In short: Eastern Wash. FCS college football, 2026 season: 2-6 (Big Sky). Last game: L 20-56 vs Montana St. on October 17, 2026. Next: vs Montana, October 31, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The battle on the ground could decide Eastern Wash.'s next game, against Montana, and the recent returns favor Montana. Eastern Wash. allowed 4.8 yards per carry (684 yards on 143 rushes) over its first 4 games (1-3), #75 in FCS in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Eagles have allowed 8.0 yards per carry (1,139 yards on 143 rushes), a 67% rise, #129 in FCS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Eastern Wash.'s last 4 opponents have averaged 5.1 yards per carry, a #22 rushing attack in FCS on the season, against 4.2 yards per carry, #66 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.1 yards per carry), Eastern Wash. allowed 55% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Conversely, Montana's ground game has been one of FCS's better units in recent weeks. The Grizzlies have averaged 6.3 yards per carry (849 yards on 134 rushes) over their last 4 games (2-2), #11 in FCS during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker run defenses in FCS (5.1 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #108). Against those norms, Montana ran for 23% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Unless Eastern Wash.'s run defense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Montana. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Montana the edge: Eastern Wash.'s front grades -0.3 against Montana's offensive line at +2.8 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
The number to watch when Eastern Wash. meets Montana is Eastern Wash.'s red-zone offense. Eastern Wash. scored touchdowns on 75% of its red-zone trips (9 of 12) over its first 3 games (1-2), #13 in FCS through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Eagles have scored touchdowns on 52.4% of their red-zone trips (11 of 21), a 30% drop, #71 in FCS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Eastern Wash.'s last 5 opponents have averaged 54.9%, a #52 red-zone defense in FCS on the season, against 64.1%, #103 for the first 3. Meanwhile, Montana's red-zone defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Grizzlies have allowed touchdowns on 81% of opponents' red-zone trips (17 of 21) over their last 5 games (2-3), #126 in FCS over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better red-zone offenses in FCS (62.1% on the season, which would rank #31). Against those norms, Montana allowed red-zone touchdowns 30% more often than those offenses usually manage. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
NOTES
The biggest shift in Eastern Wash.'s season has come in its third-down defense. Eastern Wash. allowed 45.8% of third downs (22-for-48) over its first 4 games (1-3), #92 in FCS within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), the Eagles have allowed 34% of third downs (16-for-47), a 26% drop, #27 in FCS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Eastern Wash.'s last 4 opponents have averaged 41.6%, a #40 third-down offense in FCS on the season, against 37.8%, #73 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (41.6%), Eastern Wash. held those offenses 18% below their usual third-down rate. On the season, Eastern Wash. ranks #54 in FCS in third-down defense. Montana's third-down offense sits in the middle of the pack, #47 in FCS (40.9%).
No team in FCS has allowed more yards per snap over the last 5 games than Eastern Wash.. The Eagles allowed 6.3 yards per play (1,232 yards on 197 snaps) over their first 3 games (1-2), #79 in FCS during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), Eastern Wash. has allowed 8.0 yards per play (2,484 yards on 310 snaps), a 28% rise, #129 in FCS during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.1 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.3 yards per play), Eastern Wash. allowed 28% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. On the season, the Eagles rank #127 in FCS in yards per play allowed. It won't get any easier against Montana, whose offense ranks #5 in FCS (7.0 yards per play). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Montana the edge: Eastern Wash.'s front grades -0.3 against Montana's offensive line at +2.8 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
Eastern Wash.'s defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Eastern Wash. allowed 33.0 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #81 in FCS during that stretch. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Eagles have allowed 41.2 points per game, a 25% rise, #119 in FCS over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 30.5 points per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (29.8 points per game), Eastern Wash. allowed 38% more than those offenses usually score. On the season, Eastern Wash. ranks #114 in FCS in scoring defense. It won't get any easier against Montana, whose offense ranks #8 in FCS (37.8 points per game). Eastern Wash. is 2-2 this season when it holds opponents under 38, and 0-4 when it doesn't.
The Eagles allowed 9.4 yards per pass attempt (1,094 yards on 116 attempts) over their first 4 games (1-3), #122 in FCS over that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), Eastern Wash. has allowed 7.6 yards per pass attempt (799 yards on 105 attempts), a 19% drop, #87 in FCS over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.8 yards per attempt on the season. On the season, the Eagles rank #119 in FCS in pass defense. That form gets a real test against Montana, whose passing game ranks #15 in FCS (8.2 yards per attempt). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Montana the edge: Eastern Wash.'s front grades -0.3 against Montana's offensive line at +2.8 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
Something changed for Eastern Wash.'s third-down offense after its first 3 games. Eastern Wash. converted 50% of third downs (20-for-40) over its first 3 games (1-2), #13 in FCS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Eagles have converted 41.5% of third downs (39-for-94), a 17% drop, #48 in FCS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Eastern Wash.'s last 5 opponents have averaged 38.2%, a #42 third-down defense in FCS on the season, against 45.7%, #106 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (38.2%), Eastern Wash. converted third downs 9% more often than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Eastern Wash. ranks #26 in FCS in third-down offense. Montana's third-down defense sits in the middle of the pack, #96 in FCS (44.3%).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Eastern Wash. has played one of the toughest schedules in the pool so far (#4 of 130), and what is left is a tougher-than-average slate (#35 of 129): the hard part is behind it.
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#4 of 130
avg opponent rating +26.7 over 8 games · 6 vs top-25 FCS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#35 of 129
avg opponent rating +17.0 over 4 games · 2 vs top-25
@Northern… L 27-34UNI W 34-24@South Da… L 23-41@Washingt… L 16-48Cal Poly L 27-31@Uc Davis L 38-49Northern… W 31-22Montana … L 20-56Montana@Idaho@Utah TechPortland…
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 17 game; last updated Oct 25; roster and numbers checked Sep 17.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 65.1/100 (+19 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 36.4/100 (-26 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 27.7/100 (+26 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 11.3/100 (+81 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-31
vs
MONTANA
5-3
37.8
2026-11-07
at
IDAHO
2-5
29.7
2026-11-14
at
UTAH TECH
0-7
14.9
2026-11-21
vs
PORTLAND ST.
2-5
23.7
LAST YEAR
EW finished 2025 at 5-7. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 52-31 over WESTERN ILL. (WESTERN ILL. finished 33% that season). Toughest loss: 14-17 to UNI (3-point margin).
• [CLUB] Eastern Wash. has gone 14 straight games being held under 5.0 yards per carry (October 18, 2025 through October 17, 2026), going 5-9 over that stretch, a school-record 14 straight in the 22 seasons on record.
• [CLUB] Eastern Wash. has gone 14 straight games being held under 7.0 yards per play (October 18, 2025 through October 17, 2026), going 5-9 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (15 games).
• [CLUB] Eastern Wash. has gone 6 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards (September 12, 2026 through October 17, 2026), going 1-5 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2026 (15 games).
• [CLUB] Eastern Wash. has gone 4 straight games throwing for 200+ yards (September 26, 2026 through October 17, 2026), going 1-3 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2026 (7 games).
• [PLAYER] Nate Bell has 1029 passing yards over his last 3 games (343.0 a game, October 3, 2026 through October 17, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Nate Bell has 8 touchdown passes over his last 3 games (2.7 a game, October 3, 2026 through October 17, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Wesley Garrett has 269 receiving yards over his last 3 games (89.7 a game, October 3, 2026 through October 17, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Jaylon Jenkins has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Eastern Wash., over a 29-game career on record. His career high is 7, set August 30, 2025 against Uiw (L, 21-31).
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
EW HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• EW averages 7.0+ yards per play (.778), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• EW holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.609)
• EW holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.500)
• EW holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.500)
• EW's offense has failed to reach 5.0 YPC in 14 straight games (10/18/2025-10/17/2026), going 5-9 over that stretch.
• EW's defense has averaged 9.3 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 74-game average is 5.5 YPC. (+69%)
• EW's defense has conceded 100+ rush yds in 6 straight games (09/12/2026-10/17/2026), going 1-5 over that stretch.
• EW's defense has averaged 1.8 takeaways per game over their last 10 games. Their 74-game average is 1.3 takeaways per game. (+42%)
• EW's offense has exceeded 200 pass yds in 4 straight games (09/26/2026-10/17/2026), going 1-3 over that stretch.
• EW's defense has conceded 150+ rush yds in 4 straight games (09/26/2026-10/17/2026), going 1-3 over that stretch.
• EW throws for 200+ yards despite being held under 100 rushing yards
• EW holds its opponents under 211.5 rushing yards (EW's own median) (.514)
• EASTERN WASH. has passed for 250+ in 4 straight games (9/26/26–10/17/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• EASTERN WASH. has allowed 200+ rushing in 4 straight games (9/26/26–10/17/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• EASTERN WASH. has allowed 400+ total yards in 6 straight games (9/12/26–10/17/26). It has not reached 7 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• EASTERN WASH. has allowed a 100-yard receiver in 2 straight games (10/10/26–10/17/26). It has not allowed a 100-yard receiver in 3 straight since 11/9/24–9/20/25 (2025).
EW's defense has averaged 9.3 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 74-game average is 5.5 YPC. (+69%)
EW's defense has averaged 1.8 takeaways per game over their last 10 games. Their 74-game average is 1.3 takeaways per game. (+42%)
EW's defense has averaged 291.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 74-game average is 220.9 rush yards per game. (+32%)
EW's defense has averaged 8.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 74-game average is 6.8 YPP. (+30%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where EASTERN WASH. sits among 130 FCS teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 50.8, Defense Grade 19.4.
YARDS / PLAY ALLOWED: EASTERN WASH. VS THE FCS
EASTERN WASH. ranks #126 of 130 FCS teams in yards per play allowed (7.40) -- a weakness worth a look.
EASTERN WASH.: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- -4.0 in 2022 to 1.2 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
1.99 points per offensive possession (104 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 42.9% success rate, 14.3% explosive play rate (63 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
3
pass 67%, rush 33%
1 & medium
7
rush 86%, pass 14%
1 & long
257
rush 50%, pass 48%, sack 2%
2 & short
32
rush 66%, pass 31%, sack 3%
2 & medium
67
pass 60%, rush 33%, sack 7%
2 & long
102
pass 60%, rush 35%, sack 5%
3 & short
32
rush 72%, pass 28%
3 & medium
52
pass 71%, rush 15%, sack 13%
3 & long
51
pass 73%, rush 24%, sack 4%
4 & short
10
rush 60%, pass 40%
4 & medium
4
pass 75%, rush 25%
4 & long
2
pass 50%, sack 50%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
3 of 8 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: -11.1 final vs. -7.6 before garbage time — this team gets padded on (-3.5 pts/game)
Biggest swing: 21 points, vs. Montana St. on 2026-10-17 (-36 final, -15 real)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
ADVANCED PLAYER STATS
NATE BELL (QB): +0.20 EPA/dropback, 47.9% success rate, 146 dropbacks
Final 2 Minutes (SKILL): NATE BELL — 26 yds, 4 touches
Final 2 Minutes (DEFENSE): AMBROSE MARSH — 4 tackles
ADVANCED METRICS EXPLAINED (9)
EPA / Dropback
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
Red Zone Splits
How a player performed once his team's offense (or the opponent's, for a defender) reached inside the 20-yard line.
Inputs: Every play on file within 20 yards of the goal line (`distance_to_goal <= 20`) this player was involved in. COVERAGE CAVEAT: true field position is only recorded for about a third of plays leaguewide, concentrated in FBS/FCS games -- a player whose games come from a source without it will show thin or missing red-zone splits even if he played plenty of red-zone snaps. This is a gap in the underlying play-by-play data, not a sign he didn't play there.
Final 2 Minutes of a Half
How a player performed in the last two minutes of either half -- the clock-management, high-pressure stretch at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Inputs: Every play on file in the 2nd or 4th quarter with 2:00 or less on the clock this player was involved in. Same field-position/clock coverage caveat as Red Zone Splits above -- roughly a third of plays leaguewide carry a usable clock reading, concentrated in FBS/FCS games.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
10/20/2026 14:41
