In short: Heritage Patriots high school football (Brentwood, CA), 2026 season: 5-3 in the Bay Valley League. Last game: L 22-33 vs Liberty on October 16, 2026. Next: at Deer Valley, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Heritage's next game, against Deer Valley, and the recent returns favor Heritage. Heritage forced 0.5 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #81 in Section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), the Patriots have forced 1.5 takeaways per game, a 200% rise, #33 in Section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Heritage's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.4 per game, a #66 offense in Section on the season, against 1.2 per game, #53 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Heritage forced 9% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Meanwhile, Deer Valley's ball security has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Wolverines have committed 1.5 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #66 in Section during that time. Those games came against some of the better defenses in Section (1.7 per game on the season, which would rank #29). Against those norms, Deer Valley turned it over 13% less than those defenses usually force. Deer Valley offers Heritage a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
The number to watch when Heritage meets Deer Valley is Heritage's scoring. Heritage averaged 24.0 points per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #53 in Section through those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Patriots have averaged 42.0 points per game, a 75% rise, #15 in Section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Heritage's last 3 opponents have averaged 28.9 points per game, a #75 scoring defense in Section on the season, against 25.4 points per game, #65 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (28.9 points per game), Heritage scored 46% more than those defenses usually allow. Meanwhile, Deer Valley's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Wolverines have allowed 29.7 points per game over their last 3 games (1-2), #74 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in Section (28.4 points per game on the season, which would rank #43). On paper, that is a matchup that favors Heritage. Heritage is 5-1 this season when it scores 19 or more, and 0-2 when it doesn't.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Heritage's season has been the direction of its ball security. Heritage committed 1.0 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #34 in Section within that period. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Patriots have committed 2.0 giveaways per game, a 100% rise, #86 in Section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Heritage's last 4 opponents have averaged 2.0 per game, a #16 defense in Section on the season, against 1.1 per game, #65 for the first 4. On the season, Heritage ranks #72 in Section in giveaways. It won't get any easier against Deer Valley, whose defense ranks #21 in Section (1.9 per game).
Heritage's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Patriots allowed 14.5 points per game over their first 4 games (3-1), #28 in Section during those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), Heritage has allowed 21.0 points per game, a 45% rise, #39 in Section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Heritage's last 4 opponents have averaged 26.6 points per game, a #48 offense in Section on the season, against 21.7 points per game, #68 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (26.6 points per game), Heritage held those offenses 21% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, the Patriots rank #28 in Section in scoring defense. Deer Valley's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #36 in Section (30.0 points per game). Heritage is 5-1 this season when it holds opponents under 30, and 0-2 when it doesn't.
Heritage averaged 5.1 yards per carry (719 yards on 141 rushes) over its first 5 games (3-2), #60 in Section during that stretch. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Patriots have averaged 7.0 yards per carry (718 yards on 102 rushes), a 38% rise, #30 in Section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Heritage's last 3 opponents have averaged 6.8 yards per carry, a #84 run defense in Section on the season, against 5.5 yards per carry, #51 for the first 5. On the season, Heritage ranks #49 in Section in rushing. That form gets a real test against Deer Valley, whose run defense ranks #4 in Section (3.3 yards per carry).
Something changed for Heritage's offense after the first 5 games of the season. The Patriots averaged 6.4 yards per play (1,768 yards on 278 snaps) over their first 5 games (3-2), #59 in Section over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), Heritage has averaged 8.7 yards per play (1,407 yards on 161 snaps), a 37% rise, #15 in Section over that span. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Heritage's last 3 opponents have averaged 7.7 yards per play, a #84 defense in Section on the season, against 6.7 yards per play, #53 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.7 yards per play), Heritage gained 13% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. On the season, the Patriots rank #34 in Section in yards per play. That form gets a real test against Deer Valley, whose defense ranks #2 in Section (4.1 yards per play).
TIDBITS (11 found)
• Club Heritage has gone 16 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 12, 2025 through October 16, 2026), going 6-10 over that stretch, a school-record 16 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Heritage is 16-0 all time when averaging 7.0+ yards per play in the games on file (16 such games).
• Club Heritage is 21-2 all time when rushing for 150+ yards. Heritage's last loss when rushing for 150+ yards was November 22, 2024 against Acalanes (L, 14-34).
• Club Heritage is 21-2 all time when averaging 5.0+ yards per carry. Heritage's last loss when averaging 5.0+ yards per carry was September 29, 2023 against Antioch (L, 17-18).
• Club Heritage has scored 126 points over its last 3 games (42.0 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- its 3rd-highest 3-game total on record; the most is 136, from September 20, 2024 through October 11, 2024.
• Player Jace Torrez has 358 rushing yards over his last 3 games (119.3 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Jace Torrez has 5 rushing touchdowns over his last 3 games (1.7 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Kyle Miller has 8 touchdown passes over his last 3 games (2.7 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Wilson Douglas Brown has 364 receiving yards over his last 3 games (121.3 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Wilson Douglas Brown has 6 touchdown catches over his last 6 games (1.0 a game, September 12, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 6-game stretch since the 6 he had from September 26, 2025 through September 4, 2026.
• Player Nano Perez has gone 2 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
MILESTONE WATCH
Heritage
Kyle Miller needs 114 passing yards for 1,500 (averaging 198.0 a game)
Wilson Douglas Brown needs 1 receiving touchdown for 10 (averaging 1.1 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 23; roster and numbers checked Sep 3.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 6/8, sacks allowed 7/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 70.2/100 (+30 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 36.7/100 (-39 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 61.6/100 (-20 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 60.1/100 (-23 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-30
at
DEER VALLEY
5-3
30.0
2026-11-06
vs
PITTSBURG
5-3
37.4
LAST YEAR
HER finished 2025 at 1-9. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 42-6 over FREEDOM (FREEDOM finished 10% that season). Toughest loss: 15-17 to DEER VALLEY (2-point margin).
HER — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (30 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-7
.000
4.3
Scores 10-19
0-9
.000
15.0
Scores 20-29
3-1
.750
23.2
Scores 30-39
5-0
1.000
33.6
Scores 40+
5-0
1.000
48.8
HER — OFFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
4-2
.667
35.0
L1
YPA < 8.0
1-1
.500
18.0
L1
Pass Yds 200+
3-2
.600
30.2
L1
Pass Yds < 200
2-1
.667
31.7
W1
Rush Yds 100+
5-2
.714
34.3
L1
Rush Yds < 100
0-1
.000
6.0
L1
Rush Yds 150+
5-0
1.000
40.0
W5
Rush Yds < 150
0-3
.000
15.3
L3
YPC 5.0+
5-0
1.000
40.0
W5
YPC < 5.0
0-3
.000
15.3
L3
YPP 6.0+
5-2
.714
34.3
L1
YPP < 6.0
0-1
.000
6.0
L1
YPP 7.0+
4-0
1.000
42.5
W4
YPP < 7.0
1-3
.250
19.0
L3
Turnovers 1+
5-3
.625
30.8
L1
Turnovers < 1
--
--
--
--
Turnovers 2+
0-2
.000
14.0
L2
Turnovers > 2
0-1
.000
6.0
L1
HER — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-1
.000
6.0
Scores 10-19
0-1
.000
18.0
Scores 20-29
0-1
.000
22.0
Scores 30-39
3-0
1.000
32.0
Scores 40+
2-0
1.000
52.0
HER — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (30 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-8
.000
38.9
L8
YPA < 8.0
9-7
.562
17.3
W1
6 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
1-7
.125
39.8
L7
Pass Yds < 200
8-9
.471
17.4
W1
5 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
7-14
.333
25.9
L2
Rush Yds < 100
2-2
.500
17.5
W1
5 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
2-7
.222
24.9
L6
Rush Yds < 150
7-9
.438
24.4
W2
5 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
3-12
.200
26.5
L2
YPC < 5.0
6-4
.600
21.6
W1
5 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
1-13
.071
33.2
L13
YPP < 6.0
8-3
.727
13.5
W3
5 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-8
.000
39.5
L8
YPP < 7.0
9-8
.529
17.5
W1
5 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
12-11
.522
18.6
L1
Turnovers < 1
1-6
.143
33.3
L1
Turnovers 2+
7-6
.538
14.2
L1
Turnovers > 2
4-4
.500
13.0
L1
HER — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (30 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
7-0
1.000
2.9
Allows 10-19
3-4
.429
13.7
Allows 20-29
3-5
.375
24.6
Allows 30-39
0-4
.000
34.2
Allows 40+
0-4
.000
52.5
HER — DEFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-1
.000
33.0
L1
YPA < 8.0
3-2
.600
19.2
W1
2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-1
.000
33.0
L1
Pass Yds < 200
3-2
.600
19.2
W1
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
2-3
.400
20.4
L2
Rush Yds < 100
1-0
1.000
27.0
W1
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
0-2
.000
28.5
L2
Rush Yds < 150
3-1
.750
18.0
W2
2 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
2-3
.400
20.4
L2
YPC < 5.0
1-0
1.000
27.0
W1
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
0-3
.000
30.7
L3
YPP < 6.0
3-0
1.000
12.3
W3
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-1
.000
33.0
L1
YPP < 7.0
3-2
.600
19.2
W1
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
4-2
.667
15.7
L1
Turnovers < 1
1-1
.500
24.0
L1
Turnovers 2+
1-1
.500
16.5
L1
Turnovers > 2
--
--
--
--
HER — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
2-0
1.000
0.0
Allows 10-19
2-0
1.000
11.5
Allows 20-29
1-1
.500
25.5
Allows 30-39
0-2
.000
34.0
Allows 40+
--
--
--
ON THE BRINK
HERITAGE
• HERITAGE has forced 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/9/26–10/16/26). It has not forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight since 10/25/24–11/22/24 (2024). It has reached 3 straight 3 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 5 straight (2024) in that span.
HER's defense has averaged 246.5 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 154.8 pass yards per game. (+59%)
HER's defense has averaged 0.8 takeaways per game over their last 12 games. Their 30-game average is 1.7 takeaways per game. (-50%)
HER's defense has averaged 379.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 25-game average is 296.0 total yards per game. (+28%)
HER's defense has averaged 5.7 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 24-game average is 7.6 YPA. (-25%)
HER's defense has averaged 16.8 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 30-game average is 22.0 points allowed per game. (-24%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where HERITAGE (BRENTWOOD) sits among 109 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 49.6, Defense Grade 64.8.
PASS YARDS / GAME: HERITAGE (BRENTWOOD) VS THE SECTION
HERITAGE (BRENTWOOD) ranks #8 of 81 section teams in passing yards per game (223.7) -- a strength worth a look.
HERITAGE (BRENTWOOD): SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 17.8 in 2022 to 7.7 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
