In short: Rocklin Thunder high school football (Rocklin, CA), 2026 season: 5-3 in the Sierra Foothill League League. Last game: L 29-37 vs Monterey Trail on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Jesuit, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Rocklin meets Jesuit is Rocklin's scoring defense. Rocklin allowed 2.3 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #2 in Section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Thunder have allowed 26.4 points per game, a 1031% rise, #81 in Section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Rocklin's last 5 opponents have averaged 32.2 points per game, a #46 offense in Section on the season, against 21.0 points per game, #106 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (32.2 points per game), Rocklin held those offenses 18% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #6 in Section, well above the first 3 (#34), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Jesuit's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Marauders have averaged 29.4 points per game over their last 5 games (2-3), #63 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in Section (28.2 points per game on the season, which would rank #90). Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #16 in Section, a strong slate. Jesuit offers Rocklin a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
Rocklin allowed 4.1 yards per play (676 yards on 166 snaps) over its first 4 games (3-1), #4 in Section through those games. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Thunder have allowed 7.3 yards per play (1,429 yards on 195 snaps), an 80% rise, #71 in Section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 7.0 yards per play, a #73 offense in Section on the season, against 8.6 yards per play, #29 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.0 yards per play), Rocklin allowed 5% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #10 in Section. Meanwhile, Jesuit's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Marauders have averaged 8.0 yards per play (1,425 yards on 179 snaps) over their last 4 games (1-3), #60 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in Section (6.6 yards per play on the season, which would rank #54). Against those norms, Jesuit gained 21% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #7 in Section, a strong slate. Jesuit offers Rocklin a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Rocklin's season has been the direction of its defense. Rocklin forced 3.2 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #2 in Section within that period. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Thunder have forced 1.2 takeaways per game, a 62% drop, #73 in Section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Rocklin's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.3 per game, a #82 offense in Section on the season, against 1.4 per game, #92 for the first 4. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #10 in Section. On the season, Rocklin ranks #15 in Section in takeaways. Jesuit's ball security sits in the middle of the pack, #73 in Section (1.2 per game).
Rocklin's run defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Thunder allowed 3.7 yards per carry (494 yards on 135 rushes) over their first 5 games (3-2), #15 in Section during those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), Rocklin has allowed 5.9 yards per carry (621 yards on 105 rushes), a 62% rise, #56 in Section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Rocklin's last 3 opponents have averaged 6.5 yards per carry, a #62 rushing attack in Section on the season, against 5.8 yards per carry, #86 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.5 yards per carry), Rocklin held those rushing attacks 10% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #21 in Section. On the season, the Thunder rank #28 in Section in run defense. It won't get any easier against Jesuit, whose ground game ranks #27 in Section (7.6 yards per carry).
Something changed for Rocklin's offense after its first 3 games. Rocklin averaged 41.3 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #12 in Section during that stretch. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Thunder have averaged 25.6 points per game, a 38% drop, #85 in Section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Rocklin's last 5 opponents have averaged 21.9 points per game, a #56 scoring defense in Section on the season, against 30.2 points per game, #105 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (21.9 points per game), Rocklin scored 17% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #6 in Section, well above the first 3 (#34), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Rocklin ranks #49 in Section in scoring. Jesuit's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #58 in Section (22.6 points per game).
Rocklin's ground game has run the ball better as the season has worn on. The Thunder averaged 3.9 yards per carry (652 yards on 168 rushes) over their first 5 games (3-2), #123 in Section over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), Rocklin has averaged 5.0 yards per carry (478 yards on 96 rushes), a 28% rise, #101 in Section over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.0 yards per carry on the season. On the season, the Thunder rank #123 in Section in rushing. That form gets a real test against Jesuit, whose run defense ranks #25 in Section (4.4 yards per carry).
One of Rocklin's shakiest areas lately has been its offense. Rocklin averaged 7.1 yards per play (1,150 yards on 162 snaps) over its first 3 games (3-0), #56 in Section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Thunder have averaged 5.5 yards per play (1,791 yards on 326 snaps), a 23% drop, #112 in Section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Rocklin's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.2 yards per play, a #37 defense in Section on the season, against 7.4 yards per play, #90 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.2 yards per play), Rocklin gained 11% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #6 in Section, well above the first 3 (#34), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Rocklin ranks #105 in Section in yards per play. It won't get any easier against Jesuit, whose defense ranks #28 in Section (5.8 yards per play).
TIDBITS (9 found)
• Club Rocklin is 18-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (18 such games).
• Club Rocklin is 28-2 all time when forcing 2+ turnovers. Rocklin's last loss when forcing 2+ turnovers was September 19, 2025 against Folsom (L, 21-34).
• Club Rocklin is 20-1 all time when holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards. Rocklin's last loss when holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards was October 6, 2023 against Folsom (L, 21-34).
• Player Rhys Mays has 3 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Damien Panteloglow has 48 tackles over his last 6 games (8.0 a game, September 4, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 6-game stretch on record.
• Player Luke May has gone 2 straight games running for a touchdown, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 4 straight games running for a touchdown, during the 2026 season.
• Player Parker Lively has gone 2 straight games throwing for 200+ yards, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 3 straight games throwing for 200+ yards, during the 2026 season.
• Player Parker Lively has gone 2 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 4 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, during the 2026 season.
• Player Mason Cunningham has never had a game rushing for 100+ yards for Rocklin, over a 44-game career on record. His career high is 76, set October 3, 2025 against Whitney (W, 53-20).
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 20; roster and numbers checked Oct 6.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (sacks/INT 7/8, sacks allowed 7/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 82.2/100 (+67 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 62.9/100 (+18 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 92.0/100 (-82 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 87.8/100 (-90 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-30
vs
JESUIT
5-3
31.0
2026-11-06
at
DEL ORO
6-2
35.5
LAST YEAR
ROC finished 2025 at 6-6. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 28-23 over BISHOP MANOGUE (BISHOP MANOGUE finished 75% that season). Toughest loss: 14-15 to DEL ORO (1-point margin).
ROC's defense has averaged 207.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 31-game average is 129.6 rush yards per game. (+60%)
ROC's defense has averaged 26.4 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 33-game average is 18.5 points allowed per game. (+42%)
ROC's defense has averaged 365.3 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 31-game average is 281.1 total yards per game. (+30%)
ROC's defense has averaged 1.2 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 33-game average is 1.7 takeaways per game. (-29%)
ROC's defense has averaged 5.8 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 31-game average is 4.6 YPC. (+27%)
ROC's defense has averaged 7.2 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 31-game average is 5.7 YPP. (+26%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where ROCKLIN sits among 148 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 73.5, Defense Grade 89.7.
POINTS ALLOWED / GAME: ROCKLIN VS THE SECTION
ROCKLIN ranks #2 of 148 section teams in points allowed per game (2.3) -- a strength worth a look.
ROCKLIN: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 29.3 in 2022 to 32.5 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
