Next: at Ironwood, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Dobson at Ironwood.

The battle on the air could decide Dobson's next game, against Ironwood, and the recent returns favor Ironwood. Dobson allowed 5.6 yards per pass attempt (399 yards on 71 attempts) over its first 3 games (2-1), #50 in section in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (2-4), the Mustangs have allowed 11.5 yards per pass attempt (1,509 yards on 131 attempts), a 105% rise, #219 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Dobson's last 6 opponents have averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, a #72 passing attack in section on the season, against 6.3 yards per attempt, #162 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.1 yards per attempt), Dobson allowed 27% more per attempt than those passing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #100 in section, well above the first 3 (#188), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Ironwood's passing game has struggled in recent weeks. The Eagles have averaged 4.8 yards per pass attempt (472 yards on 99 attempts) over their last 6 games (3-3), #194 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of pass defenses in section (8.4 yards per attempt on the season, which would rank #141). Against those norms, Ironwood threw for 43% less per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.

The number to watch when Dobson meets Ironwood is Dobson's scoring defense. Dobson allowed 23.8 points per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #123 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Mustangs have allowed 45.0 points per game, an 89% rise, #233 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Dobson's last 5 opponents have averaged 35.6 points per game, a #59 offense in section on the season, against 18.0 points per game, #186 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (35.6 points per game), Dobson allowed 27% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #88 in section, well above the first 4 (#184), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Meanwhile, Ironwood's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Eagles have averaged 26.0 points per game over their last 5 games (2-3), #124 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker scoring defenses in section (31.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #183). Against those norms, Ironwood scored 18% less than those defenses usually allow. Ironwood offers Dobson a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Dobson is 3-0 this season when it holds opponents under 24, and 1-5 when it doesn't.

Dobson's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Dobson averaged 6.9 yards per carry (1,699 yards on 247 rushes) on the season, #70 in section, but that number is boosted by a 530-yard game on 44 rushes against Paradise Valley on 10/16. In all other games, Dobson is at 5.8 yards per carry (1,169 yards on 203 rushes), a figure that would rank #118 in section. Context matters here: Paradise Valley's run defense ranks among the weakest in section (8.1 yards per carry, #198 of 251), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Against Ironwood, Dobson draws a middle-of-the-pack run defense (5.9 yards per carry, #114), so expect something closer to the 5.8 version.

The biggest worry in Dobson's season has been the direction of its defense. The Mustangs allowed 5.7 yards per play (993 yards on 174 snaps) over their first 3 games (2-1), #74 in section within that period. In the 6 games since that hot start (2-4), Dobson has allowed 9.4 yards per play (2,815 yards on 301 snaps), a 64% rise, #202 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Dobson's last 6 opponents have averaged 7.5 yards per play, a #79 offense in section on the season, against 5.1 yards per play, #185 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.5 yards per play), Dobson allowed 24% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #100 in section, well above the first 3 (#188), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Mustangs rank #179 in section in yards per play allowed. Ironwood's offense, #176 of 230 (5.4 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Dobson needs.

Dobson's offense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Dobson averaged 35.0 points per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #76 in section during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Mustangs have averaged 23.0 points per game, a 34% drop, #144 in section during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Dobson's last 5 opponents have averaged 23.6 points per game, a #125 scoring defense in section on the season, against 29.6 points per game, #169 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #88 in section, well above the first 4 (#184), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Dobson was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 0 against ScorePirate AZ section #8 Ala - Gilbert North on 9/25. On the season, Dobson ranks #116 in section in scoring. Ironwood's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #167 in section (29.2 points per game). Dobson is 4-1 this season when it scores 30 or more, and 0-4 when it doesn't.

Something changed for Dobson's run defense after its first 3 games. The Mustangs allowed 5.8 yards per carry (594 yards on 103 rushes) over their first 3 games (2-1), #114 in section during that stretch. In the 6 games since that hot start (2-4), Dobson has allowed 7.7 yards per carry (1,306 yards on 170 rushes), a 33% rise, #178 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Dobson's last 6 opponents have averaged 6.4 yards per carry, a #94 rushing attack in section on the season, against 4.3 yards per carry, #184 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.4 yards per carry), Dobson allowed 19% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #100 in section, well above the first 3 (#188), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, the Mustangs rank #161 in section in run defense. Ironwood's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #129 in section (5.6 yards per carry).

Dobson's offense has gained fewer yards per snap as the season has worn on. Dobson averaged 8.4 yards per play (1,503 yards on 179 snaps) over its first 4 games (3-1), #47 in section over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Mustangs have averaged 6.7 yards per play (1,384 yards on 207 snaps), a 20% drop, #114 in section over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Dobson's last 5 opponents have averaged 6.5 yards per play, a #103 defense in section on the season, against 7.5 yards per play, #154 for the first 4. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #88 in section, well above the first 4 (#184), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Dobson ranks #82 in section in yards per play. Ironwood's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #93 in section (6.3 yards per play).