Next: at Laredo LBJ, Thu 5 Nov. Matchup report: United South at Laredo LBJ.

The turnover battle could decide United South's next game, against Laredo LBJ, and the recent returns favor United South. United South forced 0.2 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #1095 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (3-2), the Panthers have forced 1.4 takeaways per game, a 460% rise, #409 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: United South's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.2 per game, a #636 offense in section on the season, against 1.0 per game, #477 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.2 per game), United South forced 12% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #675 in section, well below the first 4 (#273), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Laredo LBJ's ball security has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Wolves have committed 1.2 giveaways per game over their last 5 games (3-2), #586 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (1.1 per game on the season, which would rank #675). Against those norms, Laredo LBJ turned it over 7% more than those defenses usually force. Laredo LBJ offers United South a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

The number to watch when United South meets Laredo LBJ is United South's scoring. United South averaged 11.8 points per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #1135 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (3-2), the Panthers have averaged 27.0 points per game, a 130% rise, #693 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: United South's last 5 opponents have averaged 27.0 points per game, a #553 scoring defense in section on the season, against 18.4 points per game, #198 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #675 in section, well below the first 4 (#273), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Laredo LBJ's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Wolves have allowed 21.0 points per game over their last 5 games (3-2), #342 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in section (22.7 points per game on the season, which would rank #856). Against those norms, Laredo LBJ held those offenses 8% below what they usually score. Something has to give when United South's surging offense meets one of section's better units in Laredo LBJ's. United South is 3-1 this season when it scores 25 or more, and 0-5 when it doesn't.

The biggest shift in United South's season has come in its defense. United South allowed 35.7 points per game over its first 3 games (0-3), #890 in section within that period. In the 6 games since that slow start (3-3), the Panthers have allowed 20.8 points per game, a 42% drop, #327 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: United South's last 6 opponents have averaged 22.9 points per game, a #851 offense in section on the season, against 48.7 points per game, #75 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (22.9 points per game), United South held those offenses 9% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #639 in section, well below the first 3 (#215), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only United broke through in that span, putting up 34 on 10/16. On the season, United South ranks #482 in section in scoring defense. Laredo LBJ's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #567 in section (30.9 points per game). United South is 3-3 this season when it holds opponents under 31, and 0-3 when it doesn't.

The Panthers allowed 5.1 yards per pass attempt (534 yards on 105 attempts) over their first 6 games (2-4), #77 in section during those games. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), United South has allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt (490 yards on 77 attempts), a 25% rise, #330 in section during that period. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 3 opponents have been softer, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt, a #713 passing attack in section on the season, against 8.5 yards per attempt, #423 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.8 yards per attempt), United South held those passing attacks 6% below their usual yards per attempt. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, the Panthers rank #97 in section in pass defense. Laredo LBJ's passing game sits in the middle of the pack, #590 in section (7.6 yards per attempt).

United South's run defense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. United South allowed 6.4 yards per carry (811 yards on 127 rushes) over its first 3 games (0-3), #749 in section during that stretch. In the 6 games since that slow start (3-3), the Panthers have allowed 5.4 yards per carry (852 yards on 158 rushes), a 16% drop, #436 in section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: United South's last 6 opponents have averaged 5.3 yards per carry, a #675 rushing attack in section on the season, against 8.3 yards per carry, #110 for the first 3. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #639 in section, well below the first 3 (#215), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, United South ranks #558 in section in run defense. Laredo LBJ's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #460 in section (6.2 yards per carry).

Something changed for United South's defense after its first 3 games. The Panthers allowed 6.2 yards per play (1,036 yards on 167 snaps) over their first 3 games (0-3), #487 in section over that timeframe. In the 6 games since that slow start (3-3), United South has allowed 5.5 yards per play (1,651 yards on 300 snaps), an 11% drop, #231 in section over that span. The schedule deserves some of the credit: United South's last 6 opponents have averaged 6.0 yards per play, a #732 offense in section on the season, against 8.7 yards per play, #159 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.0 yards per play), United South held those offenses 8% below their usual yards per snap. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #639 in section, well below the first 3 (#215), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Panthers rank #255 in section in yards per play allowed. Laredo LBJ's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #466 in section (7.1 yards per play).