Next: vs Clairton, Fri 13 Nov. Matchup report: Clairton at California.

The turnover battle could decide California's next game, against Clairton, and the recent returns favor California. California forced 1.5 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #160 in section in that timeframe. In the 7 games since that slow start (7-0), the Trojans have forced 3.0 takeaways per game, a 100% rise, #3 in section in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.5 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.5 per game), California forced 101% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 7 opponents average a rating that would rank #469 in section, well below the first 4 (#275), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Clairton's ball security has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Bears have committed 0.6 giveaways per game over their last 7 games (7-0), #90 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (1.2 per game on the season, which would rank #270). Against those norms, Clairton turned it over 51% less than those defenses usually force. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #364 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when California's surging defense meets one of section's better units in Clairton's.

The number to watch when California meets Clairton is California's scoring. California averaged 20.0 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #329 in section through those games. In the 8 games since that slow start (8-0), the Trojans have averaged 41.8 points per game, a 109% rise, #40 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: California's last 8 opponents have averaged 28.7 points per game, a #400 scoring defense in section on the season, against 18.5 points per game, #180 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (28.7 points per game), California scored 45% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 8 opponents average a rating that would rank #472 in section, well below the first 3 (#195), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Clairton's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Bears have allowed 2.4 points per game over their last 8 games (8-0), #3 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (22.3 points per game on the season, which would rank #291). Against those norms, Clairton held those offenses 89% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #368 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when California's surging offense meets one of section's better units in Clairton's.

The biggest shift in California's season has come in its defense. California allowed 26.8 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #362 in section within that period. In the 7 games since that slow start (7-0), the Trojans have allowed 6.4 points per game, a 76% drop, #19 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: California's last 7 opponents have averaged 21.4 points per game, a #313 offense in section on the season, against 26.7 points per game, #190 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (21.4 points per game), California held those offenses 70% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 7 opponents average a rating that would rank #469 in section, well below the first 4 (#275), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, California ranks #79 in section in scoring defense. Clairton's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #304 in section (21.9 points per game). California is 9-0 this season when it holds opponents under 22, and 0-2 when it doesn't.

The Trojans allowed 7.4 yards per carry (668 yards on 90 rushes) over their first 5 games (3-2), #456 in section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 6 games since that slow start (6-0), California has allowed 2.8 yards per carry (428 yards on 154 rushes), a 63% drop, #38 in section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.1 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.1 yards per carry), California held those rushing attacks 54% below their usual yards per carry. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #470 in section, well below the first 5 (#313), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Trojans rank #131 in section in run defense. Clairton's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #137 in section (6.3 yards per carry).

Even as the schedule has stiffened, California has cleaned up its ball security. California committed 2.2 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #475 in section during that stretch. In the 6 games since that slow start (6-0), the Trojans have committed 0.8 giveaways per game, a 62% drop, #136 in section over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.5 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), California turned it over 47% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #470 in section, well below the first 5 (#313), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, California ranks #353 in section in giveaways. Clairton's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #142 in section (1.6 per game).

California's ground game has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Trojans averaged 5.2 yards per carry (514 yards on 99 rushes) over their first 4 games (2-2), #217 in section over that timeframe. In the 7 games since that slow start (7-0), California has averaged 8.2 yards per carry (1,420 yards on 173 rushes), a 58% rise, #46 in section over that span. The schedule deserves some of the credit: California's last 7 opponents have averaged 6.6 yards per carry, a #408 run defense in section on the season, against 5.7 yards per carry, #309 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.6 yards per carry), California ran for 25% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 7 opponents average a rating that would rank #469 in section, well below the first 4 (#275), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Trojans rank #82 in section in rushing. That form gets a real test against Clairton, whose run defense ranks #15 in section (2.5 yards per carry).

Something changed for California's defense after the first 6 games of the season. California allowed 6.3 yards per play (1,048 yards on 166 snaps) over its first 6 games (4-2), #300 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 5 games that followed (5-0), the Trojans have allowed 3.3 yards per play (628 yards on 189 snaps), a 47% drop, #19 in section in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.5 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.7 yards per play), California held those offenses 50% below their usual yards per snap. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #434 in section. On the season, California ranks #76 in section in yards per play allowed. Clairton's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #158 in section (6.8 yards per play).