In short: Thatcher Eagles high school football (Thatcher, AZ), 2026 season: 7-2. Last game: W 37-13 vs Sabino on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Coolidge, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 7-2 this season |
| LAST GAME | W 37-13 vs SABINO |
| NEXT GAME | COOLIDGE (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 40.9 · Rush Off 94.2 · Pass Def 85.4 · Rush Def 87.0 |
| LEAGUE | 3A EAST |
| ENROLLMENT | 512 STUDENTS (2023-24) |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THATCHER | 40.9 (-33) | 94.2 (+156) | 85.4 (-61) | 87.0 (-87) |
Next: vs Coolidge, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Coolidge at Thatcher.
The battle on the ground could decide Thatcher's next game, against Coolidge, and the recent returns favor Thatcher. Thatcher averaged 6.5 yards per carry (1,070 yards on 164 rushes) over its first 5 games (3-2), #89 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (4-0), the Eagles have averaged 9.9 yards per carry (1,419 yards on 144 rushes), a 51% rise, #22 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Thatcher's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.5 yards per carry, a #141 run defense in section on the season, against 6.0 yards per carry, #116 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.5 yards per carry), Thatcher ran for 51% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #114 in section, well below the first 5 (#63), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Coolidge's run defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Bears have allowed 5.0 yards per carry (681 yards on 135 rushes) over their last 4 games (2-2), #75 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of rushing attacks in section (5.9 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #116). Against those norms, Coolidge held those rushing attacks 14% below their usual yards per carry. Something has to give when Thatcher's surging ground game meets one of section's better units in Coolidge's.
The number to watch when Thatcher meets Coolidge is Thatcher's yards per play. Thatcher averaged 6.7 yards per play (1,571 yards on 235 snaps) over its first 5 games (3-2), #120 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (4-0), the Eagles have averaged 9.4 yards per play (1,693 yards on 180 snaps), a 41% rise, #39 in section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.0 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.1 yards per play), Thatcher gained 32% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #114 in section, well below the first 5 (#63), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Coolidge's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Bears have allowed 6.1 yards per play (1,101 yards on 180 snaps) over their last 4 games (2-2), #90 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (6.6 yards per play on the season, which would rank #124). Against those norms, Coolidge held those offenses 8% below their usual yards per snap. Coolidge offers Thatcher a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
The biggest worry in Thatcher's season has been the direction of its pass defense. Thatcher allowed 5.3 yards per pass attempt (405 yards on 76 attempts) over its first 4 games (3-1), #36 in section within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Eagles have allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt (543 yards on 74 attempts), a 38% rise, #114 in section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 8.3 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.3 yards per attempt), Thatcher held those passing attacks 11% below their usual yards per attempt. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Thatcher ranks #55 in section in pass defense. It won't get any easier against Coolidge, whose passing game ranks #23 in section (11.0 yards per attempt).
Thatcher's offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Eagles averaged 26.0 points per game over their first 3 games (2-1), #123 in section during those games. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), Thatcher has averaged 37.0 points per game, a 42% rise, #49 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Thatcher's last 6 opponents have averaged 23.1 points per game, a #119 scoring defense in section on the season, against 26.0 points per game, #142 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.1 points per game), Thatcher scored 60% more than those defenses usually allow. On the season, the Eagles rank #75 in section in scoring. Coolidge's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #117 in section (22.8 points per game). Thatcher is 7-0 this season when it scores 23 or more, and 0-2 when it doesn't.
Something changed for Thatcher's defense after its first 4 games. Thatcher allowed 4.5 yards per play (815 yards on 181 snaps) over its first 4 games (3-1), #28 in section during that stretch. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Eagles have allowed 5.8 yards per play (1,037 yards on 179 snaps), a 29% rise, #75 in section over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.7 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.6 yards per play), Thatcher held those offenses 12% below their usual yards per snap. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Thatcher ranks #32 in section in yards per play allowed. It won't get any easier against Coolidge, whose offense ranks #36 in section (8.6 yards per play).
Thatcher's run defense has allowed more yards per carry as the season has worn on. The Eagles allowed 3.9 yards per carry (410 yards on 105 rushes) over their first 4 games (3-1), #41 in section over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), Thatcher has allowed 4.7 yards per carry (494 yards on 105 rushes), a 20% rise, #56 in section over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.7 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.5 yards per carry), Thatcher held those rushing attacks 15% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, the Eagles rank #41 in section in run defense. Coolidge's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #93 in section (6.4 yards per carry).
• Club Thatcher has won 4 straight, and a win would make it 5 in a row. The last time they won 5 or more in a row was 2025, a run of 7.
• Club Thatcher has gone 9 straight games being held under 200 passing yards (August 20, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 7-2 over that stretch, a school-record 9 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Thatcher has gone 9 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (August 20, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 7-2 over that stretch, a school-record 9 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Thatcher has gone 8 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 6-2 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Thatcher is 24-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (24 such games).
• Club Thatcher is 13-1 all time when averaging 5.0+ yards per carry. Thatcher's last loss when averaging 5.0+ yards per carry was September 15, 2023 against Yuma Catholic (L, 20-42).
• Club Thatcher is 13-1 all time when averaging 6.0+ yards per play. Thatcher's last loss when averaging 6.0+ yards per play was September 15, 2023 against Yuma Catholic (L, 20-42).
• Club Thatcher is 13-1 all time when holding the opponent under 8.0 yards per attempt. Thatcher's last loss when holding the opponent under 8.0 yards per attempt was September 20, 2024 against Yuma Catholic (L, 12-19).
• Player Holston Conrad has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Thatcher, over a 15-game career on record. His career high is 6, set October 31, 2025 against Coolidge (W, 42-14).
• Player Ethan Hayes has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Thatcher, over a 13-game career on record. His career high is 9, set September 4, 2026 against Benjamin Franklin (L, 0-38).
From the games on file through Sep 10.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Sep 10 game; last updated Sep 14; roster and numbers checked Oct 6.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| 12 | KASE PALMER | 4 | 22/38 | 57.9% | 272 | 7.2 | 2 | 2 | 124.9 |
| 24 | JOSH JONES | 4 | 1/1 | 100.0% | 23 | 23.0 | 0 | 0 | 293.2 |
| 3 | COLT DALEY | 1 | 1/1 | 100.0% | 9 | 9.0 | 1 | 0 | 505.6 |
| 10 | TUFDEN TAYLOR | 4 | 1/1 | 100.0% | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 167.2 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 25/41 | 61.0% | 312 | 7.6 | 3 | 2 | 139.3 | |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| 10 | TUFDEN TAYLOR | 4 | 25 | 322 | 12.9 | 4 |
| 24 | JOSH JONES | 4 | 29 | 207 | 7.1 | 3 |
| 12 | KASE PALMER | 4 | 27 | 99 | 3.7 | 2 |
| 0 | ETHAN HAYES | 4 | 17 | 96 | 5.6 | 3 |
| 21 | ZAYDEN GONZALES | 3 | 5 | 66 | 13.2 | 0 |
| 6 | JAX SHUPE | 4 | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 1 |
| 22 | WILLIE DUNKLIN | 3 | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| 16 | DAX CARTER | 2 | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| 20 | BRYCEN MURPHY | 2 | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| 65 | BROCK INNES | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| 3 | COLT DALEY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 130 | 922 | 7.1 | 14 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| 1 | HUDSON CONRAD | 4 | 8 | 108 | 13.5 | 1 |
| 30 | TEAGAN DAMRON | 4 | 9 | 106 | 11.8 | 1 |
| 9 | RYZER JACQUES | 4 | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 0 |
| 5 | BRIG ROMNEY | 4 | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| 10 | TUFDEN TAYLOR | 4 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| 24 | JOSH JONES | 4 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| 20 | BRYCEN MURPHY | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 1 |
| 6 | JAX SHUPE | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| 21 | ZAYDEN GONZALES | 3 | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 28 | 317 | 11.3 | 3 | |
| DEFENSE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | TCKL | TFL | SACKS | INT | INT YDS | PD | FF |
| 0 | ETHAN HAYES | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | TUFDEN TAYLOR | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| 1 | HUDSON CONRAD | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | RYZER JACQUES | 4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | KASE PALMER | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 67 | KAESEN ESTES | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | JOSH JONES | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 | TEAGAN DAMRON | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | WILLIE DUNKLIN | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 65 | BROCK INNES | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | BRIG ROMNEY | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 77 | JOSHUA NICHOLAS | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | COLT DALEY | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 55 | GRADY LEHMANN | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | JAX SHUPE | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 54 | CLANCY MULLENAUX | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | RITTER SMOUSE | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | CALEB HOISINGTON | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | DAX CARTER | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | HUNTER BURKETT | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | JACOB ORTIZ | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | KAYSON RICHINS | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | BRYCE RINEY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | BRYCEN MURPHY | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | GABRIEL DIXSON | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | ISAAC UDALL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | JAYLEON WAY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 57 | MARCUS NAVERETTE | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 | RAFE ALLRED | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 52 | VINCENT BEJARANO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 81 | ZAREK HALES | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | ZAYDEN GONZALES | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | JACOB SCOTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 139 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 0 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 13-1 | 575 | 204 | 41.1 |
| 2023 | 7-5 | 298 | 212 | 24.8 |
| 2024 | 10-3 | 401 | 172 | 30.8 |
| 2025 | 9-2 | 367 | 133 | 33.4 |
| 2026 | 7-2 | 300 | 140 | 33.3 |
| 2022-26 | 46-13 | 32.9 |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/20 | ALA - IRONWOOD | at | W | 33-6 | |
| 08/28 | APACHE JUNCTION | vs | W | 45-0 | |
| 09/04 | BENJAMIN FRANKLIN | vs | L | 0-38 | |
| 09/10 | FLORENCE | vs | W | 49-14 | |
| 09/25 | PUSCH RIDGE CHRISTIAN ACADEMY | at | L | 21-28 | |
| 10/01 | SAFFORD | at | W | 42-7 | |
| 10/08 | SAN TAN FOOTHILLS | vs | W | 44-7 | |
| 10/16 | PAYSON | at | W | 29-27 | |
| 10/23 | SABINO | at | W | 37-13 | |
| 10/30 | COOLIDGE | vs | PROJ | 34-16 | 81.4% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 7-2 | 1 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 7-2 so far | 8-2 (81%) | 7.8-2.2 |
| League | 4-1 so far | 4-1 (100%) | 4.0-1.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 9 | 33.3 | 15.6 | 362.7 | 231.5 | 46.1 | 45.0 |
| HOME | 4 | 34.5 | 14.8 | 305.0 | 208.7 | 40.0 | 39.0 |
| ROAD | 5 | 32.4 | 16.2 | 408.8 | 245.2 | 51.0 | 48.6 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/20 | @ ALA - Ironwood | W 33-6 | 97 | 282 | 379 | 40 | 149 | 189 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 8/28 | vs. Apache Junction | W 45-0 | 31 | 255 | 286 | 29 | 16 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
| 9/4 | vs. Benjamin Franklin | L 0-38 | 68 | 102 | 170 | 252 | 118 | 370 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 9/10 | vs. Florence | W 49-14 | 116 | 283 | 399 | 84 | 127 | 211 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
| 9/25 | @ PRCA | L 21-28 | 189 | 148 | 337 | 152 | 155 | 307 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | 0 |
| 10/1 | @ Safford | W 42-7 | 79 | 426 | 505 | 79 | 64 | 143 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | -1 |
| 10/8 | vs. San Tan Foothills | W 44-7 | 62 | 303 | 365 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1 | +1 |
| 10/16 | @ Payson | W 29-27 | 70 | 345 | 415 | 164 | 122 | 286 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -1 |
| 10/23 | @ Sabino | W 37-13 | 63 | 345 | 408 | 148 | 153 | 301 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | 0 |
| AVERAGES | 86.1 | 276.6 | 362.7 | 118.5 | 113.0 | 231.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 8/9, sacks/INT 4/9, sacks allowed 4/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 40.9/100 (-33 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 94.2/100 (+156 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 85.4/100 (-61 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 87.0/100 (-87 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | vs | COOLIDGE | 5-4 | 35.0 |
LAST YEAR
THA finished 2025 at 9-2. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 28-14 over PUSCH RIDGE CHRISTIAN ACADEMY (PUSCH RIDGE CHRISTIAN ACADEMY finished 77% that season). Toughest loss: 6-14 to FLORENCE (8-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-22 | ALA - IRONWOOD | W | 1-0 | 41 | 29 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-08-28 | APACHE JUNCTION | W | 2-0 | 47 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-05 | BENJAMIN FRANKLIN | L | 2-1 | 12 | 27 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-12 | FLORENCE | W | 3-1 | 21 | 18 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-26 | PUSCH RIDGE CHRISTIAN ACADEMY | W | 4-1 | 28 | 14 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-03 | SAFFORD | W | 5-1 | 49 | 7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-10 | SAN TAN FOOTHILLS | W | 6-1 | 61 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | PAYSON | W | 7-1 | 20 | 10 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-23 | SABINO | W | 8-1 | 40 | 0 | 372 | 198 |
| 2025-10-31 | COOLIDGE | W | 9-1 | 42 | 14 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | FLORENCE | L | 9-2 | 6 | 14 | N/A | N/A |
| TOTALS | 11 GMS | 9-2 | 9-2 | 367 | 133 | 372 (1) | 198 (1) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• THA averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.999), and has won 9 straight when doing so
• THA averages 6.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 9 straight when doing so
• THA forces 1+ takeaways (.900), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• THA holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.889), and has won 6 straight when doing so
• THA's offense has failed to reach 200 pass yds in 9 straight games (08/20/2026-10/23/2026), going 7-2 over that stretch.
• THA's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 9 straight games (08/20/2026-10/23/2026), going 7-2 over that stretch.
• THA's defense has averaged 6.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 4.0 YPC. (+66%)
• THA's defense has averaged 7.7 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 5.0 YPP. (+52%)
• THA's defense has averaged 137.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 91.2 rush yards per game. (+51%)
• THA's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 14-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (-47%)
• THA's offense has averaged 331.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 24-game average is 231.9 rush yards per game. (+43%)
• THA's defense has averaged 19.1 points allowed per game over their last 7 games. Their 33-game average is 13.5 points allowed per game. (+42%)
• THA's defense has averaged 9.1 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 6.4 YPA. (+42%)
• THA averages 6.8+ yards per attempt (THA's own median) (.999)
• THA's offense has exceeded 150 rush yds in 4 straight games (10/01/2026-10/23/2026), going 4-0 over that stretch.
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
THA -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 19 scored; vs 209 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | YPP 7+ | 8-0 | 1.000 | 40.6 | W8 | 0.881 |
| 2 | OFF | YPC 5+ | 9-0 | 1.000 | 39.3 | W9 | 0.870 |
| 3 | OFF | YPP 6+ | 9-0 | 1.000 | 39.3 | W9 | 0.860 |
| 4 | OFF | Rush Yds 150+ | 17-1 | .944 | 37.4 | W13 | 0.761 |
| 5 | DEF | Turnovers 1+ | 9-1 | .900 | 9.3 | W7 | 0.754 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- THA ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| THA rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 18-4 | .818 | 31.8 | W4 |
| THA averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 9-0 | .999 | 39.3 | W9 |
| THA averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 9-0 | .999 | 39.3 | W9 |
| THA holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards | 8-1 | .889 | 11.1 | W6 |
| THA holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards | 7-2 | .778 | 10.6 | W5 |
| THA rushes for 150+ yards but stays under 8.0 yards per attempt | 7-1 | .875 | 32.8 | W5 |
| THA holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry | 7-1 | .875 | 9.1 | W5 |
| THA holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play and under 100 rushing yards | 5-1 | .833 | 8.8 | W3 |
| THA rushes for 150+ yards but commits 2+ giveaways | 4-1 | .800 | 27.8 | W3 |
| THA averages 6.0+ yards per play while committing zero giveaways | 4-0 | .999 | 43.2 | W4 |
| THA holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards while forcing 2+ takeaways | 3-1 | .750 | 6.2 | W2 |
| THA holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play while forcing 2+ takeaways | 3-1 | .750 | 6.2 | W2 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| THA | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 18-4 | .818 | 31.8 |
| THA | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 9-0 | .999 | 39.3 |
| THA | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 9-0 | .999 | 39.3 |
| THA | Rush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 200 | 8-1 | .889 | 11.1 |
| THA | YPC < 5.0 & Rush Yds < 150 | 7-2 | .778 | 10.6 |
| THA | Rush Yds 150+ & YPA < 8.0 | 7-1 | .875 | 32.8 |
| THA | YPA < 8.0 & YPC < 5.0 | 7-1 | .875 | 9.1 |
| THA | YPP < 6.0 & Rush Yds < 100 | 5-1 | .833 | 8.8 |
| THA | Rush Yds 150+ & Turnovers 2+ | 4-1 | .800 | 27.8 |
| THA | YPP 6.0+ & Turnovers < 1 | 4-0 | .999 | 43.2 |
| THA | Rush Yds < 150 & Turnovers 2+ | 3-1 | .750 | 6.2 |
| THA | YPP < 6.0 & Turnovers 2+ | 3-1 | .750 | 6.2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 39.7 | W3 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 7-4 | .636 | 26.4 | W2 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 41.5 | W2 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 18-4 | .818 | 31.8 | W4 | 9 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 20-4 | .833 | 32.6 | W4 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 17-1 | .944 | 37.4 | W13 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-3 | .500 | 18.3 | L2 | 9 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 9-0 | 1.000 | 39.3 | W9 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 11.0 | L4 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 9-0 | 1.000 | 39.3 | W9 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 11.0 | L4 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 8-0 | 1.000 | 40.6 | W8 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-4 | .333 | 14.0 | W1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 6-2 | .750 | 26.0 | W3 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 4-2 | .667 | 33.5 | W1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 4-1 | .800 | 27.8 | W3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 22.5 | W1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-3 | .000 | 4.3 |
| Scores 10-19 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 5-2 | .714 | 24.1 |
| Scores 30-39 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 34.3 |
| Scores 40+ | 14-0 | 1.000 | 45.8 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 39.7 | W3 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 30.2 | W2 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 7-2 | .778 | 33.3 | W4 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 7-2 | .778 | 33.3 | W4 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 7-0 | 1.000 | 39.9 | W7 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-2 | .000 | 10.5 | L2 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 7-0 | 1.000 | 39.9 | W7 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 10.5 | L2 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 7-0 | 1.000 | 39.9 | W7 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 10.5 | L2 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 6-0 | 1.000 | 41.7 | W6 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 16.7 | W1 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-1 | .800 | 28.2 | W3 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 39.8 | W1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 37.3 | W3 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 33.0 | W1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 20-29 | 1-1 | .500 | 25.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 35.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 45.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 28.8 | W1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 8-1 | .889 | 9.6 | W6 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-2 | .000 | 30.0 | L2 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 9-2 | .818 | 12.8 | W3 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-2 | .667 | 21.0 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 5-2 | .714 | 10.7 | W3 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 8-3 | .727 | 14.5 | W3 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-2 | .500 | 26.5 | W2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 7-2 | .778 | 10.6 | W5 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-3 | .400 | 25.6 | W2 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 7-1 | .875 | 9.1 | W5 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 32.5 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 8-3 | .727 | 12.4 | W2 | 20 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 9-1 | .900 | 9.3 | W7 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-3 | .250 | 28.8 | W1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 4-1 | .800 | 7.6 | W3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 3-1 | .750 | 6.2 | W2 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 13-0 | 1.000 | 3.2 |
| Allows 10-19 | 10-2 | .833 | 14.2 |
| Allows 20-29 | 3-3 | .500 | 26.7 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-2 | .000 | 36.0 |
| Allows 40+ | -- | -- | -- |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 31.0 | W1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W5 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-1 | .000 | 38.0 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 6-1 | .857 | 13.6 | W3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-2 | .667 | 21.0 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 3.5 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 5-1 | .833 | 15.3 | W3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-2 | .500 | 26.5 | W2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 6.8 | W4 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-2 | .500 | 26.5 | W2 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 6.8 | W4 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 32.5 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 5-1 | .833 | 11.3 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 6-0 | 1.000 | 7.8 | W6 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-2 | .333 | 31.0 | W1 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 9.5 | W2 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 6.0 | W1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 5.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 13.5 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-1 | .500 | 27.5 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-1 | .000 | 38.0 |
| Allows 40+ | -- | -- | -- |
THATCHER
• THATCHER has gained 400+ total yards in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• THATCHER has been held under 100 passing in 4 straight games (10/1/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• THATCHER has rushed for 200+ in 4 straight games (10/1/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• THATCHER has won 4 straight (10/1/26–10/23/26). It has not won 5 straight since 9/12/25–10/31/25 (2025).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| THA | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 39.7 | W3 |
| THA | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 11 | 7-4 | .636 | 26.4 | W2 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 41.5 | W2 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 22 | 18-4 | .818 | 31.8 | W4 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 24 | 20-4 | .833 | 32.6 | W4 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 18 | 17-1 | .944 | 37.4 | W13 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 18.3 | L2 |
| THA | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 9 | 9-0 | 1.000 | 39.3 | W9 |
| THA | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 11.0 | L4 |
| THA | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 9 | 9-0 | 1.000 | 39.3 | W9 |
| THA | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 11.0 | L4 |
| THA | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 8 | 8-0 | 1.000 | 40.6 | W8 |
| THA | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 14.0 | W1 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 26.0 | W3 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 33.5 | W1 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 27.8 | W3 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 22.5 | W1 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 4.3 | L3 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.0 | L2 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 24.1 | W1 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 6 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 34.3 | W6 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 14 | 14-0 | 1.000 | 45.8 | W14 |
| THA | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 28.8 | W1 |
| THA | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 9 | 8-1 | .889 | 9.6 | W6 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 30.0 | L2 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 11 | 9-2 | .818 | 12.8 | W3 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 21.0 | W2 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 10.7 | W3 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | W1 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 11 | 8-3 | .727 | 14.5 | W3 |
| THA | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 26.5 | W2 |
| THA | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 9 | 7-2 | .778 | 10.6 | W5 |
| THA | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 25.6 | W2 |
| THA | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 8 | 7-1 | .875 | 9.1 | W5 |
| THA | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 32.5 | W1 |
| THA | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 11 | 8-3 | .727 | 12.4 | W2 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 10 | 9-1 | .900 | 9.3 | W7 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 28.8 | W1 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 7.6 | W3 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 6.2 | W2 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 13 | 13-0 | 1.000 | 3.2 | W13 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 12 | 10-2 | .833 | 14.2 | W2 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 26.7 | W1 |
| THA | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 36.0 | L2 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 9 games | 08/20/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 7-2 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 9 games | 08/20/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 7-2 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 4 games | 10/01/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 4-0 |
| OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 games | 10/01/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 4-0 |
| OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 games | 10/01/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 4-0 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| THA | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 9 games | 08/20/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 7-2 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 9 games | 08/20/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 7-2 |
| THA | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 4 games | 10/01/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 4-0 |
| THA | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 games | 10/01/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 4-0 |
| THA | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 games | 10/01/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 4-0 |
THA OFFENSE
THA's offense has averaged 331.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 24-game average is 231.9 rush yards per game. (+43%)
THA's offense has averaged 65.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 24-game average is 100.9 pass yards per game. (-36%)
THA's offense has averaged 0.9 giveaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 14-game average is 1.2 giveaways per game. (-29%)
THA's offense has averaged 8.4 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 14-game average is 6.7 YPA. (+26%)
THA's offense has averaged 9.0 YPP over their last 5 games. Their 14-game average is 7.3 YPP. (+23%)
THA's offense has averaged 406.0 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 24-game average is 332.8 total yards per game. (+22%)
THA's offense has averaged 9.1 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 14-game average is 7.5 YPC. (+21%)
THA DEFENSE
THA's defense has averaged 6.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 4.0 YPC. (+66%)
THA's defense has averaged 7.7 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 5.0 YPP. (+52%)
THA's defense has averaged 137.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 91.2 rush yards per game. (+51%)
THA's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 14-game average is 1.4 takeaways per game. (-47%)
THA's defense has averaged 19.1 points allowed per game over their last 7 games. Their 33-game average is 13.5 points allowed per game. (+42%)
THA's defense has averaged 9.1 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 6.4 YPA. (+42%)
THA's defense has averaged 293.5 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 13-game average is 225.7 total yards per game. (+30%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| THA | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 65.0 | 24 | 100.9 | -35.6% | |
| THA | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 7 | 19.1 | 33 | 13.5 | +42.0% | |
| THA | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 137.5 | 13 | 91.2 | +50.8% | |
| THA | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 331.0 | 24 | 231.9 | +42.7% | |
| THA | DEFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 293.5 | 13 | 225.7 | +30.0% | |
| THA | OFFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 5 | 406.0 | 24 | 332.8 | +22.0% | |
| THA | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 7 | 0.7 | 14 | 1.4 | -47.4% | |
| THA | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 7 | 0.9 | 14 | 1.2 | -29.4% | |
| THA | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 9.1 | 13 | 6.4 | +41.6% | |
| THA | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 5 | 8.4 | 14 | 6.7 | +26.2% | |
| THA | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 6.6 | 13 | 4.0 | +66.4% | |
| THA | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 5 | 9.1 | 14 | 7.5 | +21.3% | |
| THA | DEFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 7.7 | 13 | 5.0 | +52.4% | |
| THA | OFFENSE | team | YPP | last 5 | 9.0 | 14 | 7.3 | +23.2% |
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 29.2 in 2022 to 23.6 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
