In short: Frazier Mountain Falcons high school football (Lebec, CA), 2026 season: 2-7 in the Hi-Lo (8 Man) League. Last game: L 0-36 vs Trona on October 24, 2026. Next: vs Mojave, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Frazier Mountain's next game, against Mojave, and the recent returns favor Frazier Mountain. Frazier Mountain forced 1.5 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #147 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (1-4), the Falcons have forced 3.3 takeaways per game, a 122% rise, #5 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.9 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.9 per game), Frazier Mountain forced 78% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #312 in CIF-SS. Conversely, Mojave's ball security has been one of CIF-SS's better units in recent weeks. The Mustangs have committed 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 5 games (2-3), #114 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against some of the better defenses in CIF-SS (1.6 per game on the season, which would rank #130). Against those norms, Mojave turned it over 36% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #306 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Frazier Mountain's surging defense meets one of CIF-SS's better units in Mojave's.
The number to watch when Frazier Mountain meets Mojave is Frazier Mountain's scoring. Frazier Mountain averaged 8.4 points per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #378 in CIF-SS through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Falcons have averaged 14.5 points per game, a 73% rise, #322 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Frazier Mountain's last 4 opponents have averaged 33.6 points per game, a #345 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 20.2 points per game, #149 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (33.6 points per game), Frazier Mountain scored 57% less than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #337 in CIF-SS, well below the first 5 (#258), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Mojave's defense has been one of CIF-SS's better units in recent weeks. The Mustangs have allowed 19.0 points per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #132 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in CIF-SS (27.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #160). Against those norms, Mojave held those offenses 31% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #294 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Frazier Mountain's surging offense meets one of CIF-SS's better units in Mojave's.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Frazier Mountain's season has been the direction of its defense. Frazier Mountain allowed 27.0 points per game over its first 6 games (2-4), #268 in CIF-SS within that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Falcons have allowed 36.7 points per game, a 36% rise, #331 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 3 opponents have been softer, averaging 27.9 points per game, a #156 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 31.3 points per game, #112 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.9 points per game), Frazier Mountain allowed 31% more than those offenses usually score. On the season, Frazier Mountain ranks #309 in CIF-SS in scoring defense. Mojave's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #237 in CIF-SS (22.9 points per game). Frazier Mountain is 1-1 this season when it holds opponents under 23, and 1-6 when it doesn't.
TIDBITS (1 found)
• Club Frazier Mountain has lost 3 straight, and a loss would make it 4 in a row. The last time they lost 4 or more in a row was 2026, a run of 4.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Frazier Mountain has played a softer-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#313 of 405), and what is left is a softer-than-average slate (#303 of 383).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#313 of 405
avg opponent rating -6.2 over 9 games · 0 vs top-25 CIF-SS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#303 of 383
avg opponent rating -8.5 over 1 games · 0 vs top-25
Maricopa W 36-34@Alpaugh L 0-28@Desert L 6-30Immanuel… L 0-50@Mammoth L 0-2@Lone Pine W 20-18@Cuyama V… L 12-36Tehillah… L 26-38@Trona L 0-36Mojave
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
MILESTONE WATCH
Frazier Mountain
Ely Barahona needs 2 sacks for 5 (averaging 3.0 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Aug 28 game; last updated Oct 28; roster and numbers checked Sep 22.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (offense 1/9, defense 7/9, sacks/INT 1/9, sacks allowed 7/9, turnovers 7/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 39.4/100 (-37 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 82.3/100 (+77 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 22.0/100 (+39 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 37.0/100 (+23 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-30
vs
MOJAVE
2-7
22.9
LAST YEAR
FM finished 2023 at 2-0. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 63-0 over KERN RESOURCE CENTER (KERN RESOURCE CENTER finished 29% that season).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
FM HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• FM forces 2+ takeaways (.500), but most recently lost to Tca when doing so
• FM wins even while allowing its opponents 8.0+ yards per attempt (.333), but most recently lost to Tca when doing so
• FM commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.333), but most recently lost to Immanuel Christian when doing so
• FM wins even while allowing its opponents 150+ rushing yards (.333), but most recently lost to Trona when doing so
• FM's defense has averaged 245.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 165.9 rush yards per game. (+48%)
• FM's defense has averaged 3.3 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 2.3 takeaways per game. (+46%)
• FM is 2-1 (.667) in games decided by 8 points or fewer
• FM's defense has averaged 184.7 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 127.6 pass yards per game. (+45%)
• FM holds its opponents under 6.6 yards per carry (FM's own median) (.667)
• FM is 2-1 (.667) when it wins the turnover battle
• FM's defense has averaged 376.7 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 293.4 total yards per game. (+28%)
• FM wins even while allowing its opponents 7.0+ yards per attempt (FM's own median) (.500)
• FM wins even while allowing its opponents 120.0+ passing yards (FM's own median) (.500)
• FM's defense has averaged 9.8 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 7.9 YPA. (+24%)
• FM's defense has averaged 36.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 30.2 points allowed per game. (+21%)
FM — OFFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
1-0
1.000
36.0
W1
YPA < 8.0
--
--
--
--
8 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
--
--
--
--
Pass Yds < 200
1-0
1.000
36.0
W1
8 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
1-0
1.000
36.0
W1
Rush Yds < 100
--
--
--
--
8 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
1-0
1.000
36.0
W1
Rush Yds < 150
--
--
--
--
8 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
1-0
1.000
36.0
W1
YPC < 5.0
--
--
--
--
8 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
1-0
1.000
36.0
W1
YPP < 6.0
--
--
--
--
8 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
1-0
1.000
36.0
W1
YPP < 7.0
--
--
--
--
8 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
2-5
.286
12.6
L2
Turnovers < 1
--
--
--
--
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
1-3
.250
13.0
L2
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
0-1
.000
6.0
L1
2 games without this stat on file
FM — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-5
.000
1.2
Scores 10-19
0-1
.000
12.0
Scores 20-29
1-1
.500
23.0
Scores 30-39
1-0
1.000
36.0
Scores 40+
--
--
--
FM — DEFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
1-2
.333
35.3
L1
YPA < 8.0
1-3
.250
32.0
L3
2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
1-0
1.000
18.0
W1
Pass Yds < 200
1-5
.167
36.0
L5
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
1-5
.167
36.0
L5
Rush Yds < 100
1-0
1.000
18.0
W1
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
1-2
.333
36.0
L2
Rush Yds < 150
1-3
.250
31.5
W1
2 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
1-5
.167
36.0
L5
YPC < 5.0
1-0
1.000
18.0
W1
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
2-4
.333
34.0
L2
YPP < 6.0
0-1
.000
30.0
L1
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
1-4
.200
34.0
L2
YPP < 7.0
1-1
.500
32.0
L1
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
2-4
.333
33.0
L1
Turnovers < 1
0-1
.000
36.0
L1
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
2-2
.500
30.0
L1
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
1-1
.500
28.0
L1
2 games without this stat on file
FM — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
0-1
.000
2.0
Allows 10-19
1-0
1.000
18.0
Allows 20-29
0-1
.000
28.0
Allows 30-39
1-4
.200
34.8
Allows 40+
0-1
.000
50.0
ON THE BRINK
FRAZIER MOUNTAIN
• FRAZIER MOUNTAIN has allowed 200+ rushing in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/24/26). Earlier games have no box score on file, so the run may be longer. It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• FRAZIER MOUNTAIN has allowed 30+ in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/24/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• FRAZIER MOUNTAIN has committed 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/24/26). Earlier games have no box score on file, so the run may be longer. It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• FRAZIER MOUNTAIN has lost 3 straight (10/9/26–10/24/26). It has not lost 4 straight since 9/4/26–9/25/26 (2026).
FM's defense has averaged 245.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 165.9 rush yards per game. (+48%)
FM's defense has averaged 3.3 takeaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 2.3 takeaways per game. (+46%)
FM's defense has averaged 184.7 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 127.6 pass yards per game. (+45%)
FM's defense has averaged 376.7 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 293.4 total yards per game. (+28%)
FM's defense has averaged 9.8 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 7.9 YPA. (+24%)
FM's defense has averaged 36.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 30.2 points allowed per game. (+21%)
FM's defense has averaged 6.4 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 8.1 YPC. (-21%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where FRAZIER MOUNTAIN sits among 399 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 63.0, Defense Grade 67.0.
YARDS / ATTEMPT: FRAZIER MOUNTAIN VS THE SECTION
FRAZIER MOUNTAIN ranks #17 of 354 section teams in yards per attempt (13.57) -- a strength worth a look.
FRAZIER MOUNTAIN: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 2 seasons on file -- 1.7 in 2023 to -23.9 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
