In short: Sprague Olympians high school football (Salem, OR), 2026 season: 4-4. Last game: L 14-49 vs Nelson on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Mcnary, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 4-4 this season |
| LAST GAME | L 14-49 vs NELSON |
| NEXT GAME | MCNARY (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 72.3 · Rush Off 74.0 · Pass Def 66.7 · Rush Def 70.5 |
| ENROLLMENT | 1,765 STUDENTS (2023-24) · PUBLIC |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPRAGUE | 72.3 (+35) | 74.0 (+48) | 66.7 (-28) | 70.5 (-44) |
Next: vs Mcnary, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Mcnary at Sprague.
The turnover battle could decide Sprague's next game, against Mcnary, and the recent returns favor Sprague. Sprague forced 1.0 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #29 in section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Olympians have forced 2.2 takeaways per game, a 125% rise, #9 in section in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.3 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.3 per game), Sprague forced 71% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #27 in section, well below the first 4 (#13), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Mcnary's ball security has struggled in recent weeks. The Celtics have committed 2.0 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (0-4), #46 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker defenses in section (0.7 per game on the season, which would rank #52). Against those norms, Mcnary turned it over 193% more than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #57 in section, a lower level of competition. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Sprague.
The number to watch when Sprague meets Mcnary is Sprague's scoring. Sprague averaged 20.5 points per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #46 in section through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Olympians have averaged 35.8 points per game, a 74% rise, #11 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Sprague's last 4 opponents have averaged 25.6 points per game, a #33 scoring defense in section on the season, against 21.9 points per game, #22 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (25.6 points per game), Sprague scored 40% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #27 in section, well below the first 4 (#13), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Mcnary's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Celtics have allowed 24.5 points per game over their last 4 games (0-4), #29 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (26.0 points per game on the season, which would rank #34). Against those norms, Mcnary held those offenses 6% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #57 in section, a lower level of competition. Mcnary offers Sprague a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Sprague is 4-1 this season when it scores 19 or more, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
Sprague's passing game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Sprague averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt (1,327 yards on 142 attempts) on the season, #12 in section, but that number is boosted by a 302-yard game on 15 attempts against south salem-salem-or on 10/16. In all other games, Sprague is at 8.1 yards per pass attempt (1,025 yards on 127 attempts), a figure that would rank #21 in section. Mcnary's pass defense (9.6 yards per attempt, #46 of 61) gives Sprague a real chance to look like the season line again.
The biggest shift in Sprague's season has come in its ball security. The Olympians committed 2.5 giveaways per game over their first 4 games (1-3), #51 in section within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), Sprague has committed 0.8 giveaways per game, a 70% drop, #23 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Sprague's last 4 opponents have averaged 0.8 per game, a #45 defense in section on the season, against 1.1 per game, #34 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (0.8 per game), Sprague turned it over 10% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #27 in section, well below the first 4 (#13), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Olympians rank #40 in section in giveaways. Mcnary's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #44 in section (0.9 per game).
Sprague allowed 35.5 points per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #55 in section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Olympians have allowed 20.8 points per game, a 42% drop, #25 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Sprague's last 4 opponents have averaged 31.8 points per game, a #19 offense in section on the season, against 28.0 points per game, #29 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (31.8 points per game), Sprague held those offenses 35% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #27 in section, well below the first 4 (#13), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only ScorePirate OR section #5 Nelson broke through in that span, putting up 49 on 10/23. On the season, Sprague ranks #38 in section in scoring defense. The trend lines up well against Mcnary, whose offense ranks just #60 of 63 (11.2 points per game).
Sprague's offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Olympians averaged 6.7 yards per play (1,321 yards on 197 snaps) over their first 4 games (1-3), #15 in section during that stretch. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), Sprague has averaged 8.4 yards per play (1,488 yards on 177 snaps), a 25% rise, #7 in section over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.4 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.3 yards per play), Sprague gained 15% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #27 in section, well below the first 4 (#13), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Olympians rank #12 in section in yards per play. Mcnary's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #39 in section (6.9 yards per play).
Something changed for Sprague's ground game after its first 4 games. Sprague averaged 5.8 yards per carry (735 yards on 126 rushes) over its first 4 games (1-3), #12 in section over that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Olympians have averaged 7.0 yards per carry (747 yards on 106 rushes), a 21% rise, #9 in section over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Sprague's last 4 opponents have averaged 5.2 yards per carry, a #26 run defense in section on the season, against 5.8 yards per carry, #38 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.2 yards per carry), Sprague ran for 35% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #27 in section, well below the first 4 (#13), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Sprague ranks #14 in section in rushing. Mcnary's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #16 in section (4.9 yards per carry).
• Club Sprague has gone 5 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (September 25, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 3-2 over that stretch, a school-record 5 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Sprague has gone 5 straight games averaging 5.0+ yards per carry (September 25, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 3-2 over that stretch, a school-record 5 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Sprague has allowed 173 points over its last 6 games (28.8 a game, September 18, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its 5th-highest 6-game total on record; the most is 195, from October 10, 2024 through September 5, 2025.
Sprague has played a tougher-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#13 of 63), and what is left is one of the softest slates (#28 of 28): the hard part is behind it.
From the games on file through Sep 11.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Sep 11 game; last updated Sep 13.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| E. WYLAM | 2 | 15/30 | 50.0% | 351 | 11.7 | 3 | 2 | 167.9 | |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| P. HERB | 2 | 39 | 341 | 8.7 | 3 | |
| J. LUTZ | 2 | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 1 | |
| M. HYER | 2 | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 | |
| E. WYLAM | 2 | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 1 | |
| C. NGUYEN | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | |
| G. FLYNN | 2 | 4 | 13 | 3.2 | 1 | |
| M. LLOYD | 1 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 2 | 72 | 475 | 6.6 | 6 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| C. NGUYEN | 2 | 11 | 204 | 18.5 | 1 | |
| M. STERLING | 1 | 5 | 166 | 33.2 | 1 | |
| M. ALLIFUA | 2 | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 1 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 2 | 17 | 395 | 23.2 | 3 | |
| DEFENSE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | TCKL | TFL | SACKS | INT | INT YDS | PD | FF |
| G. FLYNN | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| E. HUNSAKER | 2 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| J. LUTZ | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| I. FOLKERT | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| A. CHAVEZ | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| M. HYER | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| M. ALLIFUA | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| A. TOKSTAD | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| C. NGUYEN | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| A. MCVEY | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| G. PLOWHEAD | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| M. ABALLAY | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| C. BUCHHEIT | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| M. KNAPP | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| M. STERLING | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| C. SORENSEN | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| M. SHAKUR | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| F. LARSON | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| M. BENZINGER | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| C. LYDON, JR. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D. MAKARENKO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| K. BROWN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| T. BOHNSTEDT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| U. SIFUENTES | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Z. HUBER | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 2 | 172 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 1-0 | 26 | 19 | 26.0 |
| 2023 | 0-1 | 28 | 47 | 28.0 |
| 2024 | 8-2 | 366 | 214 | 36.6 |
| 2025 | 4-5 | 213 | 215 | 23.7 |
| 2026 | 4-4 | 225 | 225 | 28.1 |
| 2022-26 | 17-12 | 29.6 |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 09/04 | VS. CALDERA | vs | W | 47-21 | |
| 09/11 | JESUIT | at | L | 21-31 | |
| 09/18 | @ GRANTS PASS | at | L | 0-35 | |
| 09/25 | SHELDON | vs | L | 14-55 | |
| 10/02 | @ WEST SALEM* | at | W | 31-14 | |
| 10/08 | NORTH SALEM | vs | W | 42-14 | |
| 10/16 | @ SOUTH SALEM* | at | W | 56-6 | |
| 10/23 | NELSON | at | L | 14-49 | |
| 10/30 | MCNARY | vs | PROJ | 44-0 | 98.9% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 4-4 | 1 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 4-4 so far | 5-4 (99%) | 5.0-4.0 |
| League | 3-0 so far | 3-0 (100%) | 3.0-0.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 8 | 28.1 | 28.1 | 351.1 | 291.0 | 46.8 | 41.2 |
| HOME | 3 | 34.3 | 30.0 | 353.7 | 322.0 | 41.3 | 46.5 |
| ROAD | 5 | 24.4 | 27.0 | 349.6 | 260.0 | 50.0 | 36.0 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 9/4 | vs. Caldera | W 47-21 | 266 | 180 | 446 | 32 | 281 | 313 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
| 9/11 | @ Jesuit | L 21-31 | 101 | 296 | 397 | 287 | -34 | 253 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| 9/18 | @ Grants Pass | L 0-35 | 111 | 85 | 196 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 2 | -2 |
| 9/25 | vs. Sheldon | L 14-55 | 108 | 174 | 282 | 139 | 192 | 331 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -4 |
| 10/2 | @ West Salem | W 31-14 | 100 | 220 | 320 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 4 | +4 |
| 10/8 | vs. North Salem | W 42-14 | 182 | 151 | 333 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 4 | +4 |
| 10/16 | @ South Salem | W 56-6 | 302 | 214 | 516 | 216 | 51 | 267 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | -1 |
| 10/23 | @ Nelson | L 14-49 | 157 | 162 | 319 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -1 |
| AVERAGES | 165.9 | 185.2 | 351.1 | 168.5 | 122.5 | 291.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 4/8, sacks/INT 2/8, sacks allowed 2/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 72.3/100 (+35 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 74.0/100 (+48 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 66.7/100 (-28 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 70.5/100 (-44 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | vs | MCNARY | 2-6 | 11.2 |
LAST YEAR
SPR finished 2025 at 4-5. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 21-7 over NORTH SALEM (NORTH SALEM finished 50% that season). Toughest loss: 7-13 to SOUTH MEDFORD (6-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | @ SUMMIT | L | 0-1 | 26 | 36 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-05 | VS. WEST SALEM* | L | 0-2 | 16 | 26 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-12 | @ NORTH MEDFORD* | W | 1-2 | 55 | 21 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-19 | WILLAMETTE | L | 1-3 | 26 | 42 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-26 | NORTH SALEM | W | 2-3 | 21 | 7 | 281 | N/A |
| 2025-10-03 | VS. SOUTH SALEM* | W | 3-3 | 34 | 21 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-10 | SOUTH MEDFORD | L | 3-4 | 7 | 13 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-31 | SHELDON | W | 4-4 | 14 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | LAKE OSWEGO | L | 4-5 | 14 | 49 | N/A | N/A |
| TOTALS | 9 GMS | 4-5 | 4-5 | 213 | 215 | 281 (1) | N/A |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• SPR commits zero giveaways (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• SPR averages 8.0+ yards per attempt (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• SPR averages 7.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• SPR forces 3+ takeaways (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• SPR's defense has averaged 5.7 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 5-game average is 3.5 YPC. (+60%)
• SPR averages 6.6+ yards per attempt (SPR's own median) (.999)
• SPR averages 6.8+ yards per play (SPR's own median) (.999)
• SPR is 3-0 (.999) when it wins the turnover battle
• SPR's defense has averaged 51.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 5-game average is 109.0 rush yards per game. (-53%)
• SPR's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 5 straight games (09/25/2026-10/23/2026), going 3-2 over that stretch.
• SPR's offense has exceeded 150 rush yds in 5 straight games (09/25/2026-10/23/2026), going 3-2 over that stretch.
• SPR's offense has exceeded 5.0 YPC in 5 straight games (09/25/2026-10/23/2026), going 3-2 over that stretch.
• SPR's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.6 giveaways per game. (-38%)
• SPR's offense has averaged 213.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 157.2 pass yards per game. (+36%)
• SPR's defense has averaged 216.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 5-game average is 167.0 pass yards per game. (+29%)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
SPR -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 3 of 3 scored; vs 886 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 6-3 | .667 | 33.7 | L1 | 0.630 |
| 2 | OFF | Rush Yds 150+ | 6-3 | .667 | 33.7 | L1 | 0.533 |
| 3 | OFF | YPC 5+ | 5-3 | .625 | 35.2 | L1 | 0.370 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- SPR ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| SPR averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 5-3 | .625 | 35.2 | L1 |
| SPR averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 5-2 | .714 | 38.3 | L1 |
| SPR rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 3-3 | .500 | 23.8 | L1 |
| SPR rushes for 150+ yards but stays under 8.0 yards per attempt | 2-3 | .400 | 20.2 | L1 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| SPR | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 5-3 | .625 | 35.2 |
| SPR | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 5-2 | .714 | 38.3 |
| SPR | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 3-3 | .500 | 23.8 |
| SPR | Rush Yds 150+ & YPA < 8.0 | 2-3 | .400 | 20.2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 50.5 | W4 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-4 | .333 | 16.8 | L1 | 17 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 53.3 | W3 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-4 | .429 | 20.4 | L1 | 17 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 6-3 | .667 | 33.7 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 | 17 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 6-3 | .667 | 33.7 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 | 17 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 5-3 | .625 | 35.2 | L1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 10.5 | L1 | 17 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 5-2 | .714 | 38.3 | L1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 11.7 | L2 | 17 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 50.5 | W4 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-4 | .333 | 16.8 | L1 | 17 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-4 | .200 | 21.0 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 40.0 | W3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-3 | .250 | 22.8 | W1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 7.0 | L2 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-3 | .000 | 4.7 |
| Scores 10-19 | 1-5 | .167 | 14.8 |
| Scores 20-29 | 2-3 | .400 | 24.4 |
| Scores 30-39 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 33.7 |
| Scores 40+ | 10-0 | 1.000 | 47.8 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 48.3 | W3 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 16.0 | L1 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 51.5 | W2 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-4 | .333 | 20.3 | L1 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-3 | .571 | 32.1 | L1 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 4-3 | .571 | 32.1 | L1 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-3 | .571 | 32.1 | L1 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 35.2 | L1 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 7.0 | L2 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 48.3 | W3 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 16.0 | L1 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-4 | .200 | 21.0 | L1 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 40.0 | W3 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-3 | .250 | 22.8 | W1 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 7.0 | L2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-2 | .000 | 14.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 0-1 | .000 | 21.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 31.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 48.3 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-2 | .000 | 43.0 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.3 | W3 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 18.5 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-1 | .667 | 27.7 | L1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-1 | .500 | 38.0 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-1 | .667 | 14.7 | W1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-1 | .500 | 38.0 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 2-1 | .667 | 14.7 | W1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 27.3 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 19.0 | L1 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 30.7 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W2 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-2 | .000 | 43.0 | L2 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.3 | W3 | 22 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 5-2 | .714 | 18.3 | W3 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-2 | .000 | 52.0 | L2 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 3-1 | .750 | 17.5 | W2 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.7 | W3 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 3.3 |
| Allows 10-19 | 4-1 | .800 | 13.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 5-1 | .833 | 23.3 |
| Allows 30-39 | 1-3 | .250 | 34.2 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-6 | .000 | 48.7 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-2 | .000 | 43.0 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 13.5 | W2 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 18.5 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 1-1 | .500 | 38.0 | L1 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-1 | .500 | 38.0 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-1 | .500 | 18.5 | W1 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-1 | .500 | 38.0 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-1 | .500 | 18.5 | W1 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 27.3 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 31.0 | L1 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 30.7 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 21.0 | W1 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-2 | .000 | 43.0 | L2 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 13.5 | W2 | 4 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-2 | .667 | 20.2 | W3 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-2 | .000 | 52.0 | L2 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-1 | .667 | 21.0 | W2 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 6.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 21.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-2 | .000 | 33.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-2 | .000 | 52.0 |
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| SPR | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 50.5 | W4 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 16.8 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 53.3 | W3 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 20.4 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 9 | 6-3 | .667 | 33.7 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 9 | 6-3 | .667 | 33.7 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 0.0 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 35.2 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 10.5 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 38.3 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 11.7 | L2 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 50.5 | W4 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 16.8 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 21.0 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 40.0 | W3 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 22.8 | W1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 7.0 | L2 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 4.7 | L3 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 14.8 | L3 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 24.4 | L1 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 33.7 | W3 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 10 | 10-0 | 1.000 | 47.8 | W10 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 43.0 | L2 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.3 | W3 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 18.5 | W1 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 27.7 | L1 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 38.0 | L1 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 14.7 | W1 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 38.0 | L1 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 14.7 | W1 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 27.3 | W1 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 19.0 | L1 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 30.7 | W1 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W2 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 43.0 | L2 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.3 | W3 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 18.3 | W3 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 52.0 | L2 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 17.5 | W2 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 11.7 | W3 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 6 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 3.3 | W6 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 13.0 | W2 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 23.3 | W3 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 34.2 | L3 |
| SPR | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 6 | 0-6 | .000 | 48.7 | L6 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-2 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-2 |
| OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-2 |
| OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-1 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-2 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-2 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-2 |
| SPR | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 3-1 |
SPR OFFENSE
SPR's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.6 giveaways per game. (-38%)
SPR's offense has averaged 213.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 157.2 pass yards per game. (+36%)
SPR's offense has averaged 37.3 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 29.8 points scored per game. (+25%)
SPR's offense has averaged 12.5 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 10.4 YPA. (+21%)
SPR DEFENSE
SPR's defense has averaged 5.7 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 5-game average is 3.5 YPC. (+60%)
SPR's defense has averaged 51.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 5-game average is 109.0 rush yards per game. (-53%)
SPR's defense has averaged 216.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 5-game average is 167.0 pass yards per game. (+29%)
SPR's defense has averaged 29.1 points allowed per game over their last 7 games. Their 27-game average is 24.2 points allowed per game. (+20%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| SPR | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 216.0 | 5 | 167.0 | +29.3% | |
| SPR | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 213.7 | 10 | 157.2 | +35.9% | |
| SPR | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 7 | 29.1 | 27 | 24.2 | +20.3% | |
| SPR | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 37.3 | 27 | 29.8 | +25.4% | |
| SPR | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 51.0 | 5 | 109.0 | -53.2% | |
| SPR | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.0 | 8 | 1.6 | -38.5% | |
| SPR | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 12.5 | 10 | 10.4 | +20.8% | |
| SPR | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 5.7 | 5 | 3.5 | +60.1% |
The program's index across 3 seasons on file -- 7.7 in 2024 to -9.1 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
