Next: vs Douglas County, Fri 6 Nov. Matchup report: Douglas County at Westlake.

The number to watch when Westlake meets Douglas County is Westlake's scoring defense. Westlake allowed 15.2 points per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #88 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), the Lions have allowed 41.0 points per game, a 169% rise, #418 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Westlake's last 5 opponents have averaged 37.2 points per game, a #69 offense in section on the season, against 22.1 points per game, #277 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (37.2 points per game), Westlake allowed 10% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #45 in section, well above the first 4 (#207), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Douglas County's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Tigers have averaged 23.0 points per game over their last 5 games (3-2), #260 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in section (26.2 points per game on the season, which would rank #263). Against those norms, Douglas County scored 12% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #83 in section, a strong slate. Douglas County offers Westlake a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Westlake is 4-0 this season when it holds opponents under 18, and 3-2 when it doesn't.

The battle on the air could decide Westlake's next game, against Douglas County, and the recent returns favor Douglas County. Westlake allowed 4.4 yards per pass attempt (323 yards on 74 attempts) over its first 4 games (4-0), #33 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), the Lions have allowed 10.2 yards per pass attempt (1,006 yards on 99 attempts), a 133% rise, #356 in section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 8.5 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.8 yards per attempt), Westlake allowed 16% more per attempt than those passing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #45 in section, well above the first 4 (#207), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Douglas County's passing game has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Tigers have averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt (1,187 yards on 144 attempts) over their last 5 games (3-2), #195 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of pass defenses in section (8.4 yards per attempt on the season, which would rank #270). Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #83 in section, a strong slate. Douglas County offers Westlake a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

Westlake's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Westlake averaged 8.6 yards per carry (2,541 yards on 294 rushes) on the season, #28 in section, but that number is boosted by a 437-yard game on 14 rushes against Wheeler on 8/28. In all other games, Westlake is at 7.5 yards per carry (2,104 yards on 280 rushes), a figure that would rank #69 in section. Context matters here: Wheeler's run defense ranks among the weakest in section (9.4 yards per carry, #451 of 465), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Against Douglas County, Westlake draws a middle-of-the-pack run defense (5.3 yards per carry, #171), so expect something closer to the 7.5 version.

The biggest worry in Westlake's season has been the direction of its defense. The Lions allowed 4.6 yards per play (1,027 yards on 225 snaps) over their first 4 games (4-0), #41 in section within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), Westlake has allowed 8.2 yards per play (2,086 yards on 254 snaps), an 80% rise, #357 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Westlake's last 5 opponents have averaged 7.8 yards per play, a #90 offense in section on the season, against 6.8 yards per play, #194 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #45 in section, well above the first 4 (#207), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Lions rank #221 in section in yards per play allowed. Douglas County's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #174 in section (6.9 yards per play).

Westlake's run defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Westlake allowed 4.8 yards per carry (958 yards on 200 rushes) over its first 5 games (5-0), #131 in section during those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Lions have allowed 7.8 yards per carry (826 yards on 106 rushes), a 63% rise, #376 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Westlake's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.9 yards per carry, a #101 rushing attack in section on the season, against 6.1 yards per carry, #174 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per carry), Westlake allowed 13% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #46 in section, well above the first 5 (#147), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Westlake ranks #242 in section in run defense. Douglas County's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #234 in section (5.4 yards per carry).

The Lions averaged 11.1 yards per play (2,870 yards on 259 snaps) over their first 5 games (5-0), #6 in section during that stretch. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), Westlake has averaged 7.6 yards per play (1,933 yards on 256 snaps), a 32% drop, #143 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Westlake's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.9 yards per play, a #272 defense in section on the season, against 7.6 yards per play, #348 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per play), Westlake gained 9% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #46 in section, well above the first 5 (#147), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Lions rank #36 in section in yards per play. Douglas County's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #167 in section (6.1 yards per play).

Something changed for Westlake's passing game after the first 5 games of the season. Westlake averaged 12.1 yards per pass attempt (1,251 yards on 103 attempts) over its first 5 games (5-0), #26 in section over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Lions have averaged 8.6 yards per pass attempt (1,011 yards on 118 attempts), a 29% drop, #171 in section over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Westlake's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.8 yards per attempt, a #223 pass defense in section on the season, against 9.2 yards per attempt, #345 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.8 yards per attempt), Westlake threw for 9% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #46 in section, well above the first 5 (#147), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Westlake ranks #68 in section in passing. Douglas County's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #167 in section (7.3 yards per attempt).