In short: Augustana (IL) Division III college football, 2026 season: 4-4 (CCIW). Last game: L 13-26 vs Wheaton (IL) on October 31, 2026. Next: vs Carthage, November 7, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The battle on the ground could decide Augustana (IL)'s next game, against Carthage, and the recent returns favor Carthage. Augustana (IL) allowed 2.6 yards per carry (371 yards on 144 rushes) over its first 4 games (2-2), #43 in D-III in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Vikings have allowed 5.4 yards per carry (774 yards on 143 rushes), a 110% rise, #208 in D-III in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Augustana (IL)'s last 4 opponents have averaged 4.7 yards per carry, a #56 rushing attack in D-III on the season, against 3.4 yards per carry, #151 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.7 yards per carry), Augustana (IL) allowed 15% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. Meanwhile, Carthage's ground game has struggled in recent weeks. The Firebirds have averaged 2.5 yards per carry (294 yards on 118 rushes) over their last 4 games (2-2), #205 in D-III during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker run defenses in D-III (4.6 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #176). Against those norms, Carthage ran for 46% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Augustana (IL) the edge: Augustana (IL)'s front grades +2.5 against Carthage's offensive line at -5.6 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
The number to watch when Augustana (IL) meets Carthage is Augustana (IL)'s giveaways. Augustana (IL) committed 2.2 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #190 in D-III through those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), the Vikings have committed 1.0 giveaways per game, a 56% drop, #37 in D-III through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.6 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Augustana (IL) turned it over 39% less than those defenses usually force. Conversely, Carthage's defense has been one of D-III's better units in recent weeks. The Firebirds have forced 2.0 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (2-2), #58 in D-III over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in D-III (1.3 per game on the season, which would rank #82). Against those norms, Carthage forced 50% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Something has to give when Augustana (IL)'s surging ball security meets one of D-III's better units in Carthage's.
NOTES
The biggest worry in Augustana (IL)'s season has been the direction of its third-down defense. Augustana (IL) allowed 27.1% of third downs (16-for-59) over its first 4 games (2-2), #50 in D-III within that period. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Vikings have allowed 40.5% of third downs (15-for-37), a 49% rise, #154 in D-III across those games. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 37.8% on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (37.9%), Augustana (IL) allowed third-down conversions 7% more often than those offenses usually manage. On the season, Augustana (IL) ranks #82 in D-III in third-down defense. Carthage's third-down offense, #217 of 244 (22.9%), could be the get-right matchup Augustana (IL) needs.
Augustana (IL)'s third-down offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Vikings converted 34.8% of third downs (16-for-46) over their first 4 games (2-2), #134 in D-III during those games. In the 4 games since that slow start (2-2), Augustana (IL) has converted 48.5% of third downs (16-for-33), a 39% rise, #46 in D-III during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Augustana (IL)'s last 4 opponents have averaged 29.8%, a #52 third-down defense in D-III on the season, against 38.6%, #147 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (29.8%), Augustana (IL) converted third downs 63% more often than those defenses usually allow. On the season, the Vikings rank #81 in D-III in third-down offense. Carthage's third-down defense sits in the middle of the pack, #138 in D-III (37.5%).
Something changed for Augustana (IL)'s defense after its first 4 games. Augustana (IL) allowed 20.5 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #84 in D-III during that stretch. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Vikings have allowed 28.5 points per game, a 39% rise, #153 in D-III over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Augustana (IL)'s last 4 opponents have averaged 33.8 points per game, a #55 offense in D-III on the season, against 26.2 points per game, #120 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (33.8 points per game), Augustana (IL) held those offenses 16% below what they usually score. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. On the season, Augustana (IL) ranks #120 in D-III in scoring defense. Carthage's offense, #216 of 245 (13.1 points per game), could be the get-right matchup Augustana (IL) needs.
Augustana (IL)'s defense has allowed more yards per snap as the season has worn on. The Vikings allowed 4.7 yards per play (1,251 yards on 268 snaps) over their first 4 games (2-2), #58 in D-III over that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), Augustana (IL) has allowed 6.2 yards per play (1,679 yards on 271 snaps), a 33% rise, #166 in D-III over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Augustana (IL)'s last 4 opponents have averaged 6.3 yards per play, a #68 offense in D-III on the season, against 5.3 yards per play, #144 for the first 4. On the season, the Vikings rank #115 in D-III in yards per play allowed. Carthage's offense, #231 of 245 (3.7 yards per play), could be the get-right matchup Augustana (IL) needs. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings give Augustana (IL) the edge: Augustana (IL)'s front grades +2.5 against Carthage's offensive line at -5.6 (stuffed runs, sacks and early-down success, opponent-adjusted).
As the schedule has stiffened, Augustana (IL) has gone quiet. Augustana (IL) averaged 36.0 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #48 in D-III in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that hot start (2-2), the Vikings have averaged 26.0 points per game, a 28% drop, #118 in D-III in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Augustana (IL)'s last 4 opponents have averaged 22.3 points per game, a #110 scoring defense in D-III on the season, against 30.6 points per game, #168 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (22.3 points per game), Augustana (IL) scored 17% more than those defenses usually allow. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. Augustana (IL) was held to 14 points or fewer 2 times in those games, including 7 against CFB Pirate D-III #4 North Central (IL) on 10/3. On the season, Augustana (IL) ranks #78 in D-III in scoring. Carthage's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #134 in D-III (25.1 points per game). Augustana (IL) is 4-1 this season when it scores 26 or more, and 0-3 when it doesn't.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
Augustana (IL) has played a tougher-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#38 of 246), and what is left is a middle-of-the-road slate (#125 of 243): the hard part is behind it.
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#38 of 246
avg opponent rating -5.4 over 8 games · 3 vs top-25 D-III
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#125 of 243
avg opponent rating -17.4 over 2 games · 0 vs top-25
Simpson W 42-14@Wis.-Sto… L 34-37Ill. Wes… L 10-17@Elmhurst W 58-14@North Ce… L 7-35Millikin W 49-41@North Pa… W 35-12Wheaton … L 13-26Carthage@Carroll …
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 31 game; last updated Nov 1; roster and numbers checked Sep 17.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 69.2/100 (+28 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 65.9/100 (+22 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 52.8/100 (-1 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 67.6/100 (-24 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-11-07
vs
CARTHAGE
3-5
13.1
2026-11-14
at
CARROLL (WI)
4-5
21.3
LAST YEAR
A( finished 2025 at 7-3. Missed playoffs. Notable win: 42-41 over SIMPSON (SIMPSON finished 60% that season). Toughest loss: 13-35 to WASHU (22-point margin).
• [CLUB] Augustana (Il) is 21-1 all time when holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards. Augustana (Il)'s last loss when holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards was September 12, 2026 against Wis.-stout (L, 34-37).
• [CLUB] Augustana (Il) is 19-2 all time when averaging 5.0+ yards per carry. Augustana (Il)'s last loss when averaging 5.0+ yards per carry was September 23, 2023 against Wheaton (Il) (L, 34-41).
• [CLUB] Augustana (Il) is 19-2 all time when averaging 6.0+ yards per play. Augustana (Il)'s last loss when averaging 6.0+ yards per play was September 23, 2023 against Wheaton (Il) (L, 34-41).
• [CLUB] Augustana (Il) is 13-1 all time when scoring 40+ points. Augustana (Il)'s last loss when scoring 40+ points was October 1, 2022 against Carroll (Wi) (L, 41-44).
• [CLUB] Augustana (Il) has gone 5 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (September 26, 2026 through October 31, 2026), going 3-2 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2024 (13 games).
• [PLAYER] Ben Ludlum has 392 rushing yards over his last 3 games (130.7 a game, October 3, 2026 through October 24, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Ben Ludlum has 8 rushing touchdowns over his last 4 games (2.0 a game, September 26, 2026 through October 24, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Sean Schlanser has 4 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.3 a game, October 10, 2026 through October 31, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Jimmy Makuh has gone 2 straight games throwing for 200+ yards, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 3 straight games throwing for 200+ yards, during the 2025 season.
• [PLAYER] Jimmy Makuh has gone 2 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 10 straight games throwing a touchdown pass, during the 2026 season.
• [PLAYER] Tj Klein has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for Augustana (Il), over a 29-game career on record. His career high is 6, set September 19, 2026 against Ill. Wesleyan (L, 10-17).
TALKING POINTS (15 storylines)
A( HAS PERFORMED BEST THIS DATA SET WHEN...
• A( holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry (.800), but most recently lost to Wheaton (il) when doing so
• A( holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play (.867), and has won 3 straight when doing so
• A( holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards (.844), but most recently lost to Wheaton (il) when doing so
• A( averages 6.0+ yards per play (.905), and has won 14 straight when doing so
• A( rushes for 141.0+ yards (A('s own median) (.920)
• A( holds its opponents under 103.0 rushing yards (A('s own median) (.958)
• A( holds its opponents under 5.4 yards per play (A('s own median) (.917)
• A( averages 5.7+ yards per play (A('s own median) (.880)
• A( averages 4.3+ yards per carry (A('s own median) (.880)
• A( averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards
• A( holds its opponents under 3.4 yards per carry (A('s own median) (.875)
• A( holds its opponents under 7.1 yards per attempt (A('s own median) (.833)
• A('s offense has averaged 1.9 giveaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 49-game average is 1.3 giveaways per game. (+42%)
• A( averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards
• A( rushes for 150+ yards but stays under 8.0 yards per attempt
MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
A( -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 40 scored; vs 114 cached team(s))
#
SIDE
CONDITION
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
SCORE
1
OFF
YPP 7+
8-0
1.000
45.5
W8
0.900
2
DEF
Turnovers 3+
9-1
.900
15.8
W1
0.845
3
DEF
Rush Yds < 100
21-1
.955
17.1
W1
0.828
4
OFF
YPP 6+
19-2
.905
42.0
W14
0.812
5
OFF
Rush Yds 150+
19-2
.905
42.0
W14
0.809
WIN %: TWO-CONDITION COMBINATIONS (15 found, min 4 Gms each)
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- A( ---
CONDITION
REC
WIN%
PPG
STRK
A( holds its opponents under 5.0 yards per carry and under 150 rushing yards
27-5
.844
19.2
L1
A( holds its opponents under 8.0 yards per attempt and under 5.0 yards per carry
26-2
.929
18.2
W3
A( holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play and under 100 rushing yards
21-1
.955
17.1
W1
A( rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards
11-7
.611
33.3
W3
A( averages 5.0+ yards per carry on its way to 150+ rushing yards
16-2
.889
40.8
W12
A( averages 6.0+ yards per play behind 150+ rushing yards
14-1
.933
44.3
W10
A( holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards while forcing 2+ takeaways
14-1
.933
15.5
W1
A( holds its opponents under 6.0 yards per play while forcing 2+ takeaways
13-1
.929
15.4
W1
A( rushes for 150+ yards but stays under 8.0 yards per attempt
11-2
.846
38.8
W8
A( throws for 200+ yards despite 2+ giveaways
4-8
.333
27.1
L1
A( averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards
11-0
.999
41.4
W11
A( holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards
10-1
.909
8.8
W1
A( throws for 200+ yards despite being held under 100 rushing yards
2-8
.200
24.5
L6
A( averages 6.0+ yards per play while committing zero giveaways
NOTABLE TRENDS (1 of 1 found, team |deviation| >= 20%, matchup |deviation| >= 20%)
A( OFFENSE
A('s offense has averaged 1.9 giveaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 49-game average is 1.3 giveaways per game. (+42%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Team
Side
Type
Stat
Opponent
Window/Meetings
Value
BaselineGames
BaselineAvg
Deviation
A(
OFFENSE
team
Turnovers
last 7
1.9
49
1.3
+42.2%
STATISTICAL STORIES
AUGUSTANA (IL): OFFENSE VS DEFENSE, 2026
Where AUGUSTANA (IL) sits among 246 D3 teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 67.5, Defense Grade 60.1.
AUGUSTANA (IL): SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- 4.8 in 2022 to 7.5 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
2.44 points per offensive possession (91 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 52.4% success rate, 28.6% explosive play rate (21 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
3
rush 67%, pass 33%
1 & medium
8
rush 75%, pass 25%
1 & long
184
rush 57%, pass 42%, sack 2%
2 & short
29
rush 55%, pass 45%
2 & medium
51
rush 59%, pass 39%, sack 2%
2 & long
65
pass 48%, rush 48%, sack 5%
3 & short
25
rush 80%, pass 20%
3 & medium
24
pass 58%, rush 42%
3 & long
30
pass 63%, rush 30%, sack 7%
4 & short
6
pass 50%, rush 50%
4 & medium
5
pass 80%, rush 20%
4 & long
3
pass 67%, rush 33%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
1 of 4 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: +11.8 final vs. +6.8 before garbage time — this team pads its margins (+5.0 pts/game)
Biggest swing: 20 points, vs. Elmhurst on 2026-09-26 (+44 final, +24 real)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
ADVANCED PLAYER STATS
JIMMY MAKUH (QB): EPA not on file yet, 48.2% success rate, 57 dropbacks
DAVID FINFER (QB): EPA not on file yet, 39.2% success rate, 53 dropbacks
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
11/05/2026 17:14