Next: at Lutheran South Academy, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Antonian Prep at Lutheran South Academy.

The battle on the air could decide Antonian Prep's next game, against Lutheran South Academy, and the recent returns favor Antonian Prep. Antonian Prep averaged 4.8 yards per pass attempt (336 yards on 70 attempts) over its first 3 games (1-2), #858 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Apaches have averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt (1,076 yards on 116 attempts), a 93% rise, #341 in section in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 8.2 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.0 yards per attempt), Antonian Prep threw for 16% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #501 in section, well above the first 3 (#713), which makes the improvement more impressive. Conversely, Lutheran South Academy's pass defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Pioneers have allowed 5.2 yards per pass attempt (367 yards on 71 attempts) over their last 5 games (4-1), #112 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of passing attacks in section (7.4 yards per attempt on the season, which would rank #592). Against those norms, Lutheran South Academy held those passing attacks 30% below their usual yards per attempt. Something has to give when Antonian Prep's surging passing game meets one of section's better units in Lutheran South Academy's.

The number to watch when Antonian Prep meets Lutheran South Academy is Antonian Prep's giveaways. Antonian Prep committed 1.8 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #869 in section through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), the Apaches have committed 0.5 giveaways per game, a 71% drop, #154 in section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.4 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.4 per game), Antonian Prep turned it over 64% less than those defenses usually force. Conversely, Lutheran South Academy's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Pioneers have forced 2.5 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (3-1), #78 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (1.4 per game on the season, which would rank #762). Against those norms, Lutheran South Academy forced 79% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Something has to give when Antonian Prep's surging ball security meets one of section's better units in Lutheran South Academy's.

The biggest shift in Antonian Prep's season has come in its defense. Antonian Prep allowed 36.0 points per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #913 in section within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), the Apaches have allowed 26.0 points per game, a 28% drop, #513 in section across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Antonian Prep's last 4 opponents have averaged 29.4 points per game, a #618 offense in section on the season, against 25.9 points per game, #745 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (29.4 points per game), Antonian Prep held those offenses 12% below what they usually score. On the season, Antonian Prep ranks #731 in section in scoring defense. That form gets a real test against Lutheran South Academy, whose offense ranks #138 in section (44.6 points per game).

Antonian Prep's ground game from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Apaches averaged 5.7 yards per carry (538 yards on 94 rushes) over their first 4 games (1-3), #529 in section during those games. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), Antonian Prep has averaged 4.4 yards per carry (444 yards on 100 rushes), a 22% drop, #749 in section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.3 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.2 yards per carry), Antonian Prep ran for 29% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, the Apaches rank #730 in section in rushing. Lutheran South Academy's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #577 in section (5.9 yards per carry).

Something changed for Antonian Prep's offense after the first 5 games of the season. Antonian Prep averaged 38.8 points per game over its first 5 games (2-3), #264 in section during that stretch. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), the Apaches have averaged 29.0 points per game, a 25% drop, #610 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Antonian Prep's last 3 opponents have averaged 25.4 points per game, a #479 scoring defense in section on the season, against 35.5 points per game, #893 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (25.4 points per game), Antonian Prep scored 14% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #278 in section, well above the first 5 (#755), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Antonian Prep ranks #395 in section in scoring. It won't get any easier against Lutheran South Academy, whose defense ranks #45 in section (12.1 points per game).

The Apaches averaged 5.9 yards per play (1,094 yards on 186 snaps) over their first 4 games (1-3), #700 in section over that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), Antonian Prep has averaged 6.7 yards per play (1,300 yards on 194 snaps), a 14% rise, #518 in section over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.2 yards per play on the season. On the season, the Apaches rank #656 in section in yards per play. That form gets a real test against Lutheran South Academy, whose defense ranks #284 in section (5.9 yards per play).

Antonian Prep's run defense has been gashed on the ground as the season has progressed. Antonian Prep allowed 4.9 yards per carry (475 yards on 96 rushes) over its first 4 games (1-3), #354 in section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Apaches have allowed 5.6 yards per carry (677 yards on 121 rushes), a 13% rise, #525 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Antonian Prep's last 4 opponents have averaged 5.9 yards per carry, a #498 rushing attack in section on the season, against 4.9 yards per carry, #765 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (5.9 yards per carry), Antonian Prep held those rushing attacks 6% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Antonian Prep ranks #395 in section in run defense. It won't get any easier against Lutheran South Academy, whose ground game ranks #179 in section (7.7 yards per carry).