In short: Heritage Coyotes high school football (Frisco, TX), 2026 season: 3-5. Last game: W 55-20 vs Centennial on October 22, 2026. Next: at Reedy, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 3-5 this season |
| LAST GAME | W 55-20 vs CENTENNIAL |
| NEXT GAME | REEDY (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 84.3 · Rush Off 7.8 · Pass Def 12.0 · Rush Def 22.2 |
| ENROLLMENT | 1,996 STUDENTS (2024-25) |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HERITAGE | 84.3 (+76) | 7.8 (-127) | 12.0 (+65) | 22.2 (+59) |
Next: at Reedy, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Heritage at Reedy.
The number to watch when Heritage meets Reedy is Heritage's scoring. Heritage averaged 25.8 points per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #734 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Coyotes have averaged 40.0 points per game, a 55% rise, #315 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Heritage's last 3 opponents have averaged 38.9 points per game, a #999 scoring defense in section on the season, against 27.2 points per game, #558 for the first 5. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #670 in section, well below the first 5 (#383), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Reedy's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Lions have allowed 41.7 points per game over their last 3 games (1-2), #960 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the better offenses in section (48.2 points per game on the season, which would rank #72). Against those norms, Reedy held those offenses 13% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #129 in section, a strong slate. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Heritage. Heritage is 3-1 this season when it scores 31 or more, and 0-4 when it doesn't.
Heritage's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Heritage averaged 3.1 yards per carry (457 yards on 149 rushes) on the season, #996 in section, but that number is boosted by a 101-yard game on 14 rushes against Turner on 9/10. In all other games, Heritage is at 2.6 yards per carry (356 yards on 135 rushes), a figure that would rank #1019 in section. Turner's run defense sits near the middle of the pack (6.4 yards per carry, #744 of 1232). Against Reedy, Heritage draws a middle-of-the-pack run defense (5.6 yards per carry, #494), so expect something closer to the 2.6 version.
The biggest worry in Heritage's season has been the direction of its run defense. The Coyotes allowed 4.6 yards per carry (563 yards on 123 rushes) over their first 3 games (1-2), #323 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), Heritage has allowed 7.1 yards per carry (1,034 yards on 145 rushes), a 56% rise, #862 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Heritage's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.5 yards per carry, a #388 rushing attack in section on the season, against 5.1 yards per carry, #731 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.5 yards per carry), Heritage allowed 9% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. On the season, the Coyotes rank #597 in section in run defense.
Heritage's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Heritage allowed 32.7 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #790 in section over that stretch. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Coyotes have allowed 47.6 points per game, a 46% rise, #1103 in section within that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Heritage's last 5 opponents have averaged 32.7 points per game, a #474 offense in section on the season, against 28.4 points per game, #657 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (32.7 points per game), Heritage allowed 46% more than those offenses usually score. On the season, Heritage ranks #1076 in section in scoring defense. Reedy's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #569 in section (30.5 points per game). Heritage is 3-0 this season when it holds opponents under 31, and 0-5 when it doesn't.
Something changed for Heritage's defense after its first 3 games. The Coyotes allowed 6.4 yards per play (1,211 yards on 188 snaps) over their first 3 games (1-2), #554 in section across those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), Heritage has allowed 8.3 yards per play (1,702 yards on 204 snaps), a 30% rise, #906 in section during those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Heritage's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.9 yards per play, a #504 offense in section on the season, against 6.1 yards per play, #682 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per play), Heritage allowed 20% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. On the season, the Coyotes rank #811 in section in yards per play allowed.
Heritage's passing game has gone cold through the air as the season has developed. Heritage averaged 9.8 yards per pass attempt (702 yards on 72 attempts) over its first 3 games (1-2), #221 in section during that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Coyotes have averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt (975 yards on 133 attempts), a 25% drop, #599 in section during that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Heritage's last 5 opponents have averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, a #483 pass defense in section on the season, against 8.7 yards per attempt, #774 for the first 3. On the season, Heritage ranks #486 in section in passing. Reedy's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #919 in section (9.5 yards per attempt).
• Club Heritage has won 2 straight, and a win would make it 3 in a row. The last time they won 3 or more in a row was 2023, a run of 4.
• Club The last time Heritage went a game holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards was October 11, 2024 against Wakeland (L, 27-30). Since then Heritage has gone 22 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards, a school-record 22 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Heritage is 13-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (13 such games).
• Club Heritage has scored 120 points over its last 3 games (40.0 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 22, 2026) -- its 4th-highest 3-game total on record; the most is 130, from September 14, 2023 through September 29, 2023.
• Club Heritage has allowed 186 points over its last 4 games (46.5 a game, October 1, 2026 through October 22, 2026) -- its 4th-highest 4-game total on record; the most is 209, from September 5, 2025 through October 3, 2025.
• Player D. Johnson has 392 receiving yards over his last 4 games (98.0 a game, October 30, 2025 through September 10, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player D. Johnson has 6 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (2.0 a game, August 27, 2026 through September 10, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Z. Providence has 38 tackles over his last 3 games (12.7 a game, August 27, 2026 through September 10, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
DATA WARNING: HERITAGE OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/22/2026 GAME VS. CENTENNIAL* MISSING
All stat areas in this report are subject to change as box scores are updated.
From the games on file through Sep 10.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Sep 10 game; last updated Sep 17.
| PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| C. ALLEN | 3 | 46/71 | 64.8% | 645 | 9.1 | 8 | 1 | 175.5 | |
| N. ZUREK | 3 | 1/1 | 100.0% | 57 | 57.0 | 1 | 0 | 908.8 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 3 | 47/72 | 65.3% | 702 | 9.8 | 9 | 1 | 185.6 | |
| RUSHING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| M. GRANT | 3 | 38 | 120 | 3.2 | 1 | |
| C. ALLEN | 3 | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 2 | |
| D. OWENS | 1 | 1 | 50 | 50.0 | 1 | |
| N. STUMPF | 3 | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 | |
| N. ZUREK | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | |
| T. ISLAM | 2 | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 3 | 67 | 243 | 3.6 | 4 | |
| RECEIVING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | REC | YDS | YPR | TD |
| M. LEWIS | 3 | 10 | 241 | 24.1 | 2 | |
| D. JOHNSON | 3 | 10 | 231 | 23.1 | 6 | |
| M. GRANT | 3 | 10 | 94 | 9.4 | 0 | |
| N. ZUREK | 3 | 9 | 90 | 10.0 | 0 | |
| D. OWENS | 1 | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 0 | |
| C. FINDLEY | 1 | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 | |
| L. PILLA | 2 | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 | |
| M. BROWN | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 | |
| N. STUMPF | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 3 | 51 | 748 | 14.7 | 9 | |
| DEFENSE | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | PLAYER | GP | TCKL | TFL | SACKS | INT | INT YDS | PD | FF |
| Z. PROVIDENCE | 3 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| M. BROWN | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| H. MARTIN | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| J. GREEN | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| A. HARRIS | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| D. FERREIRA | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| B. VANMETER | 3 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| A. BARTON IV | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| M. LEWIS | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| C. COBB | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| M. KOROMA | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| N. KELLER | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| T. ISLAM | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| A. ROWE | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| C. ANDREWS | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| J. RODRIGUEZ | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| L. PILLA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| N. FITZGERALD | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| L. WILSON | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| C. FINDLEY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 3 | 196 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 6-5 | 266 | 220 | 24.2 |
| 2023 | 6-4 | 287 | 228 | 28.7 |
| 2024 | 5-5 | 299 | 240 | 29.9 |
| 2025 | 2-8 | 229 | 453 | 22.9 |
| 2026 | 3-5 | 249 | 336 | 31.1 |
| 2022-26 | 22-27 | 27.1 |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/27 | PANTHER CREEK | vs | L | 14-42 | |
| 09/04 | RICHLAND | at | L | 37-56 | |
| 09/10 | TURNER | at | W | 41-0 | |
| 09/25 | MCKINNEY NORTH | at | L | 24-52 | |
| 10/01 | MELISSA | vs | L | 13-76 | |
| 10/09 | LONE STAR | at | L | 7-69 | |
| 10/15 | LIBERTY | at | W | 58-21 | |
| 10/22 | CENTENNIAL | vs | W | 55-20 | |
| 10/30 | REEDY | at | PROJ | 20-41 | 14.9% |
| 11/06 | LEBANON TRAIL | vs | PROJ | 36-24 | 71.9% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 3-5 | 2 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 3-5 so far | 4-6 (63%) | 3.8-6.2 |
| League | 2-3 so far | 3-4 (63%) | 2.8-4.2 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 8 | 31.1 | 42.0 | 304.9 | 416.1 | 50.6 | 56.0 |
| HOME | 3 | 27.3 | 46.0 | 259.0 | 405.5 | 55.5 | 48.0 |
| ROAD | 5 | 33.4 | 39.6 | 323.2 | 420.4 | 48.6 | 59.2 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Box-score coverage behind YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME: Overall 7/8 game(s), Home 2/3 game(s), Road 5/5 game(s).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/27 | vs. Panther Creek | L 14-42 | 177 | 45 | 222 | 344 | 192 | 536 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
| 9/4 | @ Richland | L 37-56 | 290 | 97 | 387 | 267 | 230 | 497 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
| 9/10 | @ Turner | W 41-0 | 235 | 101 | 336 | 37 | 141 | 178 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
| 9/25 | @ McKinney North | L 24-52 | 221 | 81 | 302 | 21 | 484 | 505 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -1 |
| 10/1 | vs. Melissa | L 13-76 | 278 | 18 | 296 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1 | +1 |
| 10/9 | @ Lone Star | L 7-69 | 178 | 71 | 249 | 377 | 310 | 687 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -3 |
| 10/15 | @ Liberty | W 58-21 | 298 | 44 | 342 | 124 | 111 | 235 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -1 |
| 10/22 | vs. Centennial | W 55-20 | -- | -- | -- | 146 | 129 | 275 | -- | -- | -- | 4 | +4 |
| AVERAGES | 239.6 | 65.3 | 304.9 | 188.0 | 228.1 | 416.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -2 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 7/8, defense 7/8, sacks/INT 3/8, sacks allowed 3/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 84.3/100 (+76 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 7.8/100 (-127 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 12.0/100 (+65 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 22.2/100 (+59 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | at | REEDY | 4-4 | 30.5 |
| 2026-11-06 | vs | LEBANON TRAIL | 1-7 | 16.4 |
LAST YEAR
HER finished 2025 at 2-8. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 49-46 over MCKINNEY NORTH (MCKINNEY NORTH finished 30% that season). Toughest loss: 27-29 to SHERMAN (2-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | GREENVILLE | W | 1-0 | 49 | 27 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-05 | TERRELL | L | 1-1 | 14 | 70 | 328 | 589 |
| 2025-09-19 | FRISCO | L | 1-2 | 28 | 56 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-25 | LONE STAR | L | 1-3 | 7 | 54 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-03 | SHERMAN | L | 1-4 | 27 | 29 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-10 | WAKELAND | L | 1-5 | 0 | 45 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-17 | LEBANON TRAIL | L | 1-6 | 28 | 35 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-23 | REEDY | L | 1-7 | 7 | 45 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-30 | MCKINNEY NORTH | W | 2-7 | 49 | 46 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-06 | CENTENNIAL | L | 2-8 | 20 | 46 | N/A | N/A |
| TOTALS | 10 GMS | 2-8 | 2-8 | 229 | 453 | 328 (1) | 589 (1) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• HER holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.750), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• HER averages 7.0+ yards per play (.667), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• HER commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.500), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• HER holds its opponents under 200 passing yards (.500), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• HER's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 10-game average is 1.7 giveaways per game. (-58%)
• HER holds its opponents under 192.0 rushing yards (HER's own median) (.750)
• HER's defense has averaged 1.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 0.9 takeaways per game. (+50%)
• HER's offense has averaged 40.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 27.8 points scored per game. (+44%)
• HER's offense has averaged 53.5 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 15-game average is 87.4 rush yards per game. (-39%)
• HER's defense has conceded 8.0+ YPA in 3 straight games (10/09/2026-10/22/2026), going 2-1 over that stretch.
• HER's defense has averaged 47.6 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 28-game average is 36.8 points allowed per game. (+30%)
• HER's defense has averaged 11.5 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 8.9 YPA. (+29%)
• HER's offense has averaged 2.8 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 4.0 YPC. (-29%)
• HER's defense has averaged 183.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 241.2 rush yards per game. (-24%)
• HER's offense has averaged 250.0 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 15-game average is 203.1 pass yards per game. (+23%)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
HER -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 6 scored; vs 116 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | DEF | Rush Yds 100+ | 3-5 | .375 | 41.2 | W2 | 0.900 |
| 2 | OFF | Rush Yds < 150 | 2-12 | .143 | 20.7 | W1 | 0.579 |
| 3 | OFF | Rush Yds < 100 | 1-8 | .111 | 19.3 | W1 | 0.516 |
| 4 | DEF | Turnovers < 2 | 2-6 | .250 | 48.2 | W1 | 0.434 |
| 5 | DEF | Turnovers < 3 | 2-6 | .250 | 48.2 | W1 | 0.427 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- HER ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| HER averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards | 2-2 | .500 | 40.8 | W2 |
| HER throws for 200+ yards despite being held under 100 rushing yards | 1-3 | .250 | 33.0 | W1 |
| HER holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards | 3-1 | .750 | 17.8 | W3 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| HER | YPA 8.0+ & Pass Yds 200+ | 2-2 | .500 | 40.8 |
| HER | Pass Yds 200+ & Rush Yds < 100 | 1-3 | .250 | 33.0 |
| HER | Rush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 200 | 3-1 | .750 | 17.8 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 2-3 | .400 | 35.4 | W2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 0-4 | .000 | 14.5 | L4 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-5 | .286 | 33.0 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 0-8 | .000 | 9.1 | L8 | 13 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-5 | .167 | 21.7 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-8 | .111 | 19.3 | W1 | 13 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-1 | .000 | 14.0 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 2-12 | .143 | 20.7 | W1 | 13 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 27.3 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-5 | .167 | 25.5 | W1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-2 | .500 | 40.8 | W2 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-5 | .000 | 14.4 | L5 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 42.0 | W2 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 0-6 | .000 | 18.2 | L6 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-5 | .167 | 24.0 | W1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 2-2 | .500 | 36.5 | W1 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-4 | .000 | 15.5 | L4 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-3 | .000 | 16.0 | L3 | 18 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-5 | .000 | 5.6 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-4 | .000 | 14.5 |
| Scores 20-29 | 1-7 | .125 | 25.8 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-2 | .333 | 33.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 8-0 | 1.000 | 48.2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 2-2 | .500 | 37.5 | W2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 0-3 | .000 | 14.7 | L3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 2-3 | .400 | 34.6 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 0-2 | .000 | 10.5 | L2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 41.0 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-5 | .167 | 25.5 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 2-5 | .286 | 27.7 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 41.0 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-5 | .167 | 25.5 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 45.3 | W2 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-4 | .000 | 14.5 | L4 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 49.5 | W2 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 0-5 | .000 | 19.0 | L5 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-3 | .250 | 25.8 | W1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 2-2 | .500 | 36.5 | W1 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-2 | .000 | 10.5 | L2 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 10.5 | L2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.5 |
| Scores 20-29 | 0-1 | .000 | 24.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 0-1 | .000 | 37.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 51.3 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 2-2 | .500 | 38.0 | W2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 41.6 | L1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-3 | .000 | 55.7 | L3 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-3 | .500 | 32.2 | W2 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-5 | .375 | 41.2 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-1 | .000 | 30.0 | L1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-5 | .000 | 57.8 | L5 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-1 | .750 | 17.8 | W3 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-5 | .167 | 51.5 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 17.0 | W2 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-5 | .167 | 51.5 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 17.0 | W2 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-4 | .200 | 50.6 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 26.8 | W2 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-3 | .400 | 44.4 | W1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-3 | .250 | 46.0 | W1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 20.0 | W1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 20.0 | W1 | 19 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 0.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 5-3 | .625 | 24.1 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-3 | .000 | 34.3 |
| Allows 40+ | 1-12 | .077 | 54.2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 2-2 | .500 | 38.0 | W2 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 36.0 | L1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-3 | .000 | 55.7 | L3 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-1 | .750 | 23.2 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-4 | .429 | 37.1 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-4 | .000 | 54.8 | L4 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 13.7 | W3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-4 | .200 | 47.8 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 10.5 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-4 | .200 | 47.8 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 10.5 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 45.8 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 25.7 | W2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-2 | .500 | 38.0 | W1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-3 | .250 | 46.0 | W1 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 20.0 | W1 | |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 20.0 | W1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 0.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 20-29 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 20.5 |
| Allows 30-39 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 40+ | 0-5 | .000 | 59.0 |
HERITAGE
• HERITAGE has scored 40+ in 2 straight games (10/15/26–10/22/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• HERITAGE has won by 20+ in 2 straight games (10/15/26–10/22/26). It has not won by 20+ in 3 straight since 9/14/23–9/29/23 (2023).
• HERITAGE has scored 30+ in 2 straight games (10/15/26–10/22/26). It has not scored 30+ in 3 straight since 11/1/24–8/29/25 (2025). It has reached 3 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 4 straight (2023) in that span.
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| HER | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 35.4 | W2 |
| HER | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 14.5 | L4 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 33.0 | W1 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 8 | 0-8 | .000 | 9.1 | L8 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 21.7 | W1 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 9 | 1-8 | .111 | 19.3 | W1 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 14.0 | L1 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 14 | 2-12 | .143 | 20.7 | W1 |
| HER | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 27.3 | W1 |
| HER | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 25.5 | W1 |
| HER | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 40.8 | W2 |
| HER | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 14.4 | L5 |
| HER | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 42.0 | W2 |
| HER | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 6 | 0-6 | .000 | 18.2 | L6 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 24.0 | W1 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 36.5 | W1 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 15.5 | L4 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 16.0 | L3 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 5.6 | L5 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 14.5 | L4 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 25.8 | L7 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 33.0 | L2 |
| HER | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 8 | 8-0 | 1.000 | 48.2 | W8 |
| HER | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 38.0 | W2 |
| HER | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 41.6 | L1 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 55.7 | L3 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 32.2 | W2 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 | 3-5 | .375 | 41.2 | W2 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 30.0 | L1 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 57.8 | L5 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 17.8 | W3 |
| HER | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 51.5 | W1 |
| HER | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 17.0 | W2 |
| HER | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 51.5 | W1 |
| HER | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 17.0 | W2 |
| HER | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 50.6 | W1 |
| HER | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 26.8 | W2 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 44.4 | W1 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 46.0 | W1 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 20.0 | W1 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 20.0 | W1 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 0.0 | W2 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W2 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 24.1 | W2 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 34.3 | L3 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 13 | 1-12 | .077 | 54.2 | L6 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/22/2026 | 2-1 |
| DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/22/2026 | 2-1 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| HER | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/22/2026 | 2-1 |
| HER | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/22/2026 | 2-1 |
HER OFFENSE
HER's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 10-game average is 1.7 giveaways per game. (-58%)
HER's offense has averaged 40.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 27.8 points scored per game. (+44%)
HER's offense has averaged 53.5 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 15-game average is 87.4 rush yards per game. (-39%)
HER's offense has averaged 2.8 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 4.0 YPC. (-29%)
HER's offense has averaged 250.0 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 15-game average is 203.1 pass yards per game. (+23%)
HER DEFENSE
HER's defense has averaged 1.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 0.9 takeaways per game. (+50%)
HER's defense has averaged 47.6 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 28-game average is 36.8 points allowed per game. (+30%)
HER's defense has averaged 11.5 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 8.9 YPA. (+29%)
HER's defense has averaged 183.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 241.2 rush yards per game. (-24%)
HER's defense has averaged 215.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 179.1 pass yards per game. (+20%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| HER | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 215.7 | 9 | 179.1 | +20.4% | |
| HER | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 7 | 250.0 | 15 | 203.1 | +23.1% | |
| HER | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 5 | 47.6 | 28 | 36.8 | +29.5% | |
| HER | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 40.0 | 28 | 27.8 | +44.1% | |
| HER | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 183.3 | 9 | 241.2 | -24.0% | |
| HER | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 5 | 53.5 | 15 | 87.4 | -38.8% | |
| HER | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.3 | 9 | 0.9 | +50.0% | |
| HER | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 7 | 0.7 | 10 | 1.7 | -58.0% | |
| HER | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 11.5 | 9 | 8.9 | +29.1% | |
| HER | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 5 | 2.8 | 9 | 4.0 | -29.0% |
