In short: Tex. A&m-Kingsville Division II college football, 2026 season: 4-5 (Lone Star). Last game: L 14-37 vs Midwestern St. on October 31, 2026. Next: at Ut Permian Basin, November 14, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The turnover battle could decide Tex. A&m-Kingsville's next game, against Ut Permian Basin, and the recent returns favor Ut Permian Basin. Tex. A&m-Kingsville forced 3.0 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #3 in D-II in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Javelinas have forced 1.4 takeaways per game, a 53% drop, #86 in D-II in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Tex. A&m-Kingsville's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.6 per game, a #102 offense in D-II on the season, against 1.8 per game, #122 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Tex. A&m-Kingsville forced 13% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Meanwhile, Ut Permian Basin's ball security has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Falcons have committed 1.6 giveaways per game over their last 5 games (3-2), #79 in D-II during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in D-II (1.5 per game on the season, which would rank #89). Against those norms, Ut Permian Basin turned it over 8% more than those defenses usually force. Ut Permian Basin offers Tex. A&m-Kingsville a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
The number to watch when Tex. A&m-Kingsville meets Ut Permian Basin is Tex. A&m-Kingsville's scoring defense. Tex. A&m-Kingsville allowed 29.2 points per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #97 in D-II through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Javelinas have allowed 42.0 points per game, a 44% rise, #147 in D-II through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Tex. A&m-Kingsville's last 4 opponents have averaged 38.1 points per game, a #16 offense in D-II on the season, against 32.6 points per game, #44 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (38.1 points per game), Tex. A&m-Kingsville allowed 10% more than those offenses usually score. Meanwhile, Ut Permian Basin's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Falcons have averaged 19.0 points per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #124 in D-II over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in D-II (29.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #106). Against those norms, Ut Permian Basin scored 36% less than those defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Tex. A&m-Kingsville is 3-1 this season when it holds opponents under 34, and 1-4 when it doesn't.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Tex. A&m-Kingsville's season has been the direction of its run defense. Tex. A&m-Kingsville allowed 3.9 yards per carry (921 yards on 238 rushes) over its first 5 games (3-2), #58 in D-II within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Javelinas have allowed 5.1 yards per carry (981 yards on 192 rushes), a 32% rise, #127 in D-II across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.0 yards per carry on the season. On the season, Tex. A&m-Kingsville ranks #94 in D-II in run defense. Ut Permian Basin's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #70 in D-II (4.3 yards per carry). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Ut Permian Basin the edge: Tex. A&m-Kingsville's front grades -1.2 against Ut Permian Basin's offensive line at +0.3 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
The Javelinas averaged 6.3 yards per pass attempt (702 yards on 111 attempts) over their first 3 games (1-2), #117 in D-II during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 6 games since that slow start (3-3), Tex. A&m-Kingsville has averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt (1,941 yards on 232 attempts), a 32% rise, #37 in D-II during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.9 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.9 yards per attempt), Tex. A&m-Kingsville threw for 6% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. On the season, the Javelinas rank #54 in D-II in passing. Ut Permian Basin's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #65 in D-II (6.8 yards per attempt). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: Tex. A&m-Kingsville's offensive line and Ut Permian Basin's front grade out about even.
Tex. A&m-Kingsville's offense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Tex. A&m-Kingsville averaged 36.8 points per game over its first 6 games (4-2), #24 in D-II during that stretch. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Javelinas have averaged 25.7 points per game, a 30% drop, #84 in D-II over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Tex. A&m-Kingsville's last 3 opponents have averaged 25.9 points per game, a #80 scoring defense in D-II on the season, against 36.2 points per game, #139 for the first 6. Tex. A&m-Kingsville was held to 14 points or fewer 2 times in those games, including 14 against Angelo St. on 10/24. On the season, Tex. A&m-Kingsville ranks #40 in D-II in scoring. Ut Permian Basin's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #55 in D-II (23.2 points per game). Tex. A&m-Kingsville is 4-2 this season when it scores 24 or more, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
Something changed for Tex. A&m-Kingsville's pass defense after its first 3 games. The Javelinas allowed 9.8 yards per pass attempt (702 yards on 72 attempts) over their first 3 games (1-2), #148 in D-II over that timeframe. In the 6 games since that slow start (3-3), Tex. A&m-Kingsville has allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt (1,127 yards on 163 attempts), a 29% drop, #72 in D-II over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 8.2 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.9 yards per attempt), Tex. A&m-Kingsville held those passing attacks 13% below their usual yards per attempt. On the season, the Javelinas rank #114 in D-II in pass defense. Ut Permian Basin's passing game sits in the middle of the pack, #107 in D-II (6.7 yards per attempt). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Ut Permian Basin the edge: Tex. A&m-Kingsville's front grades -1.2 against Ut Permian Basin's offensive line at +0.3 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
One of Tex. A&m-Kingsville's shakiest areas lately has been its defense. Tex. A&m-Kingsville allowed 5.1 yards per play (1,860 yards on 363 snaps) over its first 5 games (3-2), #41 in D-II in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Javelinas have allowed 6.2 yards per play (1,871 yards on 302 snaps), a 21% rise, #121 in D-II in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.3 yards per play on the season. On the season, Tex. A&m-Kingsville ranks #84 in D-II in yards per play allowed. Ut Permian Basin's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #83 in D-II (5.6 yards per play). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Ut Permian Basin the edge: Tex. A&m-Kingsville's front grades -1.2 against Ut Permian Basin's offensive line at +0.3 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Tex. A&m-Kingsville has played a tougher-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#50 of 160), and what is left is a tougher-than-average slate (#24 of 132).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#50 of 160
avg opponent rating -1.4 over 10 games · 2 vs top-25 D-II
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#24 of 132
avg opponent rating +12.5 over 1 games · 1 vs top-25
Northwes… L 3-48@Saginaw … L 24-41Eastern … W 56-22@Western … W 52-14West Tex… W 28-21@Western … W 58-51Central … L 49-52@Angelo S… L 14-28Midweste… L 14-37Sul Ross…@Ut Permi…
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 31 game; last updated Nov 1; roster and numbers checked Sep 18.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 82.7/100 (+58 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 44.6/100 (-15 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 67.5/100 (-18 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 57.4/100 (-9 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-11-07
vs
SUL ROSS ST.
2-7
25.8
2026-11-14
at
UT PERMIAN BASIN
6-3
33.9
LAST YEAR
TA finished 2025 at 5-6. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 24-19 over ANGELO ST. (ANGELO ST. finished 55% that season). Toughest loss: 21-24 to CENTRAL WASH. (3-point margin).
• [CLUB] Tex. A&m-kingsville has lost 3 straight, and a loss would make it 4 in a row. The last time they lost 4 or more in a row was 2022, a run of 5.
• [CLUB] Tex. A&m-kingsville has gone 7 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards (September 19, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 4-3 over that stretch, a school-record 7 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• [CLUB] Tex. A&m-kingsville has gone 4 straight games allowing 6.0+ yards per play (October 10, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 1-3 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• [CLUB] Tex. A&m-kingsville is 13-0 all time when averaging 5.0+ yards per carry in the games on file (13 such games).
• [CLUB] Tex. A&m-kingsville is 15-1 all time when allowing 10-19 points. Tex. A&m-kingsville's last loss when allowing 10-19 points was August 29, 2024 against Colorado Mesa (L, 13-16).
• [CLUB] Tex. A&m-kingsville is 14-2 all time when averaging 8.0+ yards per attempt. Tex. A&m-kingsville's last loss when averaging 8.0+ yards per attempt was October 17, 2026 against Central Wash. (L, 49-52).
• [CLUB] Tex. A&m-kingsville has scored 215 points over its last 6 games (35.8 a game, September 26, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- its 5th-highest 6-game total on record; the most is 240, from November 1, 2025 through September 19, 2026.
• [CLUB] Tex. A&m-kingsville has allowed 117 points over its last 3 games (39.0 a game, October 17, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- its 3rd-highest 3-game total on record; the most is 127, from November 5, 2022 through December 3, 2022.
• [CLUB] Tex. A&m-kingsville has gone 4 straight games throwing for 200+ yards (October 10, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 1-3 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (11 games).
• [PLAYER] Mills Dawson has gone 8 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• [PLAYER] Edward Chumley has 486 rushing yards over his last 4 games (121.5 a game, October 3, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Mills Dawson has 1327 passing yards over his last 4 games (331.8 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Christian Kretz has 622 receiving yards over his last 4 games (155.5 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Christian Kretz has 6 touchdown catches over his last 5 games (1.2 a game, October 3, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Kenhide Atunrase has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Tex. A&m-kingsville, over a 19-game career on record. His career high is 73, set November 1, 2025 against West Tex. A&m (L, 48-53).
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
TA HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• TA averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.999), and has won 13 straight when doing so
• TA rushes for 100+ yards (.690), but most recently lost to Midwestern St. when doing so
• TA commits fewer than 3 giveaways (.700), but most recently lost to Midwestern St. when doing so
• TA holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.683), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• TA's defense has averaged 256.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 53-game average is 142.5 rush yards per game. (+80%)
• TA's defense has conceded 100+ rush yds in 7 straight games (09/19/2026-10/31/2026), going 4-3 over that stretch.
• TA holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per play (TA's own median) (.923)
• TA's defense has averaged 39.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 53-game average is 24.6 points allowed per game. (+59%)
• TA's defense has averaged 5.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 53-game average is 3.5 YPC. (+50%)
• TA's offense has exceeded 200 pass yds in 4 straight games (10/10/2026-10/31/2026), going 1-3 over that stretch.
• TA's defense has conceded 150+ rush yds in 4 straight games (10/10/2026-10/31/2026), going 1-3 over that stretch.
• TA's defense has forced 1+ turnover in 4 straight games (10/10/2026-10/31/2026), going 1-3 over that stretch.
• TA's defense has averaged 479.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 53-game average is 344.0 total yards per game. (+39%)
• TA holds its opponents under 6.8 yards per attempt (TA's own median) (.808)
• TA's offense has averaged 315.2 pass yards per game over their last 12 games. Their 53-game average is 229.3 pass yards per game. (+38%)
• TEX. A&M-KINGSVILLE has let one player score 3+ TDs in 3 straight games (10/17/26–10/31/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• TEX. A&M-KINGSVILLE has allowed 400+ total yards in 4 straight games (10/10/26–10/31/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• TEX. A&M-KINGSVILLE has lost 3 straight (10/17/26–10/31/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
TA's defense has averaged 256.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 53-game average is 142.5 rush yards per game. (+80%)
TA's defense has averaged 39.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 53-game average is 24.6 points allowed per game. (+59%)
TA's defense has averaged 5.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 53-game average is 3.5 YPC. (+50%)
TA's defense has averaged 479.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 53-game average is 344.0 total yards per game. (+39%)
TA's defense has averaged 1.4 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 53-game average is 1.9 takeaways per game. (-27%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where TEX. A&M-KINGSVILLE sits among 160 D2 teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 63.5, Defense Grade 62.4.
PASS YARDS / GAME: TEX. A&M-KINGSVILLE VS THE D2
TEX. A&M-KINGSVILLE ranks #12 of 160 D2 teams in passing yards per game (293.7) -- a strength worth a look.
TEX. A&M-KINGSVILLE: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- 2.0 in 2022 to -0.7 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
2.74 points per offensive possession (97 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 60.4% success rate, 20.8% explosive play rate (48 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
10
rush 90%, pass 10%
1 & medium
5
rush 60%, pass 40%
1 & long
219
pass 52%, rush 47%, sack 1%
2 & short
29
rush 59%, pass 34%, sack 7%
2 & medium
54
rush 56%, pass 43%, sack 2%
2 & long
80
pass 50%, rush 49%, sack 1%
3 & short
38
rush 55%, pass 45%
3 & medium
30
pass 73%, rush 23%, sack 3%
3 & long
35
pass 74%, rush 20%, sack 6%
4 & short
10
rush 60%, pass 30%, sack 10%
4 & medium
3
pass 67%, rush 33%
4 & long
4
pass 100%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
2 of 6 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: -1.7 final vs. -1.0 before garbage time — this team gets padded on (-0.7 pts/game)
Biggest swing: 17 points, vs. Northwest Mo. St. on 2026-08-29 (-45 final, -28 real)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
ADVANCED PLAYER STATS
MILLS DAWSON (QB): EPA not on file yet, 31.7% success rate, 64 dropbacks
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
Final 2 Minutes of a Half
How a player performed in the last two minutes of either half -- the clock-management, high-pressure stretch at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Inputs: Every play on file in the 2nd or 4th quarter with 2:00 or less on the clock this player was involved in. Same field-position/clock coverage caveat as Red Zone Splits above -- roughly a third of plays leaguewide carry a usable clock reading, concentrated in FBS/FCS games.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
11/08/2026 16:13
