In short: Thacher Toads high school football (Ojai, CA), 2026 season: 4-2 in the Tri-Valley (8 Man) League. Last game: L 34-51 vs Sage Hill on October 23, 2026. Next: at CATE, October 31, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Thacher meets CATE is Thacher's scoring defense. Thacher allowed 8.0 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #27 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 3 games since that hot start (1-2), the Toads have allowed 35.3 points per game, a 342% rise, #317 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Thacher's last 3 opponents have averaged 36.1 points per game, a #60 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 19.5 points per game, #288 for the first 3. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #142 in CIF-SS, well above the first 3 (#278), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, CATE's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Rams have averaged 12.3 points per game over their last 3 games (0-3), #327 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in CIF-SS (21.7 points per game on the season, which would rank #171). Against those norms, CATE scored 43% less than those defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Thacher is 4-0 this season when it holds opponents under 23, and 0-2 when it doesn't.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Thacher's season has been the direction of its offense. Thacher averaged 39.7 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #39 in CIF-SS through those games. In the 3 games since that hot start (1-2), the Toads have averaged 31.7 points per game, a 20% drop, #126 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Thacher's last 3 opponents have averaged 19.2 points per game, a #134 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 30.7 points per game, #315 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (19.2 points per game), Thacher scored 65% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #142 in CIF-SS, well above the first 3 (#278), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Thacher ranks #62 in CIF-SS in scoring. CATE's defense, #304 of 404 (30.0 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Thacher needs. Thacher is 3-1 this season when it scores 30 or more, and 1-1 when it doesn't.
TIDBITS (1 found)
• Club Thacher's 4-2 start is its first through 6 games in 6 seasons on record.
DATA WARNING: THACHER OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME @ SAGE HILL* MISSING
DATA WARNING: THACHER OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/17/2026 GAME VS. POLYTECHNIC* MISSING
DATA WARNING: THACHER OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/10/2026 GAME @ CHADWICK* MISSING
DATA WARNING: THACHER OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/03/2026 GAME VS. FLINTRIDGE PREP* MISSING
DATA WARNING: THACHER OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/26/2026 GAME VS. ORCUTT ACADEMY MISSING
DATA WARNING: THACHER OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/12/2026 GAME VS. HILLCREST CHRISTIAN MISSING
All stat areas in this report are subject to change as box scores are updated.
PROGRAM SNAPSHOT: THA
PROGRAM RECORD
SEASON
RECORD
PF
PA
PPG
2009
1-0
72
26
72.0
2013
2-0
102
34
51.0
2021
1-1
78
49
39.0
2024
3-0
88
49
29.3
2025
3-0
132
60
44.0
2026
4-2
214
130
35.7
2009-26
14-3
40.4
TEAM HISTORY
2 CIF-SS runner-up finishes · 2 CIF-SS Players of the Year
YEAR
HONOR
2019
CIF-SS Offensive Player of the Year (Division 14): JACKSON HOLLINS
2014
CIF-SS 8-Man Division 1 RUNNER-UP (lost to Mojave 21-20)
CIF-SS Offensive Player of the Year (8-Man D I): LUKAS CESENA
2012
CIF-SS 8 Man Division 1 RUNNER-UP (lost to Excelsior Charter 69-26)
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes: no league schedule on file yet, so none is claimed.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 0/6, defense 2/6, sacks/INT 0/6, sacks allowed 2/6, turnovers 2/6 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 46.6/100 (-22 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 98.1/100 (+223 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 62.8/100 (-22 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 40.6/100 (+15 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (2 storylines)
• THA's defense has averaged 35.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 19.9 points allowed per game. (+77%)
• THA is 3-0 (.999) in games decided by 8 points or fewer
THA's defense has averaged 35.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 19.9 points allowed per game. (+77%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where THACHER (OJAI) sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 80.8, Defense Grade 48.2.
POINTS ALLOWED / GAME: THACHER (OJAI) VS THE SECTION
THACHER (OJAI) ranks #1 of 399 section teams in points allowed per game (0.0) -- a strength worth a look.
THACHER (OJAI): SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 3 seasons on file -- 23.2 in 2024 to 14.5 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK
Lost to Sage Hill 34-51 on Oct 23; now 4-2.
From the games on file through Oct 23.
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Most likely finish 5-2 · realistic range 4-3 to 5-2
Remaining schedule: 239th hardest of 384 in the CIF-Southern Section (average opponent strength 0.3).
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
