Next: at Stevens, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Warren at Stevens.

The turnover battle could decide Warren's next game, against Stevens, and the recent returns favor Stevens. Warren forced 2.5 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #73 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), the Warriors have forced 1.2 takeaways per game, a 52% drop, #552 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.2 per game, a #591 offense in section on the season, against 1.3 per game, #701 for the first 4. Meanwhile, Stevens' ball security has struggled in recent weeks. The Falcons have committed 2.0 giveaways per game over their last 5 games (1-4), #987 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (1.4 per game on the season, which would rank #464). Against those norms, Stevens turned it over 38% more than those defenses usually force. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.

The number to watch when Warren meets Stevens is Warren's run defense. Warren allowed 5.7 yards per carry (1,147 yards on 200 rushes) over its first 5 games (3-2), #572 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Warriors have allowed 7.3 yards per carry (953 yards on 130 rushes), a 28% rise, #870 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.1 yards per carry, a #283 rushing attack in section on the season, against 6.1 yards per carry, #473 for the first 5. Meanwhile, Stevens' ground game has struggled in recent weeks. The Falcons have averaged 1.8 yards per carry (203 yards on 114 rushes) over their last 4 games (1-3), #951 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better run defenses in section (4.9 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #301). Against those norms, Stevens ran for 64% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.

The biggest shift in Warren's season has come in its ball security. Warren committed 2.2 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #1041 in section within that period. In the 5 games since that slow start (3-2), the Warriors have committed 1.4 giveaways per game, a 38% drop, #688 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.4 per game, a #464 defense in section on the season, against 1.3 per game, #564 for the first 4. On the season, Warren ranks #986 in section in giveaways. The trend lines up well against Stevens, whose defense ranks just #1019 of 1233 (0.6 per game).

Warren's offense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Warriors averaged 41.3 points per game over their first 3 games (2-1), #209 in section during those games. In the 6 games since that hot start (3-3), Warren has averaged 24.8 points per game, a 40% drop, #786 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 6 opponents have averaged 21.8 points per game, a #308 scoring defense in section on the season, against 29.6 points per game, #675 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (21.8 points per game), Warren scored 14% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #491 in section, well above the first 3 (#770), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Warren was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 7 against Harlan on 9/18. On the season, the Warriors rank #578 in section in scoring. Stevens' defense, #1030 of 1235 (40.0 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Warren needs. Warren is 3-0 this season when it scores 40 or more, and 2-4 when it doesn't.

Something changed for Warren's ground game after its first 3 games. Warren averaged 5.5 yards per carry (459 yards on 83 rushes) over its first 3 games (2-1), #562 in section during that stretch. In the 6 games since that hot start (3-3), the Warriors have averaged 3.7 yards per carry (543 yards on 146 rushes), a 33% drop, #905 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 6 opponents have averaged 4.8 yards per carry, a #264 run defense in section on the season, against 5.8 yards per carry, #559 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.8 yards per carry), Warren ran for 23% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #491 in section, well above the first 3 (#770), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Warren ranks #874 in section in rushing. Stevens' run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #677 in section (6.2 yards per carry).

Warren's offense has gained fewer yards per snap as the season has worn on. The Warriors averaged 7.5 yards per play (1,585 yards on 210 snaps) over their first 5 games (3-2), #344 in section over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), Warren has averaged 5.7 yards per play (1,242 yards on 219 snaps), a 25% drop, #708 in section over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 4 opponents have averaged 5.3 yards per play, a #149 defense in section on the season, against 6.3 yards per play, #421 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.3 yards per play), Warren gained 7% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, the Warriors rank #584 in section in yards per play. Stevens' defense sits in the middle of the pack, #629 in section (6.9 yards per play).

Warren's passing game has misfired through the air as the season has progressed. Warren averaged 10.5 yards per pass attempt (1,006 yards on 96 attempts) over its first 5 games (3-2), #159 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Warriors have averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt (819 yards on 104 attempts), a 25% drop, #497 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Warren's last 4 opponents have averaged 5.9 yards per attempt, a #142 pass defense in section on the season, against 7.7 yards per attempt, #527 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.9 yards per attempt), Warren threw for 33% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Warren ranks #313 in section in passing. Stevens' pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #615 in section (8.1 yards per attempt).