In short: Thousand Oaks Lancers high school football (Thousand Oaks, CA), 2026 season: 1-8 in the Channel League. Last game: L 7-41 vs Rio Mesa on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Santa Barbara, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Thousand Oaks meets Santa Barbara is Thousand Oaks' scoring defense. Thousand Oaks allowed 24.7 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #234 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (0-6), the Lancers have allowed 42.0 points per game, a 70% rise, #381 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Thousand Oaks' last 6 opponents have averaged 30.7 points per game, a #117 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 23.2 points per game, #226 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (30.7 points per game), Thousand Oaks allowed 37% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #70 in CIF-SS, well above the first 3 (#175), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Conversely, Santa Barbara's offense has been one of CIF-SS's better units in recent weeks. The Dons have averaged 33.2 points per game over their last 6 games (5-1), #94 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in CIF-SS (24.0 points per game on the season, which would rank #211). Against those norms, Santa Barbara scored 38% more than those defenses usually allow. Unless Thousand Oaks' defense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Santa Barbara. Thousand Oaks is 1-1 this season when it holds opponents under 27, and 0-7 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle could decide Thousand Oaks' next game, against Santa Barbara, and the recent returns favor Thousand Oaks. Thousand Oaks committed 2.4 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #366 in CIF-SS through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), the Lancers have committed 1.2 giveaways per game, a 48% drop, #176 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.4 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.5 per game), Thousand Oaks turned it over 15% less than those defenses usually force. Meanwhile, Santa Barbara's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Dons have forced 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #233 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better offenses in CIF-SS (0.9 per game on the season, which would rank #104). Against those norms, Santa Barbara forced 6% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #83 in CIF-SS, a strong slate. Santa Barbara offers Thousand Oaks a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Thousand Oaks' season has been the direction of its run defense. Thousand Oaks allowed 6.0 yards per carry (802 yards on 134 rushes) over its first 4 games (1-3), #244 in CIF-SS within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), the Lancers have allowed 7.7 yards per carry (974 yards on 127 rushes), a 28% rise, #319 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.0 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.0 yards per carry), Thousand Oaks allowed 28% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #86 in CIF-SS. On the season, Thousand Oaks ranks #295 in CIF-SS in run defense. Santa Barbara's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #167 in CIF-SS (5.8 yards per carry).
The Lancers averaged 2.9 yards per carry (311 yards on 107 rushes) over their first 5 games (1-4), #360 in CIF-SS during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), Thousand Oaks has averaged 3.5 yards per carry (303 yards on 86 rushes), a 21% rise, #313 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 4.8 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.8 yards per carry), Thousand Oaks ran for 26% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. On the season, the Lancers rank #358 in CIF-SS in rushing. That form gets a real test against Santa Barbara, whose run defense ranks #47 in CIF-SS (4.0 yards per carry).
Thousand Oaks' pass defense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. Thousand Oaks allowed 11.6 yards per pass attempt (859 yards on 74 attempts) over its first 4 games (1-3), #375 in CIF-SS during that stretch. In the 5 games since that slow start (0-5), the Lancers have allowed 9.6 yards per pass attempt (1,098 yards on 114 attempts), a 17% drop, #293 in CIF-SS over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Thousand Oaks' last 5 opponents have averaged 9.7 yards per attempt, a #74 passing attack in CIF-SS on the season, against 8.4 yards per attempt, #138 for the first 4. On the season, Thousand Oaks ranks #352 in CIF-SS in pass defense. That form gets a real test against Santa Barbara, whose passing game ranks #75 in CIF-SS (9.6 yards per attempt).
Something changed for Thousand Oaks' defense after its first 3 games. The Lancers allowed 7.7 yards per play (1,275 yards on 165 snaps) over their first 3 games (1-2), #298 in CIF-SS over that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (0-6), Thousand Oaks has allowed 8.7 yards per play (2,458 yards on 284 snaps), a 12% rise, #326 in CIF-SS over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.5 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.6 yards per play), Thousand Oaks allowed 15% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #70 in CIF-SS, well above the first 3 (#175), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Lancers rank #328 in CIF-SS in yards per play allowed. It won't get any easier against Santa Barbara, whose offense ranks #72 in CIF-SS (8.1 yards per play).
TIDBITS (7 found)
• Club Thousand Oaks has lost 7 straight, and a loss would make it 8 in a row. The last time they lost 8 or more in a row was 2017, a run of 25.
• Club Thousand Oaks has gone 11 straight games allowing 6.0+ yards per play (October 31, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 2-9 over that stretch, a school-record 11 straight in the 22 seasons on record.
• Club Thousand Oaks has gone 11 straight games forcing fewer than 2 turnovers (October 31, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 2-9 over that stretch, a school-record 11 straight in the 22 seasons on record.
• Club Thousand Oaks is 35-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (35 such games).
• Club Thousand Oaks has gone 11 straight games being held under 5.0 yards per carry (October 31, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 2-9 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2019 (15 games).
• Club Thousand Oaks has gone 11 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards (October 31, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 2-9 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2016 (12 games).
• Club Thousand Oaks has gone 7 straight games being held under 8.0 yards per attempt (September 4, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 0-7 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2021 (12 games).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Thousand Oaks has played a tougher-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#65 of 405), and what is left is one of the toughest slates (#36 of 383).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#65 of 405
avg opponent rating 16.3 over 9 games · 1 vs top-25 CIF-SS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#36 of 383
avg opponent rating 26.7 over 1 games · 0 vs top-25
Northview L 7-21@Hueneme W 27-20@Agoura L 0-33Newbury … L 0-50@Lancaster L 7-48Ventura L 19-27@Westlake L 10-42Moorpark L 0-44@Rio Mesa L 7-41Santa Ba…
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 23 game; last updated Oct 26; roster and numbers checked Oct 6.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 59.6/100 (+6 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 30.0/100 (-55 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 59.3/100 (-17 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 53.5/100 (-10 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (adjusted for the opponents faced).
TO finished 2025 at 8-3. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 38-13 over VENTURA (VENTURA finished 81% that season). Toughest loss: 34-50 to RIO HONDO PREP (16-point margin).
• THOUSAND OAKS has lost 7 straight (9/4/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 8 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• THOUSAND OAKS has been held under 14 in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• THOUSAND OAKS has lost by 20+ in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• THOUSAND OAKS has allowed 30+ in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
TO's defense has averaged 0.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 33-game average is 0.9 takeaways per game. (-79%)
TO's defense has averaged 9.0 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 5.6 YPC. (+61%)
TO's defense has averaged 42.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 27.3 points allowed per game. (+55%)
TO's defense has averaged 211.7 rush yards per game over their last 10 games. Their 33-game average is 140.4 rush yards per game. (+51%)
TO's defense has averaged 9.3 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 6.8 YPP. (+36%)
TO's defense has averaged 11.2 YPA over their last 7 games. Their 33-game average is 8.3 YPA. (+35%)
TO's defense has averaged 418.9 total yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 33-game average is 330.5 total yards per game. (+27%)
TO's defense has averaged 240.9 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 33-game average is 190.1 pass yards per game. (+27%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where THOUSAND OAKS sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 54.5, Defense Grade 64.8.
PASS YARDS ALLOWED / GAME: THOUSAND OAKS VS THE SECTION
THOUSAND OAKS ranks #338 of 356 section teams in passing yards allowed per game (214.8) -- a weakness worth a look.
THOUSAND OAKS: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 14.7 in 2022 to 4.3 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
