In short: Mckinney Lions high school football (Mckinney, TX), 2026 season: 2-6. Last game: L 10-38 vs Rock Hill on October 23, 2026. Next: at Dallas Jesuit, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 2-6 this season |
| LAST GAME | L 10-38 vs ROCK HILL |
| NEXT GAME | DALLAS JESUIT (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 34.9 · Rush Off 58.8 · Pass Def 25.6 · Rush Def 43.8 |
| ENROLLMENT | 2,387 STUDENTS (2024-25) · PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOL |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCKINNEY | 34.9 (-45) | 58.8 (+8) | 25.6 (+32) | 43.8 (+9) |
Next: at Dallas Jesuit, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Mckinney at Dallas Jesuit.
The number to watch when Mckinney meets Dallas Jesuit is Mckinney's scoring defense. Mckinney allowed 25.3 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #518 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Lions have allowed 51.0 points per game, a 101% rise, #1152 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Mckinney's last 5 opponents have averaged 39.1 points per game, a #259 offense in section on the season, against 31.5 points per game, #530 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (39.1 points per game), Mckinney allowed 30% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #88 in section, well above the first 3 (#315), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Dallas Jesuit's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Rangers have averaged 35.0 points per game over their last 5 games (3-2), #430 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in section (26.5 points per game on the season, which would rank #527). Against those norms, Dallas Jesuit scored 32% more than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #116 in section, a strong slate. Dallas Jesuit offers Mckinney a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Mckinney is 2-2 this season when it holds opponents under 33, and 0-4 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle could decide Mckinney's next game, against Dallas Jesuit, and the recent returns favor Dallas Jesuit. Mckinney forced 2.2 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #128 in section through those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Lions have forced 1.2 takeaways per game, a 44% drop, #488 in section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 1.4 per game, a #765 offense in section on the season, against 0.7 per game, #192 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Mckinney forced 12% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #112 in section. Conversely, Dallas Jesuit's ball security has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Rangers have committed 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #272 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better defenses in section (1.6 per game on the season, which would rank #378). Against those norms, Dallas Jesuit turned it over 58% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #41 in section, a strong slate. Unless Mckinney's defense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Dallas Jesuit.
Mckinney's passing game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Mckinney averaged 6.0 yards per pass attempt (808 yards on 135 attempts) on the season, #836 in section, but that number is boosted by a 203-yard game on 17 attempts against Little Elm on 9/11. In all other games, Mckinney is at 5.1 yards per pass attempt (605 yards on 118 attempts), a figure that would rank #918 in section. Little Elm's pass defense sits near the middle of the pack (7.7 yards per attempt, #525 of 1232). Against Dallas Jesuit, Mckinney draws a middle-of-the-pack pass defense (8.9 yards per attempt, #807), so expect something closer to the 5.1 version.
The biggest shift in Mckinney's season has come in its ground game. The Lions averaged 4.4 yards per carry (865 yards on 197 rushes) over their first 5 games (1-4), #834 in section within that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), Mckinney has averaged 6.4 yards per carry (579 yards on 90 rushes), a 47% rise, #380 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Mckinney's last 3 opponents have averaged 5.9 yards per carry, a #578 run defense in section on the season, against 4.3 yards per carry, #154 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.9 yards per carry), Mckinney ran for 10% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, the Lions rank #739 in section in rushing. Dallas Jesuit's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #741 in section (6.4 yards per carry).
Mckinney's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Mckinney allowed 6.0 yards per play (990 yards on 166 snaps) over its first 3 games (1-2), #416 in section during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Lions have allowed 8.0 yards per play (2,372 yards on 296 snaps), a 34% rise, #862 in section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.2 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.2 yards per play), Mckinney allowed 12% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #88 in section, well above the first 3 (#315), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Mckinney ranks #766 in section in yards per play allowed.
Something changed for Mckinney's run defense after its first 4 games. The Lions allowed 5.7 yards per carry (838 yards on 148 rushes) over their first 4 games (1-3), #556 in section during that stretch. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), Mckinney has allowed 7.0 yards per carry (883 yards on 127 rushes), a 23% rise, #806 in section over that period. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, a #577 rushing attack in section on the season, against 6.3 yards per carry, #436 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.6 yards per carry), Mckinney allowed 23% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #112 in section. On the season, the Lions rank #698 in section in run defense.
Mckinney's offense has scored less as the season has worn on. Mckinney averaged 27.2 points per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #679 in section over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), the Lions have averaged 21.0 points per game, a 23% drop, #839 in section over that span. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 3 opponents have been softer, averaging 27.9 points per game, a #592 scoring defense in section on the season, against 24.6 points per game, #435 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.9 points per game), Mckinney scored 25% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #185 in section. Mckinney was held to 14 points or fewer 2 times in those games, including 3 against ScorePirate TX section #2 Allen on 10/9. On the season, Mckinney ranks #776 in section in scoring. Dallas Jesuit's defense, #1049 of 1235 (40.6 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Mckinney needs.
• Club Mckinney has gone 8 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 2-6 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Mckinney has gone 6 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 11, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-5 over that stretch, a school-record 6 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Mckinney has gone 5 straight games being held under 8.0 yards per attempt (September 18, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 1-4 over that stretch, a school-record 5 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Mckinney is 14-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (14 such games).
• Club Mckinney has allowed 129 points over its last 3 games (43.0 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch since the 157 from September 11, 2026 through September 24, 2026.
• Player Jawan Taylor has 32 tackles over his last 3 games (10.7 a game, August 28, 2026 through September 11, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Jayden Ford has 35 tackles over his last 3 games (11.7 a game, September 4, 2026 through September 18, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
Mckinney has played one of the toughest schedules in the pool so far (#17 of 1236), and what is left is a tougher-than-average slate (#376 of 1145): the hard part is behind it.
From the games on file through Sep 18.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Sep 18 game; last updated Sep 21; roster and numbers checked Sep 13.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| 5 | KIP KILLOUGH | 4 | 34/65 | 52.3% | 505 | 7.8 | 3 | 2 | 126.6 |
| 34 | BLAZE BARR | 1 | 2/3 | 66.7% | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 156.3 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 36/68 | 52.9% | 537 | 7.9 | 3 | 2 | 128.0 | |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| 21 | TJ CORBETT | 4 | 36 | 194 | 5.4 | 3 |
| 5 | KIP KILLOUGH | 4 | 35 | 143 | 4.1 | 2 |
| 7 | RYAN JAMES | 4 | 3 | 73 | 24.3 | 0 |
| 26 | AARON WOODS | 4 | 20 | 51 | 2.5 | 0 |
| 25 | JESHUA BRIDGEWATER | 4 | 19 | 26 | 1.4 | 1 |
| 24 | MARKEALL DAVIS | 1 | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| 34 | BLAZE BARR | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| 6 | GRIFFIN SHELLEY | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| 18 | JAMARI HUMPHREY | 4 | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 122 | 519 | 4.3 | 6 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| 6 | GRIFFIN SHELLEY | 3 | 5 | 145 | 29.0 | 1 |
| 21 | TJ CORBETT | 4 | 4 | 86 | 21.5 | 1 |
| 1 | MASON SEELEY | 3 | 6 | 77 | 12.8 | 1 |
| 7 | RYAN JAMES | 4 | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 |
| 17 | CALEB WEGMAN | 1 | 1 | 38 | 38.0 | 0 |
| 40 | GRANT BAUMANN | 1 | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| 18 | JAMARI HUMPHREY | 4 | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| 41 | ELI PRESLEY | 1 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| 13 | JAYDEN WASHINGTON | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| 19 | DASHON ANCRUM | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| 26 | AARON WOODS | 4 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 31 | 469 | 15.1 | 3 | |
| DEFENSE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | TCKL | TFL | SACKS | INT | INT YDS | PD | FF |
| 4 | JAYDEN FORD | 4 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 44 | CASON WHITE | 3 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 | JAWAN TAYLOR | 3 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | KADEN SCOBY-LUMPKIN | 4 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | PIERCE GAZAWAY | 4 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 91 | RYDER SODERMAN | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | CAYDEN GRIFFITH | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | JARVARION BRIGHT | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | CHIJIOKE UKAJI | 2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 90 | D'KAILEN TAYLOR | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 50 | TRENTON ANDERSON | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | AMARI PENN | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | XAVIER BAILEY | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 | CALEB RAMIREZ | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | CAM TURNER | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | JAYDEN GRAY | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 54 | KENTON WASHINGTON | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | LEGEND REID | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | DASHON ANCRUM | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 | JAMIR BOWIE | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | KOLTON DEEGAN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | SEDRIC MOORE | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | ZACH LONG | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | DASHAWN ENGRAM IV | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | JAVIS MOTEN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 99 | MIGUEL CASTANON | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | CALEB WEGMAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TEAM TOTALS | 4 | 276 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 4 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 500 | 350 | 38.5 |
| 2023 | 9-3 | 371 | 229 | 30.9 |
| 2024 | 6-5 | 295 | 264 | 26.8 |
| 2025 | 3-7 | 161 | 300 | 16.1 |
| 2026 | 2-6 | 199 | 331 | 24.9 |
| 2022-26 | 28-26 | 28.3 |
1 UIL state title · 2 state final losses
| YEAR | HONOR |
| 1986 | UIL STATE 4A RUNNER-UP (lost to West Orange-Stark 21-9) |
| 1979 | UIL STATE 3A CHAMPION (def. Bay City 20-7) |
| 1966 | UIL STATE 3A RUNNER-UP (lost to Bridge City 30-6) |
State championship games and title-game MVPs: UIL Fall Almanac 2025-26. League finishes: no league schedule on file yet, so none is claimed.
| # | Team | Dist | Ovr | Rank | Proj. | Dist. pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALLEN | 5-0 | 8-0 | 2 / 2 | 1 (6.9-0.1) | 333-59 | 10/30 vs MCKINNEY BOYD |
| 2 | PROSPER | 4-1 | 7-1 | 4 / 6 | 2 (5.7-1.3) | 265-127 | 10/30 vs WALNUT GROVE |
| 3 | WALNUT GROVE | 4-1 | 7-1 | 14 / 26 | 3 (4.4-2.6) | 240-128 | 10/30 vs PROSPER |
| 4 | DALLAS JESUIT | 3-2 | 4-4 | 103 / 343 | 4 (4.1-2.9) | 175-208 | 10/30 vs MCKINNEY |
| 5 | ROCK HILL | 2-3 | 4-4 | 97 / 311 | 5 (3.4-3.6) | 114-187 | 10/30 vs PRINCETON |
| 6 | MCKINNEY BOYD | 1-4 | 2-6 | 140 / 557 | 7 (1.4-5.6) | 63-170 | 10/30 vs ALLEN |
| 7 | MCKINNEY | 1-4 | 2-6 | 122 / 461 | 6 (2.0-5.0) | 124-255 | 10/30 vs DALLAS JESUIT |
| 8 | PRINCETON | 0-5 | 2-6 | 182 / 719 | 8 (0.1-6.9) | 51-231 | 10/30 vs ROCK HILL |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/28 | MCKINNEY NORTH | at | L | 24-31 | |
| 09/04 | FORNEY | vs | W | 23-14 | |
| 09/11 | LITTLE ELM | at | L | 28-31 | |
| 09/18 | WALNUT GROVE | at | L | 35-63 | |
| 09/24 | PROSPER | vs | L | 26-63 | |
| 10/09 | ALLEN | at | L | 3-70 | |
| 10/16 | PRINCETON | at | W | 50-21 | |
| 10/23 | ROCK HILL | vs | L | 10-38 | |
| 10/30 | DALLAS JESUIT | at | PROJ | 27-34 | 37.5% |
| 11/05 | MCKINNEY BOYD | vs | PROJ | 30-25 | 59.4% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 2-6 | 2 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 2-6 so far | 3-7 (54%) | 3.0-7.0 |
| League | 1-4 so far | 1-4 (100%) | 1.0-4.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 8 | 24.9 | 41.4 | 281.5 | 420.2 | 52.8 | 57.8 |
| HOME | 3 | 19.7 | 38.3 | 307.0 | 351.0 | 67.3 | 52.7 |
| ROAD | 5 | 28.0 | 43.2 | 266.2 | 461.8 | 44.0 | 60.8 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/28 | @ McKinney North | L 24-31 | 156 | 95 | 251 | 60 | 361 | 421 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 |
| 9/4 | vs. Forney | W 23-14 | 55 | 124 | 179 | 54 | 102 | 156 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 |
| 9/11 | @ Little Elm | L 28-31 | 203 | 165 | 368 | 239 | 174 | 413 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 |
| 9/18 | @ Walnut Grove | L 35-63 | 123 | 135 | 258 | 421 | 201 | 622 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 9/24 | vs. Prosper | L 26-63 | 93 | 346 | 439 | 366 | 145 | 511 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | -1 |
| 10/9 | @ Allen | L 3-70 | 41 | 101 | 142 | 155 | 352 | 507 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -2 |
| 10/16 | @ Princeton | W 50-21 | 32 | 280 | 312 | 216 | 130 | 346 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | +1 |
| 10/23 | vs. Rock Hill | L 10-38 | 105 | 198 | 303 | 130 | 256 | 386 | -- | -- | -- | 1 | 0 |
| AVERAGES | 101.0 | 180.5 | 281.5 | 205.1 | 215.1 | 420.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | +3 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (sacks/INT 4/8, sacks allowed 4/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 34.9/100 (-45 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 58.8/100 (+8 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 25.6/100 (+32 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 43.8/100 (+9 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (adjusted for the opponents faced).
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | at | DALLAS JESUIT | 4-4 | 32.2 |
| 2026-11-05 | vs | MCKINNEY BOYD | 2-6 | 17.9 |
LAST YEAR
MCK finished 2025 at 3-7. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 28-24 over PLANO WEST (PLANO WEST finished 60% that season). Toughest loss: 17-21 to EMERSON (4-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | EMERSON | L | 0-1 | 17 | 21 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-04 | LAKEVIEW CENTENNIAL | W | 1-1 | 28 | 14 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-11 | PLANO | L | 1-2 | 12 | 17 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-26 | ALLEN | L | 1-3 | 0 | 62 | 36 | 640 |
| 2025-10-03 | PRINCETON | L | 1-4 | 21 | 30 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-10 | PLANO WEST | W | 2-4 | 28 | 24 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | PROSPER | L | 2-5 | 0 | 59 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-23 | MCKINNEY BOYD | W | 3-5 | 29 | 15 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-31 | PLANO EAST | L | 3-6 | 13 | 20 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | ROCK HILL | L | 3-7 | 13 | 38 | N/A | N/A |
| TOTALS | 10 GMS | 3-7 | 3-7 | 161 | 300 | 36 (1) | 640 (1) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• MCK holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.667), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• MCK holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.500)
• MCK holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt (.500), but most recently lost to Rock Hill when doing so
• MCK holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.400)
• MCK's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 7 straight games (09/04/2026-10/23/2026), going 2-5 over that stretch.
• MCK's defense has averaged 51.0 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 29-game average is 30.9 points allowed per game. (+65%)
• MCK's offense has averaged 6.9 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 4.4 YPC. (+56%)
• MCK's offense has averaged 59.3 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 123.0 pass yards per game. (-52%)
• MCK's offense has failed to reach 8.0 YPA in 5 straight games (09/18/2026-10/23/2026), going 1-4 over that stretch.
• MCK's offense has failed to reach 200 pass yds in 5 straight games (09/18/2026-10/23/2026), going 1-4 over that stretch.
• MCK's offense has committed 1+ turnover in 5 straight games (09/18/2026-10/23/2026), going 1-4 over that stretch.
• MCK's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.8 takeaways per game. (-43%)
• MCK's offense has averaged 212.0 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 28-game average is 156.8 rush yards per game. (+35%)
• MCK's offense has averaged 1.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 2.0 giveaways per game. (-33%)
• MCK is 2-2 (.500) when it wins the turnover battle
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
MCK -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 13 scored; vs 1102 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Rush Yds 150+ | 7-7 | .500 | 25.6 | L1 | 0.798 |
| 2 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 9-11 | .450 | 25.4 | L1 | 0.772 |
| 3 | OFF | Pass Yds < 200 | 9-15 | .375 | 20.5 | L1 | 0.651 |
| 4 | DEF | Rush Yds 100+ | 2-9 | .182 | 43.9 | L1 | 0.587 |
| 5 | OFF | Turnovers 1+ | 2-6 | .250 | 22.1 | L1 | 0.569 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- MCK ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| MCK rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 8-10 | .444 | 23.2 | L1 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| MCK | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 8-10 | .444 | 23.2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-2 | .000 | 29.0 | L2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-7 | .222 | 20.6 | L1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-3 | .250 | 33.5 | L2 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 9-15 | .375 | 20.5 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 9-11 | .450 | 25.4 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-7 | .125 | 15.0 | L3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 7-7 | .500 | 25.6 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-11 | .214 | 19.1 | L2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 29.3 | L1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-7 | .125 | 19.4 | L3 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 36.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-7 | .125 | 16.9 | L4 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 39.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-8 | .111 | 18.3 | L4 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-6 | .250 | 22.1 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-2 | .000 | 26.0 | L2 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-5 | .167 | 19.5 | L3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-3 | .000 | 18.7 | L3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-4 | .000 | 2.5 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-8 | .000 | 13.8 |
| Scores 20-29 | 7-4 | .636 | 26.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-2 | .333 | 32.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 51.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-1 | .000 | 28.0 | L1 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-5 | .286 | 24.4 | L1 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-1 | .000 | 28.0 | L1 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-5 | .286 | 24.4 | L1 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-5 | .286 | 25.0 | L1 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-1 | .000 | 24.0 | L1 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-3 | .250 | 28.5 | L1 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-3 | .250 | 21.2 | L2 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 29.3 | L1 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 22.2 | L3 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 39.0 | W1 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-5 | .167 | 20.2 | L4 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 39.0 | W1 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-5 | .167 | 20.2 | L4 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-4 | .333 | 24.5 | L1 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-2 | .000 | 26.0 | L2 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-3 | .250 | 21.8 | L3 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 26.0 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-1 | .000 | 10.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 1-3 | .250 | 25.2 |
| Scores 30-39 | 0-1 | .000 | 35.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 50.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-7 | .000 | 54.1 | L7 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 26.0 | L1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-5 | .167 | 46.3 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 1-4 | .200 | 41.0 | L2 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-9 | .182 | 43.9 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-7 | .000 | 46.1 | L7 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 2-2 | .500 | 40.0 | W1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 0-6 | .000 | 52.8 | L6 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-3 | .400 | 33.2 | W1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 0-9 | .000 | 49.8 | L9 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 17.5 | W2 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-8 | .000 | 49.5 | L8 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 29.0 | W2 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-5 | .286 | 37.3 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 70.0 | L1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-4 | .333 | 37.2 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 3.5 |
| Allows 10-19 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.4 |
| Allows 20-29 | 6-4 | .600 | 23.6 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-6 | .000 | 34.3 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-6 | .000 | 61.5 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-4 | .000 | 56.8 | L4 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 26.0 | L1 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-3 | .250 | 44.5 | W1 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 1-3 | .250 | 38.2 | L2 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-6 | .250 | 41.4 | L1 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-5 | .000 | 46.6 | L5 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 2-1 | .667 | 32.7 | W1 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 53.0 | L5 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 22.0 | W1 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 0-6 | .000 | 49.3 | L6 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 17.5 | W2 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-6 | .000 | 49.3 | L6 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 17.5 | W2 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-5 | .286 | 37.3 | L1 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 70.0 | L1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-4 | .333 | 37.2 | W1 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 10-19 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 21.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-3 | .000 | 33.3 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-3 | .000 | 65.3 |
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| MCK | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 29.0 | L2 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 9 | 2-7 | .222 | 20.6 | L1 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 33.5 | L2 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 24 | 9-15 | .375 | 20.5 | L1 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 20 | 9-11 | .450 | 25.4 | L1 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 15.0 | L3 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 14 | 7-7 | .500 | 25.6 | L1 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 14 | 3-11 | .214 | 19.1 | L2 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 29.3 | L1 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 19.4 | L3 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 36.0 | W1 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 16.9 | L4 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 39.0 | W1 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 9 | 1-8 | .111 | 18.3 | L4 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 22.1 | L1 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 26.0 | L2 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 19.5 | L3 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 18.7 | L3 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 2.5 | L4 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 8 | 0-8 | .000 | 13.8 | L8 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 11 | 7-4 | .636 | 26.0 | L2 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 32.0 | L2 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 51.0 | W3 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 7 | 0-7 | .000 | 54.1 | L7 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 26.0 | L1 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 46.3 | W1 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 41.0 | L2 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 11 | 2-9 | .182 | 43.9 | L1 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 7 | 0-7 | .000 | 46.1 | L7 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 40.0 | W1 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 6 | 0-6 | .000 | 52.8 | L6 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 33.2 | W1 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 9 | 0-9 | .000 | 49.8 | L9 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 17.5 | W2 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 8 | 0-8 | .000 | 49.5 | L8 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 29.0 | W2 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 37.3 | L1 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 70.0 | L1 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 37.2 | W1 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W1 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 3.5 | W2 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.4 | W2 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 10 | 6-4 | .600 | 23.6 | W1 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 6 | 0-6 | .000 | 34.3 | L6 |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 6 | 0-6 | .000 | 61.5 | L6 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 games | 08/28/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-6 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 7 games | 09/04/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-5 |
| OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 5 games | 09/18/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-4 |
| OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 5 games | 09/18/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-4 |
| OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 games | 09/18/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-4 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| MCK | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 games | 08/28/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-6 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 7 games | 09/04/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-5 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 5 games | 09/18/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-4 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 5 games | 09/18/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-4 |
| MCK | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 games | 09/18/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-4 |
MCK OFFENSE
MCK's offense has averaged 6.9 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 4.4 YPC. (+56%)
MCK's offense has averaged 59.3 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 123.0 pass yards per game. (-52%)
MCK's offense has averaged 212.0 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 28-game average is 156.8 rush yards per game. (+35%)
MCK's offense has averaged 1.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 2.0 giveaways per game. (-33%)
MCK's offense has averaged 4.1 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 5.6 YPA. (-27%)
MCK's offense has averaged 6.2 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 5.1 YPP. (+20%)
MCK DEFENSE
MCK's defense has averaged 51.0 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 29-game average is 30.9 points allowed per game. (+65%)
MCK's defense has averaged 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.8 takeaways per game. (-43%)
MCK's defense has averaged 167.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 228.6 pass yards per game. (-27%)
MCK's defense has averaged 7.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 5.9 YPC. (+22%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| MCK | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 167.0 | 11 | 228.6 | -27.0% | |
| MCK | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 59.3 | 28 | 123.0 | -51.8% | |
| MCK | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 5 | 51.0 | 29 | 30.9 | +65.3% | |
| MCK | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 5 | 212.0 | 28 | 156.8 | +35.2% | |
| MCK | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.0 | 8 | 1.8 | -42.9% | |
| MCK | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.3 | 10 | 2.0 | -33.3% | |
| MCK | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 4.1 | 11 | 5.6 | -27.0% | |
| MCK | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 7.2 | 11 | 5.9 | +21.6% | |
| MCK | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 6.9 | 11 | 4.4 | +56.0% | |
| MCK | OFFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 6.2 | 11 | 5.1 | +20.2% |
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 21.2 in 2022 to 4.6 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
