Next: vs El Paso, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: El Paso at Chapin.

The turnover battle could decide Chapin's next game, against El Paso, and the recent returns favor Chapin. Chapin forced 0.2 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #1094 in section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Huskies have forced 2.0 takeaways per game, a 700% rise, #183 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Chapin's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.2 per game, a #591 offense in section on the season, against 0.8 per game, #270 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.2 per game), Chapin forced 60% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #732 in section, well below the first 4 (#321), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, El Paso's ball security has struggled in recent weeks. The Tigers have committed 2.2 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #1048 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (1.3 per game on the season, which would rank #530). Against those norms, El Paso turned it over 67% more than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #851 in section, a lower level of competition. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Chapin.

The number to watch when Chapin meets El Paso is Chapin's scoring defense. Chapin allowed 33.2 points per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #818 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Huskies have allowed 7.7 points per game, a 77% drop, #71 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Chapin's last 3 opponents have averaged 24.8 points per game, a #778 offense in section on the season, against 38.9 points per game, #270 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (24.8 points per game), Chapin held those offenses 69% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #821 in section, well below the first 5 (#349), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, El Paso's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Tigers have averaged 24.7 points per game over their last 3 games (1-2), #736 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in section (29.9 points per game on the season, which would rank #688). Against those norms, El Paso scored 18% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #839 in section, a lower level of competition. El Paso offers Chapin a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Chapin is 3-0 this season when it holds opponents under 18, and 1-4 when it doesn't.

The biggest shift in Chapin's season has come in its ball security. Chapin committed 2.2 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #1041 in section within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Huskies have committed 1.0 giveaways per game, a 56% drop, #404 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Chapin's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.4 per game, a #481 defense in section on the season, against 1.5 per game, #396 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Chapin turned it over 29% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #732 in section, well below the first 4 (#321), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Chapin ranks #869 in section in giveaways. El Paso's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #654 in section (1.1 per game).

Chapin's offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Huskies averaged 7.1 yards per play (1,509 yards on 213 snaps) over their first 4 games (1-3), #423 in section during those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), Chapin has averaged 10.6 yards per play (1,865 yards on 176 snaps), a 50% rise, #57 in section during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Chapin's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.8 yards per play, a #903 defense in section on the season, against 6.4 yards per play, #446 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.8 yards per play), Chapin gained 35% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #732 in section, well below the first 4 (#321), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Huskies rank #146 in section in yards per play. El Paso's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #817 in section (7.4 yards per play).

Something changed for Chapin's passing game after its first 4 games. Chapin averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt (858 yards on 96 attempts) over its first 4 games (1-3), #318 in section during that stretch. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), the Huskies have averaged 13.4 yards per pass attempt (1,069 yards on 80 attempts), a 50% rise, #60 in section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Chapin's last 4 opponents have averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, a #841 pass defense in section on the season, against 8.2 yards per attempt, #652 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.1 yards per attempt), Chapin threw for 46% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #732 in section, well below the first 4 (#321), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Chapin ranks #127 in section in passing. El Paso's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #741 in section (8.6 yards per attempt).

One of Chapin's most reliable areas lately has been its ground game. The Huskies averaged 5.6 yards per carry (651 yards on 117 rushes) over their first 4 games (1-3), #577 in section over that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (3-1), Chapin has averaged 8.3 yards per carry (796 yards on 96 rushes), a 49% rise, #160 in section over that span. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Chapin's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.8 yards per carry, a #860 run defense in section on the season, against 5.2 yards per carry, #359 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.8 yards per carry), Chapin ran for 21% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #732 in section, well below the first 4 (#321), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Huskies rank #333 in section in rushing. El Paso's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #864 in section (6.9 yards per carry).

Chapin allowed 7.1 yards per carry (1,103 yards on 155 rushes) over its first 5 games (1-4), #927 in section in that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), the Huskies have allowed 3.2 yards per carry (273 yards on 84 rushes), a 54% drop, #121 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Chapin's last 3 opponents have averaged 5.4 yards per carry, a #647 rushing attack in section on the season, against 8.0 yards per carry, #140 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.4 yards per carry), Chapin held those rushing attacks 40% below their usual yards per carry. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #821 in section, well below the first 5 (#349), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Chapin ranks #547 in section in run defense. El Paso's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #462 in section (6.1 yards per carry).