In short: LSU FBS college football, 2026 season: 6-2 (SEC). Last game: W 38-17 vs Auburn on October 24, 2026. Next: vs Alabama, November 7, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The battle on the ground could decide LSU's next game, against Alabama, and the recent returns favor Alabama. LSU allowed 1.2 yards per carry (99 yards on 80 rushes) over its first 3 games (2-1), #1 in FBS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Tigers have allowed 3.4 yards per carry (584 yards on 171 rushes), a 176% rise, #28 in FBS in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 4.4 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.4 yards per carry), LSU held those rushing attacks 22% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Meanwhile, Alabama's ground game has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Crimson Tide have averaged 4.0 yards per carry (586 yards on 145 rushes) over their last 5 games (3-2), #80 in FBS during that time. Those games came against some of the better run defenses in FBS (3.5 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #31). Against those norms, Alabama ran for 15% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Alabama offers LSU a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give LSU the edge: LSU's front grades +5.7 against Alabama's offensive line at +3.0 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
The number to watch when LSU meets Alabama is LSU's takeaways. LSU forced 1.8 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #18 in FBS through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (3-1), the Tigers have forced 0.5 takeaways per game, a 71% drop, #116 in FBS through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.3 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.2 per game), LSU forced 59% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Meanwhile, Alabama's ball security has struggled in recent weeks. The Crimson Tide have committed 2.0 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #121 in FBS over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better defenses in FBS (1.4 per game on the season, which would rank #45). Against those norms, Alabama turned it over 39% more than those defenses usually force. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
NOTES
LSU's third-down defense looks worse on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. LSU allowed 32.4% of third downs (36-for-111) on the season, #20 in FBS, but that number is dragged down by a 9-for-15 against CFB Pirate FBS #8 Ole Miss on 9/19. In all other games, LSU is at 28.1% of third downs (27-for-96), a figure that would rank #5 in FBS. Ole Miss' third-down offense sits near the middle of the pack (44.9%, #38 of 138). Against Alabama, LSU draws a middle-of-the-pack third-down offense (45.2%, #36), so expect something closer to the 28.1% version.
The biggest shift in LSU's season has come in its red-zone defense. The Tigers allowed touchdowns on 62.5% of opponents' red-zone trips (5 of 8) over their first 4 games (3-1), #96 in FBS within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), LSU has allowed touchdowns on 41.7% of opponents' red-zone trips (5 of 12), a 33% drop, #24 in FBS across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 58.1% on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (57%), LSU held those offenses 27% below their usual red-zone touchdown rate. On the season, the Tigers rank #42 in FBS in red-zone defense. That form gets a real test against Alabama, whose red-zone offense ranks #10 in FBS (73%).
LSU's ground game from the opening weeks has gone missing since. LSU averaged 5.1 yards per carry (1,188 yards on 233 rushes) over its first 5 games (4-1), #44 in FBS during those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Tigers have averaged 3.5 yards per carry (348 yards on 99 rushes), a 31% drop, #101 in FBS during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: LSU's last 3 opponents have averaged 3.6 yards per carry, a #41 run defense in FBS on the season, against 4.1 yards per carry, #75 for the first 5. On the season, LSU ranks #58 in FBS in rushing. It won't get any easier against Alabama, whose run defense ranks #19 in FBS (3.2 yards per carry). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Alabama the edge: LSU's offensive line grades +2.9 against Alabama's front at +5.2 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
The Tigers allowed 3.9 yards per play (907 yards on 234 snaps) over their first 4 games (3-1), #4 in FBS during that stretch. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 4 games since that hot start (3-1), LSU has allowed 4.7 yards per play (1,158 yards on 247 snaps), a 21% rise, #15 in FBS over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.6 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.7 yards per play), LSU held those offenses 17% below their usual yards per snap. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, the Tigers rank #4 in FBS in yards per play allowed. It won't get any easier against Alabama, whose offense ranks #21 in FBS (6.7 yards per play). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give LSU the edge: LSU's front grades +5.7 against Alabama's offensive line at +3.0 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
Something changed for LSU's offense after the first 5 games of the season. LSU averaged 43.6 points per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #7 in FBS over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Tigers have averaged 34.3 points per game, a 21% drop, #22 in FBS over that span. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 3 opponents have been softer, averaging 26.5 points per game, a #92 scoring defense in FBS on the season, against 22.4 points per game, #55 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (26.5 points per game), LSU scored 29% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, LSU ranks #7 in FBS in scoring. Alabama's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #46 in FBS (21.2 points per game).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
LSU has played a tougher-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#23 of 138), and what is left is one of the toughest slates (#2 of 138).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#23 of 138
avg opponent rating +45.5 over 8 games · 2 vs top-25 FBS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#2 of 138
avg opponent rating +57.8 over 4 games · 3 vs top-25
Clemson W 51-10Louisian… W 45-14@Ole Miss L 24-32Texas A&M W 35-6Mcneese W 63-14@Kentucky L 34-35Mississi… W 31-0@Auburn W 38-17AlabamaTexas@Tennessee@Arkansas
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 24 game; last updated Nov 1; roster and numbers checked Sep 17.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 97.7/100 (+122 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 78.0/100 (+44 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 94.8/100 (-74 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 94.6/100 (-89 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-11-07
vs
ALABAMA
6-2
38.2
2026-11-14
vs
TEXAS
6-2
30.8
2026-11-21
at
TENNESSEE
6-2
32.2
2026-11-28
at
ARKANSAS
3-5
19.6
LAST YEAR
LSU finished 2025 at 7-6. Made the playoffs (3 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 56-10 over SOUTHEASTERN LA. (SOUTHEASTERN LA. finished 69% that season). Toughest loss: 35-38 to HOUSTON (3-point margin).
• [CLUB] Lsu has won 2 straight, and a win would make it 3 in a row. The last time they won 3 or more in a row was 2024, a run of 7.
• [CLUB] Lsu is 57-1 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points. Lsu's last loss when holding the opponent under 10 points was September 16, 2006 against Auburn (L, 3-7).
• [CLUB] Lsu has gone 13 straight games holding the opponent under 7.0 yards per play (November 8, 2025 through October 24, 2026), going 8-5 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2018 (36 games).
• [CLUB] Lsu has gone 11 straight games holding the opponent under 5.0 yards per carry (November 22, 2025 through October 24, 2026), going 7-4 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2019 (13 games).
• [CLUB] Lsu has gone 9 straight games holding the opponent under 8.0 yards per attempt (December 27, 2025 through October 24, 2026), going 6-3 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2019 (16 games).
• [CLUB] Lsu has gone 6 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 19, 2026 through October 24, 2026), going 4-2 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2026 (8 games).
• [CLUB] Lsu has gone 5 straight games throwing for 200+ yards (September 26, 2026 through October 24, 2026), going 4-1 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (32 games).
• [PLAYER] Sam Leavitt has gone 8 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• [PLAYER] Sam Leavitt has 952 passing yards over his last 3 games (317.3 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 24, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Jackson Harris has 317 receiving yards over his last 3 games (105.7 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 24, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Jackson Harris has 5 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.7 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 24, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Whit Weeks has gone 12 straight games without recording two or more tackles for loss. The last time he had two tackles for loss was November 30, 2024 against Oklahoma (W, 37-17) — 2 tackles for loss.
• [PLAYER] Caden Durham has gone 7 straight games without running for a touchdown. The last time he ran for a touchdown was November 15, 2025 against Arkansas (W, 23-22) — 1 rushing TD.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
LSU HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• LSU rushes for 100+ yards (.840), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• LSU holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.791), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• LSU holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.859), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• LSU holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.831), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• LSU's defense has limited opponents to under 5.0 YPC in 11 straight games (11/22/2025-10/24/2026), going 7-4 over that stretch.
• LSU's defense has averaged 0.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 292-game average is 1.7 takeaways per game. (-80%)
• LSU's offense has exceeded 200 pass yds in 5 straight games (09/26/2026-10/24/2026), going 4-1 over that stretch.
• LSU averages 6.0+ yards per play while committing zero giveaways
• LSU holds its opponents under 4.9 yards per play (LSU's own median) (.897)
• LSU's offense has averaged 334.0 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 293-game average is 241.5 pass yards per game. (+38%)
• LSU averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards
• LSU's offense has averaged 116.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 293-game average is 177.3 rush yards per game. (-35%)
• LSU averages 6.1+ yards per play (LSU's own median) (.897)
• LSU holds its opponents under 6.6 yards per attempt (LSU's own median) (.870)
• LSU averages 4.5+ yards per carry (LSU's own median) (.898)
• LSU has won by 20+ in 2 straight games (10/17/26–10/24/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• LSU has scored 30+ in 5 straight games (9/26/26–10/24/26). It has not scored 30+ in 6 straight since 9/9/23–10/21/23 (2023).
• LSU has passed for 250+ in 5 straight games (9/26/26–10/24/26). It has not passed for 250+ in 6 straight since 1/1/24–10/12/24 (2024). It has reached 6 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 11 straight (2023) in that span.
LSU's defense has averaged 0.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 292-game average is 1.7 takeaways per game. (-80%)
LSU's defense has averaged 14.4 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 293-game average is 20.2 points allowed per game. (-29%)
LSU's defense has averaged 91.9 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 292-game average is 124.8 rush yards per game. (-26%)
LSU's defense has averaged 154.2 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 292-game average is 206.9 pass yards per game. (-25%)
LSU's defense has averaged 2.8 YPC over their last 7 games. Their 292-game average is 3.6 YPC. (-21%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where LSU sits among 138 FBS teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 87.5, Defense Grade 95.0.
YARDS / PLAY ALLOWED: LSU VS THE FBS
LSU ranks #4 of 138 FBS teams in yards per play allowed (4.29) -- a strength worth a look.
LSU: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- 19.6 in 2022 to 22.7 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
3.09 points per offensive possession (104 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 52.9% success rate, 17.6% explosive play rate (34 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
10
rush 90%, pass 10%
1 & medium
10
rush 80%, pass 20%
1 & long
272
pass 50%, rush 50%, sack 1%
2 & short
37
rush 78%, pass 19%, sack 3%
2 & medium
71
rush 61%, pass 37%, sack 3%
2 & long
100
pass 55%, rush 42%, sack 3%
3 & short
32
rush 78%, pass 19%, sack 3%
3 & medium
45
pass 64%, rush 31%, sack 4%
3 & long
39
pass 72%, rush 26%, sack 3%
4 & short
10
pass 70%, rush 30%
4 & medium
5
pass 60%, rush 40%
4 & long
1
pass 100%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
6 of 8 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: +24.1 final vs. +17.2 before garbage time — this team pads its margins (+6.9 pts/game)
Biggest swing: 14 points, vs. Louisiana Tech on 2026-09-12 (+31 final, +17 real)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
ADVANCED PLAYER STATS
SAM LEAVITT (QB): +0.18 EPA/dropback, 48.0% success rate, 100 dropbacks
LANDEN CLARK (QB): +0.64 EPA/dropback, 60.0% success rate, 10 dropbacks
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
Red Zone Splits
How a player performed once his team's offense (or the opponent's, for a defender) reached inside the 20-yard line.
Inputs: Every play on file within 20 yards of the goal line (`distance_to_goal <= 20`) this player was involved in. COVERAGE CAVEAT: true field position is only recorded for about a third of plays leaguewide, concentrated in FBS/FCS games -- a player whose games come from a source without it will show thin or missing red-zone splits even if he played plenty of red-zone snaps. This is a gap in the underlying play-by-play data, not a sign he didn't play there.
Final 2 Minutes of a Half
How a player performed in the last two minutes of either half -- the clock-management, high-pressure stretch at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Inputs: Every play on file in the 2nd or 4th quarter with 2:00 or less on the clock this player was involved in. Same field-position/clock coverage caveat as Red Zone Splits above -- roughly a third of plays leaguewide carry a usable clock reading, concentrated in FBS/FCS games.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
11/01/2026 09:25
