In short: Roanoke Division III college football, 2026 season: 5-2 (ODAC). Last game: W 45-3 vs Averett on October 24, 2026. Next: vs Bridgewater (VA), October 31, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The number to watch when Roanoke meets Bridgewater (VA) is Roanoke's scoring defense. Roanoke allowed 7.0 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #3 in D-III in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Maroons have allowed 24.0 points per game, a 243% rise, #117 in D-III in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Roanoke's last 4 opponents have averaged 24.8 points per game, a #128 offense in D-III on the season, against 13.5 points per game, #209 for the first 3. Meanwhile, Bridgewater (VA)'s offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Eagles have averaged 11.8 points per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #214 in D-III during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in D-III (25.3 points per game on the season, which would rank #130). Against those norms, Bridgewater (VA) scored 54% less than those defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Roanoke is 3-0 this season when it holds opponents under 9, and 2-2 when it doesn't.
The battle on the ground could decide Roanoke's next game, against Bridgewater (VA), and the recent returns favor Bridgewater (VA). Roanoke allowed 1.6 yards per carry (175 yards on 112 rushes) over its first 4 games (4-0), #7 in D-III through those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), the Maroons have allowed 3.9 yards per carry (480 yards on 122 rushes), a 152% rise, #126 in D-III through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Roanoke's last 3 opponents have averaged 4.8 yards per carry, a #52 rushing attack in D-III on the season, against 2.7 yards per carry, #201 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.8 yards per carry), Roanoke held those rushing attacks 17% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Meanwhile, Bridgewater (VA)'s ground game has struggled in recent weeks. The Eagles have averaged 2.9 yards per carry (292 yards on 102 rushes) over their last 3 games (2-1), #183 in D-III over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker run defenses in D-III (4.8 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #197). Against those norms, Bridgewater (VA) ran for 40% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Roanoke the edge: Roanoke's front grades -0.5 against Bridgewater (VA)'s offensive line at -5.7 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
NOTES
Roanoke's third-down defense looks worse on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Roanoke allowed 39.6% of third downs (38-for-96) on the season, #155 in D-III, but that number is dragged down by a 11-for-17 against Hampden-Sydney on 10/10. In all other games, Roanoke is at 34.2% of third downs (27-for-79), a figure that would rank #100 in D-III. It came against one of D-III's better third-down offenses (Hampden-Sydney: 46%, #41 of 244). Bridgewater (VA)'s third-down offense (25%, #207 of 244) gives Roanoke a real chance to look like the season line again.
The biggest worry in Roanoke's season has been the direction of its defense. The Maroons allowed 3.6 yards per play (584 yards on 164 snaps) over their first 3 games (3-0), #13 in D-III within that period. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), Roanoke has allowed 4.8 yards per play (1,375 yards on 287 snaps), a 35% rise, #71 in D-III across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Roanoke's last 4 opponents have averaged 5.4 yards per play, a #129 offense in D-III on the season, against 4.9 yards per play, #177 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.4 yards per play), Roanoke held those offenses 11% below their usual yards per snap. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, the Maroons rank #39 in D-III in yards per play allowed. Bridgewater (VA)'s offense, #229 of 245 (3.7 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Roanoke needs. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Roanoke the edge: Roanoke's front grades -0.5 against Bridgewater (VA)'s offensive line at -5.7 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
Roanoke averaged 10.0 yards per pass attempt (919 yards on 92 attempts) over its first 4 games (4-0), #18 in D-III during those games. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), the Maroons have averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt (615 yards on 84 attempts), a 27% drop, #111 in D-III during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Roanoke's last 3 opponents have averaged 7.3 yards per attempt, a #151 pass defense in D-III on the season, against 8.9 yards per attempt, #221 for the first 4. On the season, Roanoke ranks #36 in D-III in passing. Bridgewater (VA)'s pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #76 in D-III (6.4 yards per attempt). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Roanoke the edge: Roanoke's offensive line grades +0.4 against Bridgewater (VA)'s front at -1.5 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
Roanoke's third-down offense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Maroons converted 56.7% of third downs (17-for-30) over their first 3 games (3-0), #12 in D-III during that stretch. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), Roanoke has converted 42.1% of third downs (16-for-38), a 26% drop, #81 in D-III over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 42.5% on the season. On the season, the Maroons rank #23 in D-III in third-down offense. Bridgewater (VA)'s third-down defense, #188 of 244 (43.8%), could be the get-right matchup Roanoke needs.
Something changed for Roanoke's ground game after the first 4 games of the season. Roanoke averaged 4.9 yards per carry (701 yards on 142 rushes) over its first 4 games (4-0), #50 in D-III over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), the Maroons have averaged 3.7 yards per carry (346 yards on 93 rushes), a 25% drop, #122 in D-III over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Roanoke's last 3 opponents have averaged 4.3 yards per carry, a #159 run defense in D-III on the season, against 5.7 yards per carry, #232 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.3 yards per carry), Roanoke ran for 13% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, Roanoke ranks #69 in D-III in rushing. Bridgewater (VA)'s run defense, #189 of 244 (4.7 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Roanoke needs. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Roanoke the edge: Roanoke's offensive line grades +0.4 against Bridgewater (VA)'s front at -1.5 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Roanoke has played one of the softest schedules in the pool so far (#211 of 246), and what is left is a tougher-than-average slate (#54 of 244): the hard part is still ahead.
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#211 of 246
avg opponent rating -33.3 over 7 games · 0 vs top-25 D-III
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#54 of 244
avg opponent rating -6.8 over 3 games · 0 vs top-25
@Virginia… W 37-7Greensbo… W 28-14@Gallaudet W 52-0@Guilford W 52-24Hampden-… L 33-39@Shenando… L 24-30Averett W 45-3Bridgewa…@Randolph…Wash. & …
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 24 game; last updated Oct 25; roster and numbers checked Sep 18.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 63.1/100 (+16 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 18.9/100 (-60 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 48.4/100 (+4 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 59.4/100 (-13 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-31
vs
BRIDGEWATER (VA)
2-5
8.7
2026-11-07
at
RANDOLPH-MACON
5-2
35.9
2026-11-14
vs
WASH. & LEE
4-3
22.3
LAST YEAR
ROA finished 2025 at 5-4. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 24-14 over BRIDGEWATER (VA) (BRIDGEWATER (VA) finished 33% that season). Toughest loss: 20-33 to SHENANDOAH (13-point margin).
• [PLAYER] Linwood Johnson has gone 8 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• [PLAYER] Linwood Johnson has 1126 passing yards over his last 5 games (225.2 a game, September 26, 2026 through October 24, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Grey Deal has 4 touchdown catches over his last 4 games (1.0 a game, September 12, 2026 through October 17, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Ethan Mapstone has 25 tackles over his last 3 games (8.3 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 24, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Brayden Andrews has 32 tackles over his last 4 games (8.0 a game, October 3, 2026 through October 24, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Charlie Davis has 41 tackles over his last 4 games (10.2 a game, October 18, 2025 through September 3, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch since the 46 he had from September 13, 2025 through October 11, 2025.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
ROA HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• ROA holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.833)
• ROA holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.999), and has won 8 straight when doing so
ROA's defense has averaged 1.3 takeaways per game over their last 10 games. Their 16-game average is 1.9 takeaways per game. (-33%)
ROA's defense has averaged 160.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 16-game average is 124.6 rush yards per game. (+28%)
ROA's defense has averaged 3.8 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 16-game average is 3.1 YPC. (+20%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where ROANOKE sits among 246 D3 teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 41.0, Defense Grade 53.9.
SCORING MARGIN / GAME: ROANOKE VS THE D3
ROANOKE ranks #32 of 246 D3 teams in scoring margin (22.0) -- a strength worth a look.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
2.98 points per offensive possession (84 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 33.3% success rate, 5.6% explosive play rate (18 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
6
rush 83%, pass 17%
1 & medium
9
rush 67%, pass 33%
1 & long
182
rush 57%, pass 41%, sack 2%
2 & short
22
rush 77%, pass 23%
2 & medium
46
rush 59%, pass 41%
2 & long
69
pass 55%, rush 43%, sack 1%
3 & short
21
rush 81%, pass 19%
3 & medium
23
rush 48%, pass 48%, sack 4%
3 & long
24
pass 79%, rush 12%, sack 8%
4 & short
5
rush 60%, pass 40%
4 & medium
4
pass 75%, rush 25%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
3 of 6 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: +23.3 final vs. +17.0 before garbage time — this team pads its margins (+6.3 pts/game)
Biggest swing: 17 points, vs. Gallaudet on 2026-09-26 (+52 final, +35 real)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
ADVANCED PLAYER STATS
LINWOOD JOHNSON (QB): EPA not on file yet, 39.5% success rate, 44 dropbacks
POLO HILL (RB): 139 rush yds, 18 carries, 61.1% success rate
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
Final 2 Minutes of a Half
How a player performed in the last two minutes of either half -- the clock-management, high-pressure stretch at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Inputs: Every play on file in the 2nd or 4th quarter with 2:00 or less on the clock this player was involved in. Same field-position/clock coverage caveat as Red Zone Splits above -- roughly a third of plays leaguewide carry a usable clock reading, concentrated in FBS/FCS games.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
10/30/2026 15:25
