In short: Central Catholic Raiders high school football (Modesto, CA), 2026 season: 7-1 in the Valley Oak League League. Last game: W 42-0 vs Sierra on October 23, 2026. Next: at Patterson, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The turnover battle could decide Central Catholic's next game, against Patterson, and the recent returns favor Central Catholic. Central Catholic forced 0.8 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #112 in Section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), the Raiders have forced 3.2 takeaways per game, a 333% rise, #4 in Section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Central Catholic's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.6 per game, a #103 offense in Section on the season, against 1.0 per game, #53 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Central Catholic forced 104% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #63 in Section, well below the first 4 (#22), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Patterson's ball security has struggled in recent weeks. The Tigers have committed 2.2 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #132 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in Section (1.3 per game on the season, which would rank #75). Against those norms, Patterson turned it over 71% more than those defenses usually force. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Central Catholic.
The number to watch when Central Catholic meets Patterson is Central Catholic's scoring defense. Central Catholic allowed 20.0 points per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #46 in Section through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), the Raiders have allowed 5.0 points per game, a 75% drop, #6 in Section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Central Catholic's last 4 opponents have averaged 23.4 points per game, a #87 offense in Section on the season, against 27.2 points per game, #74 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (23.4 points per game), Central Catholic held those offenses 79% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #63 in Section, well below the first 4 (#22), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Patterson's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Tigers have averaged 30.0 points per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #62 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in Section (26.8 points per game on the season, which would rank #84). Against those norms, Patterson scored 12% more than those defenses usually allow. Patterson offers Central Catholic a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
NOTES
The biggest shift in Central Catholic's season has come in its offense. Central Catholic averaged 26.0 points per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #65 in Section within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), the Raiders have averaged 45.2 points per game, a 74% rise, #16 in Section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Central Catholic's last 4 opponents have averaged 27.8 points per game, a #88 scoring defense in Section on the season, against 21.2 points per game, #52 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.8 points per game), Central Catholic scored 63% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #63 in Section, well below the first 4 (#22), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Central Catholic ranks #30 in Section in scoring. Patterson's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #69 in Section (24.6 points per game).
Central Catholic's ground game has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Raiders averaged 7.3 yards per carry (791 yards on 109 rushes) over their first 4 games (3-1), #34 in Section during those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), Central Catholic has averaged 9.9 yards per carry (1,094 yards on 111 rushes), a 36% rise, #11 in Section during that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Central Catholic's last 4 opponents have averaged 6.9 yards per carry, a #106 run defense in Section on the season, against 5.4 yards per carry, #41 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.9 yards per carry), Central Catholic ran for 43% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #63 in Section, well below the first 4 (#22), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Raiders rank #16 in Section in rushing. Patterson's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #80 in Section (6.3 yards per carry).
Something changed for Central Catholic's offense after its first 4 games. Central Catholic averaged 8.0 yards per play (1,422 yards on 178 snaps) over its first 4 games (3-1), #40 in Section during that stretch. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), the Raiders have averaged 10.8 yards per play (1,781 yards on 165 snaps), a 35% rise, #12 in Section over that period. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Central Catholic's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.4 yards per play, a #90 defense in Section on the season, against 6.1 yards per play, #36 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.4 yards per play), Central Catholic gained 46% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #63 in Section, well below the first 4 (#22), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Central Catholic ranks #19 in Section in yards per play. Patterson's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #55 in Section (6.6 yards per play).
One of Central Catholic's most reliable areas lately has been its pass defense. The Raiders allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt (825 yards on 100 attempts) over their first 4 games (3-1), #85 in Section over that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (4-0), Central Catholic has allowed 5.7 yards per pass attempt (425 yards on 75 attempts), a 31% drop, #21 in Section over that span. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Central Catholic's last 4 opponents have averaged 8.0 yards per attempt, a #77 passing attack in Section on the season, against 9.2 yards per attempt, #50 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.0 yards per attempt), Central Catholic held those passing attacks 29% below their usual yards per attempt. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #63 in Section, well below the first 4 (#22), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Raiders rank #37 in Section in pass defense. Patterson's passing game sits in the middle of the pack, #55 in Section (9.0 yards per attempt).
Central Catholic's defense has clamped down as the season has progressed. Central Catholic allowed 6.2 yards per play (947 yards on 153 snaps) over its first 3 games (2-1), #58 in Section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (5-0), the Raiders have allowed 5.1 yards per play (908 yards on 179 snaps), an 18% drop, #15 in Section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Central Catholic's last 5 opponents have averaged 5.9 yards per play, a #111 offense in Section on the season, against 7.8 yards per play, #51 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.9 yards per play), Central Catholic held those offenses 15% below their usual yards per snap. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #58 in Section, well below the first 3 (#8), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Central Catholic ranks #20 in Section in yards per play allowed. Patterson's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #46 in Section (7.8 yards per play).
TIDBITS (12 found)
• Club Central Catholic has won 7 straight, and a win would make it 8 in a row -- something they have not done in the 6 seasons on record.
• Club Central Catholic has gone 13 straight games committing fewer than 2 turnovers (October 10, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 10-3 over that stretch, a school-record 13 straight in the 6 seasons on record.
• Club Central Catholic is 32-2 all time when averaging 7.0+ yards per play. Central Catholic's last loss when averaging 7.0+ yards per play was November 18, 2022 against Folsom (L, 27-62).
• Club Central Catholic is 25-2 all time when scoring 40+ points. Central Catholic's last loss when scoring 40+ points was October 17, 2025 against Oakdale (L, 46-60).
• Club Central Catholic is 13-2 all time when holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards. Central Catholic's last loss when holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards was August 28, 2026 against Homedale (L, 21-33).
• Club Central Catholic has gone 7 straight games averaging 8.0+ yards per attempt (September 4, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 7-0 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2023 (9 games).
• Player Cruz Costa has gone 7 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Zymir Nelson has 532 rushing yards over his last 3 games (177.3 a game, September 25, 2026 through October 9, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Zymir Nelson has 7 rushing touchdowns over his last 3 games (2.3 a game, September 25, 2026 through October 9, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Cruz Costa has gone 2 straight games throwing for 200+ yards, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Louis Gregoris has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Central Catholic, over a 17-game career on record. His career high is 9, set September 11, 2026 against St. Bonaventure (W, 28-19).
• Player Marquis Roberts has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Central Catholic, over a 19-game career on record. His career high is 7, set October 18, 2024 against Oakdale (W, 46-27).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Central Catholic has played a tougher-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#25 of 152), and what is left is one of the toughest slates (#19 of 151).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#25 of 152
avg opponent rating 11.7 over 8 games · 4 vs top-25 CIF Sac-Joaquin Section
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#19 of 151
avg opponent rating 16.0 over 2 games · 1 vs top-25
@Homedale L 21-33St Mary's W 27-14St Bonav… W 28-19@Pleasant… W 28-14@Mountain… W 56-0East Uni… W 41-7@Manteca W 42-13Sierra W 42-0@PattersonOakdale
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
MILESTONE WATCH
Central Catholic
Zymir Nelson needs 29 rushing yards for 1,000 (averaging 138.7 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 9 game; last updated Oct 15; roster and numbers checked Sep 10.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
4 CIF State titles · 2 CIF State runner-up finishes · 2 league titles
YEAR
HONOR
2023
Valley Oak League LEAGUE CHAMPION (5-0 in league)
2022
Valley Oak League LEAGUE CHAMPION (5-0 in league)
2021
CIF STATE RUNNER-UP (lost to Mater Dei Catholic 34-25)
2015
CIF STATE Small Schools CHAMPION (def. San Marino 56-21)
2014
CIF STATE IV CHAMPION (def. St. Margaret's 31-19)
2013
CIF STATE IV CHAMPION (def. Bakersfield Chr 36-23)
2012
CIF STATE IV CHAMPION (def. Santa Fe Chr 66-7)
2007
CIF STATE III RUNNER-UP (lost to St. Bonaventure 35-21)
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (defense 7/8, sacks/INT 7/8, sacks allowed 7/8 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 76.9/100 (+49 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 89.3/100 (+112 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 75.7/100 (-42 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 68.1/100 (-39 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (two-way solve over current + past seasons, recency-weighted). Composite counts yardage, efficiency vs league YPA/YPC (50% tilt), and negative plays at sack=7yd, INT=45yd, TFL=4yd -- adjustable v1 constants.
CC finished 2025 at 5-6. Made the playoffs (1 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 61-29 over EAST UNION (EAST UNION finished 69% that season). Toughest loss: 13-14 to OAK RIDGE (1-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
CC HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• CC averages 7.0+ yards per play (.999), and has won 17 straight when doing so
• CC averages 8.0+ yards per attempt (.842), and has won 9 straight when doing so
• CC averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.750), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• CC commits fewer than 2 giveaways (.750), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• CC's defense has averaged 3.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 1.3 takeaways per game. (+150%)
• CC's defense has averaged 6.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 23.7 points allowed per game. (-72%)
• CC's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 7 straight games (09/04/2026-10/23/2026), going 7-0 over that stretch.
• CC averages 8.4+ yards per play (CC's own median) (.999)
• CC's defense has averaged 72.0 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 26-game average is 181.1 rush yards per game. (-60%)
• CC's offense has averaged 0.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 0.8 giveaways per game. (-60%)
• CC's offense has exceeded 150 rush yds in 6 straight games (09/11/2026-10/23/2026), going 6-0 over that stretch.
• CC holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards
• CC averages 7.1+ yards per carry (CC's own median) (.933)
• CC averages 10.0+ yards per attempt (CC's own median) (.933)
• CC rushes for 215.5+ yards (CC's own median) (.933)
• CENTRAL CATHOLIC has held the opponent under 14 in 4 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• CENTRAL CATHOLIC has forced 2+ turnovers in 4 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• CENTRAL CATHOLIC has won by 20+ in 4 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• CENTRAL CATHOLIC has rushed for 200+ in 6 straight games (9/11/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 7 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
CC's defense has averaged 3.3 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 1.3 takeaways per game. (+150%)
CC's defense has averaged 6.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 23.7 points allowed per game. (-72%)
CC's defense has averaged 72.0 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 26-game average is 181.1 rush yards per game. (-60%)
CC's defense has averaged 3.4 YPC over their last 5 games. Their 26-game average is 6.0 YPC. (-44%)
CC's defense has averaged 185.5 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 26-game average is 134.4 pass yards per game. (+38%)
CC's defense has averaged 227.0 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 26-game average is 315.5 total yards per game. (-28%)
CC's defense has averaged 4.9 YPP over their last 5 games. Their 26-game average is 6.6 YPP. (-25%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
CENTRAL CATHOLIC (MODESTO): OFFENSE VS DEFENSE, 2026
Where CENTRAL CATHOLIC (MODESTO) sits among 148 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 78.0, Defense Grade 64.7.
RUSH YARDS ALLOWED / GAME: CENTRAL CATHOLIC (MODESTO) VS THE SECTION
CENTRAL CATHOLIC (MODESTO) ranks #15 of 130 section teams in rushing yards allowed per game (28.7) -- a strength worth a look.
CENTRAL CATHOLIC (MODESTO): SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 28.9 in 2022 to 22.5 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
