In short: TATE (4-3) at Crestview (2-7), September 11, 2026 (high school football). Final: Crestview 7, TATE 28. The full report has the projection, unit grades, storylines, pregame notes, Big Game Watch, series history, season stats and both rosters.
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TATE | 53.5 (-6.7) | 80.7 (+70.5) | 46.6 (+0.8) | 81.2 (-69.4) |
| CRESTVIEW | 68.4 (+26.1) | 77.9 (+60.6) | 30.6 (+24.0) | 45.8 (+4.7) |
Rank chips: 1 = best in the pool; blue strong, red weak. Yardage and efficiency use games with a full box score on file; points and turnovers use every played game. Unit Index = opponent-adjusted 0-100 league percentile.
Crestview has been tested more: its schedule to date ranks #62 in the pool against #190 for TATE.
| COMPONENT | POINTS | WEIGHT | CONTRIBUTION |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common Opponents | -3.82 | 27% | -1.04 |
| Strength | +7.74 | 21% | +1.64 |
| Efficiency | +1.05 | 18% | +0.19 |
| Own Margin | +13.68 | 17% | +2.29 |
| Head To Head | +16.64 | 17% | +2.76 |
| Garbage Time Margin | -- | 0% | +0.00 |
| EPA Efficiency | -- | 0% | +0.00 |
Mark players out to re-project this game. Each value is how much of the margin that player is worth, from this season's data (his share of his team's win shares). Estimates — your selections change only your view.
| CATEGORY | TEAM | PROJECTED |
|---|---|---|
| Passing | TATE | 182.5 |
| Passing | CRESTVIEW | 179.3 |
| Rushing | TATE | 213.3 |
| Rushing | CRESTVIEW | 106.1 |
| Total | TATE | 395.8 |
| Total | CRESTVIEW | 285.3 |
| TATE — PASSING | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| C. PIERCE | 4.9/14.0 | 35.0% | 182.5 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 141.2 |
| TATE — RUSHING | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| E. PITTMAN | 20.9 | 156.3 | 7.5 | 0.0 |
| C. PIERCE | 2.1 | 57.0 | 27.5 | 0.0 |
| TOTALS | 23.0 | 213.3 | 9.3 | 0.0 |
| TATE — RECEIVING | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | REC | YDS | YPC | TD |
| E. BRYANT | 7.1 | 96.3 | 13.5 | 0.0 |
| Q. CRENSHAW | 5.1 | 86.2 | 17.0 | 0.0 |
| TOTALS | 12.2 | 182.5 | 15.0 | 0.0 |
The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: TATE's yards per play allowed. The Aggies allowed 6.8 yards per play (381 yards on 56 snaps) against Crestview on 9/11, well above their 5.2 mark in every other game this season. Despite that, TATE won the game 28-7. TATE got away with it once; counting on that again would be a risk.
TATE's passing game looks worse on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. TATE averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt (961 yards on 119 attempts) on the season, #243 in section, but that number is dragged down by a 162-yard game on 35 attempts against PACE on 10/23. In all other games, TATE is at 9.5 yards per pass attempt (799 yards on 84 attempts), a figure that would rank #118 in section. PACE's pass defense sits near the middle of the pack (8.7 yards per attempt, #354 of 560). Against Crestview, TATE draws a middle-of-the-pack pass defense (7.4 yards per attempt, #221), so expect something closer to the 9.5 version.
The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: Crestview's pass defense. The Bulldogs allowed 9.6 yards per pass attempt (173 yards on 18 attempts) against TATE on 9/11, well above their 7.2 mark in every other game this season. Crestview lost the game 28-7. A pass defense number closer to Crestview's norm would go a long way toward flipping the result this time.
The TATE defense that opened the season is not the one that has taken the field lately. The Aggies allowed 11.8 points per game over their first 4 games (3-1), #88 in section during that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), TATE has allowed 23.3 points per game, a 99% rise, #289 in section during that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: TATE's last 3 opponents have averaged 26.8 points per game, a #218 offense in section on the season, against 20.2 points per game, #349 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (26.8 points per game), TATE held those offenses 13% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, the Aggies rank #161 in section in scoring defense. Crestview's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #299 in section (22.3 points per game). TATE is 4-1 this season when it holds opponents under 23, and 0-2 when it doesn't.
Something changed for Crestview's ball security after the first 5 games of the season. Crestview committed 2.4 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (0-5), #482 in section over that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Bulldogs have committed 1.2 giveaways per game, a 48% drop, #254 in section over that timeframe. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.6 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.5 per game), Crestview turned it over 19% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #191 in section, well below the first 5 (#96), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Crestview ranks #437 in section in giveaways. TATE's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #202 in section (1.6 per game).
Crestview's passing game has thrown the ball better as the season has worn on. The Bulldogs averaged 6.3 yards per pass attempt (586 yards on 93 attempts) over their first 5 games (0-5), #369 in section over that span. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), Crestview has averaged 9.0 yards per pass attempt (767 yards on 85 attempts), a 43% rise, #180 in section in that timeframe. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Crestview's last 4 opponents have averaged 8.5 yards per attempt, a #331 pass defense in section on the season, against 7.2 yards per attempt, #186 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.5 yards per attempt), Crestview threw for 6% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #191 in section, well below the first 5 (#96), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Bulldogs rank #276 in section in passing. TATE's pass defense sits in the middle of the pack, #240 in section (7.6 yards per attempt).
If there's one number to watch in this matchup, it's Crestview's scoring. Crestview averaged 12.8 points per game over its first 5 games (0-5), #449 in section in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Bulldogs have averaged 34.2 points per game, a 168% rise, #126 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Crestview's last 4 opponents have averaged 29.6 points per game, a #416 scoring defense in section on the season, against 21.4 points per game, #261 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (29.6 points per game), Crestview scored 16% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #191 in section, well below the first 5 (#96), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, TATE's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Aggies have allowed 19.2 points per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #218 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (25.7 points per game on the season, which would rank #232). Against those norms, TATE held those offenses 25% below what they usually score. TATE offers Crestview a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Crestview is 2-3 this season when it scores 17 or more, and 0-4 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle has the potential to swing this matchup, with the recent returns favoring TATE. Crestview forced 1.4 takeaways per game over its first 5 games (0-5), #251 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Bulldogs have forced 0.5 takeaways per game, a 64% drop, #444 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Crestview's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.0 per game, a #126 offense in section on the season, against 1.3 per game, #269 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.0 per game), Crestview forced 50% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #191 in section, well below the first 5 (#96), which makes the dip harder to excuse. Meanwhile, TATE's ball security has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Aggies have committed 1.2 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #254 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (1.2 per game on the season, which would rank #321). TATE offers Crestview a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.
Crestview averaged 5.9 yards per play (1,425 yards on 240 snaps) over its first 5 games (0-5), #345 in section within that period. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Bulldogs have averaged 8.5 yards per play (1,735 yards on 204 snaps), a 43% rise, #122 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Crestview's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.6 yards per play, a #390 defense in section on the season, against 5.9 yards per play, #161 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.6 yards per play), Crestview gained 12% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #191 in section, well below the first 5 (#96), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, TATE's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Aggies have allowed 5.6 yards per play (1,122 yards on 202 snaps) over their last 4 games (2-2), #139 in section during those games. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (6.4 yards per play on the season, which would rank #302). Against those norms, TATE held those offenses 13% below their usual yards per snap. Something has to give when Crestview's surging offense meets one of section's better units in TATE's.
• Club Crestview has gone 8 straight games averaging 5.0+ yards per carry (August 28, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 2-6 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Tate has gone 4 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (September 11, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 2-2 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Crestview has gone 4 straight games rushing for 100+ yards (September 25, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 2-2 over that stretch, matching the program record of 4 straight on record.
• Club Tate has lost 2 straight, and a loss would make it 3 in a row. The last time they lost 3 or more in a row was 2023, a run of 3.
• Club Tate has gone 4 straight games averaging 5.0+ yards per carry (September 11, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 2-2 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Crestview has gone 4 straight games averaging 6.0+ yards per play (September 25, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 2-2 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Tate is 12-2 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points. Tate's last loss when holding the opponent under 10 points was September 4, 2026 against Escambia (L, 3-6).
• Club Tate is 4-3 entering play against Crestview, a start the program has had 1 time before in 5 seasons on record -- most recently 2023, which finished 5-5.
• Club Crestview has gone 4 straight games forcing fewer than 2 turnovers (September 25, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 2-2 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Crestview has scored 110 points over its last 3 games (36.7 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its 5th-highest 3-game total on record; the most is 132, from October 21, 2022 through November 3, 2022.
• Series Tate leads the all-time series with Crestview 2-1, across 3 meetings dating to 2024.
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
--- TATE ---
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 4-3 so far | 6-3 (50%) | 5.4-3.6 |
| League | 1-2 so far | 1-2 (100%) | 1.0-2.0 |
--- CRESTVIEW ---
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 2-7 so far | 2-8 (66%) | 2.3-7.7 |
| League | 1-3 so far | 1-3 (100%) | 1.0-3.0 |
• CRE's offense has exceeded 5.0 YPC in 8 straight games (08/28/2026-10/23/2026), going 2-6 over that stretch.
• TAT's offense has averaged 1.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 1.0 giveaways per game. (+67%)
• CRE's offense has averaged 36.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 22.3 points scored per game. (+64%)
• TAT is 3-0 (.999) when it wins the turnover battle
• CRE holds its opponents under 6.6 yards per attempt (CRE's own median) (.667)
• CRE's offense has averaged 281.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 200.8 rush yards per game. (+40%)
• TAT's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 4 straight games (09/11/2026-10/23/2026), going 2-2 over that stretch.
• TAT's offense has exceeded 150 rush yds in 4 straight games (09/11/2026-10/23/2026), going 2-2 over that stretch.
• TAT's offense has exceeded 5.0 YPC in 4 straight games (09/11/2026-10/23/2026), going 2-2 over that stretch.
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
CRE -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 5 scored; vs 431 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | DEF | Turnovers < 3 | 2-6 | .250 | 31.4 | W1 | 0.900 |
| 2 | OFF | Rush Yds 100+ | 2-6 | .250 | 24.4 | W1 | 0.784 |
| 3 | OFF | YPC 5+ | 2-6 | .250 | 23.9 | W1 | 0.740 |
| 4 | DEF | Rush Yds 100+ | 1-7 | .125 | 34.6 | W1 | 0.197 |
| 5 | OFF | Turnovers 1+ | 1-7 | .125 | 19.9 | L1 | 0.156 |
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 4)
TAT: 1 of 7 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .222 across those game(s).
CRE: 1 of 9 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .571 across those game(s).
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- TAT ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | L2 |
| TAT averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 4-1 | .800 | 31.8 | L1 |
| TAT holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | L1 |
| TAT holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | L1 |
| TAT holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | L1 |
| TAT rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 3-1 | .750 | 24.5 | L1 |
--- CRE ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| CRE averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards | 2-3 | .400 | 30.2 | W1 |
| CRE rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 1-3 | .250 | 23.2 | W1 |
| CRE averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards | 2-2 | .500 | 34.8 | W1 |
| CRE averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards | 1-3 | .250 | 25.5 | L1 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| TAT | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 |
| TAT | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 4-1 | .800 | 31.8 |
| TAT | Rush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 200 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 |
| TAT | YPA < 8.0 & YPC < 5.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 |
| TAT | YPC < 5.0 & Rush Yds < 150 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 |
| TAT | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 3-1 | .750 | 24.5 |
| CRE | YPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 2-3 | .400 | 30.2 |
| CRE | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 1-3 | .250 | 23.2 |
| CRE | YPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+ | 2-2 | .500 | 34.8 |
| CRE | YPA 8.0+ & Pass Yds 200+ | 1-3 | .250 | 25.5 |
The next meeting brings together Tate (4-3 this season) and Crestview (2-7). The SP Strength Index has Tate at #136 and Crestview at #208 of 583 in the FL section. Tate leads the recent series 2-1 over the last 3 meetings. In the most recent meeting, on September 11, 2026, Tate pulled away 28-7.
Having dropped 5 of its last 7 entering play, Crestview's pass defense has been the team's calling card (held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 4 of its last 5, 2-3 in that stretch). That carried into last time out, the Bulldogs handling Navarre 42-10.
The matchup within the matchup. Crestview's pass defense has been playing at a high level over the Bulldogs' last 5 games. The defense has held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 4 of the 5 games while averaging 103.4 passing yards allowed per game (including a low of 47 in that span vs. Coffee). That is 55% below the Bulldogs' baseline of 231.2 yards per game over the 4 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Bulldogs have gone 2-3 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Tate. Tate has averaged 145.3 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.
ONE-SIDED — Crestview's rush defense has been a real vulnerability over the Bulldogs' last 5 games. The defense has conceded 100+ rushing yards in 4 of the 5 games while averaging 216.4 rushing yards allowed per game (including a high of 379 in that span vs. Pace). That is 37% above the Bulldogs' baseline of 158.5 yards per game over the 4 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Bulldogs have gone 2-3 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Tate. Tate has averaged 211.1 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.
ONE-SIDED — Crestview's passing attack has been playing at a high level over the Bulldogs' last 5 games. The offense has threw for 200+ yards in 3 of the 5 games while averaging 166.8 passing yards per game (including a high of 251 in that span vs. Niceville). That is 29% above the Bulldogs' baseline of 129.8 yards per game over the 4 games prior — a clear jump; the Bulldogs have gone 2-3 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Tate. Tate has averaged 148.3 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 3-1 | .750 | 33.8 | L1 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.0 | L2 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 36.5 | L1 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-2 | .600 | 20.2 | L1 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | L2 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | L1 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | L2 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | L1 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | L2 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | L1 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 4-1 | .800 | 31.8 | L1 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 7.5 | L2 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 3-1 | .750 | 33.8 | L1 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.0 | L2 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-2 | .500 | 29.8 | L2 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 2-1 | .667 | 18.3 | W1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 1-1 | .500 | 26.0 | L1 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 12.0 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-4 | .200 | 22.4 | L1 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-3 | .250 | 22.2 | W1 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-3 | .250 | 25.5 | L1 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 1-4 | .200 | 19.8 | W1 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-6 | .250 | 24.4 | W1 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-1 | .000 | 6.0 | L1 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 2-4 | .333 | 26.8 | W1 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-3 | .000 | 13.3 | L3 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-6 | .250 | 23.9 | W1 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 10.0 | L1 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-4 | .333 | 28.8 | W1 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-3 | .000 | 9.3 | L3 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 2-2 | .500 | 34.2 | W1 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 0-5 | .000 | 12.8 | L5 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-7 | .125 | 19.9 | L1 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 42.0 | W1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-4 | .000 | 16.5 | L4 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-3 | .000 | 18.0 | L3 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | L1 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W1 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 3-3 | .500 | 18.3 | L2 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-3 | .500 | 18.3 | L2 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W1 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | L1 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 4-2 | .667 | 13.8 | L1 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | L1 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | L1 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | L1 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 13.8 | L1 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-1 | .750 | 15.2 | L1 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-2 | .333 | 18.7 | L2 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.0 | W3 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.0 | W3 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 0-4 | .000 | 41.5 | L4 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 2-3 | .400 | 26.4 | W2 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 0-3 | .000 | 31.0 | L3 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-4 | .333 | 34.2 | W2 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-7 | .125 | 34.6 | W1 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 21.0 | W1 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-5 | .000 | 43.2 | L5 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 2-2 | .500 | 20.5 | W2 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-5 | .167 | 37.7 | W1 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | W1 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 41.4 | L5 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 22.8 | W2 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 41.4 | L5 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 22.8 | W2 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-4 | .200 | 36.2 | L1 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-3 | .250 | 29.2 | W1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-2 | .000 | 30.0 | L2 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-1 | .000 | 47.0 | L1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-1 | .000 | 12.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 26.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-1 | .500 | 33.5 |
| Scores 40+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 40.0 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 2-1 | .667 | 6.7 |
| Allows 10-19 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-1 | .500 | 25.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 |
| Allows 40+ | -- | -- | -- |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-2 | .000 | 6.5 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-2 | .000 | 11.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 1-2 | .333 | 27.7 |
| Scores 30-39 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 40+ | 1-1 | .500 | 41.5 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 10-19 | 1-1 | .500 | 11.5 |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-1 | .500 | 24.5 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-1 | .000 | 38.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-4 | .000 | 47.0 |
TATE
• TATE has rushed for 200+ in 2 straight games (9/25/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
CRESTVIEW
• CRESTVIEW has scored 40+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• CRESTVIEW has rushed for 200+ in 3 straight games (10/2/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• CRESTVIEW has scored 30+ in 2 straight games (10/16/26–10/23/26). It has not scored 30+ in 3 straight since 10/20/23–8/23/24 (2024).
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 33.8 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.0 | L2 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 36.5 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 20.2 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | L2 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | L2 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | L2 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 5 | 4-1 | .800 | 31.8 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 7.5 | L2 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 33.8 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.0 | L2 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 29.8 | L2 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 18.3 | W1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 26.0 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 12.0 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 12.0 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 26.0 | W2 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 33.5 | L1 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 40.0 | W1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 18.3 | L2 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 18.3 | L2 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 13.8 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 13.8 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 15.2 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 18.7 | L2 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.0 | W3 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.0 | W3 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 6.7 | W2 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 13.0 | W1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 25.0 | L1 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | L1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 22.4 | L1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 22.2 | W1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 25.5 | L1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 19.8 | W1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 24.4 | W1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 6.0 | L1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 26.8 | W1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 13.3 | L3 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 23.9 | W1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 10.0 | L1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 28.8 | W1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 9.3 | L3 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 34.2 | W1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 12.8 | L5 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 19.9 | L1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 42.0 | W1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 16.5 | L4 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 18.0 | L3 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 6.5 | L2 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 11.0 | L2 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 27.7 | W1 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 41.5 | W1 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 41.5 | L4 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 26.4 | W2 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 31.0 | L3 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 34.2 | W2 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 34.6 | W1 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 21.0 | W1 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 43.2 | L5 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 20.5 | W2 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 37.7 | W1 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | W1 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 41.4 | L5 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 22.8 | W2 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 41.4 | L5 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 22.8 | W2 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 36.2 | L1 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 29.2 | W1 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 30.0 | L2 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 47.0 | L1 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 11.5 | W1 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 24.5 | W1 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 38.0 | L1 |
| CRE | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 47.0 | L4 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 4 games | 09/11/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 4 games | 09/11/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 games | 09/11/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 3 games | 09/17/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
| DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 3 games | 09/17/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 8 games | 08/28/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-6 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 4 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 4 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 3 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-1 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 4 games | 09/11/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 4 games | 09/11/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 games | 09/11/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 3 games | 09/17/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
| TAT | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 3 games | 09/17/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 8 games | 08/28/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-6 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 4 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 4 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-2 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 3 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-1 |
Each pair of rows above is tinted by the gap between the two teams' win% in that scenario, judged for the HOME team (the bottom row):
GRAY = negligible gap (.000-.050)
PURPLE = solid gap (.051-.150)
GREEN = big gap (.151+), favoring the home team
RED = big gap (.151+), against the home team
| 100 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | OVER | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | L2 |
| CRE | DEF | OVER | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 34.6 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | UNDER | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | L1 |
| CRE | DEF | UNDER | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 21.0 | W1 |
| 150 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | OVER | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | L2 |
| CRE | DEF | OVER | 5 | 0-5 | .000 | 43.2 | L5 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | UNDER | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | L1 |
| CRE | DEF | UNDER | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 20.5 | W2 |
| YPC 5.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | OVER | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | L2 |
| CRE | DEF | OVER | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 37.7 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | UNDER | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | L1 |
| CRE | DEF | UNDER | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | W1 |
| YPA 8.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | OVER | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 33.8 | L1 |
| CRE | DEF | OVER | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 41.5 | L4 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | UNDER | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.0 | L2 |
| CRE | DEF | UNDER | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 26.4 | W2 |
| 200 PASS YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | OVER | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 36.5 | L1 |
| CRE | DEF | OVER | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 31.0 | L3 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | UNDER | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 20.2 | L1 |
| CRE | DEF | UNDER | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 34.2 | W2 |
| 0 TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | ZERO | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 18.3 | W1 |
| CRE | DEF | ZERO | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 29.2 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | OVER | 4 | 2-2 | .500 | 29.8 | L2 |
| CRE | DEF | OVER | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 36.2 | L1 |
| 2+ TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | OVER | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 26.0 | L1 |
| CRE | DEF | OVER | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 30.0 | L2 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | UNDER | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 24.4 | L1 |
| CRE | DEF | UNDER | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 34.0 | W1 |
| >2 TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | OVER | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 12.0 | L1 |
| CRE | DEF | OVER | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 47.0 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | OFF | UNDER | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 27.0 | L1 |
| CRE | DEF | UNDER | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 31.4 | W1 |
| 100 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | OVER | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 18.3 | L2 |
| CRE | OFF | OVER | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 24.4 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | UNDER | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W1 |
| CRE | OFF | UNDER | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 6.0 | L1 |
| 150 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | OVER | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | L1 |
| CRE | OFF | OVER | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 26.8 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | UNDER | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 13.8 | L1 |
| CRE | OFF | UNDER | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 13.3 | L3 |
| YPC 5.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | OVER | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 |
| CRE | OFF | OVER | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 23.9 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | UNDER | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | L1 |
| CRE | OFF | UNDER | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 10.0 | L1 |
| YPA 8.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | OVER | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | L1 |
| CRE | OFF | OVER | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 22.4 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | UNDER | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | L1 |
| CRE | OFF | UNDER | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 22.2 | W1 |
| 200 PASS YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | OVER | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W1 |
| CRE | OFF | OVER | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 25.5 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | UNDER | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 18.3 | L2 |
| CRE | OFF | UNDER | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 19.8 | W1 |
| 0 TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | ZERO | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 18.7 | L2 |
| CRE | OFF | ZERO | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 42.0 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | OVER | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 15.2 | L1 |
| CRE | OFF | OVER | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 19.9 | L1 |
| 2+ TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | OVER | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.0 | W3 |
| CRE | OFF | OVER | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 16.5 | L4 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | UNDER | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 22.5 | L3 |
| CRE | OFF | UNDER | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 27.0 | W2 |
| >2 TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | OVER | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.0 | W3 |
| CRE | OFF | OVER | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 18.0 | L3 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| TAT | DEF | UNDER | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 22.5 | L3 |
| CRE | OFF | UNDER | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 24.5 | W2 |
TAT OFFENSE
TAT's offense has averaged 1.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 1.0 giveaways per game. (+67%)
CRE OFFENSE
CRE's offense has averaged 36.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 22.3 points scored per game. (+64%)
CRE's offense has averaged 281.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 200.8 rush yards per game. (+40%)
CRE's offense has averaged 461.3 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 351.1 total yards per game. (+31%)
CRE's offense has averaged 1.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 1.9 giveaways per game. (-29%)
TAT DEFENSE
TAT's defense has averaged 23.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 16.7 points allowed per game. (+40%)
CRE DEFENSE
CRE's defense has averaged 103.4 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 160.2 pass yards per game. (-35%)
CRE's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 1.0 takeaways per game. (-33%)
CRE's defense has averaged 137.7 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 190.7 rush yards per game. (-28%)
CRE's defense has averaged 24.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 33.1 points allowed per game. (-27%)
CRE's defense has averaged 5.6 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 7.2 YPA. (-22%)
CRE's defense has averaged 276.7 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 350.9 total yards per game. (-21%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 2, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- GAME PROJECTION -- FULL DETAIL (report pages 1-2)
Library-native projection: computed directly from the game library (slate_projection.SlateEngine), not the Excel workbook engine. This section does not yet include: an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only).
Note 2 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Note 4 -- OPPONENT STRENGTH (best-effort) -- why this is often empty
Only meaningful for a game against an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team on this workbook -- with just a couple of teams tracked, that's rare (mainly a direct matchup between them, if this run covers both); every other opponent has no win% on file here at all, so most of a team's schedule simply has no strength data to show.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- MATCHUP CONFLICTS — TAB-SEPARATED (13 columns)
| Team1 | Side1 | Split1 | Record1 | Win%1 | PPG1 | Team2 | Side2 | Split2 | Record2 | Win%2 | PPG2 | Relevance |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 7.5 | CRE | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 41.4 | 1.000 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | CRE | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 0-5 | .000 | 43.2 | 1.000 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 0-5 | .000 | 12.8 | TAT | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | 1.000 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 0-3 | .000 | 13.3 | TAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | 1.000 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | CRE | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 1-7 | .125 | 34.6 | 0.875 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 3.0 | CRE | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 1-5 | .167 | 37.7 | 0.833 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 1-4 | .200 | 19.8 | TAT | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | 0.800 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 2-6 | .250 | 24.4 | TAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | 0.750 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 42.0 | TAT | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 3-1 | .750 | 15.2 | 0.750 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.0 | CRE | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 0-5 | .000 | 41.4 | 0.667 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 13.0 | CRE | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 0-4 | .000 | 41.5 | 0.667 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | CRE | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 21.0 | 0.667 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 3-2 | .600 | 20.2 | CRE | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 0-3 | .000 | 31.0 | 0.600 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 1-7 | .125 | 19.9 | TAT | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1-2 | .333 | 18.7 | 0.542 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 0-1 | .000 | 6.0 | TAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3-3 | .500 | 18.3 | 0.500 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 0-3 | .000 | 9.3 | TAT | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | 0.500 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 10.0 | TAT | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | 0.500 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 2-1 | .667 | 18.3 | CRE | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 1-4 | .200 | 36.2 | 0.467 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 1-4 | .200 | 22.4 | TAT | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | 0.400 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 2-6 | .250 | 23.9 | TAT | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | 0.350 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 3-1 | .750 | 33.8 | CRE | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 2-3 | .400 | 26.4 | 0.350 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 2-4 | .333 | 26.8 | TAT | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 4-2 | .667 | 13.8 | 0.333 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | CRE | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 1-2 | .333 | 24.0 | 0.333 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4-1 | .800 | 31.8 | CRE | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 22.8 | 0.300 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 2-4 | .333 | 28.8 | TAT | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 3-2 | .600 | 15.2 | 0.267 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1-3 | .250 | 25.5 | TAT | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 3-3 | .500 | 18.3 | 0.250 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3-1 | .750 | 33.8 | CRE | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 2-2 | .500 | 22.8 | 0.250 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 2-2 | .500 | 29.8 | CRE | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1-3 | .250 | 29.2 | 0.250 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 1-3 | .250 | 22.2 | TAT | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 1-1 | .500 | 20.5 | 0.250 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 36.5 | CRE | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 2-4 | .333 | 34.2 | 0.167 |
| TAT | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 4-2 | .667 | 28.5 | CRE | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 2-2 | .500 | 20.5 | 0.167 |
| CRE | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 2-2 | .500 | 34.2 | TAT | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 13.8 | 0.167 |
Data Export 2 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| CRE | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 5 | 103.4 | 9 | 160.2 | -35.5% | |
| CRE | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 24.3 | 9 | 33.1 | -26.5% | |
| CRE | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 36.7 | 9 | 22.3 | +64.2% | |
| CRE | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 137.7 | 9 | 190.7 | -27.8% | |
| CRE | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 281.3 | 9 | 200.8 | +40.1% | |
| CRE | DEFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 276.7 | 9 | 350.9 | -21.2% | |
| CRE | OFFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 461.3 | 9 | 351.1 | +31.4% | |
| CRE | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.7 | 9 | 1.0 | -33.3% | |
| CRE | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.3 | 9 | 1.9 | -29.4% | |
| CRE | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 5 | 5.6 | 9 | 7.2 | -22.4% | |
| TAT | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 23.3 | 7 | 16.7 | +39.6% | |
| TAT | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 1.7 | 7 | 1.0 | +66.7% |
