In short: Moriarty Pintos high school football (Moriarty, NM), 2026 season: 7-2. Last game: W 54-0 vs Hatch Valley on October 23, 2026. Next: at NMMI, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 7-2 this season |
| LAST GAME | W 54-0 vs HATCH VALLEY |
| NEXT GAME | NMMI (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 20.0 · Rush Off 98.7 · Pass Def 53.4 · Rush Def 80.7 |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MORIARTY | 20.0 (-77) | 98.7 (+242) | 53.4 (-8) | 80.7 (-69) |
Next: at NMMI, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Moriarty at NMMI.
The turnover battle could decide Moriarty's next game, against NMMI, and the recent returns favor Moriarty. Moriarty forced 1.0 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #18 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), the Pintos have forced 2.3 takeaways per game, a 133% rise, #5 in section in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.6 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.5 per game), Moriarty forced 52% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #10 in section, well above the first 5 (#17), which makes the improvement more impressive. Meanwhile, NMMI's ball security has struggled in recent weeks. NMMI has committed 2.5 giveaways per game over its last 4 games (1-3), #21 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker defenses in section (0.9 per game on the season, which would rank #22). Against those norms, NMMI turned it over 167% more than those defenses usually force. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Moriarty.
The number to watch when Moriarty meets NMMI is Moriarty's rushing. Moriarty averaged 11.1 yards per carry (1,014 yards on 91 rushes) over its first 3 games (3-0), #1 in section through those games. In the 6 games since that hot start (4-2), the Pintos have averaged 8.7 yards per carry (1,749 yards on 201 rushes), a 22% drop, #2 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Moriarty's last 6 opponents have averaged 6.1 yards per carry, a #17 run defense in section on the season, against 7.8 yards per carry, #24 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.1 yards per carry), Moriarty ran for 44% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #10 in section, well above the first 3 (#17), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, NMMI's run defense has struggled in recent weeks. NMMI has allowed 7.6 yards per carry (1,091 yards on 143 rushes) over its last 6 games (1-5), #19 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of rushing attacks in section (5.6 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #12). Against those norms, NMMI allowed 37% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
The biggest worry in Moriarty's season has been the direction of its pass defense. Moriarty allowed 5.9 yards per pass attempt (424 yards on 72 attempts) over its first 3 games (3-0), #11 in section within that period. In the 6 games since that hot start (4-2), the Pintos have allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt (591 yards on 83 attempts), a 21% rise, #11 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Moriarty's last 6 opponents have averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, a #15 passing attack in section on the season, against 4.7 yards per attempt, #21 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.9 yards per attempt), Moriarty held those passing attacks 9% below their usual yards per attempt. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #10 in section, well above the first 3 (#17), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Moriarty ranks #11 in section in pass defense. NMMI's passing game sits in the middle of the pack, #20 in section (4.8 yards per attempt).
The Pintos averaged 45.7 points per game over their first 3 games (3-0), #2 in section during those games. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 6 games since that hot start (4-2), Moriarty has averaged 38.2 points per game, a 16% drop, #7 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Moriarty's last 6 opponents have averaged 25.1 points per game, a #15 scoring defense in section on the season, against 29.9 points per game, #20 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (25.1 points per game), Moriarty scored 52% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #10 in section, well above the first 3 (#17), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Pintos rank #4 in section in scoring. NMMI's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #18 in section (29.0 points per game). Moriarty is 7-0 this season when it scores 29 or more, and 0-2 when it doesn't.
Moriarty's defense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. Moriarty allowed 5.9 yards per play (1,040 yards on 177 snaps) over its first 4 games (3-1), #17 in section during that stretch. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), the Pintos have allowed 5.1 yards per play (774 yards on 152 snaps), a 13% drop, #9 in section over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.1 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.0 yards per play), Moriarty held those offenses 15% below their usual yards per snap. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #10 in section, well above the first 4 (#17), which makes the improvement more impressive. On the season, Moriarty ranks #10 in section in yards per play allowed. The trend lines up well against NMMI, whose offense ranks just #25 of 27 (3.1 yards per play).
• Club Moriarty has won 2 straight, and a win would make it 3 in a row. The last time they won 3 or more in a row was 2026, a run of 3.
DATA WARNING: MORIARTY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME VS. HATCH VALLEY* MISSING
All stat areas in this report are subject to change as box scores are updated.
From the games on file through Sep 4.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Sep 4 game; last updated Sep 15.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| M. MANLEY-GRIEGO | 1 | 1/1 | 100.0% | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 125.2 | |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| M. ROMERO | 1 | 18 | 201 | 11.2 | 3 | |
| M. MANLEY-GRIEGO | 1 | 10 | 109 | 10.9 | 2 | |
| D. ORTIZ | 1 | 3 | 72 | 24.0 | 1 | |
| R. DENNISSON | 1 | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 1 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 1 | 36 | 419 | 11.6 | 7 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| K. CORVIN | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | |
| DEFENSE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | TCKL | TFL | SACKS | INT | INT YDS | PD | FF |
| T. DENOMME | 1 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| C. CARPENTER. | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| N. WOLF | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| M. ROMERO | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D. ORTIZ | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| B. SCHMUTZ | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| J. CARLSON | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| M. MANLEY-GRIEGO | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| R. DENNISSON | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| R. THACKERSON | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| J. SLOAN | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| F. ROMERO | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| J. TAPIA | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| A. HOLGUIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| A. MONTOYA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| A. RAMIREZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| J. CORDOVA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| K. CORVIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 1 | 66 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2026 | 7-2 | 366 | 100 | 40.7 |
| 2026 | 7-2 | 40.7 |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/21 | THOREAU | at | W | 52-0 | |
| 08/28 | VS. POJOAQUE VALLEY | vs | W | 34-8 | |
| 09/04 | ALBUQUERQUE ACADEMY | vs | W | 51-20 | |
| 09/11 | @ SILVER* | at | L | 19-22 | |
| 09/18 | @ HOT SPRINGS* | at | W | 42-6 | |
| 10/02 | VS. SOCORRO* | vs | W | 59-6 | |
| 10/09 | HOPE CHRISTIAN | vs | L | 7-26 | |
| 10/16 | RUIDOSO | at | W | 48-12 | |
| 10/23 | HATCH VALLEY | vs | W | 54-0 | |
| 10/30 | NMMI | at | PROJ | 45-2 | 98.4% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 7-2 | 1 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 7-2 so far | 8-2 (98%) | 8.0-2.0 |
| League | 4-2 so far | 4-2 (100%) | 4.0-2.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 9 | 40.7 | 11.1 | 372.4 | 226.8 | 39.2 | 41.1 |
| HOME | 5 | 41.0 | 12.0 | 332.2 | 251.0 | 36.2 | 40.8 |
| ROAD | 4 | 40.2 | 10.0 | 412.5 | 202.5 | 42.2 | 41.5 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Box-score coverage behind YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME: Overall 8/9 game(s), Home 4/5 game(s), Road 4/4 game(s).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/21 | @ Thoreau | W 52-0 | 31 | 239 | 270 | 14 | 35 | 49 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +2 |
| 8/28 | vs. Pojoaque Valley | W 34-8 | 0 | 356 | 356 | 105 | 146 | 251 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -1 |
| 9/4 | vs. Albuquerque Academy | W 51-20 | 3 | 419 | 422 | 305 | 69 | 374 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| 9/11 | @ Silver | L 19-22 | 39 | 272 | 311 | 88 | 278 | 366 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | 0 |
| 9/18 | @ Hot Springs | W 42-6 | 73 | 484 | 557 | 81 | 59 | 140 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | +1 |
| 10/2 | vs. Socorro | W 59-6 | 18 | 323 | 341 | 138 | -26 | 112 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +2 |
| 10/9 | vs. Hope Christian | L 7-26 | 52 | 158 | 210 | 208 | 59 | 267 | -- | -- | -- | 3 | +2 |
| 10/16 | @ Ruidoso | W 48-12 | -- | 512 | 512 | 76 | 179 | 255 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +2 |
| 10/23 | vs. Hatch Valley | W 54-0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| AVERAGES | 30.9 | 345.4 | 372.4 | 126.9 | 99.9 | 226.8 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | +7 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 8/9, defense 8/9, sacks/INT 1/9, sacks allowed 1/9, turnovers 8/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 20.0/100 (-77 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 98.7/100 (+242 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 53.4/100 (-8 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 80.7/100 (-69 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | at | NMMI | 1-8 | 11.3 |
• MOR holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.999), and has won 5 straight when doing so
• MOR holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.999), and has won 5 straight when doing so
• MOR stays under 8.0 yards per attempt (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• MOR commits zero giveaways (.800), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• MOR's offense has averaged 52.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 30.9 pass yards per game. (+69%)
• MOR's defense has averaged 2.5 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.5 takeaways per game. (+67%)
• MOR's offense has averaged 0.2 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 0.6 giveaways per game. (-60%)
• MOR's defense has averaged 1.7 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 3.3 YPC. (-48%)
• MOR's offense has averaged 11.0 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 8.0 YPA. (+38%)
• MOR's defense has averaged 67.8 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 99.9 rush yards per game. (-32%)
• MOR averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards
• MOR averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards
• MOR holds its opponents under 4.9 yards per play (MOR's own median) (.999)
• MOR rushes for 339.5+ yards (MOR's own median) (.999)
• MOR averages 10.6+ yards per carry (MOR's own median) (.999)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
MOR -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 2 of 2 scored; vs 1087 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 6-2 | .750 | 39.0 | W1 | 0.565 |
| 2 | OFF | Rush Yds 150+ | 6-2 | .750 | 39.0 | W1 | 0.435 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- MOR ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MOR rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 5-2 | .714 | 37.7 | L1 |
| MOR averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 6-1 | .857 | 43.6 | W3 |
| MOR averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 6-1 | .857 | 43.6 | W3 |
| MOR holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards | 4-1 | .800 | 11.6 | L1 |
| MOR averages 6.0+ yards per play while committing zero giveaways | 4-1 | .800 | 44.0 | W3 |
| MOR holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards | 4-0 | .999 | 5.0 | W4 |
| MOR holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry | 4-0 | .999 | 6.0 | W4 |
| MOR holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards while forcing 2+ takeaways | 3-1 | .750 | 13.0 | L1 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| MOR | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 5-2 | .714 | 37.7 |
| MOR | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 6-1 | .857 | 43.6 |
| MOR | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 6-1 | .857 | 43.6 |
| MOR | YPC < 5.0 & Rush Yds < 150 | 4-1 | .800 | 11.6 |
| MOR | YPP 6.0+ & Turnovers < 1 | 4-1 | .800 | 44.0 |
| MOR | Rush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 200 | 4-0 | .999 | 5.0 |
| MOR | YPA < 8.0 & YPC < 5.0 | 4-0 | .999 | 6.0 |
| MOR | Rush Yds < 150 & Turnovers 2+ | 3-1 | .750 | 13.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 2-2 | .500 | 30.0 | L1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 48.0 | W3 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 5-2 | .714 | 37.7 | L1 | 2 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 6-2 | .750 | 39.0 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 6-2 | .750 | 39.0 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 6-1 | .857 | 43.6 | W3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 6-1 | .857 | 43.6 | W3 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 6-0 | 1.000 | 47.7 | W6 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.0 | L2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-1 | .667 | 30.7 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 4-1 | .800 | 44.0 | W3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 51.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 51.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-1 | .000 | 19.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 34.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 6-0 | 1.000 | 51.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 22.7 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 6.4 | W5 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 23.0 | L1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 5-1 | .833 | 9.0 | W3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-1 | .667 | 14.0 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 4-1 | .800 | 11.6 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-1 | .500 | 17.0 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 5-1 | .833 | 11.0 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 15.0 | L1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 5-1 | .833 | 11.7 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 22.7 | L2 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 6.4 | W5 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 22.7 | L2 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 6.4 | W5 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 5-1 | .833 | 11.7 | W1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 15.0 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 4-1 | .800 | 12.8 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 26.0 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 12.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-2 | .333 | 22.7 |
| Allows 30-39 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 40+ | -- | -- | -- |
MORIARTY
• MORIARTY has scored 40+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has never reached 3 straight in the games on file, back to 2026.
• MORIARTY has held the opponent under 14 in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has never reached 3 straight in the games on file, back to 2026.
• MORIARTY has scored 30+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not scored 30+ in 3 straight since 8/21/26–9/4/26 (2026).
• MORIARTY has won by 20+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not won by 20+ in 3 straight since 8/21/26–9/4/26 (2026).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| MOR | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 30.0 | L1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 48.0 | W3 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 37.7 | L1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 39.0 | W1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 39.0 | W1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 7 | 6-1 | .857 | 43.6 | W3 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 7 | 6-1 | .857 | 43.6 | W3 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 6 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 47.7 | W6 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.0 | L2 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 30.7 | L1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 44.0 | W3 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 51.0 | W1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 51.0 | W1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 19.0 | L1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 34.0 | W1 |
| MOR | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 6 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 51.0 | W6 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 22.7 | L2 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 5 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 6.4 | W5 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 23.0 | L1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 9.0 | W3 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 14.0 | W1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 11.6 | L1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 17.0 | W1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 11.0 | L1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 15.0 | L1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 11.7 | W1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 22.7 | L2 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 5 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 6.4 | W5 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 22.7 | L2 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 5 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 6.4 | W5 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 11.7 | W1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 15.0 | L1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 12.8 | W1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 26.0 | L1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 5 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 4.0 | W5 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 12.0 | W1 |
| MOR | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 22.7 | L2 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
MOR OFFENSE
MOR's offense has averaged 52.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 30.9 pass yards per game. (+69%)
MOR's offense has averaged 0.2 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 0.6 giveaways per game. (-60%)
MOR's offense has averaged 11.0 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 8.0 YPA. (+38%)
MOR's offense has averaged 8.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 10.6 YPC. (-23%)
MOR DEFENSE
MOR's defense has averaged 2.5 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.5 takeaways per game. (+67%)
MOR's defense has averaged 1.7 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 3.3 YPC. (-48%)
MOR's defense has averaged 67.8 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 99.9 rush yards per game. (-32%)
MOR's defense has averaged 7.9 YPA over their last 7 games. Their 8-game average is 6.6 YPA. (+21%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| MOR | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 52.0 | 7 | 30.9 | +68.5% | |
| MOR | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 5 | 67.8 | 8 | 99.9 | -32.2% | |
| MOR | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 2.5 | 8 | 1.5 | +66.7% | |
| MOR | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 5 | 0.2 | 8 | 0.6 | -60.0% | |
| MOR | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 7 | 7.9 | 8 | 6.6 | +20.6% | |
| MOR | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 5 | 11.0 | 7 | 8.0 | +37.6% | |
| MOR | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 5 | 1.7 | 8 | 3.3 | -47.9% | |
| MOR | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 8.2 | 8 | 10.6 | -22.6% |
