED (paste into a spreadsheet)
TeamSideSplitGamesRecordWin%PPGStrk
AUSOFFENSEYPA 8.0+22-01.00060.5W2
AUSOFFENSEYPA < 8.061-5.16716.3L1
AUSOFFENSEPass Yds < 20083-5.37527.4W2
AUSOFFENSERush Yds 100+53-2.60040.0W3
AUSOFFENSERush Yds < 10030-3.0006.3L3
AUSOFFENSERush Yds 150+43-1.75044.0W3
AUSOFFENSERush Yds < 15040-4.00010.8L4
AUSOFFENSEYPC 5.0+43-1.75044.0W3
AUSOFFENSEYPC < 5.040-4.00010.8L4
AUSOFFENSEYPP 6.0+43-1.75044.0W3
AUSOFFENSEYPP < 6.040-4.00010.8L4
AUSOFFENSEYPP 7.0+33-01.00052.0W3
AUSOFFENSEYPP < 7.050-5.00012.6L5
AUSOFFENSETurnovers 1+62-4.33323.7W1
AUSOFFENSETurnovers < 121-1.50038.5W1
AUSOFFENSETurnovers 2+31-2.33313.7L1
AUSOFFENSEScores <1020-2.0003.0L2
AUSOFFENSEScores 10-1910-1.00013.0L1
AUSOFFENSEScores 20-2920-2.00022.0L2
AUSOFFENSEScores 30-3911-01.00035.0W1
AUSOFFENSEScores 40+22-01.00060.5W2
AUSDEFENSEYPA 8.0+31-2.33333.3L1
AUSDEFENSEYPA < 8.031-2.33319.3W1
AUSDEFENSEPass Yds 200+31-2.33331.0L1
AUSDEFENSEPass Yds < 20031-2.33321.7W1
AUSDEFENSERush Yds 100+51-4.20026.0W1
AUSDEFENSERush Yds < 10011-01.00028.0W1
AUSDEFENSERush Yds 150+10-1.00034.0L1
AUSDEFENSERush Yds < 15052-3.40024.8W1
AUSDEFENSEYPC 5.0+30-3.00033.0L3
AUSDEFENSEYPC < 5.032-1.66719.7W2
AUSDEFENSEYPP 6.0+51-4.20031.6L1
AUSDEFENSEYPP < 6.011-01.0000.0W1
AUSDEFENSEYPP 7.0+31-2.33334.3L1
AUSDEFENSEYPP < 7.031-2.33318.3W1
AUSDEFENSETurnovers 1+42-2.50021.5W2
AUSDEFENSETurnovers < 141-3.25026.0W1
AUSDEFENSETurnovers 2+21-1.50026.0W1
AUSDEFENSETurnovers > 210-1.00024.0L1
AUSDEFENSEAllows <1022-01.0000.0W2
AUSDEFENSEAllows 20-2921-1.50026.0W1
AUSDEFENSEAllows 30-3930-3.00032.3L3
AUSDEFENSEAllows 40+10-1.00041.0L1
JOHOFFENSEYPA 8.0+22-01.00062.0W2
JOHOFFENSEYPA < 8.061-5.16723.3W1
JOHOFFENSEPass Yds < 20083-5.37533.0W2
JOHOFFENSERush Yds 100+73-4.42935.9W2
JOHOFFENSERush Yds < 10010-1.00013.0L1
JOHOFFENSERush Yds 150+63-3.50040.8W2
JOHOFFENSERush Yds < 15020-2.0009.5L2
JOHOFFENSEYPC 5.0+63-3.50040.8W2
JOHOFFENSEYPC < 5.020-2.0009.5L2
JOHOFFENSEYPP 6.0+53-2.60043.4W2
JOHOFFENSEYPP < 6.030-3.00015.7L3
JOHOFFENSEYPP 7.0+22-01.00079.0W2
JOHOFFENSEYPP < 7.061-5.16717.7L3
JOHOFFENSETurnovers 1+61-5.16717.7L3
JOHOFFENSETurnovers < 122-01.00079.0W2
JOHOFFENSETurnovers 2+40-4.00017.8L4
JOHOFFENSETurnovers > 220-2.00018.5L2
JOHOFFENSEScores <1020-2.0007.5L2
JOHOFFENSEScores 10-1910-1.00013.0L1
JOHOFFENSEScores 20-2931-2.33326.0L2
JOHOFFENSEScores 40+22-01.00079.0W2
JOHDEFENSEYPA 8.0+50-5.00047.6L5
JOHDEFENSEYPA < 8.011-01.0007.0W1
JOHDEFENSEPass Yds 200+50-5.00047.6L5
JOHDEFENSEPass Yds < 20022-01.00016.5W2
JOHDEFENSERush Yds 100+61-5.16744.0L3
JOHDEFENSERush Yds < 10011-01.0007.0W1
JOHDEFENSERush Yds 150+40-4.00045.5L4
JOHDEFENSERush Yds < 15032-1.66729.7W2
JOHDEFENSEYPC 5.0+61-5.16744.0L3
JOHDEFENSEYPC < 5.011-01.0007.0W1
JOHDEFENSEYPP 6.0+61-5.16744.0L3
JOHDEFENSEYPP < 6.011-01.0007.0W1
JOHDEFENSEYPP 7.0+61-5.16744.0L3
JOHDEFENSEYPP < 7.011-01.0007.0W1
JOHDEFENSETurnovers 1+62-4.33335.2W2
JOHDEFENSETurnovers < 121-1.50030.0W1
JOHDEFENSETurnovers 2+32-1.66716.0W2
JOHDEFENSETurnovers > 222-01.0003.5W2
JOHDEFENSEAllows <1022-01.0003.5W2
JOHDEFENSEAllows 20-2911-01.00026.0W1
JOHDEFENSEAllows 30-3910-1.00034.0L1
JOHDEFENSEAllows 40+40-4.00051.0L4
STREAKS: AUS (combined OFFENSE+DEFENSE)
SIDESPLITSTREAKDATESRECORD
OFFENSEPass Yds < 2008 games09/03/2026 - 10/22/20263-5
STREAKS: JOH (combined OFFENSE+DEFENSE)
SIDESPLITSTREAKDATESRECORD
OFFENSEPass Yds < 2008 games08/27/2026 - 10/16/20263-5
OFFENSERush Yds 100+6 games09/11/2026 - 10/16/20263-3
OFFENSERush Yds 150+6 games09/11/2026 - 10/16/20263-3
OFFENSEYPC 5.0+6 games09/11/2026 - 10/16/20263-3
DEFENSETurnovers 1+5 games09/18/2026 - 10/16/20262-3
OFFENSEYPP 6.0+3 games10/02/2026 - 10/16/20262-1
STREAKS — ALL TEAMS
TeamSideSplitStreakDatesRecord
AUSOFFENSEPass Yds < 2008 games09/03/2026 - 10/22/20263-5
JOHOFFENSEPass Yds < 2008 games08/27/2026 - 10/16/20263-5
JOHOFFENSERush Yds 100+6 games09/11/2026 - 10/16/20263-3
JOHOFFENSERush Yds 150+6 games09/11/2026 - 10/16/20263-3
JOHOFFENSEYPC 5.0+6 games09/11/2026 - 10/16/20263-3
JOHDEFENSETurnovers 1+5 games09/18/2026 - 10/16/20262-3
JOHOFFENSEYPP 6.0+3 games10/02/2026 - 10/16/20262-1
MATCHUP CONFLICT POINTS: AUS vs JOH

Each pair of rows above is tinted by the gap between the two teams' win% in that scenario, judged for the HOME team (the bottom row):

GRAY = negligible gap (.000-.050)

PURPLE = solid gap (.051-.150)

GREEN = big gap (.151+), favoring the home team

RED = big gap (.151+), against the home team

AUS OFFENSE vs JOH DEFENSE

100 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFOVER53-2.60040.0W3
JOHDEFOVER61-5.16744.0L3
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFUNDER30-3.0006.3L3
JOHDEFUNDER11-01.0007.0W1
150 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFOVER43-1.75044.0W3
JOHDEFOVER40-4.00045.5L4
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFUNDER40-4.00010.8L4
JOHDEFUNDER32-1.66729.7W2
YPC 5.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFOVER43-1.75044.0W3
JOHDEFOVER61-5.16744.0L3
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFUNDER40-4.00010.8L4
JOHDEFUNDER11-01.0007.0W1
YPA 8.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFOVER22-01.00060.5W2
JOHDEFOVER50-5.00047.6L5
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFUNDER61-5.16716.3L1
JOHDEFUNDER11-01.0007.0W1
200 PASS YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFUNDER83-5.37527.4W2
JOHDEFUNDER22-01.00016.5W2
0 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFZERO21-1.50038.5W1
JOHDEFZERO21-1.50030.0W1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFOVER62-4.33323.7W1
JOHDEFOVER62-4.33335.2W2
2+ TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFOVER31-2.33313.7L1
JOHDEFOVER32-1.66716.0W2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFUNDER52-3.40035.6W2
JOHDEFUNDER51-4.20044.6L2
>2 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFUNDER83-5.37527.4W2
JOHDEFUNDER61-5.16744.0L3
YPP 6.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFOVER43-1.75044.0W3
JOHDEFOVER61-5.16744.0L3
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFUNDER40-4.00010.8L4
JOHDEFUNDER11-01.0007.0W1
YPP 7.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFOVER33-01.00052.0W3
JOHDEFOVER61-5.16744.0L3
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSOFFUNDER50-5.00012.6L5
JOHDEFUNDER11-01.0007.0W1

JOH OFFENSE vs AUS DEFENSE

100 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFOVER51-4.20026.0W1
JOHOFFOVER73-4.42935.9W2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFUNDER11-01.00028.0W1
JOHOFFUNDER10-1.00013.0L1
150 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFOVER10-1.00034.0L1
JOHOFFOVER63-3.50040.8W2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFUNDER52-3.40024.8W1
JOHOFFUNDER20-2.0009.5L2
YPC 5.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFOVER30-3.00033.0L3
JOHOFFOVER63-3.50040.8W2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFUNDER32-1.66719.7W2
JOHOFFUNDER20-2.0009.5L2
YPA 8.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFOVER31-2.33333.3L1
JOHOFFOVER22-01.00062.0W2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFUNDER31-2.33319.3W1
JOHOFFUNDER61-5.16723.3W1
200 PASS YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFUNDER31-2.33321.7W1
JOHOFFUNDER83-5.37533.0W2
0 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFZERO41-3.25026.0W1
JOHOFFZERO22-01.00079.0W2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFOVER42-2.50021.5W2
JOHOFFOVER61-5.16717.7L3
2+ TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFOVER21-1.50026.0W1
JOHOFFOVER40-4.00017.8L4
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFUNDER62-4.33323.0W2
JOHOFFUNDER43-1.75048.2W3
>2 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFOVER10-1.00024.0L1
JOHOFFOVER20-2.00018.5L2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFUNDER73-4.42923.7W2
JOHOFFUNDER63-3.50037.8W2
YPP 6.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFOVER51-4.20031.6L1
JOHOFFOVER53-2.60043.4W2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFUNDER11-01.0000.0W1
JOHOFFUNDER30-3.00015.7L3
YPP 7.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFOVER31-2.33334.3L1
JOHOFFOVER22-01.00079.0W2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
AUSDEFUNDER31-2.33318.3W1
JOHOFFUNDER61-5.16717.7L3

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

NOTABLE TRENDS (24 of 24 found, team |deviation| >= 20%, matchup |deviation| >= 20%)

AUS OFFENSE

AUS's offense has averaged 41.3 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 27.4 points scored per game. (+51%)

AUS's offense has averaged 8.8 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 6.4 YPA. (+39%)

AUS's offense has averaged 7.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 5.8 YPP. (+36%)

AUS's offense has averaged 7.4 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 5.5 YPC. (+35%)

AUS's offense has averaged 1.4 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 1.1 giveaways per game. (+24%)

AUS's offense has averaged 232.7 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 189.0 rush yards per game. (+23%)

AUS's offense has averaged 355.3 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 294.2 total yards per game. (+21%)

JOH OFFENSE

JOH's offense has averaged 59.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 33.0 points scored per game. (+81%)

JOH's offense has averaged 22.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 66.5 pass yards per game. (-66%)

JOH's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.5 giveaways per game. (-56%)

JOH's offense has averaged 9.9 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 6.9 YPC. (+43%)

JOH's offense has averaged 375.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 270.0 rush yards per game. (+39%)

JOH's offense has averaged 9.6 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 7.0 YPP. (+37%)

AUS DEFENSE

AUS's defense has averaged 0.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (-67%)

AUS's defense has averaged 13.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 23.8 points allowed per game. (-42%)

AUS's defense has averaged 109.2 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 6-game average is 146.3 rush yards per game. (-25%)

AUS's defense has averaged 4.2 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 6-game average is 5.3 YPC. (-21%)

JOH DEFENSE

JOH's defense has averaged 3.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.6 takeaways per game. (+85%)

JOH's defense has averaged 18.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 33.9 points allowed per game. (-45%)

JOH's defense has averaged 7.1 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 6-game average is 10.2 YPA. (-30%)

JOH's defense has averaged 5.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 8.4 YPP. (-29%)

JOH's defense has averaged 211.5 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 274.1 pass yards per game. (-23%)

JOH's defense has averaged 336.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 432.7 total yards per game. (-22%)

JOH's defense has averaged 124.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 158.6 rush yards per game. (-21%)

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 2, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

APPENDIX

Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.

Explanatory Notes

Note 1 -- GAME PROJECTION -- FULL DETAIL (report pages 1-2)

Library-native projection: computed directly from the game library (slate_projection.SlateEngine), not the Excel workbook engine. This section does not yet include: an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only).

Note 2 -- SEASON OUTLOOK

Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).

Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored

Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.

Full Data Exports

Data Export 1 -- MATCHUP CONFLICTS — TAB-SEPARATED (13 columns)

Team1Side1Split1Record1Win%1PPG1Team2Side2Split2Record2Win%2PPG2Relevance
AUSOFFENSERush Yds < 1500-4.00010.8JOHDEFENSERush Yds 150+0-4.00045.51.000
JOHOFFENSEYPC < 5.00-2.0009.5AUSDEFENSEYPC 5.0+0-3.00033.01.000
AUSOFFENSEYPP 7.0+3-01.00052.0JOHDEFENSEYPP < 7.01-01.0007.01.000
AUSOFFENSEYPA 8.0+2-01.00060.5JOHDEFENSEYPA < 8.01-01.0007.01.000
JOHOFFENSERush Yds < 1500-2.0009.5AUSDEFENSERush Yds 150+0-1.00034.01.000
AUSOFFENSEYPA < 8.01-5.16716.3JOHDEFENSEYPA 8.0+0-5.00047.60.833
AUSOFFENSEYPP < 7.00-5.00012.6JOHDEFENSEYPP 7.0+1-5.16744.00.833
AUSOFFENSEYPC < 5.00-4.00010.8JOHDEFENSEYPC 5.0+1-5.16744.00.833
AUSOFFENSEYPP < 6.00-4.00010.8JOHDEFENSEYPP 6.0+1-5.16744.00.833
AUSOFFENSERush Yds < 1000-3.0006.3JOHDEFENSERush Yds 100+1-5.16744.00.833
JOHOFFENSEYPP < 6.00-3.00015.7AUSDEFENSEYPP 6.0+1-4.20031.60.800
JOHOFFENSERush Yds < 1000-1.00013.0AUSDEFENSERush Yds 100+1-4.20026.00.800
AUSOFFENSEYPC 5.0+3-1.75044.0JOHDEFENSEYPC < 5.01-01.0007.00.750
AUSOFFENSEYPP 6.0+3-1.75044.0JOHDEFENSEYPP < 6.01-01.0007.00.750
JOHOFFENSEYPA 8.0+2-01.00062.0AUSDEFENSEYPA < 8.01-2.33319.30.667
JOHOFFENSEYPP 7.0+2-01.00079.0AUSDEFENSEYPP < 7.01-2.33318.30.667
AUSOFFENSEPass Yds < 2003-5.37527.4JOHDEFENSEPass Yds 200+0-5.00047.60.625
AUSOFFENSERush Yds 100+3-2.60040.0JOHDEFENSERush Yds < 1001-01.0007.00.600
JOHOFFENSEYPP 6.0+3-2.60043.4AUSDEFENSEYPP < 6.01-01.0000.00.600
JOHOFFENSETurnovers 1+1-5.16717.7AUSDEFENSETurnovers < 11-3.25026.00.583
JOHOFFENSERush Yds 100+3-4.42935.9AUSDEFENSERush Yds < 1001-01.00028.00.571
JOHOFFENSEYPA < 8.01-5.16723.3AUSDEFENSEYPA 8.0+1-2.33333.30.500
JOHOFFENSEYPP < 7.01-5.16717.7AUSDEFENSEYPP 7.0+1-2.33334.30.500
JOHOFFENSETurnovers < 12-01.00079.0AUSDEFENSETurnovers 1+2-2.50021.50.500
AUSOFFENSERush Yds 150+3-1.75044.0JOHDEFENSERush Yds < 1502-1.66729.70.417
JOHOFFENSEPass Yds < 2003-5.37533.0AUSDEFENSEPass Yds 200+1-2.33331.00.292
AUSOFFENSETurnovers 1+2-4.33323.7JOHDEFENSETurnovers < 11-1.50030.00.167
AUSOFFENSETurnovers < 11-1.50038.5JOHDEFENSETurnovers 1+2-4.33335.20.167
JOHOFFENSEYPC 5.0+3-3.50040.8AUSDEFENSEYPC < 5.02-1.66719.70.167
JOHOFFENSERush Yds 150+3-3.50040.8AUSDEFENSERush Yds < 1502-3.40024.80.100

Data Export 2 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)

TeamSideTypeStatOpponentWindow/MeetingsValueBaselineGamesBaselineAvgDeviation
AUSDEFENSEteamPointslast 313.7823.8-42.5%
AUSOFFENSEteamPointslast 341.3827.4+51.0%
AUSDEFENSEteamRush Yardslast 5109.26146.3-25.3%
AUSOFFENSEteamRush Yardslast 3232.78189.0+23.1%
AUSOFFENSEteamTotal Yardslast 3355.38294.2+20.8%
AUSDEFENSEteamTurnoverslast 30.381.0-66.7%
AUSOFFENSEteamTurnoverslast 51.481.1+24.4%
AUSOFFENSEteamYPAlast 38.886.4+38.6%
AUSDEFENSEteamYPClast 54.265.3-21.0%
AUSOFFENSEteamYPClast 37.485.5+34.5%
AUSOFFENSEteamYPPlast 37.885.8+36.0%
JOHDEFENSEteamPass Yardslast 3211.57274.1-22.9%
JOHOFFENSEteamPass Yardslast 322.7866.5-65.9%
JOHDEFENSEteamPointslast 318.7833.9-44.9%
JOHOFFENSEteamPointslast 359.7833.0+80.8%
JOHDEFENSEteamRush Yardslast 3124.57158.6-21.5%
JOHOFFENSEteamRush Yardslast 3375.38270.0+39.0%
JOHDEFENSEteamTotal Yardslast 3336.07432.7-22.4%
JOHDEFENSEteamTurnoverslast 33.081.6+84.6%
JOHOFFENSEteamTurnoverslast 30.781.5-55.6%
JOHDEFENSEteamYPAlast 37.1610.2-30.3%
JOHOFFENSEteamYPClast 39.986.9+42.7%
JOHDEFENSEteamYPPlast 35.978.4-29.3%
JOHOFFENSEteamYPPlast 39.687.0+36.7%
AUS — ROSTER (25) 26-27
#NAMEPOSCLASS
QUARTERBACKS
11ALIJAH JABLON
PASS 41/93 · 44.1% · 570 YDS · 6.1 YPA · 6 TD · 3 INT · 71.2/G
RUSH 54 CAR · 437 YDS · 8.1 YPC · 5 TD · 54.6/G
QBSr.
12WHIT DAVENPORT
PASS 17/49 · 34.7% · 252 YDS · 5.1 YPA · 3 TD · 1 INT · 42.0/G
RUSH 12 CAR · -20 YDS · -1.7 YPC · 0 TD · -3.3/G
QBSr.
RUNNING BACKS
2NIKO GABRYLUK-MELENDEZ
RUSH 101 CAR · 468 YDS · 4.6 YPC · 5 TD · 78.0/G
REC 5 REC · 74 YDS · 14.8 YPC · 0 TD · 12.3/G
RBSr.
3CALEB DELEON
RUSH 46 CAR · 254 YDS · 5.5 YPC · 2 TD · 42.3/G
REC 2 REC · 13 YDS · 6.5 YPC · 1 TD · 2.2/G
RBSr.
15WYATT PAUL
REC 1 REC · 9 YDS · 9.0 YPC · 0 TD · 9.0/G
FBSr.
34GEORGE MURCHISON
RUSH 26 CAR · 223 YDS · 8.6 YPC · 2 TD · 74.3/G
RBSo.
RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS
4ELI ERICKSON
REC 3 REC · 36 YDS · 12.0 YPC · 0 TD · 18.0/G
WRSr.
5BRADY FORD
RUSH 5 CAR · 26 YDS · 5.2 YPC · 0 TD · 5.2/G
REC 5 REC · 132 YDS · 26.4 YPC · 2 TD · 26.4/G
WRSr.
10DAVIS DEERING
RUSH 3 CAR · 38 YDS · 12.7 YPC · 1 TD · 5.4/G
REC 14 REC · 203 YDS · 14.5 YPC · 3 TD · 29.0/G
TEJr.
13CHASE PERKINS
REC 1 REC · 10 YDS · 10.0 YPC · 0 TD · 10.0/G
WRSr.
82DAVIDSON SMITH
RUSH 1 CAR · 1 YDS · 1.0 YPC · 0 TD · 0.3/G
REC 6 REC · 56 YDS · 9.3 YPC · 0 TD · 18.7/G
WRJr.
87ENZO HOOPMAN
RUSH 2 CAR · 9 YDS · 4.5 YPC · 1 TD · 1.1/G
REC 19 REC · 255 YDS · 13.4 YPC · 2 TD · 31.9/G
WRSr.
LINEBACKERS
28ETHAN KAHLE
RUSH 3 CAR · 1 YDS · 0.3 YPC · 0 TD · 1.0/G
MLBSr.
JOH — ROSTER (88) 26-27
#NAMEPOSCLASS
QUARTERBACKS
4JONAH MONTGOMERY
PASS 35/75 · 46.7% · 453 YDS · 6.0 YPA · 4 TD · 4 INT · 75.5/G
RUSH 61 CAR · 378 YDS · 6.2 YPC · 6 TD · 63.0/G
QBSr.
RUNNING BACKS
21BOWEN SPENCER
RUSH 2 CAR · 14 YDS · 7.0 YPC · 1 TD · 14.0/G
HBJr.
22MADDOX MARTINEZ
RUSH 56 CAR · 255 YDS · 4.6 YPC · 3 TD · 42.5/G
REC 2 REC · 2 YDS · 1.0 YPC · 0 TD · 0.3/G
RBSr.
RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS
1DEVAN BROWN
RUSH 9 CAR · 98 YDS · 10.9 YPC · 1 TD · 16.3/G
REC 19 REC · 223 YDS · 11.7 YPC · 3 TD · 37.2/G
WRSr.
5JAYDEN GARCIA
RUSH 3 CAR · 6 YDS · 2.0 YPC · 1 TD · 1.0/G
REC 2 REC · 21 YDS · 10.5 YPC · 0 TD · 3.5/G
DEF 16 TKL · 2.7 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRSr.
7WESTIN WINBURN
RUSH 2 CAR · 18 YDS · 9.0 YPC · 0 TD · 3.6/G
REC 5 REC · 75 YDS · 15.0 YPC · 1 TD · 15.0/G
WRSr.
13MARCUS WINN JR.
REC 1 REC · 13 YDS · 13.0 YPC · 0 TD · 13.0/G
TEJr.
14DAMARI HERRING
RUSH 30 CAR · 281 YDS · 9.4 YPC · 1 TD · 46.8/G
REC 4 REC · 53 YDS · 13.2 YPC · 0 TD · 8.8/G
WRJr.
15ANDERSON HATNOT
RUSH 5 CAR · 26 YDS · 5.2 YPC · 1 TD · 26.0/G
WRSr.
84LINCOLN RITTER
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRJr.
85DARNELL ANDERSON
REC 1 REC · 46 YDS · 46.0 YPC · 0 TD · 23.0/G
DEF 1 TKL · 0.5 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRSr.
85TJ STEPHENS
RUSH 1 CAR · 5 YDS · 5.0 YPC · 0 TD · 5.0/G
WRSr.
DEFENSIVE LINE
9PAYTON WOLFE
DEF 8 TKL · 4.0 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DESr.
11CHANCE GIBBS
DEF 6 TKL · 6.0 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DEJr.
19JOSEPH ROLLINS
DEF 15 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DESr.
38CLAYTON VINSON
DEF 20 TKL · 3.3 TKL/G · 6 TFL · 3.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DESr.
41JADEN HERNANDEZ
DEF 9 TKL · 1.8 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DEJr.
44KIAN MAREK
DEF 2 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DESr.
92LUCAS MORENO
DEF 10 TKL · 2.5 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DTSr.
LINEBACKERS
8FERNANDO SALDANA
DEF 44 TKL · 7.3 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
ILBSo.
17BRAYDEN RAMIREZ
DEF 16 TKL · 4.0 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLBSr.
18PATRICK ISAAK
DEF 6 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLBSr.
20TRENT POTTS
DEF 50 TKL · 8.3 TKL/G · 8 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
OLBJr.
54BRYAN DE LA VEGA
DEF 4 TKL · 4.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
MLBSr.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
0JORDAN STEWARD
RUSH 16 CAR · 65 YDS · 4.1 YPC · 1 TD · 13.0/G
REC 1 REC · 0 YDS · 0.0 YPC · 0 TD · 0.0/G
DEF 33 TKL · 6.6 TKL/G · 5 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
FSSr.
2SHAIN SPENCER
DEF 23 TKL · 3.8 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 2 INT
CBSr.
10COOPER MILLS
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
CBSr.
25PRESTON DUBRULE
DEF 25 TKL · 6.2 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
SSSo.
32EMMANUEL ORTIZ
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
FSSr.
47KASHTON AGUIRRE
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
FSSr.
SPECIAL TEAMS
36RIGOBERTO ALONSO-VENCES
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
PJr.
OTHER / UNLISTED POSITION
3BRAYDEN DURAND
RUSH 16 CAR · 102 YDS · 6.4 YPC · 2 TD · 17.0/G
REC 1 REC · 15 YDS · 15.0 YPC · 0 TD · 2.5/G
--Sr.
6BRADEN BRICKENS
REC 1 REC · 29 YDS · 29.0 YPC · 0 TD · 29.0/G
--Sr.
16DANIEL TRINIDAD
PASS 2/4 · 50.0% · 24 YDS · 6.0 YPA · 0 TD · 0 INT · 12.0/G
RUSH 6 CAR · 67 YDS · 11.2 YPC · 0 TD · 33.5/G
--Jr.
23BENNY OCHOA
RUSH 6 CAR · 73 YDS · 12.2 YPC · 1 TD · 36.5/G
--Jr.
28AYDEN JOHNSON
RUSH 10 CAR · 97 YDS · 9.7 YPC · 1 TD · 32.3/G
--Jr.
34TYLER VINSON
DEF 13 TKL · 3.2 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
40LEVI GARCIA
DEF 18 TKL · 3.6 TKL/G · 6 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--So.
50MAXIMUS FLORES
DEF 5 TKL · 1.7 TKL/G · 3 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
99AUSTIN COLEMAN
DEF 5 TKL · 1.7 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED 10/29/2026 07:52