In short: Saddleback Roadrunners high school football (Santa Ana, CA), 2026 season: 0-9 in the Sigma League. Last game: L 0-41 vs Costa Mesa on October 26, 2026. Next: vs Anaheim, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Saddleback's next game, against Anaheim, and the recent returns favor Anaheim. Saddleback committed 0.8 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (0-5), #68 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), the Roadrunners have committed 2.0 giveaways per game, a 150% rise, #313 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.3 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Saddleback turned it over 47% more than those defenses usually force. Meanwhile, Anaheim's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Colonists have forced 0.5 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #322 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against some of the better offenses in CIF-SS (0.9 per game on the season, which would rank #75). Against those norms, Anaheim forced 42% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #262 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
The number to watch when Saddleback meets Anaheim is Saddleback's run defense. Saddleback allowed 6.3 yards per carry (614 yards on 97 rushes) over its first 4 games (0-4), #270 in CIF-SS through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), the Roadrunners have allowed 9.7 yards per carry (1,158 yards on 119 rushes), a 54% rise, #377 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.1 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.3 yards per carry), Saddleback allowed 54% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Meanwhile, Anaheim's ground game has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Colonists have averaged 6.4 yards per carry (1,224 yards on 191 rushes) over their last 5 games (2-3), #127 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of run defenses in CIF-SS (5.4 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #178). Against those norms, Anaheim ran for 18% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #277 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Anaheim offers Saddleback a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Saddleback's season has been the direction of its defense. Saddleback allowed 31.0 points per game over its first 3 games (0-3), #304 in CIF-SS within that period. In the 6 games since that hot start (0-6), the Roadrunners have allowed 41.7 points per game, a 34% rise, #374 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Saddleback's last 6 opponents have averaged 27.4 points per game, a #161 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 24.5 points per game, #210 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.4 points per game), Saddleback allowed 52% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #243 in CIF-SS, well above the first 3 (#316), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Saddleback ranks #372 in CIF-SS in scoring defense. Anaheim's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #199 in CIF-SS (25.1 points per game).
The Roadrunners averaged 3.0 yards per carry (612 yards on 201 rushes) over their first 6 games (0-6), #360 in CIF-SS during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), Saddleback has averaged 3.7 yards per carry (347 yards on 95 rushes), a 20% rise, #292 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Saddleback's last 3 opponents have averaged 5.6 yards per carry, a #199 run defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 4.9 yards per carry, #112 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.6 yards per carry), Saddleback ran for 35% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #282 in CIF-SS. On the season, the Roadrunners rank #358 in CIF-SS in rushing. Anaheim's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #147 in CIF-SS (5.2 yards per carry).
TIDBITS (7 found)
• Club Saddleback has lost 10 straight, and a loss would make it 11 in a row. The last time they lost 11 or more in a row was 2022, a run of 18.
• Club The last time Saddleback went a game allowing 200+ passing yards was October 10, 2025 against Savanna (W, 60-21). Since then Saddleback has gone 14 straight games holding the opponent under 200 passing yards, a school-record 14 straight in the 19 seasons on record.
• Club Saddleback has gone 10 straight games being held under 8.0 yards per attempt (November 21, 2025 through October 26, 2026), going 0-10 over that stretch, a school-record 10 straight in the 19 seasons on record.
• Club Saddleback has gone 9 straight games being held under 6.0 yards per play (August 20, 2026 through October 26, 2026), going 0-9 over that stretch, matching the program record of 9 straight on record.
• Club Saddleback is 14-1 all time when allowing 10-19 points. Saddleback's last loss when allowing 10-19 points was August 23, 2024 against Tri-city Christian (L, 9-12).
• Club Saddleback has gone 10 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (November 21, 2025 through October 26, 2026), going 0-10 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (25 games).
• Player Johannes Bustos has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Saddleback, over a 25-game career on record. His career high is 9, set November 14, 2025 against Santa Rosa Academy (W, 28-11).
MILESTONE WATCH
Saddleback
Johannes Bustos needs 4 tackles for 50 (averaging 5.8 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 26 game; last updated Oct 27; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 8/9, sacks allowed 8/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 26.7/100 (-63 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 15.5/100 (-95 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 56.2/100 (-12 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 26.2/100 (+47 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
SAD finished 2025 at 10-3. Made the playoffs (3 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 21-17 over PACIFIC (PACIFIC finished 73% that season). Toughest loss: 21-24 to WOODBRIDGE (3-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
SAD HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• SAD averages 7.0+ yards per play (.917), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• SAD forces 2+ takeaways (.857), but most recently lost to South El Monte when doing so
• SAD throws for 200+ yards (.999), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• SAD averages 8.0+ yards per attempt (.800), and has won 8 straight when doing so
• SAD's defense has averaged 12.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 5.8 YPC. (+116%)
• SAD's offense has averaged 2.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 1.0 giveaways per game. (+94%)
• SAD's offense has averaged 12.3 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 33-game average is 122.8 pass yards per game. (-90%)
• SAD's defense has averaged 12.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 6.8 YPP. (+89%)
• SAD's offense has averaged 2.9 points scored per game over their last 7 games. Their 33-game average is 24.1 points scored per game. (-88%)
• SAD's defense has averaged 41.4 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 33-game average is 23.1 points allowed per game. (+80%)
• SAD's defense has averaged 281.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 158.0 rush yards per game. (+78%)
• SAD's offense has averaged 1.8 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 7.5 YPA. (-76%)
• SAD averages 7.1+ yards per attempt (SAD's own median) (.824)
• SAD's offense has committed 1+ turnover in 6 straight games (09/11/2026-10/26/2026), going 0-6 over that stretch.
• SAD's offense has averaged 110.9 total yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 33-game average is 266.0 total yards per game. (-58%)
SAD — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (33 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-10
.000
3.6
Scores 10-19
0-3
.000
12.7
Scores 20-29
5-4
.556
24.1
Scores 30-39
3-0
1.000
33.7
Scores 40+
8-0
1.000
50.4
SAD — OFFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
--
--
--
--
YPA < 8.0
0-9
.000
4.4
L9
Pass Yds 200+
--
--
--
--
Pass Yds < 200
0-9
.000
4.4
L9
Rush Yds 100+
0-3
.000
8.7
L3
Rush Yds < 100
0-6
.000
2.3
L6
Rush Yds 150+
0-2
.000
13.0
L2
Rush Yds < 150
0-7
.000
2.0
L7
YPC 5.0+
0-1
.000
14.0
L1
YPC < 5.0
0-8
.000
3.2
L8
YPP 6.0+
--
--
--
--
YPP < 6.0
0-9
.000
4.4
L9
YPP 7.0+
--
--
--
--
YPP < 7.0
0-9
.000
4.4
L9
Turnovers 1+
0-6
.000
3.3
L6
Turnovers < 1
0-3
.000
6.7
L3
Turnovers 2+
0-4
.000
3.5
L4
Turnovers > 2
0-2
.000
0.0
L2
SAD — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-7
.000
2.0
Scores 10-19
0-2
.000
13.0
Scores 20-29
--
--
--
Scores 30-39
--
--
--
Scores 40+
--
--
--
SAD — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (33 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
3-7
.300
29.4
L3
YPA < 8.0
9-7
.562
19.3
L5
7 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
1-2
.333
32.0
W1
Pass Yds < 200
11-12
.478
22.0
L8
7 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
8-13
.381
26.9
L8
Rush Yds < 100
6-2
.750
12.8
L1
4 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
6-9
.400
25.1
L7
Rush Yds < 150
8-6
.571
20.8
L2
4 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
6-11
.353
27.4
L8
YPC < 5.0
8-4
.667
16.8
L1
4 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
5-11
.312
31.3
L7
YPP < 6.0
9-4
.692
12.8
L2
4 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
2-9
.182
33.5
L5
YPP < 7.0
12-6
.667
16.6
L4
4 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
14-13
.519
22.4
L8
Turnovers < 1
2-4
.333
26.0
L2
Turnovers 2+
12-2
.857
14.3
L1
Turnovers > 2
7-0
1.000
12.3
W7
SAD — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (33 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
6-0
1.000
3.2
Allows 10-19
7-1
.875
14.1
Allows 20-29
3-5
.375
23.4
Allows 30-39
0-4
.000
33.8
Allows 40+
0-7
.000
43.9
SAD — DEFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-3
.000
34.3
L3
YPA < 8.0
0-4
.000
38.0
L4
2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
--
--
--
--
Pass Yds < 200
0-7
.000
36.4
L7
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
0-7
.000
37.0
L7
Rush Yds < 100
0-1
.000
43.0
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
0-6
.000
36.0
L6
Rush Yds < 150
0-2
.000
43.0
L2
1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
0-8
.000
37.8
L8
YPC < 5.0
--
--
--
--
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
0-7
.000
39.9
L7
YPP < 6.0
0-1
.000
23.0
L1
1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-5
.000
39.6
L5
YPP < 7.0
0-3
.000
34.7
L3
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
0-7
.000
39.9
L7
Turnovers < 1
0-2
.000
32.0
L2
Turnovers 2+
0-1
.000
32.0
L1
Turnovers > 2
--
--
--
--
SAD — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
--
--
--
Allows 10-19
--
--
--
Allows 20-29
0-2
.000
25.5
Allows 30-39
0-2
.000
35.0
Allows 40+
0-5
.000
44.4
ON THE BRINK
SADDLEBACK
• SADDLEBACK has been held under 100 passing in 9 straight games (8/20/26–10/26/26). It has not reached 10 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• SADDLEBACK has lost 10 straight (11/21/25–10/26/26). It has not reached 11 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• SADDLEBACK has committed 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/26/26). It has not committed 2+ turnovers in 3 straight since 10/6/23–10/27/23 (2023).
SAD's defense has averaged 12.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 5.8 YPC. (+116%)
SAD's defense has averaged 12.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 6.8 YPP. (+89%)
SAD's defense has averaged 41.4 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 33-game average is 23.1 points allowed per game. (+80%)
SAD's defense has averaged 281.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 158.0 rush yards per game. (+78%)
SAD's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 1.5 takeaways per game. (-57%)
SAD's defense has averaged 10.2 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 26-game average is 7.6 YPA. (+35%)
SAD's defense has averaged 332.5 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 29-game average is 262.2 total yards per game. (+27%)
SAD's defense has averaged 91.0 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 26-game average is 116.2 pass yards per game. (-22%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where SADDLEBACK sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 34.4, Defense Grade 57.9.
YARDS / ATTEMPT: SADDLEBACK VS THE SECTION
SADDLEBACK ranks #352 of 354 section teams in yards per attempt (0.73) -- a weakness worth a look.
SADDLEBACK: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -20.1 in 2022 to -22.2 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
