In short: Southern California FBS college football, 2026 season: 7-2 (Big Ten). Last game: W 30-18 vs Ohio St. on October 31, 2026. Next: at Indiana, November 14, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The number to watch when Southern California meets Indiana is Southern California's scoring. Southern California averaged 43.0 points per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #14 in FBS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), the Trojans have averaged 24.0 points per game, a 44% drop, #81 in FBS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Southern California's last 5 opponents have averaged 18.8 points per game, a #25 scoring defense in FBS on the season, against 24.3 points per game, #67 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (18.8 points per game), Southern California scored 28% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Conversely, Indiana's defense has been one of FBS's better units in recent weeks. The Hoosiers have allowed 14.6 points per game over their last 5 games (4-1), #9 in FBS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in FBS (28.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #70). Against those norms, Indiana held those offenses 49% below what they usually score. Southern California's offense has held up better than the raw numbers suggest, which makes this a closer matchup than the recent results imply.
Third down could decide Southern California's next game, against Indiana, and the recent returns favor Indiana. Southern California converted 63.6% of third downs (28-for-44) over its first 4 games (4-0), #3 in FBS through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), the Trojans have converted 37.7% of third downs (20-for-53), a 41% drop, #83 in FBS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Southern California's last 5 opponents have averaged 34.6%, a #34 third-down defense in FBS on the season, against 39.8%, #83 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (34.6%), Southern California converted third downs 9% more often than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Conversely, Indiana's third-down defense has been one of FBS's better units in recent weeks. The Hoosiers have allowed 35.3% of third downs (24-for-68) over their last 5 games (4-1), #39 in FBS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of third-down offenses in FBS (42.2% on the season, which would rank #65). Against those norms, Indiana held those offenses 16% below their usual third-down rate. Southern California's third-down offense has held up better than the raw numbers suggest, which makes this a closer matchup than the recent results imply.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Southern California's season has been the direction of its defense. Southern California allowed 18.7 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #50 in FBS within that period. In the 6 games since that hot start (4-2), the Trojans have allowed 27.0 points per game, a 45% rise, #80 in FBS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Southern California's last 6 opponents have averaged 29.5 points per game, a #62 offense in FBS on the season, against 26.3 points per game, #86 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (29.5 points per game), Southern California held those offenses 8% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Southern California ranks #65 in FBS in scoring defense. Indiana's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #42 in FBS (32.4 points per game). Southern California is 6-1 this season when it holds opponents under 33, and 1-1 when it doesn't.
The Trojans allowed 42.3% of third downs (22-for-52) over their first 5 games (4-1), #101 in FBS during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), Southern California has allowed 26.5% of third downs (9-for-34), a 37% drop, #10 in FBS during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 38.8% on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (40.1%), Southern California held those offenses 34% below their usual third-down rate. On the season, the Trojans rank #45 in FBS in third-down defense. Indiana's third-down offense sits in the middle of the pack, #51 in FBS (43.6%).
Southern California's ground game from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Southern California averaged 4.7 yards per carry (822 yards on 176 rushes) over its first 5 games (4-1), #69 in FBS during that stretch. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), the Trojans have averaged 3.0 yards per carry (342 yards on 113 rushes), a 35% drop, #126 in FBS over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Southern California's last 4 opponents have averaged 3.7 yards per carry, a #42 run defense in FBS on the season, against 4.5 yards per carry, #91 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (3.7 yards per carry), Southern California ran for 18% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, Southern California ranks #98 in FBS in rushing. It won't get any easier against Indiana, whose run defense ranks #2 in FBS (2.3 yards per carry). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Indiana the edge: Southern California's offensive line grades +2.0 against Indiana's front at +4.1 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
Something changed for Southern California's red-zone offense after its first 3 games. The Trojans scored touchdowns on 77.8% of their red-zone trips (14 of 18) over their first 3 games (3-0), #19 in FBS over that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (4-2), Southern California has scored touchdowns on 54.2% of its red-zone trips (13 of 24), a 30% drop, #82 in FBS over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 53.7% on the season. On the season, the Trojans rank #42 in FBS in red-zone offense. It won't get any easier against Indiana, whose red-zone defense ranks #11 in FBS (38.9%).
As the schedule has stiffened, Southern California has misfired through the air. Southern California averaged 10.1 yards per pass attempt (1,299 yards on 129 attempts) over its first 4 games (4-0), #12 in FBS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), the Trojans have averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt (1,351 yards on 181 attempts), a 26% drop, #57 in FBS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Southern California's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.1 yards per attempt, a #23 pass defense in FBS on the season, against 7.0 yards per attempt, #62 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.1 yards per attempt), Southern California threw for 22% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Southern California ranks #22 in FBS in passing. It won't get any easier against Indiana, whose pass defense ranks #22 in FBS (6.1 yards per attempt). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Indiana the edge: Southern California's offensive line grades +2.0 against Indiana's front at +4.1 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Southern California has played one of the toughest schedules in the pool so far (#9 of 138), and what is left is a tougher-than-average slate (#29 of 138).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#9 of 138
avg opponent rating +48.7 over 9 games · 3 vs top-25 FBS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#29 of 138
avg opponent rating +51.4 over 3 games · 1 vs top-25
San Jose… W 42-26Fresno S… W 39-0Louisiana W 49-30@Rutgers W 42-35Oregon L 27-41Washingt… W 25-21@Penn St. W 31-23@Wisconsin L 7-24Ohio St. W 30-18@IndianaMaryland@UCLA
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 31 game; last updated Nov 1; roster and numbers checked Sep 17.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 99.6/100 (+162 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 79.1/100 (+45 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 75.1/100 (-27 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 77.9/100 (-43 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-11-14
at
INDIANA
8-1
32.4
2026-11-21
vs
MARYLAND
2-6
26.9
2026-11-28
at
UCLA
8-0
33.5
LAST YEAR
SC finished 2025 at 9-4. Made the playoffs (3 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 31-13 over MICHIGAN (MICHIGAN finished 69% that season). Toughest loss: 32-34 to ILLINOIS (2-point margin).
• [CLUB] Southern California has gone 19 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 20, 2025 through October 31, 2026), going 13-6 over that stretch, a school-record 19 straight in the 23 seasons on record.
• [CLUB] Southern California is 35-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (35 such games).
• [CLUB] Southern California has gone 14 straight games throwing for 200+ yards (November 7, 2025 through October 31, 2026), going 10-4 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (26 games).
• [CLUB] Southern California has gone 5 straight games being held under 150 rushing yards (September 26, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 3-2 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2019 (6 games).
• [CLUB] Southern California has gone 5 straight games holding the opponent under 5.0 yards per carry (September 26, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 3-2 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2026 (6 games).
• [PLAYER] Jayden Maiava has gone 14 straight games throwing for 200+ yards, the longest such streak of his career.
• [PLAYER] Jayden Maiava has gone 14 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• [PLAYER] Braylan Shelby has gone 2 straight games recording a sack, the longest such streak of his career.
• [PLAYER] Desman Stephens Ii has gone 10 straight games without making 10 or more tackles. The last time he made 10 tackles was November 22, 2025 against Oregon (L, 27-42) — 17 tackles.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
SC HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• SC holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.770)
• SC rushes for 100+ yards (.776), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• SC commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.819), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• SC averages 8.0+ yards per attempt (.834), and has won 6 straight when doing so
• SC's offense has exceeded 200 pass yds in 14 straight games (11/07/2025-10/31/2026), going 10-4 over that stretch.
• SC's defense has averaged 0.6 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 288-game average is 1.8 takeaways per game. (-67%)
• SC's offense has averaged 75.7 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 288-game average is 165.4 rush yards per game. (-54%)
• SC's offense has failed to reach 5.0 YPC in 5 straight games (09/26/2026-10/31/2026), going 3-2 over that stretch.
• SC's defense has limited opponents to under 5.0 YPC in 5 straight games (09/26/2026-10/31/2026), going 3-2 over that stretch.
• SC holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards while forcing 2+ takeaways
• SC's offense has averaged 0.9 giveaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 288-game average is 1.5 giveaways per game. (-43%)
• SC's offense has averaged 2.8 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 288-game average is 4.7 YPC. (-41%)
• SC averages 6.4+ yards per play (SC's own median) (.861)
• SC holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards
• SC's offense has averaged 22.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 289-game average is 34.1 points scored per game. (-33%)
SC's defense has averaged 0.6 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 288-game average is 1.8 takeaways per game. (-67%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA sits among 138 FBS teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 89.1, Defense Grade 76.7.
PASS YARDS / GAME: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA VS THE FBS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ranks #10 of 138 FBS teams in passing yards per game (294.4) -- a strength worth a look.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- 17.4 in 2022 to 24.8 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
3.00 points per offensive possession (86 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 50.8% success rate, 16.9% explosive play rate (59 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
4
rush 100%
1 & medium
9
rush 100%
1 & long
241
rush 51%, pass 47%, sack 1%
2 & short
28
rush 75%, pass 25%
2 & medium
65
pass 58%, rush 40%, sack 2%
2 & long
87
pass 67%, rush 29%, sack 5%
3 & short
31
rush 68%, pass 32%
3 & medium
32
pass 72%, rush 19%, sack 9%
3 & long
35
pass 83%, rush 14%, sack 3%
4 & short
11
rush 73%, pass 27%
4 & medium
6
pass 83%, rush 17%
4 & long
2
pass 100%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
4 of 8 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: +7.8 final vs. +8.6 before garbage time — this team gets padded on (-0.9 pts/game)
Biggest swing: 9 points, vs. Fresno St. on 2026-09-04 (+39 final, +30 real)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
Red Zone Splits
How a player performed once his team's offense (or the opponent's, for a defender) reached inside the 20-yard line.
Inputs: Every play on file within 20 yards of the goal line (`distance_to_goal <= 20`) this player was involved in. COVERAGE CAVEAT: true field position is only recorded for about a third of plays leaguewide, concentrated in FBS/FCS games -- a player whose games come from a source without it will show thin or missing red-zone splits even if he played plenty of red-zone snaps. This is a gap in the underlying play-by-play data, not a sign he didn't play there.
Final 2 Minutes of a Half
How a player performed in the last two minutes of either half -- the clock-management, high-pressure stretch at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Inputs: Every play on file in the 2nd or 4th quarter with 2:00 or less on the clock this player was involved in. Same field-position/clock coverage caveat as Red Zone Splits above -- roughly a third of plays leaguewide carry a usable clock reading, concentrated in FBS/FCS games.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
11/04/2026 03:58
