In short: Carlsbad Lancers high school football (Carlsbad, CA), 2026 season: 8-1 in the Avocado - West League. Last game: L 21-37 vs La Costa Canyon on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Del Norte, October 30, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, ScorePirate ranking and the game-by-game log.
The number to watch when Carlsbad meets Del Norte is Carlsbad's scoring defense. Carlsbad allowed 7.7 points per game over its first 6 games (6-0), #4 in Section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Lancers have allowed 28.0 points per game, a 265% rise, #58 in Section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Carlsbad's last 3 opponents have averaged 28.5 points per game, a #35 offense in Section on the season, against 25.7 points per game, #45 for the first 6. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #4 in Section. Meanwhile, Del Norte's offense has struggled in recent weeks. The Nighthawks have averaged 12.7 points per game over their last 3 games (0-3), #74 in Section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in Section (25.7 points per game on the season, which would rank #58). Against those norms, Del Norte scored 51% less than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #17 in Section, a strong slate. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Carlsbad is 7-0 this season when it holds opponents under 23, and 1-1 when it doesn't.
The battle on the air could decide Carlsbad's next game, against Del Norte, and the recent returns favor Del Norte. Carlsbad allowed 5.3 yards per pass attempt (526 yards on 99 attempts) over its first 5 games (5-0), #10 in Section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), the Lancers have allowed 10.2 yards per pass attempt (773 yards on 76 attempts), a 91% rise, #75 in Section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Carlsbad's last 4 opponents have averaged 9.3 yards per attempt, a #17 passing attack in Section on the season, against 8.2 yards per attempt, #40 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.3 yards per attempt), Carlsbad allowed 9% more per attempt than those passing attacks usually gain. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #9 in Section. Meanwhile, Del Norte's passing game has struggled in recent weeks. The Nighthawks have averaged 5.0 yards per pass attempt (397 yards on 79 attempts) over their last 4 games (0-4), #77 in Section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of pass defenses in Section (7.5 yards per attempt on the season, which would rank #37). Against those norms, Del Norte threw for 33% less per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #15 in Section, a strong slate. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Carlsbad's season has been the direction of its defense. Carlsbad allowed 4.6 yards per play (987 yards on 213 snaps) over its first 5 games (5-0), #9 in Section within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), the Lancers have allowed 7.7 yards per play (1,183 yards on 154 snaps), a 66% rise, #63 in Section across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.3 yards per play on the season. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #9 in Section. On the season, Carlsbad ranks #25 in Section in yards per play allowed. Del Norte's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #55 in Section (6.2 yards per play).
The Lancers averaged 11.2 yards per pass attempt (876 yards on 78 attempts) over their first 5 games (5-0), #7 in Section during those games. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), Carlsbad has averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt (669 yards on 90 attempts), a 34% drop, #52 in Section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.5 yards per attempt on the season. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #9 in Section. On the season, the Lancers rank #19 in Section in passing. Del Norte's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #58 in Section (8.4 yards per attempt).
Carlsbad's run defense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. Carlsbad allowed 3.9 yards per carry (331 yards on 85 rushes) over its first 4 games (4-0), #18 in Section during that stretch. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Lancers have allowed 5.0 yards per carry (540 yards on 107 rushes), a 30% rise, #32 in Section over that period. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 5 opponents have been softer, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, a #41 rushing attack in Section on the season, against 6.6 yards per carry, #27 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.8 yards per carry), Carlsbad held those rushing attacks 13% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #11 in Section. On the season, Carlsbad ranks #21 in Section in run defense. Del Norte's ground game, #76 of 89 (4.2 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Carlsbad needs.
Something changed for Carlsbad's offense after the first 5 games of the season. The Lancers averaged 10.3 yards per play (2,142 yards on 207 snaps) over their first 5 games (5-0), #1 in Section over that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (3-1), Carlsbad has averaged 7.7 yards per play (1,695 yards on 220 snaps), a 26% drop, #31 in Section over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.3 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.2 yards per play), Carlsbad gained 24% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #9 in Section. On the season, the Lancers rank #5 in Section in yards per play. Del Norte's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #58 in Section (7.1 yards per play).
Carlsbad's ground game has bogged down on the ground as the season has progressed. Carlsbad averaged 10.3 yards per carry (1,124 yards on 109 rushes) over its first 4 games (4-0), #1 in Section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (4-1), the Lancers have averaged 7.8 yards per carry (1,168 yards on 150 rushes), a 24% drop, #19 in Section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Carlsbad's last 5 opponents have averaged 4.9 yards per carry, a #28 run defense in Section on the season, against 5.6 yards per carry, #45 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.9 yards per carry), Carlsbad ran for 58% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Overall, those opponents have been strong teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank #11 in Section. On the season, Carlsbad ranks #4 in Section in rushing. Del Norte's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #58 in Section (6.1 yards per carry).
TIDBITS (14 found)
• Club The last time Carlsbad went a game being held under 6.0 yards per play was August 23, 2024 against Lakewood (L, 17-20). Since then Carlsbad has gone 32 straight games averaging 6.0+ yards per play, a school-record 32 straight in the 7 seasons on record.
• Club The last time Carlsbad went a game being held under 100 rushing yards was October 25, 2024 against La Costa Canyon (L, 11-21). Since then Carlsbad has gone 24 straight games rushing for 100+ yards, a school-record 24 straight in the 7 seasons on record.
• Club Carlsbad is 37-2 all time when holding the opponent under 200 passing yards. Carlsbad's last loss when holding the opponent under 200 passing yards was November 22, 2024 against Granite Hills (L, 16-22).
• Club Carlsbad is 27-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (27 such games).
• Club Carlsbad is 33-2 all time when holding the opponent under 8.0 yards per attempt. Carlsbad's last loss when holding the opponent under 8.0 yards per attempt was August 23, 2024 against Lakewood (L, 17-20).
• Club Carlsbad has gone 16 straight games forcing fewer than 3 turnovers (October 3, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 13-3 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (18 games).
• Club Carlsbad has gone 9 straight games averaging 5.0+ yards per carry (August 21, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 8-1 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2023 (17 games).
• Club Carlsbad has allowed 84 points over its last 3 games (28.0 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its 4th-highest 3-game total on record; the most is 95, from October 10, 2025 through October 24, 2025.
• Player Darian Webb has gone 8 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Antonio D'alessandro has gone 8 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.
• Player Darian Webb has 618 rushing yards over his last 3 games (206.0 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Conner Nichols has 24 tackles over his last 3 games (8.0 a game, September 4, 2026 through September 18, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Player Trent Kellas has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Carlsbad, over a 28-game career on record. His career high is 8, set August 28, 2026 against Oceanside (W, 35-0).
• Player Dylan Sims has gone 10 straight games without making 10 or more tackles. The last time he made 10 tackles was September 12, 2025 against Poway (W, 42-22) — 12 tackles.
MILESTONE WATCH
Carlsbad
Cash Redman needs 15 rushing yards for 500 (averaging 60.6 a game)
Darian Webb needs 91 rushing yards for 1,500 (averaging 176.1 a game)
Antonio D'Alessandro needs 196 passing yards for 1,500 (averaging 163.0 a game)
Mario Anguiano needs 1 sack for 5 (averaging 0.8 a game)
Win chances are the site's own game projections where one is on file, otherwise the SP Strength Index gap with a small home edge. The realistic range covers 80% of outcomes (10th to 90th percentile).
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 16 game; last updated Oct 23; roster and numbers checked Oct 6.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
Avocado - West LEAGUE CHAMPION (3-1 in league, shared with LA COSTA CANYON)
2023
Avocado LEAGUE CHAMPION (5-0 in league)
2022
Avocado LEAGUE CHAMPION (6-0 in league)
Section and state results and Players of the Year: CIF-SS Record Book. League finishes judged from league schedules on file (2022-2025 seasons); earlier league titles are not on file.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file (sacks/INT 8/9, sacks allowed 8/9 games). SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 90.4/100 (+103 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 90.2/100 (+119 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 92.3/100 (-83 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 88.1/100 (-90 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, opponent-curved (adjusted for the opponents faced).
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-30
vs
DEL NORTE
4-5
22.4
LAST YEAR
CAR finished 2025 at 10-2. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 31-17 over MISSION HILLS (MISSION HILLS finished 82% that season). Toughest loss: 16-20 to CATHEDRAL CATHOLIC (4-point margin).
"N/A" stands in for a box score that does not have stats entered. A total followed by a count in parentheses covers only the games with that stat on file.
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
CAR HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• CAR averages 5.0+ yards per carry (.862), but most recently lost to La Costa Canyon when doing so
• CAR holds its opponents under 200 passing yards (.913), and has won 14 straight when doing so
• CAR rushes for 150+ yards (.913), but most recently lost to La Costa Canyon when doing so
• CAR holds its opponents under 7.0 yards per play (.950), and has won 7 straight when doing so
• CAR's offense has exceeded 6.0 YPP in 16 straight games (10/03/2025-10/23/2026), going 13-3 over that stretch.
• CAR's defense has limited opponents to under 150 rush yds in 11 straight games (11/14/2025-10/23/2026), going 9-2 over that stretch.
• CAR's defense has averaged 28.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 14.7 points allowed per game. (+91%)
• CAR's defense has averaged 11.8 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 7.4 YPA. (+60%)
• CAR's defense has averaged 230.3 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 150.1 pass yards per game. (+53%)
• CAR holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry
• CAR holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards while forcing 2+ takeaways
• CAR's offense has averaged 1.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 32-game average is 1.0 giveaways per game. (+38%)
• CAR averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards
• CAR's offense has averaged 281.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 32-game average is 207.8 rush yards per game. (+35%)
• CAR's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 32-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (-33%)
CAR — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (33 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
1-0
1.000
0.0
Scores 10-19
0-4
.000
15.0
Scores 20-29
5-3
.625
24.6
Scores 30-39
11-0
1.000
33.4
Scores 40+
9-0
1.000
43.0
CAR — OFFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
6-0
1.000
39.8
W6
YPA < 8.0
2-1
.667
25.0
L1
Pass Yds 200+
1-1
.500
35.0
L1
Pass Yds < 200
7-0
1.000
34.9
W7
Rush Yds 100+
8-1
.889
34.9
L1
Rush Yds < 100
--
--
--
--
Rush Yds 150+
7-1
.875
33.1
L1
Rush Yds < 150
1-0
1.000
49.0
W1
YPC 5.0+
8-1
.889
34.9
L1
YPC < 5.0
--
--
--
--
YPP 6.0+
8-1
.889
34.9
L1
YPP < 6.0
--
--
--
--
YPP 7.0+
7-1
.875
35.5
L1
YPP < 7.0
1-0
1.000
30.0
W1
Turnovers 1+
5-1
.833
37.5
L1
Turnovers < 1
3-0
1.000
29.7
W3
Turnovers 2+
2-0
1.000
38.5
W2
Turnovers > 2
1-0
1.000
35.0
W1
CAR — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Scores <10
--
--
--
Scores 10-19
--
--
--
Scores 20-29
1-1
.500
22.5
Scores 30-39
4-0
1.000
34.5
Scores 40+
3-0
1.000
43.7
CAR — DEFENSE — 2024-26 (33 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
7-5
.583
23.5
L1
YPA < 8.0
17-1
.944
9.3
W17
3 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+
3-4
.429
26.4
L1
Pass Yds < 200
21-2
.913
11.5
W14
3 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+
11-4
.733
16.7
L1
Rush Yds < 100
12-2
.857
13.8
W9
4 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+
2-2
.500
23.0
L1
Rush Yds < 150
21-4
.840
14.0
L1
4 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+
8-2
.800
17.4
W3
YPC < 5.0
15-4
.789
14.2
L1
4 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+
9-6
.600
21.2
L1
YPP < 6.0
15-0
1.000
8.7
W15
3 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+
5-5
.500
23.9
L1
YPP < 7.0
19-1
.950
10.5
W7
3 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+
18-3
.857
13.0
W4
Turnovers < 1
7-4
.636
19.2
L1
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+
9-0
1.000
13.9
W9
1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2
2-0
1.000
14.5
W2
1 games without this stat on file
CAR — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2024-26 (33 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
13-0
1.000
3.8
Allows 10-19
8-0
1.000
13.8
Allows 20-29
5-4
.556
22.6
Allows 30-39
0-2
.000
36.0
Allows 40+
0-1
.000
50.0
CAR — DEFENSE — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
YPA 8.0+
2-1
.667
26.7
L1
YPA < 8.0
6-0
1.000
8.3
W6
Pass Yds 200+
2-1
.667
26.7
L1
Pass Yds < 200
6-0
1.000
8.3
W6
Rush Yds 100+
4-1
.800
16.0
L1
Rush Yds < 100
4-0
1.000
12.5
W4
Rush Yds 150+
--
--
--
--
Rush Yds < 150
8-1
.889
14.4
L1
YPC 5.0+
3-0
1.000
10.3
W3
YPC < 5.0
5-1
.833
16.5
L1
YPP 6.0+
4-1
.800
21.6
L1
YPP < 6.0
4-0
1.000
5.5
W4
YPP 7.0+
1-1
.500
31.5
L1
YPP < 7.0
7-0
1.000
9.6
W7
Turnovers 1+
4-0
1.000
14.2
W4
Turnovers < 1
4-1
.800
14.6
L1
Turnovers 2+
4-0
1.000
14.2
W4
Turnovers > 2
--
--
--
--
CAR — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION — 2026 (9 Gms)
SPLIT
REC
WIN%
PPG
Allows <10
4-0
1.000
4.2
Allows 10-19
2-0
1.000
14.5
Allows 20-29
2-0
1.000
23.5
Allows 30-39
0-1
.000
37.0
Allows 40+
--
--
--
ON THE BRINK
CARLSBAD
• CARLSBAD has rushed for 200+ in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• CARLSBAD has gained 400+ total yards in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
CAR's defense has averaged 28.0 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 33-game average is 14.7 points allowed per game. (+91%)
CAR's defense has averaged 11.8 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 7.4 YPA. (+60%)
CAR's defense has averaged 230.3 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 150.1 pass yards per game. (+53%)
CAR's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 32-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (-33%)
CAR's defense has averaged 7.9 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 6.1 YPP. (+30%)
CAR's defense has averaged 327.7 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 30-game average is 255.3 total yards per game. (+28%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where CARLSBAD (CARLSBAD) sits among 89 section teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 89.5, Defense Grade 89.5.
YARDS / CARRY: CARLSBAD (CARLSBAD) VS THE SECTION
CARLSBAD (CARLSBAD) ranks #1 of 82 section teams in yards per carry (10.31) -- a strength worth a look.
CARLSBAD (CARLSBAD): SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 5 seasons on file -- 32.7 in 2022 to 31.1 in 2026.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
