In short: Mcnair Eagles high school football (Stockton, CA), 2026 season: 6-2. Last game: W 71-0 vs Weston Ranch on October 23, 2026. Next: at Stagg, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Mcnair meets Stagg is Mcnair's scoring defense. Mcnair allowed 13.3 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #18 in Section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), the Eagles have allowed 26.0 points per game, a 95% rise, #78 in Section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Mcnair's last 5 opponents have averaged 23.7 points per game, a #87 offense in Section on the season, against 19.5 points per game, #109 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.7 points per game), Mcnair allowed 10% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #110 in Section, well above the first 3 (#135), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Conversely, Stagg's offense has been one of Section's better units in recent weeks. The Delta Kings have averaged 32.8 points per game over their last 5 games (5-0), #48 in Section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker scoring defenses in Section (36.5 points per game on the season, which would rank #131). Against those norms, Stagg scored 10% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #116 in Section, a lower level of competition. Unless Mcnair's defense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Stagg. Mcnair is 6-0 this season when it holds opponents under 28, and 0-2 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle could decide Mcnair's next game, against Stagg, and the recent returns favor Mcnair. Mcnair forced 2.2 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #21 in Section through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Eagles have forced 3.8 takeaways per game, a 67% rise, #2 in Section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Mcnair's last 4 opponents have averaged 2.2 per game, a #131 offense in Section on the season, against 1.7 per game, #111 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (2.2 per game), Mcnair forced 71% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #118 in Section. Conversely, Stagg's ball security has been one of Section's better units in recent weeks. The Delta Kings have committed 0.5 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (4-0), #16 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker defenses in Section (0.9 per game on the season, which would rank #117). Against those norms, Stagg turned it over 45% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #127 in Section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Mcnair's surging defense meets one of Section's better units in Stagg's.
NOTES
The biggest shift in Mcnair's season has come in its offense. Mcnair averaged 39.0 points per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #10 in Section within that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Eagles have averaged 57.0 points per game, a 46% rise, #2 in Section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Mcnair's last 3 opponents have averaged 45.0 points per game, a #147 scoring defense in Section on the season, against 29.4 points per game, #100 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (45.0 points per game), Mcnair scored 27% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #138 in Section, well below the first 5 (#108), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Mcnair ranks #3 in Section in scoring. That form gets a real test against Stagg, whose defense ranks #2 in Section (8.0 points per game).
Mcnair's passing game from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Eagles averaged 11.3 yards per pass attempt (973 yards on 86 attempts) over their first 3 games (3-0), #22 in Section during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), Mcnair has averaged 9.6 yards per pass attempt (1,544 yards on 161 attempts), a 15% drop, #43 in Section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 9.3 yards per attempt on the season. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #110 in Section, well above the first 3 (#135), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Eagles rank #33 in Section in passing. It won't get any easier against Stagg, whose pass defense ranks #1 in Section (3.7 yards per attempt).
Something changed for Mcnair's offense after its first 4 games. Mcnair averaged 8.9 yards per play (1,791 yards on 202 snaps) over its first 4 games (3-1), #23 in Section during that stretch. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Eagles have averaged 10.0 yards per play (1,571 yards on 157 snaps), a 13% rise, #18 in Section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Mcnair's last 4 opponents have averaged 9.0 yards per play, a #136 defense in Section on the season, against 7.7 yards per play, #101 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.0 yards per play), Mcnair gained 11% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #118 in Section. On the season, Mcnair ranks #18 in Section in yards per play. That form gets a real test against Stagg, whose defense ranks #1 in Section (3.6 yards per play).
TIDBITS (14 found)
• Club Mcnair has won 3 straight, and a win would make it 4 in a row. The last time they won 4 or more in a row was 2024, a run of 5.
• Club Mcnair has gone 11 straight games forcing 1+ turnover (October 17, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 6-5 over that stretch, a school-record 11 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Mcnair is 12-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (12 such games).
• Club Mcnair is 16-2 all time when rushing for 100+ yards. Mcnair's last loss when rushing for 100+ yards was October 25, 2024 against Chavez (L, 18-26).
• Club Mcnair has scored 171 points over its last 3 games (57.0 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Club Mcnair is 15-1 all time when averaging 8.0+ yards per attempt. Mcnair's last loss when averaging 8.0+ yards per attempt was September 6, 2024 against Lodi (L, 16-20).
• Club Mcnair is 14-2 all time when holding the opponent under 6.0 yards per play. Mcnair's last loss when holding the opponent under 6.0 yards per play was October 17, 2025 against Stagg (L, 8-32).
• Club Mcnair has gone 4 straight games averaging 5.0+ yards per carry (September 25, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 3-1 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2025 (5 games).
• Player Giovanni Barbosa has gone 12 straight games making 10 or more tackles, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Nate Vega has gone 8 straight games making 10 or more tackles, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Shawn San has gone 7 straight games throwing for 200+ yards, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Shawn San has gone 7 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Taevion Gibson has 470 receiving yards over his last 3 games (156.7 a game, September 11, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Taevion Gibson has 7 touchdown catches over his last 4 games (1.8 a game, September 4, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
MILESTONE WATCH
Mcnair
Joseph Riggins needs 6 rushing yards for 500 (averaging 70.6 a game)
Taevion Gibson needs 1 receiving touchdown for 10 (averaging 1.8 a game)
Nate Vega needs 11 tackles for 100 (averaging 12.7 a game)
Shawn San needs 4 touchdown passes for 30 (averaging 3.7 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 21; roster and numbers checked Sep 6.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 6/8, sacks/INT 7/8, sacks allowed 5/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 85.9/100 (+83 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 21.4/100 (-77 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 70.1/100 (-33 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 33.4/100 (+30 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
MCN finished 2025 at 3-6. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 26-14 over FRANKLIN (FRANKLIN finished 30% that season). Toughest loss: 22-28 to CERES (6-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
MCN HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• MCN holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.778), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• MCN averages 6.0+ yards per play (.727), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• MCN holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.765), and has won 4 straight when doing so
• MCN commits fewer than 3 giveaways (.667), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• MCN's defense has forced 1+ turnover in 11 straight games (10/17/2025-10/23/2026), going 6-5 over that stretch.
• MCN's defense has averaged 4.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 2.4 takeaways per game. (+83%)
• MCN's offense has averaged 15.2 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 8.5 YPA. (+78%)
• MCN's offense has averaged 57.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 32.9 points scored per game. (+73%)
• MCN's offense has averaged 0.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 1.1 giveaways per game. (-69%)
• MCN's offense has averaged 14.1 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 8.8 YPP. (+60%)
• MCN's defense has averaged 10.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 23.1 points allowed per game. (-54%)
• MCN averages 7.7+ yards per attempt (MCN's own median) (.923)
• MCN averages 7.3+ yards per carry (MCN's own median) (.923)
• MCN's defense has averaged 160.5 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 112.1 pass yards per game. (+43%)
• MCN's offense has averaged 314.6 pass yards per game over their last 10 games. Their 25-game average is 220.0 pass yards per game. (+43%)
• MCNAIR has scored 40+ in 3 straight games (10/2/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• MCNAIR has held the opponent under 14 in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• MCNAIR has won by 20+ in 3 straight games (10/2/26–10/23/26). It has not won by 20+ in 4 straight since 9/20/24–10/18/24 (2024).
• MCNAIR has forced 2+ turnovers in 4 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not forced 2+ turnovers in 5 straight since 9/6/24–10/18/24 (2024).
MCN's defense has averaged 4.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 2.4 takeaways per game. (+83%)
MCN's defense has averaged 10.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 27-game average is 23.1 points allowed per game. (-54%)
MCN's defense has averaged 160.5 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 112.1 pass yards per game. (+43%)
MCN's defense has averaged 360.8 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 263.3 total yards per game. (+37%)
MCN's defense has averaged 8.4 YPP over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 6.2 YPP. (+35%)
MCN's defense has averaged 8.9 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 6.7 YPA. (+33%)
MCN's defense has averaged 7.8 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 5.9 YPC. (+33%)
MCN's defense has averaged 200.2 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 25-game average is 151.2 rush yards per game. (+32%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where MCNAIR sits among 148 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 54.0, Defense Grade 66.0.
PASS YARDS / GAME: MCNAIR VS THE SECTION
MCNAIR ranks #3 of 130 section teams in passing yards per game (324.3) -- a strength worth a look.
MCNAIR: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -15.3 in 2022 to -0.9 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
