In short: Umatilla Bulldogs high school football (Umatilla, FL), 2026 season: 5-4. Last game: W 17-6 vs Zarephath Academy on October 23, 2026. Next: at Mount Dora, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 5-4 this season |
| LAST GAME | W 17-6 vs ZAREPHATH ACADEMY |
| NEXT GAME | MOUNT DORA (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 71.6 · Rush Off 19.9 · Pass Def 27.9 · Rush Def 54.7 |
| ENROLLMENT | 861 STUDENTS (2022-23) · PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOL |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMATILLA | 71.6 (+34) | 19.9 (-83) | 27.9 (+28) | 54.7 (-12) |
Next: at Mount Dora, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Umatilla at Mount Dora.
The number to watch when Umatilla meets Mount Dora is Umatilla's scoring defense. Umatilla allowed 31.8 points per game over its first 6 games (2-4), #441 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Bulldogs have allowed 8.7 points per game, a 73% drop, #62 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Umatilla's last 3 opponents have averaged 9.6 points per game, a #499 offense in section on the season, against 26.7 points per game, #214 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.6 points per game), Umatilla held those offenses 9% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #478 in section, well below the first 6 (#282), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Mount Dora's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Canes have averaged 9.7 points per game over their last 3 games (0-3), #471 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in section (23.1 points per game on the season, which would rank #303). Against those norms, Mount Dora scored 58% less than those defenses usually allow. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Umatilla. Umatilla is 5-0 this season when it holds opponents under 16, and 0-4 when it doesn't.
The battle on the ground could decide Umatilla's next game, against Mount Dora, and the recent returns favor Umatilla. Umatilla allowed 7.0 yards per carry (675 yards on 96 rushes) over its first 4 games (2-2), #429 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (3-2), the Bulldogs have allowed 4.0 yards per carry (464 yards on 115 rushes), a 43% drop, #93 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Umatilla's last 5 opponents have averaged 8.2 yards per carry, a #51 rushing attack in section on the season, against 6.4 yards per carry, #207 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.2 yards per carry), Umatilla held those rushing attacks 51% below their usual yards per carry. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #367 in section. Meanwhile, Mount Dora's ground game has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Canes have averaged 5.7 yards per carry (850 yards on 149 rushes) over their last 5 games (2-3), #277 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of run defenses in section (5.5 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #242). Mount Dora offers Umatilla a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
The biggest shift in Umatilla's season has come in its offense. Umatilla averaged 14.5 points per game over its first 6 games (2-4), #432 in section within that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Bulldogs have averaged 22.3 points per game, a 54% rise, #296 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Umatilla's last 3 opponents have averaged 28.2 points per game, a #392 scoring defense in section on the season, against 20.5 points per game, #239 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (28.2 points per game), Umatilla scored 21% less than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #478 in section, well below the first 6 (#282), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Umatilla ranks #404 in section in scoring. Mount Dora's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #382 in section (27.8 points per game).
The Bulldogs allowed 7.4 yards per play (1,188 yards on 160 snaps) over their first 4 games (2-2), #377 in section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 5 games since that slow start (3-2), Umatilla has allowed 5.2 yards per play (958 yards on 183 snaps), a 29% drop, #97 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Umatilla's last 5 opponents have averaged 8.6 yards per play, a #82 offense in section on the season, against 6.9 yards per play, #255 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.6 yards per play), Umatilla held those offenses 39% below their usual yards per snap. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #367 in section. On the season, the Bulldogs rank #210 in section in yards per play allowed. The trend lines up well against Mount Dora, whose offense ranks just #434 of 532 (5.2 yards per play).
• Club Umatilla has won 3 straight, and a win would make it 4 in a row. The last time they won 4 or more in a row was 2025, a run of 11.
• Club Umatilla is 14-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (14 such games).
DATA WARNING: UMATILLA OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME VS. ZAREPHATH ACADEMY MISSING
All stat areas in this report are subject to change as box scores are updated.
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 5-5 | 257 | 243 | 25.7 |
| 2023 | 2-8 | 119 | 370 | 11.9 |
| 2024 | 6-5 | 300 | 249 | 27.3 |
| 2025 | 11-1 | 542 | 109 | 45.2 |
| 2026 | 5-4 | 154 | 217 | 17.1 |
| 2022-26 | 29-23 | 26.4 |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/21 | SPACE COAST | at | L | 7-43 | |
| 08/28 | PROVIDENCE SCHOOL | vs | W | 26-13 | |
| 09/03 | EUSTIS | at | W | 27-13 | |
| 09/11 | TRENTON | at | L | 20-49 | |
| 09/18 | BELLEVIEW | at | L | 0-32 | |
| 09/25 | HARDEE | vs | L | 7-41 | |
| 10/02 | PINE RIDGE | vs | W | 17-10 | |
| 10/16 | CRESCENT CITY | at | W | 33-10 | |
| 10/23 | ZAREPHATH ACADEMY | vs | W | 17-6 | |
| 10/30 | MOUNT DORA | at | PROJ | 26-21 | 60.9% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 5-4 | 1 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 5-4 so far | 6-4 (61%) | 5.6-4.4 |
| League | 1-0 so far | 1-0 (100%) | 1.0-0.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 9 | 17.1 | 24.1 | 240.2 | 268.2 | 43.5 | 42.9 |
| HOME | 4 | 16.8 | 17.5 | 192.0 | 165.7 | 38.3 | 33.0 |
| ROAD | 5 | 17.4 | 29.4 | 269.2 | 329.8 | 46.6 | 48.8 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Box-score coverage behind YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME: Overall 8/9 game(s), Home 3/4 game(s), Road 5/5 game(s).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/21 | @ Space Coast | L 7-43 | 110 | 64 | 174 | 159 | 156 | 315 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -2 |
| 8/28 | vs. Providence School | W 26-13 | 116 | 120 | 236 | 90 | 57 | 147 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +1 |
| 9/3 | @ Eustis | W 27-13 | 164 | 71 | 235 | 238 | 126 | 364 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | -1 |
| 9/11 | @ Trenton | L 20-49 | 250 | 17 | 267 | 26 | 336 | 362 | -- | -- | -- | 3 | +3 |
| 9/18 | @ Belleview | L 0-32 | 134 | 88 | 222 | 179 | 243 | 422 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | -1 |
| 9/25 | vs. Hardee | L 7-41 | 43 | 30 | 73 | 142 | 108 | 250 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | +1 |
| 10/2 | vs. Pine Ridge | W 17-10 | 152 | 115 | 267 | 3 | 97 | 100 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -2 |
| 10/16 | @ Crescent City | W 33-10 | 304 | 144 | 448 | 170 | 16 | 186 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +1 |
| 10/23 | vs. Zarephath Academy | W 17-6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| AVERAGES | 159.1 | 81.1 | 240.2 | 125.9 | 142.4 | 268.2 | -- | -- | -- | 1.4 | 0 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 8/9, defense 8/9, sacks/INT 0/9, sacks allowed 0/9, turnovers 8/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 71.6/100 (+34 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 19.9/100 (-83 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 27.9/100 (+28 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 54.7/100 (-12 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | at | MOUNT DORA | 3-6 | 15.9 |
LAST YEAR
UMA finished 2025 at 11-1. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 48-8 over LAKE WEIR (LAKE WEIR finished 45% that season). Toughest loss: 36-45 to WEST NASSAU (9-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-15 | STANTON | W | 1-0 | 53 | 6 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-08-22 | TENOROC | W | 2-0 | 48 | 6 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-05 | EUSTIS | W | 3-0 | 37 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-11 | INTERLACHEN | W | 4-0 | 48 | 6 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-19 | CENTRAL | W | 5-0 | 55 | 6 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-26 | CRYSTAL RIVER | W | 6-0 | 35 | 20 | 320 | N/A |
| 2025-10-03 | LAKE WEIR | W | 7-0 | 48 | 8 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-10 | DISCOVERY | W | 8-0 | 71 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | TAYLOR | W | 9-0 | 42 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-24 | FATHER LOPEZ | W | 10-0 | 43 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-31 | LAKE WEIR | W | 11-0 | 26 | 12 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | WEST NASSAU | L | 11-1 | 36 | 45 | N/A | N/A |
| TOTALS | 12 GMS | 11-1 | 11-1 | 542 | 109 | 320 (1) | N/A |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• UMA rushes for 100+ yards (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• UMA holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• UMA averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• UMA holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.750), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• UMA's defense has averaged 1.7 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 5.6 YPC. (-69%)
• UMA's defense has averaged 56.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 146.2 rush yards per game. (-61%)
• UMA's offense has averaged 129.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 82.3 rush yards per game. (+57%)
• UMA's offense has averaged 14.8 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 32-game average is 31.1 points scored per game. (-52%)
• UMA's defense has averaged 8.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 32-game average is 18.0 points allowed per game. (-52%)
• UMA's defense has averaged 3.3 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 6.7 YPA. (-50%)
• UMA's defense has averaged 3.1 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 6.2 YPP. (-49%)
• UMA's offense has averaged 357.5 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 245.4 total yards per game. (+46%)
• UMA's defense has averaged 143.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 261.3 total yards per game. (-45%)
• UMA's offense has averaged 228.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 163.1 pass yards per game. (+40%)
• UMA rushes for 79.5+ yards (UMA's own median) (.800)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
UMA -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 4 of 4 scored; vs 149 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Rush Yds < 150 | 5-5 | .500 | 18.6 | W2 | 0.860 |
| 2 | OFF | Turnovers < 3 | 4-4 | .500 | 18.9 | W2 | 0.793 |
| 3 | OFF | YPP < 7 | 4-5 | .444 | 17.0 | W1 | 0.432 |
| 4 | DEF | Pass Yds < 200 | 3-5 | .375 | 27.4 | W2 | 0.235 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- UMA ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| UMA holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards | 3-1 | .750 | 18.5 | W2 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| UMA | Rush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 200 | 3-1 | .750 | 18.5 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 24.2 | W2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-3 | .250 | 10.2 | L2 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-1 | .667 | 29.3 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-4 | .429 | 14.0 | W1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 27.8 | W4 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-5 | .167 | 12.5 | L3 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 5-5 | .500 | 18.6 | W2 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 31.3 | W3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-5 | .286 | 13.1 | W1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 3-1 | .750 | 28.5 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-4 | .333 | 12.0 | W1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 33.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 4-5 | .444 | 17.0 | W1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-3 | .571 | 17.7 | W2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.5 | L2 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-3 | .400 | 13.0 | W1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-5 | .000 | 4.2 |
| Scores 10-19 | 2-3 | .400 | 15.8 |
| Scores 20-29 | 4-1 | .800 | 25.2 |
| Scores 30-39 | 5-1 | .833 | 35.3 |
| Scores 40+ | 11-0 | 1.000 | 50.7 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-1 | .750 | 24.0 | W2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-3 | .250 | 10.2 | L2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 26.5 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-3 | .500 | 14.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 25.3 | W3 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-4 | .200 | 12.2 | L3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 4-4 | .500 | 17.1 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 29.5 | W2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-4 | .333 | 13.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 26.3 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-3 | .400 | 11.6 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 33.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-4 | .429 | 14.9 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-2 | .667 | 18.3 | W2 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.5 | L2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-2 | .500 | 12.8 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-3 | .000 | 4.7 |
| Scores 10-19 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 17.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 2-1 | .667 | 24.3 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 33.0 |
| Scores 40+ | -- | -- | -- |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 32.2 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 20.6 | W2 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-5 | .375 | 27.4 | W2 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-5 | .167 | 33.2 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.0 | W3 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-4 | .000 | 36.2 | L4 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 4-1 | .800 | 17.4 | W2 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-4 | .333 | 31.8 | L3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 13.7 | W2 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-4 | .200 | 35.6 | L3 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 13.5 | W3 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 32.3 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-3 | .500 | 22.5 | W2 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-3 | .500 | 26.3 | W1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 26.5 | W1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-2 | .500 | 26.0 | W1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 49.0 | L1 | 24 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 12-0 | 1.000 | 3.8 |
| Allows 10-19 | 6-2 | .750 | 12.6 |
| Allows 20-29 | 2-2 | .500 | 22.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 1-1 | .500 | 33.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 1-5 | .167 | 45.7 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 32.2 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 20.5 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-4 | .429 | 28.3 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-4 | .200 | 35.6 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.0 | W3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-3 | .000 | 41.3 | L3 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 4-1 | .800 | 17.4 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-4 | .333 | 31.8 | L3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 10.0 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-4 | .200 | 35.6 | L3 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.0 | W3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 32.3 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 22.8 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-3 | .500 | 26.3 | W1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 26.5 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-2 | .500 | 26.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 49.0 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 6.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 11.5 |
| Allows 20-29 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-1 | .000 | 32.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-3 | .000 | 44.3 |
UMATILLA
• UMATILLA has held the opponent under 14 in 3 straight games (10/2/26–10/23/26). It has not held the opponent under 14 in 4 straight since 10/3/25–10/31/25 (2025). It has reached 4 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 5 straight (2025) in that span.
• UMATILLA has won 3 straight (10/2/26–10/23/26). It has not won 4 straight since 8/15/25–10/31/25 (2025).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| UMA | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 24.2 | W2 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 10.2 | L2 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 29.3 | W1 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 14.0 | W1 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 27.8 | W4 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 12.5 | L3 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 10 | 5-5 | .500 | 18.6 | W2 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 31.3 | W3 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 13.1 | W1 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 28.5 | W1 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 12.0 | W1 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 33.0 | W1 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 9 | 4-5 | .444 | 17.0 | W1 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 17.7 | W2 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.5 | L2 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 13.0 | W1 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 4.2 | L5 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 15.8 | W2 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 25.2 | L1 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 35.3 | W1 |
| UMA | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 11 | 11-0 | 1.000 | 50.7 | W11 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 32.2 | L2 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 20.6 | W2 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 8 | 3-5 | .375 | 27.4 | W2 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 33.2 | L3 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.0 | W3 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 36.2 | L4 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 17.4 | W2 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 31.8 | L3 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 13.7 | W2 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 35.6 | L3 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 13.5 | W3 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 32.3 | L1 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 22.5 | W2 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 26.3 | W1 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 26.5 | W1 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 26.0 | W1 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 49.0 | L1 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 12 | 12-0 | 1.000 | 3.8 | W12 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 12.6 | W5 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 22.0 | W1 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 33.0 | L1 |
| UMA | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 45.7 | L5 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
UMA OFFENSE
UMA's offense has averaged 129.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 82.3 rush yards per game. (+57%)
UMA's offense has averaged 14.8 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 32-game average is 31.1 points scored per game. (-52%)
UMA's offense has averaged 357.5 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 245.4 total yards per game. (+46%)
UMA's offense has averaged 228.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 163.1 pass yards per game. (+40%)
UMA's offense has averaged 4.9 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 3.6 YPC. (+36%)
UMA's offense has averaged 7.1 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 5.6 YPP. (+27%)
UMA's offense has averaged 9.6 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 7.6 YPA. (+27%)
UMA DEFENSE
UMA's defense has averaged 1.7 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 5.6 YPC. (-69%)
UMA's defense has averaged 56.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 146.2 rush yards per game. (-61%)
UMA's defense has averaged 8.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 32-game average is 18.0 points allowed per game. (-52%)
UMA's defense has averaged 3.3 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 6.7 YPA. (-50%)
UMA's defense has averaged 3.1 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 6.2 YPP. (-49%)
UMA's defense has averaged 143.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 261.3 total yards per game. (-45%)
UMA's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (-27%)
UMA's defense has averaged 86.5 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 115.1 pass yards per game. (-25%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| UMA | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 86.5 | 9 | 115.1 | -24.9% | |
| UMA | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 228.0 | 10 | 163.1 | +39.8% | |
| UMA | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 8.7 | 32 | 18.0 | -51.8% | |
| UMA | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 5 | 14.8 | 32 | 31.1 | -52.4% | |
| UMA | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 56.5 | 9 | 146.2 | -61.4% | |
| UMA | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 129.5 | 10 | 82.3 | +57.4% | |
| UMA | DEFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 143.0 | 9 | 261.3 | -45.3% | |
| UMA | OFFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 357.5 | 10 | 245.4 | +45.7% | |
| UMA | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.0 | 8 | 1.4 | -27.3% | |
| UMA | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 3.3 | 9 | 6.7 | -50.2% | |
| UMA | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 9.6 | 10 | 7.6 | +26.7% | |
| UMA | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 1.7 | 9 | 5.6 | -69.2% | |
| UMA | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 4.9 | 10 | 3.6 | +36.3% | |
| UMA | DEFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 3.1 | 9 | 6.2 | -49.4% | |
| UMA | OFFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 7.1 | 10 | 5.6 | +26.7% |
From the games on file through Oct 23.
