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In short: Harvard FCS college football, 2026 season: 6-0 (Ivy League). Last game: W 35-7 vs Princeton on October 24, 2026. Next: at Dartmouth, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.

AT A GLANCE
HEAD-TO-HEAD GAME LOG

ScorePirate Individual Team Report
HARVARD
HARVARD 6-0
2026 SEASON
HARVARD
AT A GLANCE — AS OF 10/29/2026
RECORD6-0 this season
LAST GAMEW 35-7 vs PRINCETON
NEXT GAMEDARTMOUTH (10/30/2026)
UNIT GRADESPass Off 74.9 · Rush Off 50.1 · Pass Def 85.0 · Rush Def 60.2
LEAGUEIVY LEAGUE
NUMBERS TO NOTE
6-0
2026 record
+15.7
avg scoring margin, pts/gm
UNIT INDEX — GRADE (YDS VS AVG)
TEAMPASS ORUSH OPASS DRUSH D
HARVARD74.9 (+40)50.1 (-5)85.0 (-43)60.2 (-14)
STORYLINES

Next: at Dartmouth, Fri 30 Oct. Full matchup report.

The number to watch when Harvard meets Dartmouth is Harvard's scoring. Harvard averaged 21.7 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #75 in FCS in that timeframe. In the 3 games since that slow start (3-0), the Crimson have averaged 35.3 points per game, a 63% rise, #19 in FCS in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Harvard's last 3 opponents have averaged 24.1 points per game, a #44 scoring defense in FCS on the season, against 21.7 points per game, #27 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (24.1 points per game), Harvard scored 46% more than those defenses usually allow. Conversely, Dartmouth's defense has been one of FCS's better units in recent weeks. The Big Green have allowed 22.3 points per game over their last 3 games (2-1), #43 in FCS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in FCS (24.3 points per game on the season, which would rank #68). Against those norms, Dartmouth held those offenses 8% below what they usually score. Something has to give when Harvard's surging offense meets one of FCS's better units in Dartmouth's. Harvard is 4-0 this season when it scores 22 or more, and 2-0 when it doesn't.

The battle on the ground could decide Harvard's next game, against Dartmouth, and the recent returns favor Dartmouth. Harvard allowed 2.9 yards per carry (280 yards on 97 rushes) over its first 3 games (3-0), #7 in FCS through those games. In the 3 games since that hot start (3-0), the Crimson have allowed 4.5 yards per carry (472 yards on 104 rushes), a 57% rise, #80 in FCS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Harvard's last 3 opponents have averaged 4.4 yards per carry, a #53 rushing attack in FCS on the season, against 3.2 yards per carry, #111 for the first 3. Meanwhile, Dartmouth's ground game has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Big Green have averaged 4.3 yards per carry (468 yards on 110 rushes) over their last 3 games (2-1), #60 in FCS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of run defenses in FCS (4.1 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #49). Dartmouth offers Harvard a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: Harvard's front and Dartmouth's offensive line grade out about even.

NOTES

Harvard's red-zone defense looks worse on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Harvard allowed touchdowns on 46.2% of opponents' red-zone trips (6 of 13) on the season, #17 in FCS, but that number is dragged down by a 2-for-2 against Cornell on 10/10. In all other games, Harvard is at 36.4% of opponents' red-zone trips (4 of 11), a figure that would rank #4 in FCS. It came against one of FCS's better red-zone offenses (Cornell: 69.2%, #12 of 128). Against Dartmouth, Harvard draws one of the better red-zone offenses (70.6%, #11), so expect something closer to the 36.4% version.

The biggest shift in Harvard's season has come in its passing game. The Crimson averaged 6.3 yards per pass attempt (654 yards on 103 attempts) over their first 3 games (3-0), #81 in FCS within that period. In the 3 games since that slow start (3-0), Harvard has averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt (835 yards on 90 attempts), a 46% rise, #8 in FCS across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Harvard's last 3 opponents have averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, a #89 pass defense in FCS on the season, against 6.4 yards per attempt, #25 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.7 yards per attempt), Harvard threw for 21% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. On the season, the Crimson rank #27 in FCS in passing. That form gets a real test against Dartmouth, whose pass defense ranks #32 in FCS (6.6 yards per attempt). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Harvard the edge: Harvard's offensive line grades +0.5 against Dartmouth's front at -3.0 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).

Harvard averaged 4.8 yards per play (1,028 yards on 213 snaps) over its first 3 games (3-0), #90 in FCS during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 3 games since that slow start (3-0), the Crimson have averaged 6.3 yards per play (1,232 yards on 195 snaps), a 31% rise, #24 in FCS during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.4 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.5 yards per play), Harvard gained 14% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. On the season, Harvard ranks #58 in FCS in yards per play. Dartmouth's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #45 in FCS (5.4 yards per play). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Harvard the edge: Harvard's offensive line grades +0.5 against Dartmouth's front at -3.0 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).

Harvard's third-down offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Crimson converted 41% of third downs (16-for-39) over their first 3 games (3-0), #43 in FCS during that stretch. In the 3 games since that slow start (3-0), Harvard has converted 51.5% of third downs (17-for-33), a 26% rise, #9 in FCS over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 41.9% on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (43%), Harvard converted third downs 20% more often than those defenses usually allow. On the season, the Crimson rank #17 in FCS in third-down offense. The trend lines up well against Dartmouth, whose third-down defense ranks just #119 of 129 (48.1%).

Something changed for Harvard's defense after its first 3 games. Harvard allowed 4.0 yards per play (775 yards on 196 snaps) over its first 3 games (3-0), #3 in FCS over that timeframe. In the 3 games since that hot start (3-0), the Crimson have allowed 4.8 yards per play (928 yards on 193 snaps), a 22% rise, #25 in FCS over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Harvard's last 3 opponents have averaged 5.5 yards per play, a #59 offense in FCS on the season, against 4.9 yards per play, #99 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.5 yards per play), Harvard held those offenses 12% below their usual yards per snap. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Harvard ranks #5 in FCS in yards per play allowed. Dartmouth's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #64 in FCS (5.4 yards per play). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: Harvard's front and Dartmouth's offensive line grade out about even.

SCHEDULE STRENGTH

Harvard has played a middle-of-the-road schedule in the pool so far (#66 of 130), and what is left is a tougher-than-average slate (#50 of 129).

Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#66 of 130
avg opponent rating +13.3 over 7 games · 0 vs top-25 FCS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#50 of 129
avg opponent rating +14.1 over 3 games · 1 vs top-25
Toughest game played
Dartmouth
#40 in FCS · Oct 30
Toughest game ahead
Yale
#23 in FCS · Nov 21
@New Hamp…
W 31-7
@Brown
W 14-10
Colgate
W 20-17
@Cornell
W 41-29
Holy Cro…
W 30-7
Princeton
W 35-7
@DartmouthColumbia@PennYale
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
HAR — STAT LEADERS
FULL ROSTER ↓
OFFENSE
PASSING LEADER
1453PASS YDS
C-ATT136-188
COMP%72.3%
YPA7.7
TD12
INT4
QBR154.1
RUSHING LEADER
233RUSH YDS
CAR60
YPC3.9
RUSH TD2
REC4
REC YDS17
YPR4.2
REC TD0
RUSHING LEADER
100RUSH YDS
CAR19
YPC5.3
RUSH TD0
REC4
REC YDS8
YPR2.0
REC TD0
RECEIVING LEADER
420REC YDS
REC47
YPR8.9
REC TD1
RECEIVING LEADER
254REC YDS
REC17
YPR14.9
REC TD5
DEFENSE
TACKLES LEADER
50TCKL
TFL1
SACKS1
INT0
PD0
FF0
TACKLES LEADER
39TCKL
TFL3
SACKS2
INT0
PD0
FF1
TACKLES LEADER
33TCKL
TFL0
SACKS0
INT1
PD0
FF0
TFL LEADER
3TFL
TCKL27
SACKS0
INT0
PD0
FF0
TFL LEADER
3TFL
TCKL21
SACKS2
INT0
PD0
FF0
SACKS LEADER
2SACKS
TCKL11
TFL2
INT0
PD0
FF0
SACKS LEADER
2SACKS
TCKL21
TFL3
INT0
PD0
FF0
INTERCEPTIONS LEADER
6INT
TCKL23
TFL1
SACKS1
PD0
FF1
HAR — WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

From the games on file through Oct 24.

Printable team sheet
HAR — PLAYER SEASON STATS — 2026

Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 24 game; last updated Oct 25; roster and numbers checked Sep 17.

Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PASSING
NOPLAYERGPC/ATTCOMP %YDSYPATDINTQBR
14CHARLIE SMITH6136/18872.3%1,4537.7124154.1
3DANTE TORRES43/475.0%184.500112.8
15KISE FLANNERY61/1100.0%1818.010581.2
TEAM TOTALS6140/19372.5%1,4897.7134155.4
RUSHING
NOPLAYERGPCARYDSYPCTD
0XAVIAH BASCON6602333.92
23COLE ALLEN2191005.30
NATHAN BAILEY614987.01
27NAJEE CALHOUN328943.40
20JORDAN HARRIS412695.80
18DJ GORDON19677.40
15KISE FLANNERY618643.64
28MADDUX REID517583.40
3DANTE TORRES44143.50
14CHARLIE SMITH625-8-0.30
TEAM TOTALS62067893.87
RECEIVING
NOPLAYERGPRECYDSYPRTD
NATHAN BAILEY6474208.91
85TEIGAN PELLETIER51725414.95
83HENRY SHOEMAKER51118416.73
16TAFARI MOE5915817.62
5SEAMUS GILMARTIN61212810.71
22RYAN TATTERSALL5111009.11
42LOGAN REASKA588410.50
28MADDUX REID57659.30
20JORDAN HARRIS45357.00
0XAVIAH BASCON64174.20
18DJ GORDON111212.00
45BEN ALVAREZ111111.00
23COLE ALLEN2482.00
27NAJEE CALHOUN3166.00
80CAMREN WARE1144.00
84SANDERS DANIELL2133.00
TEAM TOTALS61401,48910.613
DEFENSE
NOPLAYERGPTCKLTFLSACKSINTINT YDSPDFF
34DORSEY BENEFIELD650110000
35SEAN LINE639320001
3JACK DONAHOE633001000
1ETHAN CARSON631110000
98JAKE DARLING627300000
15XADEN BENSON623116001
7DAMIEN HENDERSON622001000
8JOSH FEDD621320000
88STEPHEN SCOURTIS521320000
0AUSTIN-JAKE GUILLORY620101000
2DJ VINCENT-THOMAS414001000
9MEKHI HICKS513000000
97ACHILLES ANDERSON512000000
93MIKHAL JOHNSON511220000
96BRANDON UKONU410110000
59JACINTO LOPEZ510000000
30OWEN JOHNSON610000000
26AKIEL LOMOTEY69000000
11LEVY KINLOCK58110000
36OMARI GAYLES24000000
12TEDDY CHUNG34000000
27AJ LOPEZ33101000
24CALEB PHILLIPS23000000
40CAM WALKER23000000
28AUSTIN OLIVAS22000000
39JORDAN GONZALEZ12000000
27NAJEE CALHOUN32000001
41BRYAN HARRISON11000000
17CHASE MASON11000000
GIOVANNI JOSEPH11000000
4JOHN CHUNG11000000
23KENNARD MCGUIRE JR11000000
28MADDUX REID51000000
10MIKEY YOUNG11000000
90NICK MCCULLOUGH11000000
22RYAN TATTERSALL51000000
18SALIM HILL21000000
16TAFARI MOE51000000
0XAVIAH BASCON61000000
TEAM TOTALS6419211311003
PROGRAM SNAPSHOT: HAR

PROGRAM RECORD

SEASONRECORDPFPAPPG
20226-426923626.9
20238-231820231.8
20248-232621632.6
20259-240123336.5
20266-01717728.5
2022-2637-1031.6
HAR — 2026 SEASON SCHEDULE
DATEOPPONENTSITERESULTSCOREWIN%
09/19NEW HAMPSHIREatW31-7
09/25BROWNatW14-10
10/03COLGATEvsW20-17
10/10CORNELLatW41-29
10/17HOLY CROSSvsW30-7
10/24PRINCETONvsW35-7
10/30DARTMOUTHatPROJ26-2258.1%
11/07COLUMBIAvsPROJ43-698.4%
11/14PENNatPROJ26-2258.4%
11/21YALEvsPROJ28-2458.7%
SEASON TO DATE6-04 REMAINING

SEASON OUTLOOK

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)

RECORD TO DATEMOST LIKELY FINALPROJECTED RECORD
Overall6-0 so far9-1 (43%)8.9-1.1
League0-0 so far0-0 (100%)0.0-0.0
HAR — 2026 OVERALL AVERAGES
SPLITGPPPGOPP PPGYPGOPP YPGPLAYS/GOPP PLAYS/G
OVERALL628.512.8376.7283.868.064.8
HOME328.310.3440.0285.369.361.0
ROAD328.715.3313.3282.366.768.7

PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.

HAR — 2026 TEAM GAME LOG
DATEOPPONENTRESULTPASS YDSRUSH YDSTOTAL YDSPASS ALWRUSH ALWTOTAL ALWSACKS ALWSACKSDEF INTTO FORCEDTO MAR
9/19@ New HampshireW 31-774188262186492351723+2
9/25@ BrownW 14-1020593298121932143234+2
10/3vs. ColgateW 20-173759346818813832621110
10/10@ CornellW 41-292751053801582403980122+1
10/17vs. Holy CrossW 30-72971644611711403112122+1
10/24vs. PrincetonW 35-7263128391127922190112+2
AVERAGES248.2128.5376.7158.5125.3283.81.32.21.82.3+8 (season)

Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.

UNIT INDEX

Pass Offense: grade 74.9/100 (+40 yds/gm vs average)

Rush Offense: grade 50.1/100 (-5 yds/gm vs average)

Pass Defense: grade 85.0/100 (-43 yds/gm vs average)

Rush Defense: grade 60.2/100 (-14 yds/gm vs average)

Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.

OPPONENT TRACKER

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)

DATESITEOPPONENTTHEIR RECORDTHEIR PPG
2026-10-30atDARTMOUTH3-322.3
2026-11-07vsCOLUMBIA4-225.7
2026-11-14atPENN3-318.7
2026-11-21vsYALE3-329.3

LAST YEAR

HAR finished 2025 at 9-2. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 31-10 over DARTMOUTH (DARTMOUTH finished 70% that season). Toughest loss: 28-45 to YALE (17-point margin).

LAST SEASON: HAR — 2025 GAME LOG
DATEOPPONENTRESULTRECORDPFPATOT YDSYDS ALLOWED
2025-09-20STETSONW1-0597473205
2025-09-27BROWNW2-0417479155
2025-10-04HOLY CROSSW3-05924528333
2025-10-10CORNELLW4-03410413193
2025-10-18MERRIMACKW5-0317482307
2025-10-25PRINCETONW6-03514475340
2025-11-01DARTMOUTHW7-03110432261
2025-11-07COLUMBIAW8-03114381325
2025-11-15PENNW9-04543537425
2025-11-22YALEL9-12845412445
2025-11-29VILLANOVAL9-2752213512
TOTALS11 GMS9-29-240123348253501
TIDBITS (13 found)

• [CLUB] Harvard has won 6 straight, and a win would make it 7 in a row. The last time they won 7 or more in a row was 2025, a run of 9.

• [CLUB] Harvard has gone 31 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (October 28, 2023 through October 24, 2026), going 26-5 over that stretch, a school-record 31 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• [CLUB] Harvard has gone 12 straight games being held under 7.0 yards per play (October 25, 2025 through October 24, 2026), going 10-2 over that stretch, a school-record 12 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• [CLUB] Harvard has gone 7 straight games holding the opponent under 200 passing yards (November 29, 2025 through October 24, 2026), going 6-1 over that stretch, a school-record 7 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• [CLUB] Harvard has gone 4 straight games averaging 8.0+ yards per attempt (October 3, 2026 through October 24, 2026), going 4-0 over that stretch, matching the program record of 4 straight on record.

• [CLUB] Harvard is trying to start 7-0 for the 2nd time in 5 seasons on record (most recently 2025, when Harvard finished 9-2).

• [CLUB] Harvard is 19-0 all time when scoring 30-39 points in the games on file (19 such games).

• [CLUB] Harvard is 22-1 all time when rushing for 150+ yards. Harvard's last loss when rushing for 150+ yards was November 5, 2022 against Columbia (L, 20-21).

• [PLAYER] Charlie Smith has gone 6 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.

• [PLAYER] Charlie Smith has gone 5 straight games throwing for 200+ yards, the longest such streak of his career.

• [PLAYER] Xaviah Bascon has gone 8 straight games without rushing for 100+ yards. The last time he ran for 100+ yards was November 15, 2025 against Penn (W, 45-43) — 103 rushing yards.

• [PLAYER] Dj Gordon has gone 6 straight games without running for a touchdown. The last time he ran for a touchdown was October 25, 2025 against Princeton (W, 35-14) — 1 rushing TD.

• [PLAYER] Sean Line has gone 5 straight games without making 10 or more tackles. The last time he made 10 tackles was September 19, 2026 against New Hampshire (W, 31-7) — 10 tackles.

TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
HAR HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...

• HAR averages 6.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 27 straight when doing so

• HAR holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.872), and has won 20 straight when doing so

• HAR rushes for 100+ yards (.872), and has won 4 straight when doing so

• HAR holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.868), and has won 20 straight when doing so

• HAR's offense has failed to reach 5.0 YPC in 9 straight games (11/15/2025-10/24/2026), going 7-2 over that stretch.

• HAR's defense has limited opponents to under 200 pass yds in 7 straight games (11/29/2025-10/24/2026), going 6-1 over that stretch.

• HAR's defense has forced 1+ turnover in 7 straight games (11/29/2025-10/24/2026), going 6-1 over that stretch.

• HAR's defense has averaged 2.3 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 47-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (+58%)

• HAR's offense has exceeded 200 pass yds in 5 straight games (09/25/2026-10/24/2026), going 5-0 over that stretch.

• HAR averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards

• HAR holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards while forcing 2+ takeaways

• HAR's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 47-game average is 1.2 giveaways per game. (-44%)

• HAR holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards

• HAR's offense has exceeded 8.0 YPA in 4 straight games (10/03/2026-10/24/2026), going 4-0 over that stretch.

• HAR holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards

MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)

HAR -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(top 5 of 37 scored; vs 2194 cached team(s))

#SIDECONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRKSCORE
1OFFYPP 7+10-01.00043.5W100.883
2OFFTurnovers < 112-01.00037.5W120.819
3OFFYPP 6+27-01.00037.2W270.815
4OFFYPA 8+23-01.00037.2W230.812
5OFFYPC 5+12-01.00035.0W120.788
WIN %: TWO-CONDITION COMBINATIONS (15 found, min 4 Gms each)

(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)

--- HAR ---

CONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRK
HAR holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry30-5.85716.4W17
HAR holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards31-4.88616.9W16
HAR averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards22-0.99937.6W22
HAR holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play and under 100 rushing yards20-2.90914.9W13
HAR holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play while forcing 2+ takeaways17-2.89513.2W12
HAR holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards while forcing 2+ takeaways17-1.94412.6W16
HAR averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards17-0.99938.1W17
HAR holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards13-1.92911.5W12
HAR rushes for 150+ yards but stays under 8.0 yards per attempt11-1.91732.6W9
HAR averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards12-0.99935.0W12
HAR rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards7-3.70028.0W1
HAR averages 6.0+ yards per play while committing zero giveaways10-0.99938.1W10
HAR throws for 200+ yards despite 2+ giveaways5-4.55628.4W3
HAR throws for 200+ yards despite being held under 100 rushing yards3-4.42922.6W2
HAR rushes for 150+ yards but commits 2+ giveaways5-0.99935.4W5
WIN % -- TAB-SEPARATED
TeamConditionRecordWin%PPG
HARYPA < 8.0 & YPC < 5.030-5.85716.4
HARYPC < 5.0 & Rush Yds < 15031-4.88616.9
HARYPA 8.0+ & Pass Yds 200+22-0.99937.6
HARYPP < 6.0 & Rush Yds < 10020-2.90914.9
HARYPP < 6.0 & Turnovers 2+17-2.89513.2
HARRush Yds < 150 & Turnovers 2+17-1.94412.6
HARYPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+17-0.99938.1
HARRush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 20013-1.92911.5
HARRush Yds 150+ & YPA < 8.011-1.91732.6
HARYPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+12-0.99935.0
HARRush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 2007-3.70028.0
HARYPP 6.0+ & Turnovers < 110-0.99938.1
HARPass Yds 200+ & Turnovers 2+5-4.55628.4
HARPass Yds 200+ & Rush Yds < 1003-4.42922.6
HARRush Yds 150+ & Turnovers 2+5-0.99935.4
HAR — OFFENSE — 2022-26 (47 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+23-01.00037.2W23
YPA < 8.014-10.58326.2W2
Pass Yds 200+30-6.83333.1W5
Pass Yds < 2007-4.63626.7W1
Rush Yds 100+34-5.87233.7W4
Rush Yds < 1003-5.37521.5W2
Rush Yds 150+22-1.95735.4W18
Rush Yds < 15015-9.62527.9W4
YPC 5.0+12-01.00035.0W12
YPC < 5.025-10.71430.4W6
YPP 6.0+27-01.00037.2W27
YPP < 6.010-10.50024.0W2
YPP 7.0+10-01.00043.5W10
YPP < 7.027-10.73028.4W6
Turnovers 1+25-10.71429.6W5
Turnovers < 112-01.00037.5W12
Turnovers 2+8-7.53326.1W3
Turnovers > 22-3.40020.8L1
HAR — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2022-26 (47 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Scores <100-1.0007.0
Scores 10-192-4.33314.5
Scores 20-296-5.54525.5
Scores 30-3919-01.00033.9
Scores 40+10-01.00046.5
HAR — OFFENSE — 2026 (6 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+4-01.00031.5W4
YPA < 8.02-01.00022.5W2
Pass Yds 200+5-01.00028.0W5
Pass Yds < 2001-01.00031.0W1
Rush Yds 100+4-01.00034.2W4
Rush Yds < 1002-01.00017.0W2
Rush Yds 150+2-01.00030.5W2
Rush Yds < 1504-01.00027.5W4
YPC 5.0+--------
YPC < 5.06-01.00028.5W6
YPP 6.0+4-01.00031.5W4
YPP < 6.02-01.00022.5W2
YPP 7.0+--------
YPP < 7.06-01.00028.5W6
Turnovers 1+5-01.00027.2W5
Turnovers < 11-01.00035.0W1
Turnovers 2+1-01.00014.0W1
Turnovers > 2--------
HAR — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (6 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Scores <10------
Scores 10-191-01.00014.0
Scores 20-291-01.00020.0
Scores 30-393-01.00032.0
Scores 40+1-01.00041.0
HAR — DEFENSE — 2022-26 (47 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+4-5.44434.0L3
YPA < 8.033-5.86817.3W20
Pass Yds 200+21-6.77823.9L1
Pass Yds < 20016-4.80015.9W6
Rush Yds 100+17-8.68025.4W3
Rush Yds < 10020-2.90914.9W13
Rush Yds 150+5-6.45531.9W1
Rush Yds < 15032-4.88917.0W17
YPC 5.0+4-1.80032.6W1
YPC < 5.033-9.78619.1W5
YPP 6.0+3-5.37536.0L3
YPP < 6.034-5.87217.3W20
YPP 7.0+2-1.66736.0L1
YPP < 7.035-9.79519.5W6
Turnovers 1+29-5.85317.2W6
Turnovers < 18-5.61529.2L1
Turnovers 2+19-3.86416.5W5
Turnovers > 27-1.87512.0W7
HAR — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2022-26 (47 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Allows <1010-01.0006.4
Allows 10-1910-1.90913.4
Allows 20-2914-3.82424.5
Allows 30-392-4.33332.8
Allows 40+1-2.33346.7
HAR — DEFENSE — 2026 (6 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+--------
YPA < 8.06-01.00012.8W6
Pass Yds 200+--------
Pass Yds < 2006-01.00012.8W6
Rush Yds 100+3-01.00017.7W3
Rush Yds < 1003-01.0008.0W3
Rush Yds 150+1-01.00029.0W1
Rush Yds < 1505-01.0009.6W5
YPC 5.0+1-01.00029.0W1
YPC < 5.05-01.0009.6W5
YPP 6.0+--------
YPP < 6.06-01.00012.8W6
YPP 7.0+--------
YPP < 7.06-01.00012.8W6
Turnovers 1+6-01.00012.8W6
Turnovers < 1--------
Turnovers 2+5-01.00012.0W5
Turnovers > 22-01.0008.5W2
HAR — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (6 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Allows <103-01.0007.0
Allows 10-192-01.00013.5
Allows 20-291-01.00029.0
Allows 30-39------
Allows 40+------
ON THE BRINK

HARVARD

• HARVARD has passed for 250+ in 4 straight games (10/3/26–10/24/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• HARVARD has held the opponent under 14 in 2 straight games (10/17/26–10/24/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• HARVARD has forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (10/10/26–10/24/26). It has not forced 2+ turnovers in 4 straight since 9/20/25–10/10/25 (2025).

• HARVARD has won by 20+ in 2 straight games (10/17/26–10/24/26). It has not won by 20+ in 3 straight since 9/20/25–11/1/25 (2025).

TAB-SEPARATED (paste into a spreadsheet)
TeamSideSplitGamesRecordWin%PPGStrk
HAROFFENSEYPA 8.0+2323-01.00037.2W23
HAROFFENSEYPA < 8.02414-10.58326.2W2
HAROFFENSEPass Yds 200+3630-6.83333.1W5
HAROFFENSEPass Yds < 200117-4.63626.7W1
HAROFFENSERush Yds 100+3934-5.87233.7W4
HAROFFENSERush Yds < 10083-5.37521.5W2
HAROFFENSERush Yds 150+2322-1.95735.4W18
HAROFFENSERush Yds < 1502415-9.62527.9W4
HAROFFENSEYPC 5.0+1212-01.00035.0W12
HAROFFENSEYPC < 5.03525-10.71430.4W6
HAROFFENSEYPP 6.0+2727-01.00037.2W27
HAROFFENSEYPP < 6.02010-10.50024.0W2
HAROFFENSEYPP 7.0+1010-01.00043.5W10
HAROFFENSEYPP < 7.03727-10.73028.4W6
HAROFFENSETurnovers 1+3525-10.71429.6W5
HAROFFENSETurnovers < 11212-01.00037.5W12
HAROFFENSETurnovers 2+158-7.53326.1W3
HAROFFENSETurnovers > 252-3.40020.8L1
HAROFFENSEScores <1010-1.0007.0L1
HAROFFENSEScores 10-1962-4.33314.5W1
HAROFFENSEScores 20-29116-5.54525.5W1
HAROFFENSEScores 30-391919-01.00033.9W19
HAROFFENSEScores 40+1010-01.00046.5W10
HARDEFENSEYPA 8.0+94-5.44434.0L3
HARDEFENSEYPA < 8.03833-5.86817.3W20
HARDEFENSEPass Yds 200+2721-6.77823.9L1
HARDEFENSEPass Yds < 2002016-4.80015.9W6
HARDEFENSERush Yds 100+2517-8.68025.4W3
HARDEFENSERush Yds < 1002220-2.90914.9W13
HARDEFENSERush Yds 150+115-6.45531.9W1
HARDEFENSERush Yds < 1503632-4.88917.0W17
HARDEFENSEYPC 5.0+54-1.80032.6W1
HARDEFENSEYPC < 5.04233-9.78619.1W5
HARDEFENSEYPP 6.0+83-5.37536.0L3
HARDEFENSEYPP < 6.03934-5.87217.3W20
HARDEFENSEYPP 7.0+32-1.66736.0L1
HARDEFENSEYPP < 7.04435-9.79519.5W6
HARDEFENSETurnovers 1+3429-5.85317.2W6
HARDEFENSETurnovers < 1138-5.61529.2L1
HARDEFENSETurnovers 2+2219-3.86416.5W5
HARDEFENSETurnovers > 287-1.87512.0W7
HARDEFENSEAllows <101010-01.0006.4W10
HARDEFENSEAllows 10-191110-1.90913.4W8
HARDEFENSEAllows 20-291714-3.82424.5W6
HARDEFENSEAllows 30-3962-4.33332.8L1
HARDEFENSEAllows 40+31-2.33346.7L2
STREAKS: HAR (combined OFFENSE+DEFENSE)
SIDESPLITSTREAKDATESRECORD
OFFENSEYPP < 7.012 games10/25/2025 - 10/24/202610-2
OFFENSEYPC < 5.09 games11/15/2025 - 10/24/20267-2
DEFENSEPass Yds < 2007 games11/29/2025 - 10/24/20266-1
DEFENSETurnovers 1+7 games11/29/2025 - 10/24/20266-1
DEFENSEYPA < 8.06 games09/19/2026 - 10/24/20266-0
DEFENSEYPP < 6.06 games09/19/2026 - 10/24/20266-0
DEFENSEYPP < 7.06 games09/19/2026 - 10/24/20266-0
OFFENSEPass Yds 200+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/24/20265-0
OFFENSEYPA 8.0+4 games10/03/2026 - 10/24/20264-0
OFFENSEYPP 6.0+4 games10/03/2026 - 10/24/20264-0
STREAKS — ALL TEAMS
TeamSideSplitStreakDatesRecord
HAROFFENSEYPP < 7.012 games10/25/2025 - 10/24/202610-2
HAROFFENSEYPC < 5.09 games11/15/2025 - 10/24/20267-2
HARDEFENSEPass Yds < 2007 games11/29/2025 - 10/24/20266-1
HARDEFENSETurnovers 1+7 games11/29/2025 - 10/24/20266-1
HARDEFENSEYPA < 8.06 games09/19/2026 - 10/24/20266-0
HARDEFENSEYPP < 6.06 games09/19/2026 - 10/24/20266-0
HARDEFENSEYPP < 7.06 games09/19/2026 - 10/24/20266-0
HAROFFENSEPass Yds 200+5 games09/25/2026 - 10/24/20265-0
HAROFFENSEYPA 8.0+4 games10/03/2026 - 10/24/20264-0
HAROFFENSEYPP 6.0+4 games10/03/2026 - 10/24/20264-0
NOTABLE TRENDS (8 of 8 found, team |deviation| >= 20%, matchup |deviation| >= 20%)

HAR OFFENSE

HAR's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 47-game average is 1.2 giveaways per game. (-44%)

HAR's offense has averaged 116.6 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 47-game average is 158.2 rush yards per game. (-26%)

HAR's offense has averaged 3.4 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 47-game average is 4.4 YPC. (-22%)

HAR DEFENSE

HAR's defense has averaged 2.3 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 47-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (+58%)

HAR's defense has averaged 4.5 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 47-game average is 3.3 YPC. (+35%)

HAR's defense has averaged 157.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 47-game average is 118.0 rush yards per game. (+33%)

HAR's defense has averaged 14.0 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 47-game average is 20.5 points allowed per game. (-32%)

HAR's defense has averaged 152.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 47-game average is 212.3 pass yards per game. (-28%)

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

APPENDIX

Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.

Explanatory Notes

Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK

Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).

Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown

Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.

Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored

Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.

Full Data Exports

Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)

TeamSideTypeStatOpponentWindow/MeetingsValueBaselineGamesBaselineAvgDeviation
HARDEFENSEteamPass Yardslast 3152.047212.3-28.4%
HARDEFENSEteamPointslast 514.04720.5-31.7%
HARDEFENSEteamRush Yardslast 3157.347118.0+33.4%
HAROFFENSEteamRush Yardslast 5116.647158.2-26.3%
HARDEFENSEteamTurnoverslast 72.3471.4+58.0%
HAROFFENSEteamTurnoverslast 30.7471.2-44.0%
HARDEFENSEteamYPClast 34.5473.3+35.0%
HAROFFENSEteamYPClast 53.4474.4-22.2%
STATISTICAL STORIES

HARVARD: OFFENSE VS DEFENSE, 2026

Where HARVARD sits among 130 FCS teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 62.5, Defense Grade 72.6.

POINTS ALLOWED / GAME: HARVARD VS THE FCS

HARVARD ranks #1 of 130 FCS teams in points allowed per game (12.8) -- a strength worth a look.

HARVARD: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON

The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- 5.2 in 2022 to 9.2 in 2025.

These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.

HAR — ROSTER (110) 26-27
#NAMEPOSCLASS
QUARTERBACKS
3DANTE TORRES
PASS 3/4 · 75.0% · 18 YDS · 4.5 YPA · 0 TD · 0 INT · 4.5/G
RUSH 4 CAR · 14 YDS · 3.5 YPC · 0 TD · 3.5/G
QBSr.
14CHARLIE SMITH
PASS 136/188 · 72.3% · 1,453 YDS · 7.7 YPA · 12 TD · 4 INT · 242.2/G
RUSH 25 CAR · -8 YDS · -0.3 YPC · 0 TD · -1.3/G
QBSo.
15KISE FLANNERY
PASS 1/1 · 100.0% · 18 YDS · 18.0 YPA · 1 TD · 0 INT · 3.0/G
RUSH 18 CAR · 64 YDS · 3.6 YPC · 4 TD · 10.7/G
QBFr.
18DJ GORDON
RUSH 9 CAR · 67 YDS · 7.4 YPC · 0 TD · 67.0/G
REC 1 REC · 12 YDS · 12.0 YPC · 0 TD · 12.0/G
QBJr.
RUNNING BACKS
0XAVIAH BASCON
RUSH 60 CAR · 233 YDS · 3.9 YPC · 2 TD · 38.8/G
REC 4 REC · 17 YDS · 4.2 YPC · 0 TD · 2.8/G
DEF 1 TKL · 0.2 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
RBSr.
20JORDAN HARRIS
RUSH 12 CAR · 69 YDS · 5.8 YPC · 0 TD · 17.2/G
REC 5 REC · 35 YDS · 7.0 YPC · 0 TD · 8.8/G
RBSr.
23COLE ALLEN
RUSH 19 CAR · 100 YDS · 5.3 YPC · 0 TD · 50.0/G
REC 4 REC · 8 YDS · 2.0 YPC · 0 TD · 4.0/G
RBSo.
27NAJEE CALHOUN
RUSH 28 CAR · 94 YDS · 3.4 YPC · 0 TD · 31.3/G
REC 1 REC · 6 YDS · 6.0 YPC · 0 TD · 2.0/G
DEF 2 TKL · 0.7 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
RBFr.
28MADDUX REID
RUSH 17 CAR · 58 YDS · 3.4 YPC · 0 TD · 11.6/G
REC 7 REC · 65 YDS · 9.3 YPC · 0 TD · 13.0/G
DEF 1 TKL · 0.2 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
RBJr.
RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS
5SEAMUS GILMARTIN
REC 12 REC · 128 YDS · 10.7 YPC · 1 TD · 21.3/G
TESr.
16TAFARI MOE
REC 9 REC · 158 YDS · 17.6 YPC · 2 TD · 31.6/G
DEF 1 TKL · 0.2 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRSo.
17NATE BAILEY
RUSH 14 CAR · 98 YDS · 7.0 YPC · 1 TD · 16.3/G
REC 47 REC · 420 YDS · 8.9 YPC · 1 TD · 70.0/G
WRFr.
22RYAN TATTERSALL
REC 11 REC · 100 YDS · 9.1 YPC · 1 TD · 20.0/G
DEF 1 TKL · 0.2 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRSo.
42LOGAN REASKA
REC 8 REC · 84 YDS · 10.5 YPC · 0 TD · 16.8/G
TESr.
45BEN ALVAREZ
REC 1 REC · 11 YDS · 11.0 YPC · 0 TD · 11.0/G
TEJr.
80CAMREN WARE
REC 1 REC · 4 YDS · 4.0 YPC · 0 TD · 4.0/G
WRJr.
83HENRY SHOEMAKER
REC 11 REC · 184 YDS · 16.7 YPC · 3 TD · 36.8/G
WRFr.
84SANDERS DANIELL
REC 1 REC · 3 YDS · 3.0 YPC · 0 TD · 1.5/G
TEJr.
85TEIGAN PELLETIER
REC 17 REC · 254 YDS · 14.9 YPC · 5 TD · 50.8/G
TESo.
DEFENSIVE LINE
8JOSH FEDD
DEF 21 TKL · 3.5 TKL/G · 3 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DESr.
11LEVY KINLOCK
DEF 8 TKL · 1.6 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLSo.
40CAM WALKER
DEF 3 TKL · 1.5 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLJr.
59JACINTO LOPEZ
DEF 10 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLSr.
88STEPHEN SCOURTIS
DEF 21 TKL · 4.2 TKL/G · 3 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DESr.
90NICK MCCULLOUGH
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLSo.
93MIKHAL JOHNSON
DEF 11 TKL · 2.2 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLFr.
96BRANDON UKONU
DEF 10 TKL · 2.5 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLSo.
97ACHILLES ANDERSON
DEF 12 TKL · 2.4 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLSo.
98JAKE DARLING
DEF 27 TKL · 4.5 TKL/G · 3 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DTSr.
LINEBACKERS
1ETHAN CARSON
DEF 31 TKL · 5.2 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSo.
10MIKEY YOUNG
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSo.
24CALEB PHILLIPS
DEF 3 TKL · 1.5 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSr.
30OWEN JOHNSON
DEF 10 TKL · 1.7 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSr.
34DORSEY BENEFIELD
DEF 50 TKL · 8.3 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBJr.
35SEAN LINE
DEF 39 TKL · 6.5 TKL/G · 3 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSr.
39JORDAN GONZALEZ
DEF 2 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSo.
41BRYAN HARRISON
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBFr.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
0AUSTIN-JAKE GUILLORY
DEF 20 TKL · 3.3 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
DBSr.
2DJ VINCENT-THOMAS
DEF 14 TKL · 3.5 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
DBJr.
3JACK DONAHOE
DEF 33 TKL · 5.5 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
DBSr.
4JOHN CHUNG
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBSr.
7DAMIEN HENDERSON
DEF 22 TKL · 3.7 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
DBSr.
9MEKHI HICKS
DEF 13 TKL · 2.6 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBSo.
12TEDDY CHUNG
DEF 4 TKL · 1.3 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBSo.
15XADEN BENSON
DEF 23 TKL · 3.8 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 6 INT
DBJr.
17CHASE MASON
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBFr.
18SALIM HILL
DEF 1 TKL · 0.5 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBSo.
21GIO JOSEPH
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBFr.
23KENNARD MCGUIRE JR
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBJr.
26AKIEL LOMOTEY
DEF 9 TKL · 1.5 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBSo.
27AJ LOPEZ
DEF 3 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
DBSr.
28AUSTIN OLIVAS
DEF 2 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBFr.
36OMARI GAYLES
DEF 4 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBJr.
CHAMPIONSHIPS
SITUATIONAL PROFILE
Down & DistancePlaysPlay-Type Mix
1 & short4rush 100%
1 & medium8rush 88%, pass 12%
1 & long172rush 51%, pass 48%, sack 1%
2 & short17rush 71%, pass 29%
2 & medium47pass 51%, rush 49%
2 & long66rush 50%, pass 47%, sack 3%
3 & short22rush 64%, pass 36%
3 & medium25pass 84%, rush 16%
3 & long25pass 64%, rush 28%, sack 8%
4 & short9rush 56%, pass 44%
4 & medium1pass 100%
4 & long2pass 50%, rush 50%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE

See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.

ADVANCED PLAYER STATS

Situational standouts:

Red Zone / Final 2 Minutes standouts carry a real, disclosed field-position/clock coverage gap — see Advanced Metrics Explained below.

ADVANCED METRICS EXPLAINED (9)
EPA / Dropback

Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.

Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.

Passing Success Rate

The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.

Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.

Rushing Success Rate

The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.

Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.

Receiving Success Rate

The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).

Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.

3rd Down Splits

How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.

Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).

4th Down Splits

The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.

Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.

Red Zone Splits

How a player performed once his team's offense (or the opponent's, for a defender) reached inside the 20-yard line.

Inputs: Every play on file within 20 yards of the goal line (`distance_to_goal <= 20`) this player was involved in. COVERAGE CAVEAT: true field position is only recorded for about a third of plays leaguewide, concentrated in FBS/FCS games -- a player whose games come from a source without it will show thin or missing red-zone splits even if he played plenty of red-zone snaps. This is a gap in the underlying play-by-play data, not a sign he didn't play there.

Final 2 Minutes of a Half

How a player performed in the last two minutes of either half -- the clock-management, high-pressure stretch at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters.

Inputs: Every play on file in the 2nd or 4th quarter with 2:00 or less on the clock this player was involved in. Same field-position/clock coverage caveat as Red Zone Splits above -- roughly a third of plays leaguewide carry a usable clock reading, concentrated in FBS/FCS games.

What is "garbage time"?

A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.

Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.

Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED 10/29/2026 11:12