Next: vs Slippery Rock, Sat 31 Oct. Matchup report: Slippery Rock at Fairview.

The battle on the ground could decide Fairview's next game, against Slippery Rock, and the recent returns favor Fairview. Fairview averaged 3.6 yards per carry (360 yards on 99 rushes) over its first 4 games (2-2), #342 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (3-2), the Tigers have averaged 5.4 yards per carry (938 yards on 174 rushes), a 48% rise, #203 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairview's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.6 yards per carry, a #409 run defense in section on the season, against 6.1 yards per carry, #362 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.6 yards per carry), Fairview ran for 18% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #369 in section. Meanwhile, Slippery Rock's run defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Rockets have allowed 10.2 yards per carry (1,455 yards on 143 rushes) over their last 5 games (0-5), #517 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the better rushing attacks in section (7.8 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #52). Against those norms, Slippery Rock allowed 30% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #79 in section, a strong slate. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Fairview.

The number to watch when Fairview meets Slippery Rock is Fairview's giveaways. Fairview committed 2.5 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #481 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (3-2), the Tigers have committed 1.6 giveaways per game, a 36% drop, #353 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairview's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.2 per game, a #274 defense in section on the season, against 1.7 per game, #138 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.2 per game), Fairview turned it over 31% more than those defenses usually force. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #369 in section. Meanwhile, Slippery Rock's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Rockets have forced 0.6 takeaways per game over their last 5 games (0-5), #410 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (1.2 per game on the season, which would rank #241). Against those norms, Slippery Rock forced 49% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #79 in section, a strong slate. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Fairview.

The biggest worry in Fairview's season has been the direction of its run defense. Fairview allowed 4.0 yards per carry (468 yards on 118 rushes) over its first 3 games (2-1), #127 in section within that period. In the 6 games since that hot start (3-3), the Tigers have allowed 5.4 yards per carry (906 yards on 169 rushes), a 35% rise, #254 in section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.3 yards per carry on the season. On the season, Fairview ranks #183 in section in run defense. Slippery Rock's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #192 in section (5.7 yards per carry).

The Tigers allowed 8.6 yards per pass attempt (828 yards on 96 attempts) over their first 6 games (3-3), #368 in section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), Fairview has allowed 5.6 yards per pass attempt (485 yards on 86 attempts), a 35% drop, #141 in section during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairview's last 3 opponents have averaged 6.9 yards per attempt, a #242 passing attack in section on the season, against 7.5 yards per attempt, #203 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per attempt), Fairview held those passing attacks 19% below their usual yards per attempt. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #440 in section, well below the first 6 (#315), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Tigers rank #247 in section in pass defense. That form gets a real test against Slippery Rock, whose passing game ranks #102 in section (9.0 yards per attempt).

Fairview's defense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. Fairview allowed 30.8 points per game over its first 6 games (3-3), #443 in section during that stretch. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Tigers have allowed 21.7 points per game, a 30% drop, #258 in section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairview's last 3 opponents have averaged 23.7 points per game, a #263 offense in section on the season, against 27.1 points per game, #189 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.7 points per game), Fairview held those offenses 9% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #440 in section, well below the first 6 (#315), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Fairview ranks #379 in section in scoring defense. Slippery Rock's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #328 in section (20.9 points per game). Fairview is 4-0 this season when it holds opponents under 21, and 1-4 when it doesn't.

Something changed for Fairview's offense after the first 6 games of the season. The Tigers averaged 5.5 yards per play (1,727 yards on 315 snaps) over their first 6 games (3-3), #275 in section over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), Fairview has averaged 6.9 yards per play (1,175 yards on 170 snaps), a 26% rise, #141 in section over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.2 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.3 yards per play), Fairview gained 6% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #440 in section, well below the first 6 (#315), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Tigers rank #235 in section in yards per play. The trend lines up well against Slippery Rock, whose defense ranks just #478 of 559 (8.2 yards per play).

One of Fairview's most reliable areas lately has been its offense. Fairview averaged 27.3 points per game over its first 6 games (3-3), #193 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Tigers have averaged 33.7 points per game, a 23% rise, #139 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Fairview's last 3 opponents have averaged 32.7 points per game, a #465 scoring defense in section on the season, against 29.2 points per game, #403 for the first 6. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #440 in section, well below the first 6 (#315), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Fairview ranks #148 in section in scoring. The trend lines up well against Slippery Rock, whose defense ranks just #513 of 563 (37.3 points per game). Fairview is 5-0 this season when it scores 38 or more, and 0-4 when it doesn't.