Next: at Morrisville, Thu 26 Nov. Matchup report: Bristol at Morrisville.

The turnover battle could decide Bristol's next game, against Morrisville, and the recent returns favor Bristol. Bristol committed 1.5 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #314 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), the Warriors have committed 0.2 giveaways per game, an 87% drop, #41 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Bristol's last 5 opponents have averaged 1.2 per game, a #278 defense in section on the season, against 1.1 per game, #322 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.2 per game), Bristol turned it over 84% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #408 in section, well below the first 4 (#288), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Morrisville's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have forced 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 5 games (4-1), #402 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (1.3 per game on the season, which would rank #281). Against those norms, Morrisville forced 48% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #454 in section, a lower level of competition. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Bristol.

The number to watch when Bristol meets Morrisville is Bristol's scoring. Bristol averaged 19.0 points per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #354 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (4-0), the Warriors have averaged 33.5 points per game, a 76% rise, #127 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Bristol's last 4 opponents have averaged 18.3 points per game, a #189 scoring defense in section on the season, against 21.2 points per game, #253 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (18.3 points per game), Bristol scored 83% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #472 in section, well below the first 5 (#251), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Morrisville's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have allowed 8.5 points per game over their last 4 games (4-0), #45 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in section (16.4 points per game on the season, which would rank #415). Against those norms, Morrisville held those offenses 48% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #474 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Bristol's surging offense meets one of section's better units in Morrisville's. Bristol is 5-2 this season when it scores 11 or more, and 0-2 when it doesn't.

The biggest shift in Bristol's season has come in its defense. Bristol allowed 33.4 points per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #475 in section within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (4-0), the Warriors have allowed 8.8 points per game, a 74% drop, #49 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Bristol's last 4 opponents have averaged 19.5 points per game, a #361 offense in section on the season, against 24.5 points per game, #245 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (19.5 points per game), Bristol held those offenses 55% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #472 in section, well below the first 5 (#251), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Bristol ranks #275 in section in scoring defense. Morrisville's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #343 in section (20.1 points per game). Bristol is 5-0 this season when it holds opponents under 21, and 0-4 when it doesn't.

The Warriors averaged 4.2 yards per carry (482 yards on 116 rushes) over their first 5 games (1-4), #317 in section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (4-0), Bristol has averaged 7.1 yards per carry (1,044 yards on 148 rushes), a 70% rise, #101 in section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 4.9 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.8 yards per carry), Bristol ran for 46% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #472 in section, well below the first 5 (#251), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Warriors rank #188 in section in rushing. That form gets a real test against Morrisville, whose run defense ranks #68 in section (3.8 yards per carry).

Bristol's offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. Bristol averaged 5.4 yards per play (1,171 yards on 218 snaps) over its first 5 games (1-4), #277 in section during that stretch. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (4-0), the Warriors have averaged 7.8 yards per play (1,602 yards on 206 snaps), a 45% rise, #96 in section over that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 5.9 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.9 yards per play), Bristol gained 32% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #472 in section, well below the first 5 (#251), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Bristol ranks #182 in section in yards per play. That form gets a real test against Morrisville, whose defense ranks #30 in section (4.0 yards per play).

Something changed for Bristol's passing game after its first 4 games. The Warriors averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt (603 yards on 86 attempts) over their first 4 games (1-3), #229 in section over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (4-1), Bristol has averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt (644 yards on 74 attempts), a 24% rise, #124 in section over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.6 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.5 yards per attempt), Bristol threw for 16% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #408 in section, well below the first 4 (#288), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Warriors rank #184 in section in passing. That form gets a real test against Morrisville, whose pass defense ranks #22 in section (4.2 yards per attempt).