Next: vs Mcallen, Fri 6 Nov. Matchup report: Mcallen at Mission.

The turnover battle could decide Mission's next game, against Mcallen, and the recent returns favor Mission. Mission forced 0.5 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (0-4), #959 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Eagles have forced 1.8 takeaways per game, a 260% rise, #245 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Mission's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.3 per game, a #659 offense in section on the season, against 0.9 per game, #294 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.3 per game), Mission forced 40% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #1016 in section, well below the first 4 (#659), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Mcallen's ball security has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have committed 0.0 giveaways per game over their last 5 games (5-0), #1 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker defenses in section (1.0 per game on the season, which would rank #845). Against those norms, Mcallen turned it over 100% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #983 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Mission's surging defense meets one of section's better units in Mcallen's.

The number to watch when Mission meets Mcallen is Mission's scoring. Mission averaged 16.6 points per game over its first 5 games (0-5), #1036 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Eagles have averaged 34.5 points per game, a 108% rise, #468 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Mission's last 4 opponents have averaged 38.4 points per game, a #988 scoring defense in section on the season, against 28.2 points per game, #609 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (38.4 points per game), Mission scored 10% less than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #1035 in section, well below the first 5 (#716), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Mcallen's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have allowed 7.2 points per game over their last 4 games (4-0), #51 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in section (19.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #952). Against those norms, Mcallen held those offenses 63% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #1079 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Mission's surging offense meets one of section's better units in Mcallen's.

The biggest shift in Mission's season has come in its ground game. Mission averaged 3.5 yards per carry (288 yards on 82 rushes) over its first 4 games (0-4), #929 in section within that period. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Eagles have averaged 6.0 yards per carry (953 yards on 160 rushes), a 70% rise, #494 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Mission's last 5 opponents have averaged 7.0 yards per carry, a #871 run defense in section on the season, against 6.1 yards per carry, #657 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.0 yards per carry), Mission ran for 14% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #1016 in section, well below the first 4 (#659), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Mission ranks #718 in section in rushing. That form gets a real test against Mcallen, whose run defense ranks #62 in section (3.5 yards per carry).

The Eagles committed 1.6 giveaways per game over their first 5 games (0-5), #823 in section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), Mission has committed 0.5 giveaways per game, a 69% drop, #171 in section during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Mission's last 4 opponents have averaged 0.7 per game, a #982 defense in section on the season, against 1.0 per game, #845 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (0.7 per game), Mission turned it over 32% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #1035 in section, well below the first 5 (#716), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Eagles rank #485 in section in giveaways. That form gets a real test against Mcallen, whose defense ranks #139 in section (2.1 per game).

Mission's defense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. Mission allowed 36.0 points per game over its first 3 games (0-3), #900 in section during that stretch. In the 6 games since that slow start (2-4), the Eagles have allowed 24.3 points per game, a 32% drop, #435 in section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Mission's last 6 opponents have averaged 23.7 points per game, a #835 offense in section on the season, against 26.7 points per game, #716 for the first 3. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #946 in section, well below the first 3 (#719), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Mcallen Memorial broke through in that span, putting up 49 on 10/15. On the season, Mission ranks #604 in section in scoring defense. That form gets a real test against Mcallen, whose offense ranks #62 in section (49.7 points per game).

Something changed for Mission's offense after its first 4 games. The Eagles averaged 5.6 yards per play (973 yards on 174 snaps) over their first 4 games (0-4), #762 in section over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), Mission has averaged 6.8 yards per play (1,567 yards on 232 snaps), a 21% rise, #525 in section over that span. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Mission's last 5 opponents have averaged 7.5 yards per play, a #836 defense in section on the season, against 6.9 yards per play, #621 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.5 yards per play), Mission gained 11% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #1016 in section, well below the first 4 (#659), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Eagles rank #666 in section in yards per play. That form gets a real test against Mcallen, whose defense ranks #24 in section (3.8 yards per play).

Mission's passing game has been stretching the field as the season has progressed. Mission averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt (685 yards on 92 attempts) over its first 4 games (0-4), #535 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Eagles have averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt (614 yards on 72 attempts), a 15% rise, #439 in section in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 8.4 yards per attempt on the season. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #1016 in section, well below the first 4 (#659), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Mission ranks #529 in section in passing. That form gets a real test against Mcallen, whose pass defense ranks #19 in section (4.5 yards per attempt).