Next: vs Atlantic Coast, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Atlantic Coast at Fletcher.

The number to watch when Fletcher meets Atlantic Coast is Fletcher's scoring defense. Fletcher allowed 15.2 points per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #141 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), the Senators have allowed 32.5 points per game, a 114% rise, #425 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Fletcher's last 4 opponents have averaged 31.9 points per game, a #132 offense in section on the season, against 24.2 points per game, #264 for the first 5. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #66 in section, well above the first 5 (#159), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Atlantic Coast's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Stingrays have averaged 6.5 points per game over their last 4 games (0-4), #510 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in section (19.9 points per game on the season, which would rank #227). Against those norms, Atlantic Coast scored 67% less than those defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Fletcher is 2-0 this season when it holds opponents under 9, and 2-5 when it doesn't.

The turnover battle could decide Fletcher's next game, against Atlantic Coast, and the recent returns favor Fletcher. Fletcher committed 2.2 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #436 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (1-4), the Senators have committed 0.4 giveaways per game, an 82% drop, #27 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fletcher's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.1 per game, a #390 defense in section on the season, against 1.8 per game, #152 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.1 per game), Fletcher turned it over 62% less than those defenses usually force. Meanwhile, Atlantic Coast's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Stingrays have forced 0.4 takeaways per game over their last 5 games (0-5), #500 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (1.4 per game on the season, which would rank #337). Against those norms, Atlantic Coast forced 72% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Fletcher.

The biggest worry in Fletcher's season has been the direction of its run defense. Fletcher allowed 3.7 yards per carry (318 yards on 87 rushes) over its first 4 games (3-1), #77 in section within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Senators have allowed 7.3 yards per carry (733 yards on 100 rushes), a 101% rise, #417 in section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.6 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.5 yards per carry), Fletcher allowed 33% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #111 in section. On the season, Fletcher ranks #251 in section in run defense. Atlantic Coast's ground game, #524 of 532 (1.1 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Fletcher needs.

Fletcher's defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Senators allowed 5.8 yards per play (1,208 yards on 208 snaps) over their first 4 games (3-1), #183 in section during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), Fletcher has allowed 8.6 yards per play (1,523 yards on 177 snaps), a 48% rise, #433 in section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.7 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.5 yards per play), Fletcher allowed 33% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #111 in section. On the season, the Senators rank #320 in section in yards per play allowed. Atlantic Coast's offense, #521 of 532 (2.6 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Fletcher needs.

Something changed for Fletcher's passing game after the first 6 games of the season. Fletcher averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt (784 yards on 107 attempts) over its first 6 games (4-2), #281 in section during that stretch. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (0-3), the Senators have averaged 11.1 yards per pass attempt (852 yards on 77 attempts), a 51% rise, #95 in section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fletcher's last 3 opponents have averaged 9.3 yards per attempt, a #415 pass defense in section on the season, against 6.9 yards per attempt, #151 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.3 yards per attempt), Fletcher threw for 19% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. On the season, Fletcher ranks #159 in section in passing. Atlantic Coast's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #287 in section (8.1 yards per attempt).

One of Fletcher's shakiest areas lately has been its pass defense. The Senators allowed 7.4 yards per pass attempt (890 yards on 121 attempts) over their first 4 games (3-1), #237 in section over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), Fletcher has allowed 10.3 yards per pass attempt (790 yards on 77 attempts), a 39% rise, #437 in section over that span. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 5 opponents have been softer, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt, a #297 passing attack in section on the season, against 8.3 yards per attempt, #219 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.3 yards per attempt), Fletcher allowed 40% more per attempt than those passing attacks usually gain. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #111 in section. On the season, the Senators rank #335 in section in pass defense. Atlantic Coast's passing game, #502 of 527 (4.1 yards per attempt), could be the get-right matchup Fletcher needs.

Fletcher's offense has gone quiet as the season has progressed. Fletcher averaged 35.8 points per game over its first 5 games (4-1), #70 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (0-4), the Senators have averaged 23.8 points per game, a 34% drop, #277 in section in that window. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 23.2 points per game, a #303 scoring defense in section on the season, against 20.5 points per game, #240 for the first 5. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #66 in section, well above the first 5 (#159), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Fletcher ranks #156 in section in scoring. Atlantic Coast's defense, #485 of 562 (35.2 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Fletcher needs. Fletcher is 2-0 this season when it scores 36 or more, and 2-5 when it doesn't.