In short: Grace Community Cougars high school football (Tyler, TX), 2026 season: 5-4. Last game: W 41-7 vs Mckinney Christian Academy on October 23, 2026. Next: at St. John Xxiii, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
| RECORD | 5-4 this season |
| LAST GAME | W 41-7 vs MCKINNEY CHRISTIAN ACADEMY |
| NEXT GAME | ST. JOHN XXIII (10/30/2026) |
| UNIT GRADES | Pass Off 77.5 · Rush Off 47.6 · Pass Def 2.1 · Rush Def 75.1 |
| ENROLLMENT | 998 STUDENTS (2020) |
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRACE COMMUNITY | 77.5 (+51) | 47.6 (-15) | 2.1 (+148) | 75.1 (-55) |
Next: at St. John Xxiii, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Grace Community at St. John Xxiii.
The number to watch when Grace Community meets St. John Xxiii is Grace Community's scoring. Grace Community averaged 27.0 points per game over its first 3 games (0-3), #646 in section in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), the Cougars have averaged 41.2 points per game, a 52% rise, #239 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Grace Community's last 6 opponents have averaged 26.2 points per game, a #510 scoring defense in section on the season, against 23.8 points per game, #398 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (26.2 points per game), Grace Community scored 57% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #589 in section, well below the first 3 (#219), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, St. John Xxiii's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Lions have allowed 41.5 points per game over their last 6 games (0-6), #1015 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (34.1 points per game on the season, which would rank #426). Against those norms, St. John Xxiii allowed 22% more than those offenses usually score. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Grace Community.
The biggest shift in Grace Community's season has come in its defense. Grace Community allowed 47.4 points per game over its first 5 games (2-3), #1176 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), the Cougars have allowed 26.2 points per game, a 45% drop, #522 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Grace Community's last 4 opponents have averaged 33.0 points per game, a #464 offense in section on the season, against 39.2 points per game, #260 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (33.0 points per game), Grace Community held those offenses 20% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #627 in section, well below the first 5 (#331), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Brook Hill broke through in that span, putting up 64 on 10/16. On the season, Grace Community ranks #970 in section in scoring defense. The trend lines up well against St. John Xxiii, whose offense ranks just #1232 of 1235 (1.6 points per game).
The Cougars allowed 14.9 yards per pass attempt (1,131 yards on 76 attempts) over their first 5 games (2-3), #1198 in section over that stretch. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), Grace Community has allowed 9.3 yards per pass attempt (774 yards on 83 attempts), a 37% drop, #766 in section within that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Grace Community's last 4 opponents have averaged 9.7 yards per attempt, a #239 passing attack in section on the season, against 12.1 yards per attempt, #58 for the first 5. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #627 in section, well below the first 5 (#331), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Cougars rank #1148 in section in pass defense. The trend lines up well against St. John Xxiii, whose passing game ranks just #1005 of 1032 (3.1 yards per attempt).
• Club The last time Grace Community went a game rushing for 150+ yards was August 30, 2024 against Queen City (W, 38-26). Since then Grace Community has gone 30 straight games being held under 150 rushing yards, a school-record 30 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club The last time Grace Community went a game averaging 5.0+ yards per carry was August 30, 2024 against Queen City (W, 38-26). Since then Grace Community has gone 30 straight games being held under 5.0 yards per carry, a school-record 30 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club The last time Grace Community went a game holding the opponent under 200 passing yards was November 16, 2024 against Midland Christian (L, 29-34). Since then Grace Community has gone 20 straight games allowing 200+ passing yards, a school-record 20 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Grace Community is 17-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (17 such games).
DATA WARNING: GRACE COMMUNITY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME @ MKCA* MISSING
DATA WARNING: GRACE COMMUNITY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/16/2026 GAME VS. BROOK HILL* MISSING
DATA WARNING: GRACE COMMUNITY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/09/2026 GAME @ BISHOP DUNNE* MISSING
DATA WARNING: GRACE COMMUNITY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/02/2026 GAME VS. GRACE PREP* MISSING
DATA WARNING: GRACE COMMUNITY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/25/2026 GAME @ SHELBYVILLE MISSING
DATA WARNING: GRACE COMMUNITY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/18/2026 GAME VS. NEW BOSTON MISSING
DATA WARNING: GRACE COMMUNITY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/11/2026 GAME @ TROUP MISSING
DATA WARNING: GRACE COMMUNITY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/03/2026 GAME VS. TIMPSON MISSING
DATA WARNING: GRACE COMMUNITY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 08/28/2026 GAME @ FIRST BAPTIST MISSING
All stat areas in this report are subject to change as box scores are updated.
PROGRAM RECORD
| SEASON | RECORD | PF | PA | PPG |
| 2022 | 7-2 | 318 | 224 | 35.3 |
| 2023 | 8-2 | 431 | 258 | 43.1 |
| 2024 | 7-4 | 279 | 253 | 25.4 |
| 2025 | 3-8 | 240 | 402 | 21.8 |
| 2026 | 5-4 | 328 | 342 | 36.4 |
| 2022-26 | 30-20 | 31.9 |
| DATE | OPPONENT | SITE | RESULT | SCORE | WIN% |
| 08/28 | FIRST BAPTIST | at | L | 26-44 | |
| 09/03 | TIMPSON | vs | L | 34-40 | |
| 09/11 | TROUP | at | L | 21-70 | |
| 09/18 | NEW BOSTON | vs | W | 55-48 | |
| 09/25 | SHELBYVILLE | at | W | 42-35 | |
| 10/02 | GRACE PREP | vs | W | 39-21 | |
| 10/09 | BISHOP DUNNE | at | W | 42-13 | |
| 10/16 | BROOK HILL | vs | L | 28-64 | |
| 10/23 | MCKINNEY CHRISTIAN ACADEMY | at | W | 41-7 | |
| 10/30 | ST. JOHN XXIII | at | PROJ | 50-7 | 98.4% |
| SEASON TO DATE | 5-4 | 1 REMAINING |
SEASON OUTLOOK
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 1)
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 5-4 so far | 6-4 (98%) | 6.0-4.0 |
| League | 3-1 so far | 3-1 (100%) | 3.0-1.0 |
| SPLIT | GP | PPG | OPP PPG | YPG | OPP YPG | PLAYS/G | OPP PLAYS/G |
| OVERALL | 9 | 36.4 | 38.0 | -- | 443.0 | -- | 49.5 |
| HOME | 4 | 39.0 | 43.2 | -- | 463.0 | -- | 52.0 |
| ROAD | 5 | 34.4 | 33.8 | -- | 433.0 | -- | 48.2 |
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Box-score coverage behind YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME: Overall 0/9 game(s), Home 0/4 game(s), Road 0/5 game(s).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | TOTAL YDS | PASS ALW | RUSH ALW | TOTAL ALW | SACKS ALW | SACKS | DEF INT | TO FORCED | TO MAR |
| 8/28 | @ First Baptist | L 26-44 | -- | -- | -- | 378 | 104 | 482 | 8 | -- | -- | 3 | -3 |
| 9/3 | vs. Timpson | L 34-40 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 9/11 | @ Troup | L 21-70 | -- | -- | -- | 404 | 149 | 553 | 2 | -- | -- | 0 | -2 |
| 9/18 | vs. New Boston | W 55-48 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 9/25 | @ Shelbyville | W 42-35 | -- | -- | -- | 349 | 103 | 452 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | 0 |
| 10/2 | vs. Grace Prep | W 39-21 | -- | -- | -- | 360 | 55 | 415 | -- | -- | -- | 2 | -2 |
| 10/9 | @ Bishop Dunne | W 42-13 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 10/16 | vs. Brook Hill | L 28-64 | -- | -- | -- | 210 | 301 | 511 | -- | -- | -- | 0 | -4 |
| 10/23 | @ MKCA | W 41-7 | -- | -- | -- | 204 | 41 | 245 | -- | -- | -- | 3 | +2 |
| AVERAGES | -- | -- | -- | 317.5 | 125.5 | 443.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | 1.7 | -9 (season) |
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 0/9, defense 6/9, sacks/INT 0/9, sacks allowed 2/9, turnovers 6/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 77.5/100 (+51 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 47.6/100 (-15 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 2.1/100 (+148 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 75.1/100 (-55 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
| DATE | SITE | OPPONENT | THEIR RECORD | THEIR PPG |
| 2026-10-30 | at | ST. JOHN XXIII | 0-9 | 1.6 |
LAST YEAR
GC finished 2025 at 3-8. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 33-14 over BRENTWOOD CHRISTIAN (BRENTWOOD CHRISTIAN finished 40% that season). Toughest loss: 35-42 to FIRST BAPTIST (7-point margin).
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | RECORD | PF | PA | TOT YDS | YDS ALLOWED |
| 2025-08-29 | QUEEN CITY | W | 1-0 | 35 | 26 | N/A | 352 |
| 2025-09-04 | FIRST BAPTIST | L | 1-1 | 35 | 42 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-12 | PITTSBURG | L | 1-2 | 0 | 45 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-19 | NEW BOSTON | L | 1-3 | 14 | 35 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-26 | BRENTWOOD CHRISTIAN | W | 2-3 | 33 | 14 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-03 | BROOK HILL | L | 2-4 | 10 | 44 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-09 | REGENTS | L | 2-5 | 7 | 56 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-24 | HYDE PARK | L | 2-6 | 20 | 28 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-10-31 | GRACE PREP | L | 2-7 | 34 | 55 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-07 | BISHOP DUNNE | W | 3-7 | 46 | 6 | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-11-14 | THE WOODLANDS CHRISTIAN ACADEMY | L | 3-8 | 6 | 51 | N/A | N/A |
| TOTALS | 11 GMS | 3-8 | 3-8 | 240 | 402 | N/A | 352 (1) |
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
• GC holds its opponents under 100 rushing yards (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• GC holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• GC commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• GC forces 1+ takeaways (.800), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• GC's defense has averaged 8.9 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 5.9 YPC. (+52%)
• GC's offense has averaged 38.4 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 31-game average is 27.3 points scored per game. (+41%)
• GC's defense has averaged 15.5 YPA over their last 7 games. Their 10-game average is 11.7 YPA. (+33%)
• GC's defense has averaged 11.4 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 9.0 YPP. (+27%)
• GC's defense has averaged 125.0 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 10-game average is 164.1 rush yards per game. (-24%)
• GC's defense has averaged 39.3 points allowed per game over their last 10 games. Their 31-game average is 32.2 points allowed per game. (+22%)
• GC's defense has averaged 305.4 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 10-game average is 252.9 pass yards per game. (+21%)
• GC holds its opponents under 126.5 rushing yards (GC's own median) (.800)
• GC holds its opponents under 4.9 yards per carry (GC's own median) (.800)
• GC holds its opponents under 10.4 yards per attempt (GC's own median) (.800)
• GC holds its opponents under 7.7 yards per play (GC's own median) (.800)
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
GC -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 2 of 2 scored; vs 1098 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Turnovers 1+ | 5-4 | .556 | 30.8 | W1 | 0.635 |
| 2 | DEF | YPP 6+ | 4-4 | .500 | 39.2 | L1 | 0.365 |
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- GC ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| GC holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 | W3 |
| GC holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards while forcing 2+ takeaways | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 | W3 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| GC | YPC < 5.0 & Rush Yds < 150 | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 |
| GC | Rush Yds < 150 & Turnovers 2+ | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 | 30 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 30 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-0 | 1.000 | 27.0 | W2 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 29 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 | 29 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 | 29 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 | 29 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 | 29 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 5-4 | .556 | 30.8 | W1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 3-4 | .429 | 28.7 | L1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-2 | .333 | 31.0 | L1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-4 | .000 | 3.2 |
| Scores 10-19 | 1-3 | .250 | 13.8 |
| Scores 20-29 | 3-6 | .333 | 25.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 5-3 | .625 | 35.8 |
| Scores 40+ | 6-0 | 1.000 | 44.7 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPA < 8.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPC < 5.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPP < 6.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| YPP < 7.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-3 | .500 | 32.8 | W1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-3 | .400 | 31.2 | L1 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-2 | .333 | 31.0 | L1 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 20-29 | 0-3 | .000 | 25.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-1 | .500 | 36.5 |
| Scores 40+ | 4-0 | 1.000 | 45.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-3 | .500 | 44.2 | L1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 19.2 | W2 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 4-3 | .571 | 38.1 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-1 | .667 | 25.0 | L1 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-4 | .429 | 41.1 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 18.0 | W3 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 2-2 | .500 | 34.8 | L2 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 4-2 | .667 | 33.8 | W3 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-3 | .400 | 41.8 | L3 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 | W3 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 4-4 | .500 | 39.2 | L1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W2 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 3-4 | .429 | 41.1 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 18.0 | W3 | 21 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 | W3 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-2 | .333 | 53.3 | L2 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 | W3 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 2-1 | .667 | 25.7 | W1 | 23 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 3.8 |
| Allows 10-19 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 4-2 | .667 | 25.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 2-2 | .500 | 34.8 |
| Allows 40+ | 1-12 | .077 | 49.8 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 53.2 | L1 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W2 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 3-3 | .500 | 40.2 | W1 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-3 | .250 | 53.2 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W2 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-1 | .000 | 64.0 | L1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 3-2 | .600 | 35.4 | W3 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 0-2 | .000 | 67.0 | L2 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 3-1 | .750 | 26.8 | W3 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 53.2 | L1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W2 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 53.2 | L1 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W2 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-1 | .750 | 26.8 | W3 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-2 | .000 | 67.0 | L2 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 2+ | 3-1 | .750 | 26.8 | W3 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 25.5 | W1 | 3 games without this stat on file |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 21.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 35.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 1-4 | .200 | 53.2 |
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| GC | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 27.0 | W2 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 16.0 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 9 | 5-4 | .556 | 30.8 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 28.7 | L1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 31.0 | L1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 3.2 | L4 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 13.8 | L2 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 9 | 3-6 | .333 | 25.0 | L5 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 35.8 | W1 |
| GC | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 6 | 6-0 | 1.000 | 44.7 | W6 |
| GC | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 44.2 | L1 |
| GC | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 19.2 | W2 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 38.1 | W1 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 25.0 | L1 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 41.1 | L1 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 18.0 | W3 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 34.8 | L2 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 33.8 | W3 |
| GC | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 41.8 | L3 |
| GC | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 | W3 |
| GC | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 8 | 4-4 | .500 | 39.2 | L1 |
| GC | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W2 |
| GC | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 7 | 3-4 | .429 | 41.1 | L1 |
| GC | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 18.0 | W3 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 | W3 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 53.3 | L2 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 26.6 | W3 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 25.7 | W1 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 5 | 5-0 | 1.000 | 3.8 | W5 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 14.0 | W3 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 25.0 | W1 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 34.8 | W1 |
| GC | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 13 | 1-12 | .077 | 49.8 | L1 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
GC OFFENSE
GC's offense has averaged 38.4 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 31-game average is 27.3 points scored per game. (+41%)
GC DEFENSE
GC's defense has averaged 8.9 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 5.9 YPC. (+52%)
GC's defense has averaged 15.5 YPA over their last 7 games. Their 10-game average is 11.7 YPA. (+33%)
GC's defense has averaged 11.4 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 9.0 YPP. (+27%)
GC's defense has averaged 125.0 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 10-game average is 164.1 rush yards per game. (-24%)
GC's defense has averaged 39.3 points allowed per game over their last 10 games. Their 31-game average is 32.2 points allowed per game. (+22%)
GC's defense has averaged 305.4 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 10-game average is 252.9 pass yards per game. (+21%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| GC | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 7 | 305.4 | 10 | 252.9 | +20.8% | |
| GC | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 10 | 39.3 | 31 | 32.2 | +22.2% | |
| GC | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 5 | 38.4 | 31 | 27.3 | +40.5% | |
| GC | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 5 | 125.0 | 10 | 164.1 | -23.8% | |
| GC | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 7 | 15.5 | 10 | 11.7 | +32.7% | |
| GC | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 8.9 | 10 | 5.9 | +51.6% | |
| GC | DEFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 11.4 | 10 | 9.0 | +27.0% |
From the games on file through Oct 23.
