In short: Colfax Falcons high school football (Colfax, CA), 2026 season: 5-3. Last game: W 31-6 vs Bear River on October 23, 2026. Next: at Center, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Colfax's next game, against Center, and the recent returns favor Center. Colfax forced 2.0 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #29 in Section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Falcons have forced 0.5 takeaways per game, a 75% drop, #121 in Section in that window. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 4 opponents have been softer, averaging 1.2 per game, a #64 offense in Section on the season, against 1.1 per game, #53 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.2 per game), Colfax forced 58% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Conversely, Center's ball security has been one of Section's better units in recent weeks. The Cougars have committed 0.2 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #6 in Section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker defenses in Section (0.9 per game on the season, which would rank #120). Against those norms, Center turned it over 71% less than those defenses usually force. Unless Colfax's defense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Center.
The number to watch when Colfax meets Center is Colfax's scoring defense. Colfax allowed 17.7 points per game over its first 3 games (2-1), #42 in Section through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (3-2), the Falcons have allowed 24.8 points per game, a 40% rise, #69 in Section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 25.2 points per game on the season. Meanwhile, Center's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Cougars have averaged 31.4 points per game over their last 5 games (4-1), #57 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in Section (25.6 points per game on the season, which would rank #72). Against those norms, Center scored 23% more than those defenses usually allow. Center offers Colfax a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Colfax is 5-0 this season when it holds opponents under 32, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
NOTES
The biggest shift in Colfax's season has come in its run defense. Colfax allowed 5.3 yards per carry (642 yards on 120 rushes) over its first 4 games (3-1), #60 in Section within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), the Falcons have allowed 3.0 yards per carry (262 yards on 86 rushes), a 43% drop, #9 in Section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Colfax's last 4 opponents have averaged 5.9 yards per carry, a #86 rushing attack in Section on the season, against 8.9 yards per carry, #13 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.9 yards per carry), Colfax held those rushing attacks 48% below their usual yards per carry. On the season, Colfax ranks #24 in Section in run defense. Center's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #43 in Section (7.1 yards per carry).
Colfax's ground game has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Falcons averaged 8.5 yards per carry (844 yards on 99 rushes) over their first 4 games (3-1), #15 in Section during those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), Colfax has averaged 10.3 yards per carry (853 yards on 83 rushes), a 21% rise, #10 in Section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.1 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per carry), Colfax ran for 48% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, the Falcons rank #10 in Section in rushing. Center's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #99 in Section (6.7 yards per carry).
TIDBITS (9 found)
• Club The last time Colfax went a game being held under 6.0 yards per play was August 29, 2025 against East Nicolaus (L, 7-31). Since then Colfax has gone 16 straight games averaging 6.0+ yards per play, a school-record 16 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club The last time Colfax went a game being held under 100 rushing yards was October 3, 2025 against Wheatland (L, 33-51). Since then Colfax has gone 12 straight games rushing for 100+ yards, a school-record 12 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Colfax has gone 8 straight games averaging 5.0+ yards per carry (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 5-3 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Colfax has gone 4 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (October 2, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 2-2 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Player Graeson Howard has gone 11 straight games rushing for 100+ yards, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Graeson Howard has 13 rushing touchdowns over his last 6 games (2.2 a game, September 4, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 6-game stretch on record.
• Player Declan Mcnally has 35 tackles over his last 3 games (11.7 a game, September 4, 2026 through September 25, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Henry Rollins has 39 tackles over his last 4 games (9.8 a game, September 4, 2026 through October 2, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• Player Roman Mikitiuk has 27 tackles over his last 3 games (9.0 a game, September 4, 2026 through September 25, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
MILESTONE WATCH
Colfax
Henry Rollins needs 4 tackles for 50 (averaging 9.2 a game)
Adam Amatangelo needs 240 passing yards for 1,500 (averaging 210.0 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 23; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 6/8, sacks/INT 7/8, sacks allowed 5/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 75.9/100 (+46 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 69.5/100 (+35 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 14.6/100 (+56 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 72.7/100 (-49 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-30
at
CENTER
7-1
31.5
2026-11-06
at
LINCOLN
7-1
39.9
LAST YEAR
COL finished 2025 at 4-6. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 45-34 over BEAR RIVER (BEAR RIVER finished 55% that season). Toughest loss: 25-29 to MARYSVILLE (4-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
COL HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• COL commits zero giveaways (.800), and has won 2 straight when doing so
COL — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (28 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
0-1
.000
7.0
Scores 10-19
0-2
.000
14.5
Scores 20-29
4-10
.286
23.4
Scores 30-39
4-1
.800
33.6
Scores 40+
5-1
.833
47.8
COL — OFFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
3-2
.600
31.2
L1
YPA < 8.0
1-0
1.000
35.0
W1
2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
3-2
.600
30.2
L1
Pass Yds < 200
1-1
.500
30.5
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
5-3
.625
30.4
W1
Rush Yds < 100
--
--
--
--
Rush Yds 150+
4-3
.571
31.7
W1
Rush Yds < 150
1-0
1.000
21.0
W1
YPC 5.0+
5-3
.625
30.4
W1
YPC < 5.0
--
--
--
--
YPP 6.0+
5-3
.625
30.4
W1
YPP < 6.0
--
--
--
--
YPP 7.0+
5-3
.625
30.4
W1
YPP < 7.0
--
--
--
--
Turnovers 1+
1-2
.333
23.3
L1
Turnovers < 1
4-1
.800
34.6
W2
Turnovers 2+
1-2
.333
23.3
L1
Turnovers > 2
1-1
.500
21.0
L1
COL — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
--
--
--
Scores 10-19
--
--
--
Scores 20-29
1-3
.250
24.0
Scores 30-39
3-0
1.000
33.7
Scores 40+
1-0
1.000
46.0
COL — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (28 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-5
.000
39.0
L5
YPA < 8.0
3-4
.429
25.0
W1
16 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-5
.000
40.8
L5
Pass Yds < 200
3-4
.429
23.7
W3
16 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
2-8
.200
32.3
L1
Rush Yds < 100
1-1
.500
23.5
W1
16 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
2-7
.222
32.1
L1
Rush Yds < 150
1-2
.333
27.0
W1
16 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
2-8
.200
32.3
L1
YPC < 5.0
1-1
.500
23.5
W1
16 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
0-6
.000
36.8
L6
YPP < 6.0
3-3
.500
24.8
W1
16 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-4
.000
40.8
L4
YPP < 7.0
3-5
.375
25.9
W1
16 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
4-3
.571
21.0
W4
Turnovers < 1
1-6
.143
32.9
L1
14 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
3-1
.750
20.5
W3
14 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
1-1
.500
31.0
W1
14 games without this stat on file
COL — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (28 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
5-0
1.000
3.8
Allows 10-19
3-0
1.000
14.0
Allows 20-29
3-6
.333
26.2
Allows 30-39
2-4
.333
32.7
Allows 40+
0-5
.000
49.0
COL — DEFENSE — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
0-2
.000
40.5
L2
YPA < 8.0
3-1
.750
22.2
W1
2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
0-2
.000
45.0
L2
Pass Yds < 200
3-1
.750
20.0
W3
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
2-2
.500
30.8
L1
Rush Yds < 100
1-1
.500
23.5
W1
2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
2-2
.500
30.8
L1
Rush Yds < 150
1-1
.500
23.5
W1
2 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
2-2
.500
30.8
L1
YPC < 5.0
1-1
.500
23.5
W1
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
0-1
.000
49.0
L1
YPP < 6.0
3-2
.600
24.2
W1
2 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
0-1
.000
49.0
L1
YPP < 7.0
3-2
.600
24.2
W1
2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
4-0
1.000
13.8
W4
Turnovers < 1
1-3
.250
30.5
L1
Turnovers 2+
3-0
1.000
16.0
W3
Turnovers > 2
1-0
1.000
28.0
W1
COL — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (8 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
3-0
1.000
4.3
Allows 10-19
1-0
1.000
14.0
Allows 20-29
1-0
1.000
28.0
Allows 30-39
0-1
.000
32.0
Allows 40+
0-2
.000
45.0
ON THE BRINK
COLFAX
• COLFAX has held the opponent under 100 rushing in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). Earlier games have no box score on file, so the run may be longer. It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
COL's defense has averaged 1.0 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 5.8 YPC. (-83%)
COL's defense has averaged 40.5 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 179.2 rush yards per game. (-77%)
COL's defense has averaged 4.2 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 7.0 YPP. (-41%)
COL's defense has averaged 15.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 28-game average is 26.4 points allowed per game. (-41%)
COL's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 14-game average is 1.1 takeaways per game. (-38%)
COL's defense has averaged 6.0 YPA over their last 7 games. Their 12-game average is 8.7 YPA. (-32%)
COL's defense has averaged 241.5 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 12-game average is 346.7 total yards per game. (-30%)
COL's defense has averaged 206.5 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 12-game average is 167.4 pass yards per game. (+23%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where COLFAX sits among 148 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 63.8, Defense Grade 35.0.
YARDS / PLAY: COLFAX VS THE SECTION
COLFAX ranks #9 of 130 section teams in yards per play (9.99) -- a strength worth a look.
COLFAX: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 3.0 in 2022 to 1.7 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
