In short: Healdsburg Greyhounds high school football (Healdsburg, CA), 2026 season: 2-7. Last game: L 13-53 vs Terra Linda on October 23, 2026. Next: at Archie Williams, November 7, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Healdsburg's next game, against Archie Williams, and the recent returns favor Healdsburg. Healdsburg committed 2.0 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #87 in Section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (0-5), the Greyhounds have committed 0.2 giveaways per game, a 90% drop, #3 in Section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Healdsburg's last 5 opponents have averaged 0.9 per game, a #78 defense in Section on the season, against 1.1 per game, #67 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (0.9 per game), Healdsburg turned it over 78% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #71 in Section, well above the first 4 (#105), which makes the improvement more impressive. Conversely, Archie Williams' defense has been one of Section's better units in recent weeks. The Peregrine Falcons have forced 2.5 takeaways per game over their last 5 games (4-1), #7 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in Section (1.2 per game on the season, which would rank #54). Against those norms, Archie Williams forced 107% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #81 in Section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Healdsburg's surging ball security meets one of Section's better units in Archie Williams'.
The number to watch when Healdsburg meets Archie Williams is Healdsburg's scoring. Healdsburg averaged 21.5 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #67 in Section through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), the Greyhounds have averaged 8.0 points per game, a 63% drop, #102 in Section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Healdsburg's last 5 opponents have averaged 17.9 points per game, a #29 scoring defense in Section on the season, against 26.8 points per game, #71 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (17.9 points per game), Healdsburg scored 55% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #71 in Section, well above the first 4 (#105), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Healdsburg was held to 14 points or fewer 4 times in those games, including 0 against Novato on 9/25. Conversely, Archie Williams' defense has been one of Section's better units in recent weeks. The Peregrine Falcons have allowed 4.8 points per game over their last 5 games (4-1), #3 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in Section (19.2 points per game on the season, which would rank #77). Against those norms, Archie Williams held those offenses 75% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #81 in Section, a lower level of competition. Unless Healdsburg's offense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Archie Williams. Healdsburg is 2-2 this season when it scores 13 or more, and 0-5 when it doesn't.
NOTES
Healdsburg's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Healdsburg averaged 7.6 yards per carry (1,354 yards on 178 rushes) on the season, #15 in Section, but that number is boosted by a 429-yard game on 29 rushes against ScorePirate CIF Oakland Section #6 Skyline on 9/11. In all other games, Healdsburg is at 6.2 yards per carry (925 yards on 149 rushes), a figure that would rank #40 in Section. Archie Williams' run defense (7.3 yards per carry, #91 of 110) gives Healdsburg a real chance to look like the season line again.
The biggest worry in Healdsburg's season has been the direction of its defense. The Greyhounds forced 1.5 takeaways per game over their first 4 games (2-2), #38 in Section within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), Healdsburg has forced 0.2 takeaways per game, an 87% drop, #101 in Section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Healdsburg's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.0 per game, a #30 offense in Section on the season, against 2.5 per game, #105 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.0 per game), Healdsburg forced 79% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #71 in Section, well above the first 4 (#105), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Greyhounds rank #83 in Section in takeaways. Archie Williams' ball security sits in the middle of the pack, #79 in Section (1.6 per game).
Healdsburg's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Healdsburg allowed 27.8 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #75 in Section during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (0-5), the Greyhounds have allowed 41.6 points per game, a 50% rise, #104 in Section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Healdsburg's last 5 opponents have averaged 23.0 points per game, a #62 offense in Section on the season, against 8.7 points per game, #102 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.0 points per game), Healdsburg allowed 81% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #71 in Section, well above the first 4 (#105), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Healdsburg ranks #101 in Section in scoring defense. Archie Williams' offense sits in the middle of the pack, #56 in Section (24.2 points per game). Healdsburg is 1-1 this season when it holds opponents under 25, and 1-6 when it doesn't.
TIDBITS (8 found)
• Club Healdsburg has lost 5 straight, and a loss would make it 6 in a row. The last time they lost 6 or more in a row was 2024, a run of 18.
• Club The last time Healdsburg went a game holding the opponent under 6.0 yards per play was September 15, 2023 against Kennedy (L, 20-22). Since then Healdsburg has gone 35 straight games allowing 6.0+ yards per play, a school-record 35 straight in the 6 seasons on record.
• Player Frank Rea has 586 rushing yards over his last 5 games (117.2 a game, September 11, 2026 through October 9, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch on record.
• Player Louie Valencia Iv has 339 rushing yards over his last 3 games (113.0 a game, August 29, 2026 through September 11, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Louie Valencia Iv has gone 2 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Dylan Hayes has gone 2 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 3 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, during the 2025 season.
• Player Frank Rea has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Healdsburg, over a 23-game career on record. His career high is 74, set September 18, 2026 against Ygnacio Valley (W, 35-24).
• Player Dylan Hayes has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Healdsburg, over a 13-game career on record. His career high is 8, set October 9, 2026 against Justin-siena (L, 18-64).
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 9 game; last updated Oct 23; roster and numbers checked Oct 6.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 7/9, defense 4/9, sacks/INT 7/9, sacks allowed 5/9, turnovers 7/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 23.0/100 (-71 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 39.9/100 (-32 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 3.4/100 (+123 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 21.1/100 (+62 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
HEA HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• HEA forces 2+ takeaways (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• HEA averages 7.0+ yards per play (.600), but most recently lost to Justin-siena when doing so
• HEA rushes for 150+ yards (.444), and has won 2 straight when doing so
• HEA averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.500), but most recently lost to Novato when doing so
• HEA's offense has averaged 0.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 1.1 giveaways per game. (-100%)
• HEA's defense has averaged 0.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 0.9 takeaways per game. (-100%)
• HEA's offense has averaged 7.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 23-game average is 137.0 rush yards per game. (-95%)
• HEA's offense has averaged 0.9 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 6.5 YPC. (-86%)
• HEA's offense has averaged 218.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 23-game average is 132.3 pass yards per game. (+65%)
• HEA's defense has averaged 10.4 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 6.4 YPC. (+62%)
• HEA's offense has averaged 8.0 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 28-game average is 19.8 points scored per game. (-60%)
• HEA's defense has averaged 12.8 YPP over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 9.3 YPP. (+37%)
• HEA's offense has averaged 171.7 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 23-game average is 269.3 total yards per game. (-36%)
• HEA's defense has averaged 93.3 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 8-game average is 145.2 rush yards per game. (-36%)
• HEA's defense has averaged 16.1 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 12.1 YPA. (+33%)
HEA — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (28 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-10
.000
4.0
Scores 10-19
0-5
.000
16.4
Scores 20-29
0-4
.000
20.5
Scores 30-39
2-3
.400
34.0
Scores 40+
3-1
.750
45.2
HEA — OFFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
1-1
.500
26.5
L1
YPA < 8.0
1-4
.200
12.0
L2
2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-1
.000
18.0
L1
Pass Yds < 200
2-4
.333
15.8
L2
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
2-2
.500
23.8
L1
Rush Yds < 100
0-3
.000
6.0
L3
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
2-1
.667
28.7
W2
Rush Yds < 150
0-4
.000
6.8
L4
2 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
2-2
.500
21.5
L1
YPC < 5.0
0-3
.000
9.0
L3
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
2-1
.667
32.7
L1
YPP < 6.0
0-4
.000
3.8
L4
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
2-1
.667
32.7
L1
YPP < 7.0
0-4
.000
3.8
L4
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
1-3
.250
12.5
L1
Turnovers < 1
1-2
.333
21.0
L2
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
1-1
.500
17.5
W1
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
0-1
.000
0.0
L1
2 games without this stat on file
HEA — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-5
.000
3.0
Scores 10-19
0-2
.000
15.5
Scores 20-29
--
--
--
Scores 30-39
1-0
1.000
35.0
Scores 40+
1-0
1.000
45.0
HEA — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (28 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
2-6
.250
35.9
L2
YPA < 8.0
--
--
--
--
20 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
2-2
.500
33.2
L1
Pass Yds < 200
0-4
.000
38.5
L4
20 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
0-6
.000
39.5
L6
Rush Yds < 100
2-0
1.000
25.0
W2
20 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
0-3
.000
37.7
L3
Rush Yds < 150
2-3
.400
34.8
L2
20 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
0-6
.000
39.5
L6
YPC < 5.0
2-0
1.000
25.0
W2
20 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
2-6
.250
35.9
L2
YPP < 6.0
--
--
--
--
20 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
2-6
.250
35.9
L2
YPP < 7.0
--
--
--
--
20 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
3-4
.429
31.7
L1
Turnovers < 1
0-4
.000
45.5
L4
17 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
3-0
1.000
25.0
W3
17 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
--
--
--
--
17 games without this stat on file
HEA — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (28 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
0-1
.000
2.0
Allows 10-19
0-1
.000
18.0
Allows 20-29
5-4
.556
25.2
Allows 30-39
0-6
.000
34.8
Allows 40+
0-11
.000
54.9
HEA — DEFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
1-3
.250
36.8
L2
YPA < 8.0
--
--
--
--
5 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
1-1
.500
32.0
L1
Pass Yds < 200
0-2
.000
41.5
L2
5 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
0-3
.000
41.0
L3
Rush Yds < 100
1-0
1.000
24.0
W1
5 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
0-1
.000
34.0
L1
Rush Yds < 150
1-2
.333
37.7
L2
5 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
0-3
.000
41.0
L3
YPC < 5.0
1-0
1.000
24.0
W1
5 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
1-3
.250
36.8
L2
YPP < 6.0
--
--
--
--
5 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
1-3
.250
36.8
L2
YPP < 7.0
--
--
--
--
5 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
2-3
.400
32.0
L1
Turnovers < 1
0-2
.000
52.0
L2
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
2-0
1.000
24.5
W2
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
--
--
--
--
2 games without this stat on file
HEA — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
0-1
.000
2.0
Allows 10-19
--
--
--
Allows 20-29
2-1
.667
25.7
Allows 30-39
0-1
.000
34.0
Allows 40+
0-4
.000
51.5
ON THE BRINK
HEALDSBURG
• HEALDSBURG has been held under 14 in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not been held under 14 in 3 straight since 10/31/25–9/4/26 (2026).
• HEALDSBURG has lost 5 straight (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not lost 6 straight since 9/20/24–9/4/26 (2026). It has reached 6 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has lost a high of 18 straight (2026) in that span.
HEA's defense has averaged 0.0 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 11-game average is 0.9 takeaways per game. (-100%)
HEA's defense has averaged 10.4 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 6.4 YPC. (+62%)
HEA's defense has averaged 12.8 YPP over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 9.3 YPP. (+37%)
HEA's defense has averaged 93.3 rush yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 8-game average is 145.2 rush yards per game. (-36%)
HEA's defense has averaged 16.1 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 12.1 YPA. (+33%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where HEALDSBURG sits among 109 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 36.1, Defense Grade 18.2.
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME: HEALDSBURG VS THE SECTION
HEALDSBURG ranks #70 of 73 section teams in turnover margin per game (-2.50) -- a weakness worth a look.
HEALDSBURG: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- -23.6 in 2022 to -20.9 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
