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AT A GLANCE

In short: Liberty (4-5) at POLY (5-4), October 30, 2026 (CIF-SS high school football). ScorePirate projects Liberty 24-20 (59% to win). The full report has the projection, unit grades, storylines, pregame notes, Big Game Watch, series history, season stats and both rosters.

LIBERTY
SCOREPIRATE MATCHUP REPORT · FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2026
LIBERTY (AWAY) AT POLY (HOME)
LIBERTY 24.5  —  20.1 POLY
LIBERTY 58.9% FAVORITES
POLY
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⚠ POLY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME @ VISTA DEL LAGO* MISSING
⚠ POLY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/17/2026 GAME VS. RANCHO VERDE* MISSING
⚠ POLY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/10/2026 GAME VS. RANCHO CHRISTIAN* MISSING
⚠ POLY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/02/2026 GAME @ ORANGE VISTA* MISSING
⚠ POLY OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/17/2026 GAME @ RAMONA MISSING
Figures are subject to change when the box score posts.
UNIT INDEX — GRADE (YDS VS AVG)
TEAMPASS ORUSH OPASS DRUSH D
LIBERTY40.8 (-33.7)75.7 (+53.2)76.0 (-41.6)51.5 (-5.5)
POLY61.6 (+9.8)16.4 (-92.3)50.8 (-4.7)61.3 (-25.5)
LIBERTY AT POLY
ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW · 2026 SEASON
RANKS VS CIF Southern Section · 432 teams DOWNLOAD CARD AS PDFDOWNLOAD AS JPEG
WIN PROB
58.9%
PROJ PTS
24.5
·
SP STRENGTH INDEX··
UNIT INDEX··
OFF··
DEF··
POINTS / GAME··
OFF··
DEF··
YARDS / GAME··
PASS··
RUSH··
YARDS ALLOWED / G··
PASS··
RUSH··
YARDS / PLAY··
OFF··
DEF··
TURNOVER MARGIN··
TAKEAWAYS··
GIVEAWAYS··
SACKS / GAME··
DEF MADE··
OFF ALLOWED··
PLAY CALLS (OFF)·
RUSH·
PLAYS FACED (DEF)·
RUSH·
LIBE OFF VS POLY DEF
··RUSH YDS / G··
··YDS / CARRY··
··PASS YDS / G··
··YDS / ATTEMPT··
··POINTS / G··
··RUSH O / RUSH D INDEX··
··PASS O / PASS D INDEX··
··TURNOVERS LOST / FORCED··
··SACKS ALLOWED / MADE··
POLY OFF VS LIBE DEF
··RUSH YDS / G··
··YDS / CARRY··
··PASS YDS / G··
··YDS / ATTEMPT··
··POINTS / G··
··RUSH O / RUSH D INDEX··
··PASS O / PASS D INDEX··
··TURNOVERS LOST / FORCED··
··SACKS ALLOWED / MADE··
WIN PROB
41.1%
PROJ PTS
20.1
·
··SP STRENGTH INDEX
··UNIT INDEX
··OFF
··DEF
··POINTS / GAME
··OFF
··DEF
··YARDS / GAME
··PASS
··RUSH
··YARDS ALLOWED / G
··PASS
··RUSH
··YARDS / PLAY
··OFF
··DEF
··TURNOVER MARGIN
··TAKEAWAYS
··GIVEAWAYS
··SACKS / GAME
··DEF MADE
··OFF ALLOWED
·PLAY CALLS (OFF)
·RUSH
·PLAYS FACED (DEF)
·RUSH

Rank chips: 1 = best in the pool; blue strong, red weak. Yardage and efficiency use games with a full box score on file; points and turnovers use every played game. Unit Index = opponent-adjusted 0-100 league percentile.

PROJECTION COMPONENTS
COMPONENTPOINTSWEIGHTCONTRIBUTION
Common Opponents+12.0237%+4.41
Strength+4.5724%+1.11
Own Margin+4.9020%+0.96
Efficiency+1.0420%+0.20
Head To Head--0%+0.00
Garbage Time Margin--0%+0.00
EPA Efficiency--0%+0.00
What if he’s out?

Mark players out to re-project this game. Each value is how much of the margin that player is worth, from this season's data (his share of his team's win shares). Estimates — your selections change only your view.

PROJECTED TEAM YARDAGE
CATEGORYTEAMPROJECTED
PassingLIBERTY106.0
PassingPOLY105.4
RushingLIBERTY159.1
RushingPOLY110.3
TotalLIBERTY265.1
TotalPOLY215.7
PROJECTED BOX SCORE
LIBERTY — PASSING
PLAYERC/ATTCOMP %YDSYPATDINTQBR
JULIAN GALLARDO5.3/9.158.4%106.011.61.40.2201.4
LIBERTY — RUSHING
PLAYERCARYDSYPCTD
CHRISTOPHER DEBOSE18.680.04.30.7
GAVIN RAMIREZ9.245.95.00.6
NATHAN AYALA6.433.25.20.3
TOTALS34.2159.14.71.5
LIBERTY — RECEIVING
PLAYERRECYDSYPCTD
DOMINIC HALL3.054.018.00.8
NATHAN AYALA1.526.618.00.2
RILEY SILVA2.225.411.40.1
TOTALS6.7106.015.81.2
POLY — PASSING
PLAYERC/ATTCOMP %YDSYPATDINTQBR
MARJOK GUSTAFSON8.2/13.759.6%79.65.81.00.4128.3
SHILOH WILMOTH4.0/6.858.9%25.83.80.20.294.7
TOTALS12.2/20.559.4%105.45.11.30.6117.1
POLY — RUSHING
PLAYERCARYDSYPCTD
SIMEON ZUNIGHA12.756.84.50.6
MARJOK GUSTAFSON3.933.08.50.4
ETHAN WILLIAMS3.920.55.20.2
TOTALS20.6110.35.41.2
POLY — RECEIVING
PLAYERRECYDSYPCTD
ZACH MICHEL1.933.217.60.4
NASIR SHAHID1.526.818.00.2
KEVIN WILLIAMS1.524.616.20.1
JORGE ISLAS3.120.86.70.2
TOTALS8.0105.413.21.0
PREGAME NOTES

Friday's meeting brings together Liberty (4-5 this season) and Poly (5-4). The SP Strength Index has Liberty at #123 and Poly at #156 of 431 in the CIF-Southern Section.

The projection engine makes Liberty a 59% favorite, projecting a 24-20 final in favor of the Bison, off the full five-component blend of both teams' multi-season logs.

POLY allowed 4.6 yards per pass attempt (336 yards on 73 attempts) over its first 4 games (3-1), #33 in CIF-SS during that period. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Bears have allowed 8.9 yards per pass attempt (697 yards on 78 attempts), a 94% rise, #257 in CIF-SS during that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 7.2 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.0 yards per attempt), POLY allowed 27% more per attempt than those passing attacks usually gain. On the season, POLY ranks #113 in CIF-SS in pass defense. It won't get any easier against Liberty, whose passing game ranks #27 in CIF-SS (11.1 yards per attempt).

Something changed for Liberty's defense after the first 6 games of the season. Liberty allowed 24.0 points per game over its first 6 games (2-4), #215 in CIF-SS over that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (2-1), the Bison have allowed 9.3 points per game, a 61% drop, #40 in CIF-SS over that timeframe. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Liberty's last 3 opponents have averaged 17.4 points per game, a #318 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 26.2 points per game, #180 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (17.4 points per game), Liberty held those offenses 46% below what they usually score. On the season, Liberty ranks #130 in CIF-SS in scoring defense. The trend lines up well against POLY, whose offense ranks just #323 of 404 (17.0 points per game). Liberty is 3-2 this season when it holds opponents under 17, and 1-3 when it doesn't.

POLY's offense has scored more as the season has worn on. The Bears averaged 13.2 points per game over their first 4 games (3-1), #344 in CIF-SS over that span. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), POLY has averaged 20.0 points per game, a 51% rise, #255 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. The schedule has a lot to do with it: POLY's last 5 opponents have averaged 21.1 points per game, a #165 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 24.3 points per game, #220 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (21.1 points per game), POLY scored 5% less than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. On the season, the Bears rank #323 in CIF-SS in scoring. Liberty's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #130 in CIF-SS (19.1 points per game). POLY is 3-1 this season when it scores 20 or more, and 2-3 when it doesn't.

Liberty's offense has gone quiet as the season has progressed. The Bison averaged 33.0 points per game over their first 4 games (2-2), #93 in CIF-SS in that window. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), Liberty has averaged 20.0 points per game, a 39% drop, #255 in CIF-SS during that time. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Liberty's last 5 opponents have averaged 20.9 points per game, a #163 scoring defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 24.2 points per game, #218 for the first 4. Liberty was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 7 against Paloma Valley on 9/25. On the season, the Bison rank #186 in CIF-SS in scoring. POLY's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #126 in CIF-SS (19.0 points per game). Liberty is 4-1 this season when it scores 19 or more, and 0-4 when it doesn't.

Liberty's ground game has run the ball less effectively as the weeks have passed. Liberty averaged 6.4 yards per carry (924 yards on 145 rushes) over its first 4 games (2-2), #119 in CIF-SS through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Bison have averaged 4.6 yards per carry (702 yards on 153 rushes), a 28% drop, #260 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Liberty's last 5 opponents have averaged 4.9 yards per carry, a #111 run defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 5.6 yards per carry, #200 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.9 yards per carry), Liberty ran for 7% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. On the season, Liberty ranks #202 in CIF-SS in rushing. POLY's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #205 in CIF-SS (5.7 yards per carry).

Liberty's run defense has been run over as the year has continued. The Bison allowed 4.6 yards per carry (430 yards on 94 rushes) over their first 4 games (2-2), #122 in CIF-SS over that stretch. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), Liberty has allowed 5.8 yards per carry (606 yards on 104 rushes), a 27% rise, #201 in CIF-SS within that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 4.8 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.9 yards per carry), Liberty allowed 20% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. On the season, the Bison rank #152 in CIF-SS in run defense. POLY's ground game, #353 of 380 (3.5 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Liberty needs.

BIG GAME WATCH

Players positioned for an outsized game because of this opponent: a player's share of his team's win shares, weighted by the tendencies of the team across from him. Only matchup-driven picks are shown.

Liberty

Nothing about this opponent moves one player ahead of the rest.

POLY

Nasir ShahidLB11 tackles and 3 TFLLiberty runs on 76% of its snaps, #26 of 357 in CIF-SS; 11 tackles and 3 TFL make him the one who has to clean it up
MILESTONE WATCH

Liberty

  • Luke Lesieur needs 1 tackle for 50 (averaging 7.0 a game)
  • Gavin Ramirez needs 2 tackles for 50 (averaging 5.3 a game)
  • Dominic Hall needs 67 receiving yards for 500 (averaging 54.1 a game)
STORYLINES

If there's one number to watch in this matchup, it's POLY's scoring defense. POLY allowed 12.5 points per game over its first 4 games (3-1), #61 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Bears have allowed 24.2 points per game, a 94% rise, #214 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: POLY's last 5 opponents have averaged 25.3 points per game, a #197 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 23.2 points per game, #231 for the first 4. Meanwhile, Liberty's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Bison have averaged 20.0 points per game over their last 5 games (2-3), #255 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in CIF-SS (20.9 points per game on the season, which would rank #163). Liberty offers POLY a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. POLY is 4-1 this season when it holds opponents under 26, and 1-3 when it doesn't.

The turnover battle has the potential to swing this matchup, with the recent returns favoring Liberty. Liberty committed 2.0 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (2-3), #331 in CIF-SS through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Bison have committed 0.5 giveaways per game, a 75% drop, #36 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Liberty's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.1 per game, a #241 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.3 per game, #186 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.1 per game), Liberty turned it over 56% less than those defenses usually force. Meanwhile, POLY's defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Bears have forced 1.0 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #233 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in CIF-SS (1.2 per game on the season, which would rank #209). Against those norms, POLY forced 20% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. POLY offers Liberty a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

The POLY defense that opened the season is not the one that has taken the field lately. POLY allowed 5.2 yards per play (915 yards on 176 snaps) over its first 4 games (3-1), #90 in CIF-SS within that period. In the 5 games since that hot start (2-3), the Bears have allowed 6.8 yards per play (1,609 yards on 236 snaps), a 31% rise, #214 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 6.2 yards per play on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.2 yards per play), POLY allowed 10% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. Meanwhile, Liberty's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Bison have averaged 6.0 yards per play (1,229 yards on 205 snaps) over their last 5 games (2-3), #227 in CIF-SS during those games. Those games came against some of the better defenses in CIF-SS (6.0 yards per play on the season, which would rank #129). Liberty offers POLY a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real.

Prep this game in Stat BoothLIBERTY team sheetPOLY team sheet
TIDBITS (16 found)

• Club The last time Poly went a game committing 3+ turnovers was September 22, 2023 against Redlands (L, 5-8). Since then Poly has gone 39 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers, a school-record 39 straight in the 22 seasons on record.

• Club Liberty is 15-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (15 such games).

• Club The last time Poly went a game throwing for 200+ yards was October 17, 2025 against Hillcrest (W, 33-27). Since then Poly has gone 13 straight games being held under 200 passing yards, a school-record 13 straight in the 22 seasons on record.

• Club Poly has lost 2 straight, and a loss would make it 3 in a row. The last time they lost 3 or more in a row was 2024, a run of 6.

• Club Liberty is 16-2 all time when forcing 2+ turnovers. Liberty's last loss when forcing 2+ turnovers was October 2, 2026 against Vista Del Lago (L, 14-30).

• Club Poly is 22-1 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points. Poly's last loss when holding the opponent under 10 points was September 22, 2023 against Redlands (L, 5-8).

• Player Julian Gallardo has 6 touchdown passes over his last 3 games (2.0 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Club Liberty is 4-5 entering play against Poly, a start the program has had 1 time before in 5 seasons on record -- most recently 2025, which finished 6-6.

• Player Marjok Gustafson has gone 2 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the 3rd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 7 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, during the 2025 season.

• Player Dominic Hall has 3 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Zach Michel has gone 2 straight games catching a touchdown pass, the longest such streak of his career.

• Player Keontae Greenberry has 25 tackles over his last 3 games (8.3 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 15, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch since the 28 he had from September 11, 2026 through September 25, 2026.

• Player Marjok Gustafson has gone 7 straight games without throwing for 200+ yards. The last time he threw for 200+ yards was October 17, 2025 against Hillcrest (W, 33-27) — 228 passing yards.

• Player Dominic Hall has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for Liberty, over a 25-game career on record. His career high is 84, set September 18, 2026 against Hemet (W, 33-30).

• Player Carter Lauritzen has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Liberty, over a 17-game career on record. His career high is 9, set November 14, 2025 against Pacifica (L, 7-13).

• Player Carson Alvarez has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Liberty, over a 22-game career on record. His career high is 6, set October 2, 2025 against Vista Del Lago (W, 26-19).

LIB — STAT LEADERS
FULL ROSTER ↓
OFFENSE
Julian Gallardo9 GMS
PASSING LEADER
1017PASS YDS
C-ATT54-92
COMP%58.7%
YPA11.1
TD13
INT3
QBR191.7
Gavin Ramirez9 GMS
RUSHING LEADER
543RUSH YDS
CAR79
YPC6.9
RUSH TD7
REC0
REC YDS0
YPR--
REC TD0
Christopher Debose7 GMS
RUSHING LEADER
400RUSH YDS
CAR73
YPC5.5
RUSH TD3
REC0
REC YDS0
YPR--
REC TD0
Dominic Hall8 GMS
RECEIVING LEADER
433REC YDS
REC18
YPR24.1
REC TD5
Nathan Ayala9 GMS
RECEIVING LEADER
221REC YDS
REC10
YPR22.1
REC TD2
DEFENSE
Keontae Greenberry8 GMS
TACKLES LEADER
61TCKL
TFL1.5
SACKS0
INT2
PD5
FF1
Luke Lesieur7 GMS
TACKLES LEADER
49TCKL
TFL3.5
SACKS0
INT0
PD0
FF1
Gavin Ramirez9 GMS
TACKLES LEADER
48TCKL
TFL3
SACKS0
INT0
PD1
FF0
Cayson Lauritzen9 GMS
TFL LEADER
4.5TFL
TCKL42
SACKS0
INT2
PD0
FF0
Nathan Ayala9 GMS
TFL LEADER
4TFL
TCKL19
SACKS0
INT0
PD0
FF1
Reid Kiser8 GMS
SACKS LEADER
2SACKS
TCKL38
TFL3.5
INT0
PD1
FF0
Jaylen Walker4 GMS
SACKS LEADER
1SACKS
TCKL5
TFL1.5
INT0
PD1
FF0
Damian Rowell8 GMS
INTERCEPTIONS LEADER
5INT
TCKL30
TFL0
SACKS0
PD3
FF0
POL — STAT LEADERS
FULL ROSTER ↓
OFFENSE
Marjok Gustafson3 GMS
PASSING LEADER
254PASS YDS
C-ATT23-33
COMP%69.7%
YPA7.7
TD2
INT2
QBR142.2
Simeon Zunigha4 GMS
RUSHING LEADER
141RUSH YDS
CAR40
YPC3.5
RUSH TD2
REC1
REC YDS0
YPR0.0
REC TD0
Ethan Williams3 GMS
RUSHING LEADER
101RUSH YDS
CAR27
YPC3.7
RUSH TD1
REC3
REC YDS19
YPR6.3
REC TD1
Zach Michel4 GMS
RECEIVING LEADER
179REC YDS
REC12
YPR14.9
REC TD2
Jorge Islas4 GMS
RECEIVING LEADER
100REC YDS
REC15
YPR6.7
REC TD1
DEFENSE
Brody Brackett3 GMS
TACKLES LEADER
19TCKL
TFL0
SACKS0
INT0
PD0
FF0
Jaxon Cabrera3 GMS
TACKLES LEADER
17TCKL
TFL0
SACKS0
INT0
PD0
FF0
Julian Romero3 GMS
TACKLES LEADER
16TCKL
TFL1
SACKS0
INT0
PD0
FF0
Nico Todorovski3 GMS
TFL LEADER
4TFL
TCKL14
SACKS1
INT0
PD0
FF0
Nasir Shahid4 GMS
TFL LEADER
3TFL
TCKL11
SACKS2
INT0
PD0
FF2
David Gildo3 GMS
SACKS LEADER
1SACKS
TCKL10
TFL1
INT0
PD0
FF0
Jeremiah Thompson3 GMS
SACKS LEADER
1SACKS
TCKL6
TFL1
INT0
PD0
FF0
LIBERTY — 2026 SEASON SCHEDULE
DATEOPPONENTSITERESULTSCOREWIN%
08/21TEMECULA VALLEYatL6-13
08/27SULTANAvsW55-7
09/11ELSINOREvsL38-47
09/18HEMETatW33-30
09/25PALOMA VALLEYvsL7-17
10/02VISTA DEL LAGOvsL14-30
10/09ORANGE VISTAvsW41-14
10/15RANCHO CHRISTIANatW28-0
10/23RANCHO VERDEvsL10-14
10/30POLYatPROJ24-2058.9%
SEASON TO DATE4-51 REMAINING
POLY — 2026 SEASON SCHEDULE
DATEOPPONENTSITERESULTSCOREWIN%
08/21HILLCRESTvsL13-40
08/28JW NORTHatW25-7
09/04REDLANDS EAST VALLEYatW13-3
09/11KINGvsW2-0
09/17RAMONAatW30-27
10/02ORANGE VISTAatL10-26
10/10RANCHO CHRISTIANvsW33-6
10/17RANCHO VERDEvsL0-11
10/23VISTA DEL LAGOatL27-51
10/30LIBERTYvsPROJ20-2441.1%
SEASON TO DATE5-41 REMAINING
SEASON OUTLOOK

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)

--- LIBERTY ---

RECORD TO DATEMOST LIKELY FINALPROJECTED RECORD
Overall4-5 so far5-5 (59%)4.6-5.4
League2-2 so far2-2 (100%)2.0-2.0

--- POLY ---

RECORD TO DATEMOST LIKELY FINALPROJECTED RECORD
Overall5-4 so far5-5 (59%)5.4-4.6
League1-3 so far1-3 (100%)1.0-3.0
TALKING POINTS (14 storylines)
LIB IS LIKELIEST TO BEAT POL IF...

• LIB forces 3+ takeaways (.999), and has won 4 straight when doing so

• LIB averages 8.0+ yards per attempt (.800), and has won 3 straight when doing so

• LIB averages 6.0+ yards per play (.800), and has won 3 straight when doing so

POL IS LIKELIEST TO BEAT LIB IF...

• POL holds LIB under 150 rushing yards (.999), and has won 3 straight when doing so

• POL commits 2+ giveaways (.600), but most recently lost to Orange Vista when doing so

• POL forces no takeaways (.667), but most recently lost to Rancho Verde when doing so

• LIB's defense has averaged 12.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 112.1 pass yards per game. (-89%)

• POL's defense has averaged 13.3 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 7.1 YPA. (+87%)

• POL's defense has averaged 215.5 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 129.1 pass yards per game. (+67%)

• LIB's defense has averaged 2.0 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 5.8 YPA. (-66%)

• LIB averages 9.3+ yards per attempt (LIB's own median) (.800)

• LIB throws for 112.0+ yards (LIB's own median) (.800)

• LIB averages 5.4+ yards per carry (LIB's own median) (.800)

• LIB averages 6.7+ yards per play (LIB's own median) (.800)

• LIB is 4-1 (.800) when it wins the turnover battle

MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)

LIB -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(top 2 of 2 scored; vs 5 cached team(s))

#SIDECONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRKSCORE
1OFFTurnovers < 34-4.50024.2L10.565
2DEFTurnovers 1+4-4.50015.6L10.435

POL -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS

(top 2 of 2 scored; vs 5 cached team(s))

#SIDECONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRKSCORE
1DEFTurnovers < 34-4.50020.6L30.565
2OFFTurnovers < 34-4.50015.0L30.435
WIN %: TWO-CONDITION COMBINATIONS (3 found, min 4 Gms each)

(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)

--- LIB ---

CONDITIONRECWIN%PPGSTRK
LIB averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards4-2.66733.5W3
LIB rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards3-2.60027.2W1
LIB averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards4-1.80039.0W3
WIN % -- TAB-SEPARATED
TeamConditionRecordWin%PPG
LIBYPC 5.0+ & Rush Yds 150+4-2.66733.5
LIBRush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 2003-2.60027.2
LIBYPP 6.0+ & Rush Yds 150+4-1.80039.0
PREGAME NOTES

Friday's meeting brings together Liberty (4-5 this season) and Poly (5-4). The SP Strength Index has Liberty at #123 and Poly at #156 of 431 in the CIF-Southern Section.

The projection engine makes Liberty a 59% favorite, projecting a 24-20 final in favor of the Bison, off the full five-component blend of both teams' multi-season logs.

Having dropped 4 of its last 7 entering play, Liberty's takeaway production has been the team's calling card (forced 2+ takeaways in 5 of its last 10, 4-6 in that stretch). Last time out, though, the Bison fell to Rancho Verde 14-10. In the process of winning 4 of its last 7 entering play, Poly's rush defense has been the soft spot (allowed 100+ rushing yards in 5 straight, 2-3 in that stretch). It showed again last time out, the Bears falling to Vista Del Lago 51-27.

The matchup within the matchup pairs Liberty's pass protection with Poly's pass rush. Something has to give on Friday. Liberty's pass protection has been a real vulnerability over the Bison's last 5 games. The offensive line has conceded at least 1 sack in 4 of the 5 games while averaging 2.2 sacks allowed per game (including a high of 3 in that span vs. Paloma Valley). That is 267% above the Bison's baseline of 0.6 per game over the 24 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Bison have gone 1-4 in that stretch. On the other side, Poly's pass rush has been a real vulnerability over the Bears' last 5 games, dating back to last season. The defense has recorded fewer than 3 sacks in 5 straight games, averaging 1.0 sacks per game (including a low of 0 in that span vs. San Dimas). That is 44% below the Bears' baseline of 1.8 per game over the 20 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Bears have gone 3-2 in that stretch.

STORYLINES

WEAKNESS VS. WEAKNESS — Something has to give on Friday. Liberty's rushing offense has been a real vulnerability over the Bison's last 5 games. The ground game has failed to reach 200 rushing yards in 4 of the 5 games while averaging 140.4 rushing yards per game (including a low of 55 in that span vs. Rancho Verde). That is 34% below the Bison's baseline of 214.2 yards per game over the 26 games prior — a clear drop; the Bison have gone 2-3 in that stretch. On the other side, Poly's rush defense has been a real vulnerability over the Bears' last 5 games. The defense has conceded 100+ rushing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 203.6 rushing yards allowed per game (including a high of 331 in that span vs. Ramona). That is 55% above the Bears' baseline of 131.6 yards per game over the 23 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Bears have gone 2-3 in that stretch.

STRENGTH VS. WEAKNESS — Liberty's pass defense has been playing at a high level over the Bison's last 7 games. The defense has held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 6 of the 7 games while averaging 112.1 passing yards allowed per game (including a low of 12 in that span vs. Rancho Verde). That is 34% below the Bison's baseline of 168.8 yards per game over the 20 games prior — a clear drop; the Bison have gone 2-5 in that stretch. The matchup on Friday lines up in Liberty's favor. Poly's passing attack has been a real vulnerability over the Bears' last 5 games, dating back to last season. The offense has failed to reach 200 passing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 121.0 passing yards per game (including a low of 80 in that span vs. Redlands East Valley). That is 32% below the Bears' baseline of 178.3 yards per game over the 11 games prior — a clear drop; the Bears have gone 3-2 in that stretch.

LIB — OFFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+4-1.80039.0W3
YPA < 8.00-4.0009.2L4
Pass Yds 200+1-1.50039.5W1
Pass Yds < 2003-4.42921.9L1
Rush Yds 100+4-3.57130.7W2
Rush Yds < 1000-2.0008.5L2
Rush Yds 150+4-2.66733.5W3
Rush Yds < 1500-3.00010.3L3
YPC 5.0+4-3.57130.7W2
YPC < 5.00-2.0008.5L2
YPP 6.0+4-1.80039.0W3
YPP < 6.00-4.0009.2L4
YPP 7.0+3-1.75041.8W2
YPP < 7.01-4.20013.0L1
Turnovers 1+2-4.33320.3L1
Turnovers < 12-1.66736.7W1
Turnovers 2+1-2.33326.0L1
Turnovers > 20-1.00038.0L1
POL — OFFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+1-01.0002.0W1
YPA < 8.02-1.66717.0W2 5 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+--------
Pass Yds < 2003-1.75013.2W3 5 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+1-1.50019.0W1
Rush Yds < 1002-01.0007.5W2 5 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+0-1.00013.0L1
Rush Yds < 1503-01.00013.3W3 5 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+0-1.00013.0L1
YPC < 5.03-01.00013.3W3 5 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+--------
YPP < 6.03-1.75013.2W3 5 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+--------
YPP < 7.03-1.75013.2W3 5 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+3-4.42915.3L3
Turnovers < 11-01.00013.0W1 1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+3-2.60016.0L1 1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2-------- 1 games without this stat on file
LIB — DEFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+0-2.00023.5L2
YPA < 8.02-3.40022.2L1 2 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+1-01.00030.0W1
Pass Yds < 2001-5.16721.3L4 2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+0-4.00026.0L4
Rush Yds < 1002-1.66718.0L1 2 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+0-4.00026.0L4
Rush Yds < 1502-1.66718.0L1 2 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+0-4.00026.0L4
YPC < 5.02-1.66718.0L1 2 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+0-2.00038.5L2
YPP < 6.02-3.40016.2L2 2 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+0-1.00030.0L1
YPP < 7.02-4.33321.3L2 2 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+4-4.50015.6L1
Turnovers < 10-1.00047.0L1
Turnovers 2+4-1.80016.2W2
Turnovers > 24-01.00012.8W4
POL — DEFENSE (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPGSTRK
YPA 8.0+0-2.00031.0L2
YPA < 8.04-2.66717.2L1 1 games without this stat on file
Pass Yds 200+0-1.00051.0L1
Pass Yds < 2004-3.57116.3L2 1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 100+3-4.42922.6L3
Rush Yds < 1001-01.0007.0W1 1 games without this stat on file
Rush Yds 150+1-4.20031.0L3
Rush Yds < 1503-01.0003.3W3 1 games without this stat on file
YPC 5.0+3-4.42923.1L3
YPC < 5.01-01.0003.0W1 1 games without this stat on file
YPP 6.0+1-2.33339.3L1
YPP < 6.03-2.6009.4L2 1 games without this stat on file
YPP 7.0+0-2.00045.5L2
YPP < 7.04-2.66712.3L2 1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 1+2-3.40025.4L2
Turnovers < 12-1.66712.7L1 1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers 2+0-1.00026.0L1 1 games without this stat on file
Turnovers > 2-------- 1 games without this stat on file
LIB — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Scores <100-2.0006.5
Scores 10-190-2.00012.0
Scores 20-291-01.00028.0
Scores 30-391-1.50035.5
Scores 40+2-01.00048.0
LIB — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Allows <102-01.0003.5
Allows 10-191-3.25014.5
Allows 20-29------
Allows 30-391-1.50030.0
Allows 40+0-1.00047.0
POL — OFFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Scores <101-1.5001.0
Scores 10-191-2.33312.0
Scores 20-291-1.50026.0
Scores 30-392-01.00031.5
Scores 40+------
POL — DEFENSE SCORING SITUATION (9 Gms)
SPLITRECWIN%PPG
Allows <104-01.0004.0
Allows 10-190-1.00011.0
Allows 20-291-1.50026.5
Allows 30-39------
Allows 40+0-2.00045.5
ON THE BRINK

POLY

• POLY is one loss from falling to 5-5 through 10 games — for the first time since 2015. It has happened in 1 of 9 seasons on file.

• POLY is one win from climbing to 6-4 through 10 games — for the first time since 2007. It has happened in 1 of 9 seasons on file.

TAB-SEPARATED (paste into a spreadsheet)
TeamSideSplitGamesRecordWin%PPGStrk
LIBOFFENSEYPA 8.0+54-1.80039.0W3
LIBOFFENSEYPA < 8.040-4.0009.2L4
LIBOFFENSEPass Yds 200+21-1.50039.5W1
LIBOFFENSEPass Yds < 20073-4.42921.9L1
LIBOFFENSERush Yds 100+74-3.57130.7W2
LIBOFFENSERush Yds < 10020-2.0008.5L2
LIBOFFENSERush Yds 150+64-2.66733.5W3
LIBOFFENSERush Yds < 15030-3.00010.3L3
LIBOFFENSEYPC 5.0+74-3.57130.7W2
LIBOFFENSEYPC < 5.020-2.0008.5L2
LIBOFFENSEYPP 6.0+54-1.80039.0W3
LIBOFFENSEYPP < 6.040-4.0009.2L4
LIBOFFENSEYPP 7.0+43-1.75041.8W2
LIBOFFENSEYPP < 7.051-4.20013.0L1
LIBOFFENSETurnovers 1+62-4.33320.3L1
LIBOFFENSETurnovers < 132-1.66736.7W1
LIBOFFENSETurnovers 2+31-2.33326.0L1
LIBOFFENSETurnovers > 210-1.00038.0L1
LIBOFFENSEScores <1020-2.0006.5L2
LIBOFFENSEScores 10-1920-2.00012.0L2
LIBOFFENSEScores 20-2911-01.00028.0W1
LIBOFFENSEScores 30-3921-1.50035.5W1
LIBOFFENSEScores 40+22-01.00048.0W2
LIBDEFENSEYPA 8.0+20-2.00023.5L2
LIBDEFENSEYPA < 8.052-3.40022.2L1
LIBDEFENSEPass Yds 200+11-01.00030.0W1
LIBDEFENSEPass Yds < 20061-5.16721.3L4
LIBDEFENSERush Yds 100+40-4.00026.0L4
LIBDEFENSERush Yds < 10032-1.66718.0L1
LIBDEFENSERush Yds 150+40-4.00026.0L4
LIBDEFENSERush Yds < 15032-1.66718.0L1
LIBDEFENSEYPC 5.0+40-4.00026.0L4
LIBDEFENSEYPC < 5.032-1.66718.0L1
LIBDEFENSEYPP 6.0+20-2.00038.5L2
LIBDEFENSEYPP < 6.052-3.40016.2L2
LIBDEFENSEYPP 7.0+10-1.00030.0L1
LIBDEFENSEYPP < 7.062-4.33321.3L2
LIBDEFENSETurnovers 1+84-4.50015.6L1
LIBDEFENSETurnovers < 110-1.00047.0L1
LIBDEFENSETurnovers 2+54-1.80016.2W2
LIBDEFENSETurnovers > 244-01.00012.8W4
LIBDEFENSEAllows <1022-01.0003.5W2
LIBDEFENSEAllows 10-1941-3.25014.5L1
LIBDEFENSEAllows 30-3921-1.50030.0L1
LIBDEFENSEAllows 40+10-1.00047.0L1
POLOFFENSEYPA 8.0+11-01.0002.0W1
POLOFFENSEYPA < 8.032-1.66717.0W2
POLOFFENSEPass Yds < 20043-1.75013.2W3
POLOFFENSERush Yds 100+21-1.50019.0W1
POLOFFENSERush Yds < 10022-01.0007.5W2
POLOFFENSERush Yds 150+10-1.00013.0L1
POLOFFENSERush Yds < 15033-01.00013.3W3
POLOFFENSEYPC 5.0+10-1.00013.0L1
POLOFFENSEYPC < 5.033-01.00013.3W3
POLOFFENSEYPP < 6.043-1.75013.2W3
POLOFFENSEYPP < 7.043-1.75013.2W3
POLOFFENSETurnovers 1+73-4.42915.3L3
POLOFFENSETurnovers < 111-01.00013.0W1
POLOFFENSETurnovers 2+53-2.60016.0L1
POLOFFENSEScores <1021-1.5001.0L1
POLOFFENSEScores 10-1931-2.33312.0L1
POLOFFENSEScores 20-2921-1.50026.0L1
POLOFFENSEScores 30-3922-01.00031.5W2
POLDEFENSEYPA 8.0+20-2.00031.0L2
POLDEFENSEYPA < 8.064-2.66717.2L1
POLDEFENSEPass Yds 200+10-1.00051.0L1
POLDEFENSEPass Yds < 20074-3.57116.3L2
POLDEFENSERush Yds 100+73-4.42922.6L3
POLDEFENSERush Yds < 10011-01.0007.0W1
POLDEFENSERush Yds 150+51-4.20031.0L3
POLDEFENSERush Yds < 15033-01.0003.3W3
POLDEFENSEYPC 5.0+73-4.42923.1L3
POLDEFENSEYPC < 5.011-01.0003.0W1
POLDEFENSEYPP 6.0+31-2.33339.3L1
POLDEFENSEYPP < 6.053-2.6009.4L2
POLDEFENSEYPP 7.0+20-2.00045.5L2
POLDEFENSEYPP < 7.064-2.66712.3L2
POLDEFENSETurnovers 1+52-3.40025.4L2
POLDEFENSETurnovers < 132-1.66712.7L1
POLDEFENSETurnovers 2+10-1.00026.0L1
POLDEFENSEAllows <1044-01.0004.0W4
POLDEFENSEAllows 10-1910-1.00011.0L1
POLDEFENSEAllows 20-2921-1.50026.5L1
POLDEFENSEAllows 40+20-2.00045.5L2
STREAKS: LIB (combined OFFENSE+DEFENSE)
SIDESPLITSTREAKDATESRECORD
DEFENSETurnovers 1+6 games09/18/2026 - 10/23/20263-3
STREAKS — ALL TEAMS
TeamSideSplitStreakDatesRecord
LIBDEFENSETurnovers 1+6 games09/18/2026 - 10/23/20263-3
MATCHUP CONFLICT POINTS: LIB vs POL

Each pair of rows above is tinted by the gap between the two teams' win% in that scenario, judged for the HOME team (the bottom row):

GRAY = negligible gap (.000-.050)

PURPLE = solid gap (.051-.150)

GREEN = big gap (.151+), favoring the home team

RED = big gap (.151+), against the home team

LIB OFFENSE vs POL DEFENSE

100 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFOVER74-3.57130.7W2
POLDEFOVER73-4.42922.6L3
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFUNDER20-2.0008.5L2
POLDEFUNDER11-01.0007.0W1
150 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFOVER64-2.66733.5W3
POLDEFOVER51-4.20031.0L3
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFUNDER30-3.00010.3L3
POLDEFUNDER33-01.0003.3W3
YPC 5.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFOVER74-3.57130.7W2
POLDEFOVER73-4.42923.1L3
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFUNDER20-2.0008.5L2
POLDEFUNDER11-01.0003.0W1
YPA 8.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFOVER54-1.80039.0W3
POLDEFOVER20-2.00031.0L2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFUNDER40-4.0009.2L4
POLDEFUNDER64-2.66717.2L1
200 PASS YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFOVER21-1.50039.5W1
POLDEFOVER10-1.00051.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFUNDER73-4.42921.9L1
POLDEFUNDER74-3.57116.3L2
0 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFZERO32-1.66736.7W1
POLDEFZERO32-1.66712.7L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFOVER62-4.33320.3L1
POLDEFOVER52-3.40025.4L2
2+ TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFOVER31-2.33326.0L1
POLDEFOVER10-1.00026.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFUNDER63-3.50025.7L1
POLDEFUNDER74-3.57119.9L2
>2 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFUNDER84-4.50024.2L1
POLDEFUNDER84-4.50020.6L3
YPP 6.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFOVER54-1.80039.0W3
POLDEFOVER31-2.33339.3L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFUNDER40-4.0009.2L4
POLDEFUNDER53-2.6009.4L2
YPP 7.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFOVER43-1.75041.8W2
POLDEFOVER20-2.00045.5L2
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBOFFUNDER51-4.20013.0L1
POLDEFUNDER64-2.66712.3L2

POL OFFENSE vs LIB DEFENSE

100 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFOVER40-4.00026.0L4
POLOFFOVER21-1.50019.0W1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFUNDER32-1.66718.0L1
POLOFFUNDER22-01.0007.5W2
150 RUSH YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFOVER40-4.00026.0L4
POLOFFOVER10-1.00013.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFUNDER32-1.66718.0L1
POLOFFUNDER33-01.00013.3W3
YPC 5.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFOVER40-4.00026.0L4
POLOFFOVER10-1.00013.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFUNDER32-1.66718.0L1
POLOFFUNDER33-01.00013.3W3
YPA 8.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFOVER20-2.00023.5L2
POLOFFOVER11-01.0002.0W1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFUNDER52-3.40022.2L1
POLOFFUNDER32-1.66717.0W2
200 PASS YDS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFUNDER61-5.16721.3L4
POLOFFUNDER43-1.75013.2W3
0 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFZERO10-1.00047.0L1
POLOFFZERO11-01.00013.0W1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFOVER84-4.50015.6L1
POLOFFOVER73-4.42915.3L3
2+ TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFOVER54-1.80016.2W2
POLOFFOVER53-2.60016.0L1
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFUNDER40-4.00022.8L4
POLOFFUNDER31-2.33313.3L2
>2 TURNOVERS
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFUNDER50-5.00024.2L5
POLOFFUNDER84-4.50015.0L3
YPP 6.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFUNDER52-3.40016.2L2
POLOFFUNDER43-1.75013.2W3
YPP 7.0
TMSIDESPLITGMREC.WIN%PPGSTRK
LIBDEFUNDER62-4.33321.3L2
POLOFFUNDER43-1.75013.2W3

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

NOTABLE TRENDS (18 of 18 found, team |deviation| >= 20%, matchup |deviation| >= 20%)

LIB OFFENSE

LIB's offense has averaged 0.7 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 1.3 giveaways per game. (-50%)

LIB's offense has averaged 139.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 113.0 pass yards per game. (+23%)

LIB's offense has averaged 20.0 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 25.8 points scored per game. (-22%)

LIB's offense has averaged 140.4 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 180.7 rush yards per game. (-22%)

POL OFFENSE

POL's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 1.5 giveaways per game. (-33%)

LIB DEFENSE

LIB's defense has averaged 12.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 112.1 pass yards per game. (-89%)

LIB's defense has averaged 2.0 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 5.8 YPA. (-66%)

LIB's defense has averaged 9.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 19.1 points allowed per game. (-51%)

LIB's defense has averaged 210.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 148.0 rush yards per game. (+42%)

LIB's defense has averaged 5.7 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 7-game average is 4.4 YPC. (+30%)

LIB's defense has averaged 315.0 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 7-game average is 260.1 total yards per game. (+21%)

POL DEFENSE

POL's defense has averaged 13.3 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 7.1 YPA. (+87%)

POL's defense has averaged 215.5 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 129.1 pass yards per game. (+67%)

POL's defense has averaged 0.5 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 0.8 takeaways per game. (-33%)

POL's defense has averaged 402.2 total yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 315.5 total yards per game. (+27%)

POL's defense has averaged 7.5 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 5.9 YPP. (+27%)

POL's defense has averaged 24.2 points allowed per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 19.0 points allowed per game. (+27%)

POL's defense has averaged 228.0 rush yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 8-game average is 186.4 rush yards per game. (+22%)

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 2, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

APPENDIX

Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.

Explanatory Notes

Note 1 -- GAME PROJECTION -- FULL DETAIL (report pages 1-2)

Library-native projection: computed directly from the game library (slate_projection.SlateEngine), not the Excel workbook engine. This section does not yet include: an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only).

Note 2 -- SEASON OUTLOOK

Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).

Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored

Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.

Full Data Exports

Data Export 1 -- MATCHUP CONFLICTS — TAB-SEPARATED (13 columns)

Team1Side1Split1Record1Win%1PPG1Team2Side2Split2Record2Win%2PPG2Relevance
POLOFFENSERush Yds < 1503-01.00013.3LIBDEFENSERush Yds 150+0-4.00026.01.000
POLOFFENSEYPC < 5.03-01.00013.3LIBDEFENSEYPC 5.0+0-4.00026.01.000
LIBOFFENSEYPA < 8.00-4.0009.2POLDEFENSEYPA 8.0+0-2.00031.01.000
POLOFFENSERush Yds < 1002-01.0007.5LIBDEFENSERush Yds 100+0-4.00026.01.000
LIBOFFENSERush Yds < 1500-3.00010.3POLDEFENSERush Yds 150+1-4.20031.00.800
LIBOFFENSEYPP < 7.01-4.20013.0POLDEFENSEYPP 7.0+0-2.00045.50.800
POLOFFENSEYPP < 6.03-1.75013.2LIBDEFENSEYPP 6.0+0-2.00038.50.750
POLOFFENSEPass Yds < 2003-1.75013.2LIBDEFENSEPass Yds 200+1-01.00030.00.750
POLOFFENSEYPP < 7.03-1.75013.2LIBDEFENSEYPP 7.0+0-1.00030.00.750
LIBOFFENSEYPP < 6.00-4.0009.2POLDEFENSEYPP 6.0+1-2.33339.30.667
LIBOFFENSERush Yds 150+4-2.66733.5POLDEFENSERush Yds < 1503-01.0003.30.667
POLOFFENSEYPA < 8.02-1.66717.0LIBDEFENSEYPA 8.0+0-2.00023.50.667
POLOFFENSERush Yds 150+0-1.00013.0LIBDEFENSERush Yds < 1502-1.66718.00.667
POLOFFENSEYPC 5.0+0-1.00013.0LIBDEFENSEYPC < 5.02-1.66718.00.667
POLOFFENSEYPA 8.0+1-01.0002.0LIBDEFENSEYPA < 8.02-3.40022.20.600
LIBOFFENSERush Yds < 1000-2.0008.5POLDEFENSERush Yds 100+3-4.42922.60.571
LIBOFFENSEYPC < 5.00-2.0008.5POLDEFENSEYPC 5.0+3-4.42923.10.571
LIBOFFENSEPass Yds < 2003-4.42921.9POLDEFENSEPass Yds 200+0-1.00051.00.571
LIBOFFENSERush Yds 100+4-3.57130.7POLDEFENSERush Yds < 1001-01.0007.00.571
LIBOFFENSEYPC 5.0+4-3.57130.7POLDEFENSEYPC < 5.01-01.0003.00.571
POLOFFENSETurnovers 1+3-4.42915.3LIBDEFENSETurnovers < 10-1.00047.00.571
POLOFFENSETurnovers < 11-01.00013.0LIBDEFENSETurnovers 1+4-4.50015.60.500
LIBOFFENSEYPA 8.0+4-1.80039.0POLDEFENSEYPA < 8.04-2.66717.20.467
LIBOFFENSEYPP 7.0+3-1.75041.8POLDEFENSEYPP < 7.04-2.66712.30.417
LIBOFFENSEYPP 6.0+4-1.80039.0POLDEFENSEYPP < 6.03-2.6009.40.400
LIBOFFENSETurnovers 1+2-4.33320.3POLDEFENSETurnovers < 12-1.66712.70.333
LIBOFFENSETurnovers < 12-1.66736.7POLDEFENSETurnovers 1+2-3.40025.40.267
POLOFFENSERush Yds 100+1-1.50019.0LIBDEFENSERush Yds < 1002-1.66718.00.167
LIBOFFENSEPass Yds 200+1-1.50039.5POLDEFENSEPass Yds < 2004-3.57116.30.071

Data Export 2 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)

TeamSideTypeStatOpponentWindow/MeetingsValueBaselineGamesBaselineAvgDeviation
LIBDEFENSEteamPass Yardslast 312.07112.1-89.3%
LIBOFFENSEteamPass Yardslast 3139.09113.0+23.0%
LIBDEFENSEteamPointslast 39.3919.1-51.2%
LIBOFFENSEteamPointslast 520.0925.8-22.4%
LIBDEFENSEteamRush Yardslast 3210.07148.0+41.9%
LIBOFFENSEteamRush Yardslast 5140.49180.7-22.3%
LIBDEFENSEteamTotal Yardslast 5315.07260.1+21.1%
LIBOFFENSEteamTurnoverslast 30.791.3-50.0%
LIBDEFENSEteamYPAlast 32.075.8-65.6%
LIBDEFENSEteamYPClast 35.774.4+29.6%
POLDEFENSEteamPass Yardslast 3215.58129.1+66.9%
POLDEFENSEteamPointslast 524.2919.0+27.4%
POLDEFENSEteamRush Yardslast 5228.08186.4+22.3%
POLDEFENSEteamTotal Yardslast 5402.28315.5+27.5%
POLDEFENSEteamTurnoverslast 30.580.8-33.3%
POLOFFENSEteamTurnoverslast 31.081.5-33.3%
POLDEFENSEteamYPAlast 313.387.1+86.7%
POLDEFENSEteamYPPlast 37.585.9+27.4%
LIB — ROSTER (46) 26-27
#NAMEPOSCLASS
QUARTERBACKS
6JULIAN GALLARDO
PASS 54/92 · 58.7% · 1,017 YDS · 11.1 YPA · 13 TD · 3 INT · 113.0/G
RUSH 32 CAR · -33 YDS · -1.0 YPC · 0 TD · -3.7/G
QBJr.
15JACOB AYALA
RUSH 8 CAR · 2 YDS · 0.2 YPC · 0 TD · 0.7/G
DEF 1 TKL · 0.3 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
QBFr.
RUNNING BACKS
1CHRISTOPHER DEBOSE
RUSH 73 CAR · 400 YDS · 5.5 YPC · 3 TD · 57.1/G
DEF 7 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
RBSr.
10ISAAC AYALA
RUSH 32 CAR · 157 YDS · 4.9 YPC · 1 TD · 52.3/G
REC 3 REC · 39 YDS · 13.0 YPC · 0 TD · 13.0/G
DEF 14 TKL · 4.7 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
RBSr.
12NATHAN AYALA
RUSH 49 CAR · 351 YDS · 7.2 YPC · 3 TD · 39.0/G
REC 10 REC · 221 YDS · 22.1 YPC · 2 TD · 24.6/G
DEF 19 TKL · 2.1 TKL/G · 4 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
RBJr.
35DANE HAVINS
RUSH 2 CAR · 6 YDS · 3.0 YPC · 0 TD · 6.0/G
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
RBJr.
RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS
4DOMINIC HALL
RUSH 10 CAR · 126 YDS · 12.6 YPC · 1 TD · 15.8/G
REC 18 REC · 433 YDS · 24.1 YPC · 5 TD · 54.1/G
WRSr.
7RILEY SILVA
RUSH 1 CAR · 0 YDS · 0.0 YPC · 0 TD · 0.0/G
REC 18 REC · 206 YDS · 11.4 YPC · 1 TD · 22.9/G
DEF 4 TKL · 0.4 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRSr.
88NATE LEVINE
REC 4 REC · 98 YDS · 24.5 YPC · 4 TD · 14.0/G
DEF 17 TKL · 2.4 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 0.5 SACKS · 0 INT
TEJr.
OFFENSIVE LINE
52ROMAN VALENZUELA
DEF 2 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLSr.
53NICOLAS PETTIS
DEF 4 TKL · 1.3 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLSo.
55CHRISTIAN CLARK
DEF 4 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLJr.
56MASON RANGEL
DEF 4 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLSr.
DEFENSIVE LINE
5MESSIAH STEWART
DEF 8 TKL · 1.6 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLSr.
8JAYLEN WALKER
DEF 5 TKL · 1.2 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DESr.
42JOHN BEJAR
DEF 3 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLJr.
45ZAIRE BRYANT
DEF 31 TKL · 5.2 TKL/G · 4 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLSr.
50DEUNTAYA FOLEY
DEF 3 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLSr.
58BROCK HAYS
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLJr.
60ISAIAH ROLON
DEF 6 TKL · 1.5 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLJr.
79RILEY REYES
DEF 7 TKL · 1.8 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DLSr.
LINEBACKERS
20ETHAN O'BOYLE
DEF 10 TKL · 2.5 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSr.
22GAVIN RAMIREZ
RUSH 79 CAR · 543 YDS · 6.9 YPC · 7 TD · 60.3/G
DEF 48 TKL · 5.3 TKL/G · 3 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLBJr.
33LUKE LESIEUR
REC 1 REC · 20 YDS · 20.0 YPC · 1 TD · 2.9/G
DEF 49 TKL · 7.0 TKL/G · 4 TFL · 0.5 SACKS · 0 INT
MLBSr.
34MAKHI JOHNSON
RUSH 7 CAR · 62 YDS · 8.9 YPC · 0 TD · 12.4/G
DEF 16 TKL · 3.2 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
LBJr.
40MASON MATTHEWS
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBSr.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
2CARSON ALVAREZ
DEF 25 TKL · 3.1 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
CBSr.
3JAIDAN BRADLEY
DEF 10 TKL · 1.7 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
CBSr.
13DAMIAN ROWELL
DEF 30 TKL · 3.8 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 5 INT
FSSr.
14REID KISER
DEF 38 TKL · 4.8 TKL/G · 4 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
SSSr.
17KASEN DALLINGHAUS
DEF 8 TKL · 1.6 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
CBJr.
21KAIZIN OR
DEF 3 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
SSSr.
23KEONTAE GREENBERRY
DEF 61 TKL · 7.6 TKL/G · 2 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 2 INT
SSJr.
26ANTONIA CAMPBELL III
DEF 2 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
CBJr.
27BYRON MCCRAY
DEF 0 TKL · 0.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
CBJr.
32MALIK MUHAMMAD
DEF 5 TKL · 1.2 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
FSJr.
ON STAT SHEETS, NOT ON THE POSTED ROSTER
--CAYSON LAURITZEN
RUSH 5 CAR · 12 YDS · 2.4 YPC · 0 TD · 1.3/G
DEF 42 TKL · 4.7 TKL/G · 4 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 2 INT
----
--LIAM BROWN
DEF 1 TKL · 0.5 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 1 INT
----
POL — ROSTER (52) 26-27
#NAMEPOSCLASS
QUARTERBACKS
7MARJOK GUSTAFSON
PASS 23/33 · 69.7% · 254 YDS · 7.7 YPA · 2 TD · 2 INT · 84.7/G
RUSH 17 CAR · 84 YDS · 4.9 YPC · 1 TD · 28.0/G
QBSr.
16SHILOH WILMOTH
PASS 26/42 · 61.9% · 220 YDS · 5.2 YPA · 2 TD · 1 INT · 55.0/G
RUSH 4 CAR · -28 YDS · -7.0 YPC · 0 TD · -7.0/G
QBJr.
RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS
4BRODY BRACKETT
PASS 1/1 · 100.0% · 40 YDS · 40.0 YPA · 0 TD · 0 INT · 13.3/G
RUSH 3 CAR · 8 YDS · 2.7 YPC · 0 TD · 2.7/G
REC 1 REC · 6 YDS · 6.0 YPC · 0 TD · 2.0/G
DEF 19 TKL · 6.3 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
WRSr.
OFFENSIVE LINE
68NOAH LOPEZ
DEF 5 TKL · 2.5 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
OLSo.
LINEBACKERS
20DAVID GILDO
DEF 10 TKL · 3.3 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
LBJr.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
9JULIAN ROMERO
DEF 16 TKL · 5.3 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
DBSr.
OTHER / UNLISTED POSITION
1KEVIN WILLIAMS
REC 6 REC · 94 YDS · 15.7 YPC · 0 TD · 31.3/G
DEF 2 TKL · 0.7 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--So.
2TRACY DAVIS
DEF 10 TKL · 5.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Sr.
3JORGE ISLAS
RUSH 6 CAR · 19 YDS · 3.2 YPC · 0 TD · 4.8/G
REC 15 REC · 100 YDS · 6.7 YPC · 1 TD · 25.0/G
DEF 4 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
5JAXON CABRERA
DEF 17 TKL · 5.7 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
6ZACH MICHEL
REC 12 REC · 179 YDS · 14.9 YPC · 2 TD · 44.8/G
--Sr.
8SIMEON ZUNIGHA
RUSH 40 CAR · 141 YDS · 3.5 YPC · 2 TD · 35.2/G
REC 1 REC · 0 YDS · 0.0 YPC · 0 TD · 0.0/G
--Sr.
10EZEQUIEL GUTIERREZ
DEF 9 TKL · 3.0 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Sr.
11JOHNNY OROZCO
REC 2 REC · 16 YDS · 8.0 YPC · 0 TD · 5.3/G
DEF 6 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
14ETHAN WILLIAMS
RUSH 27 CAR · 101 YDS · 3.7 YPC · 1 TD · 33.7/G
REC 3 REC · 19 YDS · 6.3 YPC · 1 TD · 6.3/G
--Sr.
19NASIR SHAHID
REC 5 REC · 92 YDS · 18.4 YPC · 0 TD · 23.0/G
DEF 11 TKL · 2.8 TKL/G · 3 TFL · 2.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Sr.
23TOMMY COATE
RUSH 5 CAR · 17 YDS · 3.4 YPC · 0 TD · 8.5/G
--Jr.
34EMREE CLINKSCALE
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--So.
37NICO TODOROVSKI
DEF 14 TKL · 4.7 TKL/G · 4 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Sr.
45JESUS VILLELA BENITEZ
RUSH 5 CAR · 30 YDS · 6.0 YPC · 0 TD · 30.0/G
--Jr.
55JEREMIAH THOMPSON
DEF 6 TKL · 2.0 TKL/G · 1 TFL · 1.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Sr.
81NIXON GIFFORD
DEF 1 TKL · 1.0 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--So.
82HUNTER DUBUISON
REC 2 REC · -5 YDS · -2.5 YPC · 0 TD · -2.5/G
DEF 1 TKL · 0.5 TKL/G · 0 TFL · 0.0 SACKS · 0 INT
--Jr.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED 10/29/2026 20:34