In short: Van Alstyne Panthers high school football (Van Alstyne, TX), 2026 season: 7-1. Last game: W 56-14 vs Ponder on October 23, 2026. Next: at Gainesville, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 7-1 this season |
| LAST GAME | W 56-14 vs PONDER |
| NEXT GAME | GAINESVILLE (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 67.7 · Rush Off 82.6 · Pass Def 37.2 · Rush Def 70.5 |
| ENROLLMENT | 729 STUDENTS (2024-25) · PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOL |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN ALSTYNE | 67.7 (+24) | 82.6 (+79) | 37.2 (+14) | 70.5 (-44) |
Next: at Gainesville, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Van Alstyne at Gainesville.
The turnover battle could decide Van Alstyne's next game, against Gainesville, and the recent returns favor Van Alstyne. Van Alstyne forced 1.7 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #392 in section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), the Panthers have forced 2.7 takeaways per game, a 60% rise, #72 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Van Alstyne's last 4 opponents have averaged 2.2 per game, a #1129 offense in section on the season, against 1.0 per game, #355 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (2.2 per game), Van Alstyne forced 20% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Meanwhile, Gainesville's ball security has struggled in recent weeks. The Leopards have committed 3.0 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (0-4), #1156 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the better defenses in section (2.2 per game on the season, which would rank #118). Against those norms, Gainesville turned it over 35% more than those defenses usually force. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Van Alstyne.
The number to watch when Van Alstyne meets Gainesville is Van Alstyne's scoring. Van Alstyne averaged 39.2 points per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #253 in section through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), the Panthers have averaged 56.2 points per game, a 43% rise, #36 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Van Alstyne's last 4 opponents have averaged 32.3 points per game, a #790 scoring defense in section on the season, against 29.1 points per game, #647 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (32.3 points per game), Van Alstyne scored 74% more than those defenses usually allow. Meanwhile, Gainesville's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Leopards have allowed 72.5 points per game over their last 4 games (0-4), #1234 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better offenses in section (39.3 points per game on the season, which would rank #258). Against those norms, Gainesville allowed 84% more than those offenses usually score. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Van Alstyne.
The biggest shift in Van Alstyne's season has come in its run defense. Van Alstyne allowed 5.1 yards per carry (552 yards on 108 rushes) over its first 4 games (3-1), #388 in section within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), the Panthers have allowed 4.2 yards per carry (441 yards on 106 rushes), a 19% drop, #227 in section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.0 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per carry), Van Alstyne held those rushing attacks 40% below their usual yards per carry. On the season, Van Alstyne ranks #229 in section in run defense. Gainesville's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #691 in section (5.2 yards per carry).
• Club Van Alstyne has won 4 straight, and a win would make it 5 in a row. The last time they won 5 or more in a row was 2024, a run of 7.
• Club The last time Van Alstyne went a game being held under 100 rushing yards was November 17, 2023 against Carthage (L, 7-49). Since then Van Alstyne has gone 30 straight games rushing for 100+ yards, a school-record 30 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Van Alstyne is 22-2 all time when scoring 40+ points. Van Alstyne's last loss when scoring 40+ points was November 13, 2025 against Sunnyvale (L, 41-49).
• Club Van Alstyne has scored 176 points over its last 3 games (58.7 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Cayden Benedict has never had a game rushing for 100+ yards for Van Alstyne, over a 24-game career on record. His career high is 89, set September 20, 2024 against Aubrey (L, 34-62).
DATA WARNING: VAN ALSTYNE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME VS. PONDER* MISSING
DATA WARNING: VAN ALSTYNE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/16/2026 GAME @ KRUM* MISSING
DATA WARNING: VAN ALSTYNE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/09/2026 GAME VS. LAKE WORTH* MISSING
DATA WARNING: VAN ALSTYNE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/25/2026 GAME @ FORD MISSING
DATA WARNING: VAN ALSTYNE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/18/2026 GAME @ SUNNYVALE MISSING
DATA WARNING: VAN ALSTYNE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/11/2026 GAME VS. GREENVILLE MISSING
DATA WARNING: VAN ALSTYNE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/04/2026 GAME @ AUBREY MISSING
All stat areas in this report are subject to change as box scores are updated.
From the games on file through Aug 28.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Aug 28 game; last updated Sep 19; roster and numbers checked Sep 13.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| PLAYER #12 | 1 | 6/9 | 66.7% | 110 | 12.2 | 1 | 0 | 206.0 | |
| 8 | JACKSON DUNCAN | 1 | 4/4 | 100.0% | 39 | 9.8 | 1 | 0 | 264.4 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 1 | 10/13 | 76.9% | 149 | 11.5 | 2 | 0 | 224.0 | |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| PLAYER #12 | 1 | 4 | 95 | 23.8 | 1 | |
| 5 | TUCKER PITCOX | 1 | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| 3 | CAYDEN BENEDICT | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| 8 | JACKSON DUNCAN | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 1 | 16 | 143 | 8.9 | 2 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| 10 | TANNER POWERS | 1 | 1 | 75 | 75.0 | 1 |
| 3 | CAYDEN BENEDICT | 1 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 5 | TUCKER PITCOX | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| PLAYER #12 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | |
| 4 | TIM MOORE | 1 | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 1 | 9 | 137 | 15.2 | 2 | |
| DEFENSE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | TCKL | TFL | SACKS | INT | INT YDS | PD | FF |
| PLAYER #12 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | TUCKER PITCOX | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | JACKSON DUNCAN | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | MAJOR MORRIS | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | LOGAN MAYES | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | JOVANY BEAVERS | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | KAIGE WALKER | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | SAMMY LATHROP | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | AIDEN LANDEROS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 81 | AYDEN MOWRY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | CAYDEN BENEDICT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | GRAHAM HAYNES | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | XAVIER VIDAURRI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 1 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 7-5 | 438 | 402 | 36.5 |
| 2023 | 7-4 | 324 | 241 | 29.5 |
| 2024 | 8-4 | 535 | 400 | 44.6 |
| 2025 | 4-6 | 363 | 338 | 36.3 |
| 2026 | 7-1 | 382 | 167 | 47.8 |
| 2022-26 | 33-20 | 38.5 |
1 state final loss
| YEAR | HONOR |
| 2001 | UIL STATE 2A D1 RUNNER-UP (lost to Blanco 16-0) |
State championship games and title-game MVPs: UIL Fall Almanac 2025-26. League finishes: no league schedule on file yet, so none is claimed.
| # | Team | Dist | Ovr | Rank | Proj. | Dist. pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VAN ALSTYNE | 3-0 | 7-1 | 18 / 155 | 1 (4.7-0.3) | 176-68 | 10/30 vs GAINESVILLE |
| 2 | SANGER | 2-1 | 6-2 | 28 / 302 | 3 (3.0-2.0) | 173-56 | 10/30 vs PONDER |
| 3 | PONDER | 2-1 | 5-3 | 39 / 439 | 4 (2.7-2.3) | 155-56 | 10/30 vs SANGER |
| 4 | KRUM | 2-1 | 5-3 | 26 / 283 | 2 (3.7-1.3) | 154-70 | 10/30 vs LAKE WORTH |
| 5 | LAKE WORTH | 0-3 | 1-7 | 83 / 1130 | 5 (0.6-4.4) | 26-208 | 10/30 vs KRUM |
| 6 | GAINESVILLE | 0-3 | 0-8 | 86 / 1164 | 6 (0.4-4.6) | 0-226 | 10/30 vs VAN ALSTYNE |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/28 | CARTER | vs | W | 55-7 | |
| 09/04 | AUBREY | at | W | 40-36 | |
| 09/11 | GREENVILLE | vs | W | 38-13 | |
| 09/18 | SUNNYVALE | at | L | 24-36 | |
| 09/25 | FORD | at | W | 49-7 | |
| 10/09 | LAKE WORTH | vs | W | 83-26 | |
| 10/16 | KRUM | at | W | 37-28 | |
| 10/23 | PONDER | vs | W | 56-14 | |
| 10/30 | GAINESVILLE | at | PROJ | 56-12 | 98.4% |
| 11/05 | SANGER | vs | PROJ | 38-33 | 59.0% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 7-1 | 2 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 7-1 so far | 9-1 (54%) | 8.5-1.5 |
| League | 3-0 so far | 3-0 (100%) | 3.0-0.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 8 | 47.8 | 20.9 | 304.0 | 309.8 | 36.0 | 49.2 |
| HOME | 4 | 58.0 | 15.0 | 304.0 | 290.7 | 36.0 | 47.7 |
| ROAD | 4 | 37.5 | 26.8 | -- | 329.0 | -- | 50.7 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Box-score coverage behind YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME: Overall 1/8 game(s), Home 1/4 game(s), Road 0/4 game(s).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/28 | vs. Carter | W 55-7 | 149 | 155 | 304 | 55 | 210 | 265 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +3 |
| 9/4 | @ Aubrey | W 40-36 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 9/11 | vs. Greenville | W 38-13 | -- | -- | -- | 144 | 180 | 324 | 4 | -- | -- | 0 | -2 |
| 9/18 | @ Sunnyvale | L 24-36 | -- | -- | -- | 320 | 162 | 482 | 8 | -- | -- | 1 | +1 |
| 9/25 | @ Ford | W 49-7 | -- | -- | -- | 24 | 156 | 180 | -- | -- | -- | 3 | +1 |
| 10/9 | vs. Lake Worth | W 83-26 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 10/16 | @ Krum | W 37-28 | -- | -- | -- | 289 | 36 | 325 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +1 |
| 10/23 | vs. Ponder | W 56-14 | -- | -- | -- | 34 | 249 | 283 | -- | -- | -- | 3 | +3 |
| AVERAGES | 149.0 | 155.0 | 304.0 | 144.3 | 165.5 | 309.8 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | +7 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 1/8, defense 6/8, sacks/INT 1/8, sacks allowed 3/8, turnovers 6/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 67.7/100 (+24 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 82.6/100 (+79 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 37.2/100 (+14 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 70.5/100 (-44 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | at | GAINESVILLE | 0-8 | 5.6 |
| 2026-11-05 | vs | SANGER | 6-2 | 42.4 |
LAST YEAR
VA finished 2025 at 4-6. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 43-37 over FARMERSVILLE (FARMERSVILLE finished 50% that season). Toughest loss: 19-23 to KRUM (4-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | LIFE WAXAHACHIE | W | 1-0 | 54 | 13 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-12 | PARIS | L | 1-1 | 24 | 52 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-19 | AUBREY | L | 1-2 | 19 | 29 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-03 | KRUM | L | 1-3 | 19 | 23 | 417 | 339 |
| 2025-10-10 | SANGER | L | 1-4 | 23 | 73 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | GAINESVILLE | W | 2-4 | 41 | 13 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-23 | FARMERSVILLE | W | 3-4 | 43 | 37 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-31 | BONHAM | W | 4-4 | 71 | 14 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | CADDO MILLS | L | 4-5 | 28 | 35 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-13 | SUNNYVALE | L | 4-6 | 41 | 49 | 514 | 507 |
| TOTALS | 10 GMS | 4-6 | 4-6 | 363 | 338 | 931 (2) | 846 (2) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• VA holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• VA holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• VA commits 1+ giveaways (.833), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• VA holds its opponents under 200 passing yards (.833), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• VA's offense has averaged 0.5 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 1.1 giveaways per game. (-55%)
• VA holds its opponents under 6.9 yards per attempt (VA's own median) (.999)
• VA's offense has averaged 58.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 42.7 points scored per game. (+38%)
• VA holds its opponents under 144.0 passing yards (VA's own median) (.999)
• VA holds its opponents under 6.5 yards per play (VA's own median) (.999)
• VA's offense has averaged 121.3 pass yards per game over their last 10 games. Their 15-game average is 178.7 pass yards per game. (-32%)
• VA's defense has averaged 3.5 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 5.0 YPC. (-30%)
• VA's defense has averaged 22.2 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 30-game average is 30.2 points allowed per game. (-26%)
• VA's defense has averaged 142.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 186.3 rush yards per game. (-24%)
• VA rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards
• VA wins even while allowing its opponents 180.0+ rushing yards (VA's own median) (.800)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
VA -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 6 scored; vs 236 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Pass Yds < 200 | 6-3 | .667 | 47.6 | W1 | 0.872 |
| 2 | DEF | Rush Yds 150+ | 5-3 | .625 | 23.8 | W2 | 0.515 |
| 3 | DEF | Rush Yds 100+ | 5-3 | .625 | 23.8 | W2 | 0.496 |
| 4 | OFF | Turnovers < 3 | 5-3 | .625 | 39.9 | W3 | 0.312 |
| 5 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 9-6 | .600 | 43.7 | W1 | 0.264 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- VA ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| VA rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 6-3 | .667 | 47.6 | W1 |
| VA averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 2-2 | .500 | 39.2 | W1 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| VA | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 6-3 | .667 | 47.6 |
| VA | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 2-2 | .500 | 39.2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 48.5 | W2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 30.0 | L2 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 3-3 | .500 | 37.8 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 6-3 | .667 | 47.6 | W1 | 15 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 9-6 | .600 | 43.7 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 15 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 9-6 | .600 | 43.7 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 15 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-2 | .500 | 39.2 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 26 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 46.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 19.0 | L1 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 48.5 | W2 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 30.0 | L2 | 26 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 5-1 | .833 | 40.0 | W4 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-2 | .333 | 40.3 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 43.0 | W3 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 42.0 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-2 | .000 | 19.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 0-4 | .000 | 24.8 |
| Scores 30-39 | 3-3 | .500 | 34.8 |
| Scores 40+ | 16-2 | .889 | 51.9 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 55.0 | W1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 7 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 55.0 | W1 | 7 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 55.0 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 7 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 55.0 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 7 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 55.0 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 7 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 55.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 7 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 55.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 7 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 44.8 | W4 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 40.0 | W1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 43.5 | W2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 2 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 20-29 | 0-1 | .000 | 24.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 37.5 |
| Scores 40+ | 5-0 | 1.000 | 56.6 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 34.0 | W1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 17.2 | W4 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-2 | .333 | 37.7 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 5-1 | .833 | 17.5 | W4 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 5-3 | .625 | 23.8 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 28.0 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 5-3 | .625 | 23.8 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 28.0 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-1 | .800 | 24.8 | W3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 23.5 | W2 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-3 | .400 | 29.8 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 17.2 | W4 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 32.7 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 5-1 | .833 | 20.0 | W4 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-1 | .800 | 18.4 | W3 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W4 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.3 | W3 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 5.2 |
| Allows 10-19 | 7-0 | 1.000 | 13.3 |
| Allows 20-29 | 2-2 | .500 | 26.5 |
| Allows 30-39 | 5-2 | .714 | 34.7 |
| Allows 40+ | 1-7 | .125 | 55.2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 32.0 | W1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.3 | W3 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 32.0 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 10.2 | W4 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-1 | .800 | 15.4 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 28.0 | W1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 4-1 | .800 | 15.4 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 28.0 | W1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.3 | W3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 23.7 | W2 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 25.7 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.3 | W3 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 24.5 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W4 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-1 | .800 | 18.4 | W3 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W4 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.3 | W3 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 13.5 |
| Allows 20-29 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 27.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 1-1 | .500 | 36.0 |
| Allows 40+ | -- | -- | -- |
VAN ALSTYNE
• VAN ALSTYNE has forced 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). Earlier games have no box score on file, so the run may be longer. It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• VAN ALSTYNE has won 4 straight (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not won 5 straight since 10/4/24–11/15/24 (2024).
• VAN ALSTYNE has scored 30+ in 4 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not scored 30+ in 5 straight since 8/30/24–8/29/25 (2025).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| VA | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 48.5 | W2 |
| VA | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 30.0 | L2 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 37.8 | L1 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 9 | 6-3 | .667 | 47.6 | W1 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 15 | 9-6 | .600 | 43.7 | W1 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 15 | 9-6 | .600 | 43.7 | W1 |
| VA | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 39.2 | W1 |
| VA | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 46.0 | W1 |
| VA | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 19.0 | L1 |
| VA | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 48.5 | W2 |
| VA | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 30.0 | L2 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 40.0 | W4 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 40.3 | W1 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 43.0 | W3 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 42.0 | W1 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 19.0 | L2 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 24.8 | L4 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 34.8 | W3 |
| VA | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 18 | 16-2 | .889 | 51.9 | W5 |
| VA | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 34.0 | W1 |
| VA | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 17.2 | W4 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 37.7 | W1 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 17.5 | W4 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 23.8 | W2 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 28.0 | W1 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 23.8 | W2 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 28.0 | W1 |
| VA | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 24.8 | W3 |
| VA | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 23.5 | W2 |
| VA | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 29.8 | W1 |
| VA | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 17.2 | W4 |
| VA | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 32.7 | L1 |
| VA | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 20.0 | W4 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 18.4 | W3 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W4 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.3 | W3 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 5.2 | W4 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 7 | 7-0 | 1.000 | 13.3 | W7 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 26.5 | W2 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 34.7 | L1 |
| VA | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 55.2 | L4 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
VA OFFENSE
VA's offense has averaged 0.5 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 1.1 giveaways per game. (-55%)
VA's offense has averaged 58.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 42.7 points scored per game. (+38%)
VA's offense has averaged 121.3 pass yards per game over their last 10 games. Their 15-game average is 178.7 pass yards per game. (-32%)
VA DEFENSE
VA's defense has averaged 3.5 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 5.0 YPC. (-30%)
VA's defense has averaged 22.2 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 30-game average is 30.2 points allowed per game. (-26%)
VA's defense has averaged 142.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 186.3 rush yards per game. (-24%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| VA | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 10 | 121.3 | 15 | 178.7 | -32.1% | |
| VA | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 5 | 22.2 | 30 | 30.2 | -26.4% | |
| VA | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 58.7 | 30 | 42.7 | +37.5% | |
| VA | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 142.5 | 9 | 186.3 | -23.5% | |
| VA | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.5 | 9 | 1.1 | -55.0% | |
| VA | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 3.5 | 9 | 5.0 | -29.7% |
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 0.0 in 2022 to 5.7 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
