In short: Estero (6-3) at Lehigh (2-7), September 4, 2026 (high school football). Final: Lehigh 12, Estero 42. The full report has the projection, unit grades, storylines, pregame notes, Big Game Watch, series history, season stats and both rosters.
| TEAM | PASS O | RUSH O | PASS D | RUSH D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESTERO | 98.4 (+199.2) | 20.9 (-78.8) | 40.9 (+8.5) | 18.4 (+69.8) |
| LEHIGH | 17.0 (-84.5) | 28.8 (-58.2) | 27.7 (+28.7) | 37.5 (+21.6) |
Rank chips: 1 = best in the pool; blue strong, red weak. Yardage and efficiency use games with a full box score on file; points and turnovers use every played game. Unit Index = opponent-adjusted 0-100 league percentile.
| COMPONENT | POINTS | WEIGHT | CONTRIBUTION |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strength | +16.85 | 30% | +5.00 |
| Efficiency | +14.70 | 26% | +3.83 |
| Own Margin | +27.35 | 23% | +6.35 |
| Head To Head | +29.49 | 21% | +6.21 |
| Common Opponents | +14.00 | 0% | +0.00 |
| Garbage Time Margin | -- | 0% | +0.00 |
| EPA Efficiency | -- | 0% | +0.00 |
Mark players out to re-project this game. Each value is how much of the margin that player is worth, from this season's data (his share of his team's win shares). Estimates — your selections change only your view.
| CATEGORY | TEAM | PROJECTED |
|---|---|---|
| Passing | ESTERO | 323.8 |
| Passing | LEHIGH | 121.5 |
| Rushing | ESTERO | 130.4 |
| Rushing | LEHIGH | 190.4 |
| Total | ESTERO | 454.2 |
| Total | LEHIGH | 311.9 |
| ESTERO — PASSING | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| M. STEWART | 23.8/31.5 | 75.6% | 323.8 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 208.8 |
| ESTERO — RUSHING | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| N. WATTERS | 16.8 | 93.9 | 5.6 | 0.0 |
| M. STEWART | 9.2 | 36.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 |
| TOTALS | 26.0 | 130.4 | 5.0 | 1.0 |
| ESTERO — RECEIVING | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | REC | YDS | YPC | TD |
| A. SOERENS | 4.9 | 89.0 | 18.0 | 0.4 |
| H. KING | 4.9 | 82.9 | 16.9 | 2.0 |
| L. ZADACH | 5.1 | 80.7 | 15.7 | 2.1 |
| A. PARKINSON | 5.5 | 71.2 | 13.0 | 0.0 |
| TOTALS | 20.5 | 323.8 | 15.8 | 4.5 |
| LEHIGH — PASSING | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | C/ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | QBR |
| J. WILLIAMS | 5.1/12.1 | 42.0% | 99.7 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 135.4 |
| M. LAWSON | 1.6/2.9 | 55.4% | 21.8 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 112.9 |
| TOTALS | 6.7/15.0 | 44.6% | 121.5 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 131.1 |
| LEHIGH — RUSHING | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
| K. MAJOR | 17.8 | 134.9 | 7.6 | 0.0 |
| J. WILLIAMS | 3.3 | 28.3 | 8.5 | 0.4 |
| J. NESBITT | 2.3 | 27.3 | 11.9 | 0.0 |
| TOTALS | 23.4 | 190.4 | 8.1 | 0.4 |
| LEHIGH — RECEIVING | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | REC | YDS | YPC | TD |
| J. CASTILLO | 3.4 | 36.7 | 10.9 | 0.0 |
| K. MAJOR | 2.5 | 30.9 | 12.6 | 0.0 |
| J. NESBITT | 3.2 | 29.0 | 9.2 | 1.1 |
| J. YOUNG | 1.4 | 24.8 | 18.0 | 0.0 |
| TOTALS | 10.4 | 121.5 | 11.7 | 1.1 |
The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: Estero's run defense. The Wildcats allowed 4.4 yards per carry (88 yards on 20 rushes) against Lehigh on 9/4, well below their 6.7 mark in every other game this season. Estero won the game 42-12. Repeating that kind of run defense edge would put Estero in a strong position to do it again.
Estero's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Estero averaged 4.9 yards per carry (856 yards on 175 rushes) on the season, #381 in section, but that number is boosted by a 159-yard game on 11 rushes against East Lee County on 10/26. In all other games, Estero is at 4.2 yards per carry (697 yards on 164 rushes), a figure that would rank #430 in section. Context matters here: East Lee County's run defense ranks among the weakest in section (8.4 yards per carry, #510 of 560), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Lehigh's run defense (7.2 yards per carry, #447 of 560) gives Estero a real chance to look like the season line again.
The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: Lehigh's run defense. The Lightning allowed 3.5 yards per carry (85 yards on 24 rushes) against Estero on 9/4, well below their 7.8 mark in every other game this season. Despite that, Lehigh lost the game 42-12. Lehigh won that battle and still lost, so the run defense edge alone won't be enough a second time.
The Lehigh offense of late is barely reminiscent of the one that began the season. Lehigh averaged 11.8 points per game over its first 6 games (1-5), #476 in section during that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), the Lightning have averaged 18.7 points per game, a 58% rise, #355 in section during that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Lehigh's last 3 opponents have averaged 31.8 points per game, a #452 scoring defense in section on the season, against 21.3 points per game, #254 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (31.8 points per game), Lehigh scored 41% less than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #293 in section, well below the first 6 (#135), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Lehigh ranks #451 in section in scoring. Estero's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #233 in section (20.1 points per game). Lehigh is 2-0 this season when it scores 21 or more, and 0-7 when it doesn't.
Something changed for Estero's offense after the first 6 games of the season. The Wildcats averaged 35.3 points per game over their first 6 games (3-3), #74 in section over that period. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), Estero has averaged 52.0 points per game, a 47% rise, #11 in section over that timeframe. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Estero's last 3 opponents have averaged 37.4 points per game, a #511 scoring defense in section on the season, against 25.8 points per game, #344 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (37.4 points per game), Estero scored 39% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #428 in section, well below the first 6 (#278), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Wildcats rank #28 in section in scoring. The trend lines up well against Lehigh, whose defense ranks just #511 of 562 (37.4 points per game). Estero is 6-1 this season when it scores 38 or more, and 0-2 when it doesn't.
Estero's defense has slammed the door as the season has worn on. Estero allowed 28.7 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #394 in section over that span. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), the Wildcats have allowed 15.8 points per game, a 45% drop, #145 in section in that timeframe. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Estero's last 6 opponents have averaged 24.7 points per game, a #250 offense in section on the season, against 28.8 points per game, #178 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (24.7 points per game), Estero held those offenses 36% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #361 in section, well below the first 3 (#228), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Only Aubrey Rogers broke through in that span, putting up 45 on 10/23. On the season, Estero ranks #233 in section in scoring defense. The trend lines up well against Lehigh, whose offense ranks just #451 of 562 (14.1 points per game). Estero is 4-1 this season when it holds opponents under 15, and 2-2 when it doesn't.
If there's one number to watch in this matchup, it's Lehigh's scoring defense. Lehigh allowed 20.7 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #260 in section in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (1-5), the Lightning have allowed 45.8 points per game, a 122% rise, #546 in section in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Lehigh's last 6 opponents have averaged 36.8 points per game, a #57 offense in section on the season, against 27.4 points per game, #204 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (36.8 points per game), Lehigh allowed 25% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #148 in section, well above the first 3 (#261), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Conversely, Estero's offense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Wildcats have averaged 43.8 points per game over their last 6 games (5-1), #25 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker scoring defenses in section (31.8 points per game on the season, which would rank #452). Against those norms, Estero scored 38% more than those defenses usually allow. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #361 in section, a lower level of competition. Unless Lehigh's defense rediscovers its early form, the edge in this matchup belongs to Estero. Lehigh is 2-3 this season when it holds opponents under 41, and 0-4 when it doesn't.
The turnover battle has the potential to swing this matchup, with the recent returns favoring Estero. Estero committed 1.6 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (2-3), #312 in section through those games. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (4-0), the Wildcats have committed 0.2 giveaways per game, an 84% drop, #17 in section through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 1.3 per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.3 per game), Estero turned it over 80% less than those defenses usually force. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #420 in section, well below the first 5 (#254), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Lehigh's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Lightning have forced 0.5 takeaways per game over their last 4 games (1-3), #453 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the better offenses in section (1.1 per game on the season, which would rank #167). Against those norms, Lehigh forced 54% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. On paper, that is a matchup that favors Estero.
Lehigh averaged 4.4 yards per play (929 yards on 211 snaps) over its first 5 games (1-4), #470 in section within that period. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (1-3), the Lightning have averaged 5.7 yards per play (1,002 yards on 176 snaps), a 29% rise, #352 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Lehigh's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.3 yards per play, a #349 defense in section on the season, against 6.3 yards per play, #216 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.3 yards per play), Lehigh gained 22% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #253 in section, well below the first 5 (#138), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Conversely, Estero's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Wildcats have allowed 5.8 yards per play (930 yards on 159 snaps) over their last 4 games (4-0), #167 in section during those games. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in section (5.4 yards per play on the season, which would rank #425). Against those norms, Estero allowed 9% more per snap than those offenses usually gain. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #420 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Lehigh's surging offense meets one of section's better units in Estero's.
• Club Estero has gone 5 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards (September 25, 2026 through October 26, 2026), going 4-1 over that stretch, a school-record 5 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Estero has gone 4 straight games averaging 8.0+ yards per attempt (October 9, 2026 through October 26, 2026), going 4-0 over that stretch, matching the program record of 4 straight on record.
• Club Estero has gone 4 straight games averaging 6.0+ yards per play (October 9, 2026 through October 26, 2026), going 4-0 over that stretch, matching the program record of 4 straight on record.
• Club Estero has won 4 straight, and a win would make it 5 in a row. The last time they won 5 or more in a row was 2023, a run of 7.
• Club Estero has gone 4 straight games committing fewer than 2 turnovers (October 9, 2026 through October 26, 2026), going 4-0 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.
• Club Estero is 20-0 all time when holding the opponent under 10 points in the games on file (20 such games).
• Club Estero has scored 156 points over its last 3 games (52.0 a game, October 16, 2026 through October 26, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch on record.
• Club Estero is 6-3 entering play against Lehigh, a start the program has had 1 time before in 5 seasons on record -- most recently 2025, which finished 7-4.
• Series Estero leads the all-time series with Lehigh 1-0, across 1 meetings dating to 2026.
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
--- ESTERO ---
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 6-3 so far | 7-3 (93%) | 6.9-3.1 |
| League | 3-2 so far | 3-2 (100%) | 3.0-2.0 |
--- LEHIGH ---
| RECORD TO DATE | MOST LIKELY FINAL | PROJECTED RECORD | |
| Overall | 2-7 so far | 2-8 (78%) | 2.2-7.8 |
| League | 1-4 so far | 1-4 (100%) | 1.0-4.0 |
• LEH's offense has failed to reach 200 pass yds in 9 straight games (08/20/2026-10/23/2026), going 2-7 over that stretch.
• LEH's offense has failed to reach 150 rush yds in 7 straight games (09/04/2026-10/23/2026), going 1-6 over that stretch.
• EST's offense has averaged 0.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 1.0 giveaways per game. (-67%)
• EST's defense has averaged 8.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 5.7 YPA. (+54%)
• EST is 5-0 (.999) in games decided by more than 8 points
• LEH's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 0.4 takeaways per game. (+50%)
• EST's defense has averaged 62.6 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 9-game average is 118.2 pass yards per game. (-47%)
• EST's offense has exceeded 8.0 YPA in 4 straight games (10/09/2026-10/26/2026), going 4-0 over that stretch.
• EST's offense has exceeded 6.0 YPP in 4 straight games (10/09/2026-10/26/2026), going 4-0 over that stretch.
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)
EST -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 4 of 4 scored; vs 164 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | YPA 8+ | 6-2 | .750 | 45.1 | W5 | 0.641 |
| 2 | OFF | YPP 6+ | 6-2 | .750 | 45.1 | W5 | 0.635 |
| 3 | DEF | Turnovers 1+ | 5-3 | .625 | 20.8 | W3 | 0.382 |
| 4 | DEF | Turnovers < 3 | 5-3 | .625 | 21.6 | W3 | 0.230 |
LEH -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS
(top 5 of 8 scored; vs 164 cached team(s))
| # | SIDE | CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | SCORE |
| 1 | OFF | Rush Yds < 150 | 2-6 | .250 | 15.0 | L1 | 0.879 |
| 2 | OFF | Turnovers 1+ | 2-6 | .250 | 14.9 | L1 | 0.791 |
| 3 | DEF | Turnovers < 2 | 2-7 | .222 | 37.4 | L1 | 0.725 |
| 4 | DEF | Turnovers < 3 | 2-7 | .222 | 37.4 | L1 | 0.709 |
| 5 | DEF | YPP 6+ | 2-6 | .250 | 38.5 | W1 | 0.630 |
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 4)
EST: 1 of 9 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .222 across those game(s).
LEH: 1 of 9 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .667 across those game(s).
(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)
--- EST ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST averages 8.0+ yards per attempt while throwing for 200+ yards | 5-2 | .714 | 42.6 | W4 |
| EST throws for 200+ yards despite being held under 100 rushing yards | 3-1 | .750 | 37.5 | W3 |
| EST holds its opponents under 150 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards | 4-0 | .999 | 10.5 | W4 |
| EST averages 6.0+ yards per play while committing zero giveaways | 3-1 | .750 | 48.5 | W3 |
--- LEH ---
| CONDITION | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| LEH rushes for 100+ yards and is held under 200 passing yards | 1-4 | .200 | 14.2 | L1 |
| Team | Condition | Record | Win% | PPG |
| EST | YPA 8.0+ & Pass Yds 200+ | 5-2 | .714 | 42.6 |
| EST | Pass Yds 200+ & Rush Yds < 100 | 3-1 | .750 | 37.5 |
| EST | Rush Yds < 150 & Pass Yds < 200 | 4-0 | .999 | 10.5 |
| EST | YPP 6.0+ & Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 48.5 |
| LEH | Rush Yds 100+ & Pass Yds < 200 | 1-4 | .200 | 14.2 |
The next meeting brings together Estero (6-3 this season) and Lehigh (2-7). The SP Strength Index has Estero at #191 and Lehigh at #350 of 583 in the FL section. Estero leads the recent series 1-0 over the last 1 meetings. In the most recent meeting, on September 4, 2026, Estero pulled away 42-12.
In the process of winning 5 of its last 7 entering play, Estero's pass defense has been the team's calling card (held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 6 of its last 7, 5-2 in that stretch). That carried into last time out, the Wildcats handling East Lee County 63-8. Having dropped 6 of its last 7 entering play, Lehigh's passing attack has been the team's calling card (held under 200 passing yards in 5 straight, 1-4 in that stretch). Last time out, though, the Lightning fell to Lakewood Ranch 29-14.
The matchup within the matchup pairs Estero's pass defense with Lehigh's passing attack. Estero's pass defense has been playing at a high level over the Wildcats' last 7 games. The defense has held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 6 of the 7 games while averaging 62.6 passing yards allowed per game (including a low of 3 in that span vs. Naples). That is 79% below the Wildcats' baseline of 297.3 yards per game over the 3 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Wildcats have gone 5-2 in that stretch. They'll face a stiff test when the two meet. Lehigh's passing attack has been playing at a high level over the Lightning's last 5 games. The offense has failed to reach 200 passing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 119.2 passing yards per game (including a high of 183 in that span vs. North Port). That is 63% above the Lightning's baseline of 73.2 yards per game over the 4 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Lightning have gone 1-4 in that stretch.
ONE-SIDED — Estero's rushing offense has been playing at a high level over the Wildcats' last 7 games. The ground game has failed to reach 200 rushing yards in 7 straight games, averaging 103.9 rushing yards per game (including a high of 172 in that span vs. Gulf Coast). That is 59% above the Wildcats' baseline of 65.3 yards per game over the 3 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Wildcats have gone 5-2 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Lehigh. Lehigh has averaged 168.0 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.
ONE-SIDED — Estero's passing attack has been a real vulnerability over the Wildcats' last 5 games. Despite throwing for 200+ yards in 3 of the 5 games, the offense has averaged just 245.2 passing yards per game (including a low of 142 in that span vs. Naples). That is 35% below the Wildcats' baseline of 378.4 yards per game over the 5 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Wildcats have gone 4-1 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Lehigh. Lehigh has averaged 198.1 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 6-2 | .750 | 45.1 | W5 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 5-2 | .714 | 42.6 | W4 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 1-1 | .500 | 35.0 | W1 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 3-1 | .750 | 52.8 | W3 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 3-2 | .600 | 31.4 | W2 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 1-1 | .500 | 53.0 | W1 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 5-2 | .714 | 37.4 | W3 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 56.0 | W2 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 33.3 | W3 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 6-2 | .750 | 45.1 | W5 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 46.7 | W3 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 29.3 | W2 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 3-2 | .600 | 34.8 | W1 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 48.5 | W3 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 0-2 | .000 | 13.5 | L2 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.5 | L2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 22.0 | W1 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-7 | .125 | 13.1 | L7 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 2-7 | .222 | 14.1 | L1 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 1-4 | .200 | 14.2 | L1 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 1-3 | .250 | 14.0 | L3 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 2-6 | .250 | 15.0 | L1 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 15.8 | L1 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 12.8 | L4 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 14.3 | L1 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 1-5 | .167 | 14.0 | L5 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 22.0 | W1 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-7 | .125 | 13.1 | L7 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 2-6 | .250 | 14.9 | L1 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 8.0 | L1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-4 | .333 | 16.8 | L1 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 3.5 | L2 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| YPA 8.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 25.7 | W2 |
| YPA < 8.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 17.3 | W2 |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 34.5 | W1 |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 5-2 | .714 | 16.0 | W3 |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 4-3 | .571 | 23.1 | W4 |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 9.5 | W2 |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 2-3 | .400 | 27.8 | W2 |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 10.5 | W4 |
| YPC 5.0+ | 3-3 | .500 | 25.7 | W3 |
| YPC < 5.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.0 | W3 |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-3 | .400 | 28.2 | W2 |
| YPP < 6.0 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 10.0 | W4 |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 39.7 | W1 |
| YPP < 7.0 | 5-1 | .833 | 10.3 | W3 |
| Turnovers 1+ | 5-3 | .625 | 20.8 | W3 |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 15.0 | W1 |
| Turnovers 2+ | 2-1 | .667 | 21.3 | W2 |
| Turnovers > 2 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG | STRK | |
| YPA 8.0+ | 1-5 | .167 | 44.7 | L5 | |
| YPA < 8.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Pass Yds 200+ | 1-3 | .250 | 36.8 | L3 | |
| Pass Yds < 200 | 1-3 | .250 | 40.2 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 100+ | 2-3 | .400 | 32.2 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 100 | 0-3 | .000 | 49.0 | L3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Rush Yds 150+ | 2-3 | .400 | 32.2 | W1 | |
| Rush Yds < 150 | 0-3 | .000 | 49.0 | L3 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPC 5.0+ | 2-4 | .333 | 38.7 | W1 | |
| YPC < 5.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 38.0 | L2 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 6.0+ | 2-6 | .250 | 38.5 | W1 | |
| YPP < 6.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 1 games without this stat on file |
| YPP 7.0+ | 1-5 | .167 | 44.7 | L5 | |
| YPP < 7.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.0 | W1 | 1 games without this stat on file |
| Turnovers 1+ | 1-3 | .250 | 27.8 | L1 | |
| Turnovers < 1 | 1-4 | .200 | 45.2 | L4 | |
| Turnovers 2+ | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Turnovers > 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 |
| Scores 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Scores 20-29 | 0-1 | .000 | 20.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 |
| Scores 40+ | 5-1 | .833 | 50.5 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | 2-1 | .667 | 13.7 |
| Allows 20-29 | 0-1 | .000 | 24.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 40+ | 1-1 | .500 | 47.5 |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Scores <10 | 0-4 | .000 | 5.2 |
| Scores 10-19 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.0 |
| Scores 20-29 | 1-1 | .500 | 21.0 |
| Scores 30-39 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 |
| Scores 40+ | -- | -- | -- |
| SPLIT | REC | WIN% | PPG |
| Allows <10 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 0.0 |
| Allows 10-19 | -- | -- | -- |
| Allows 20-29 | 1-2 | .333 | 23.0 |
| Allows 30-39 | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 |
| Allows 40+ | 0-4 | .000 | 58.5 |
ESTERO
• ESTERO has scored 40+ in 3 straight games (10/16/26–10/26/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• ESTERO has scored 30+ in 4 straight games (10/9/26–10/26/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• ESTERO has won 4 straight (10/9/26–10/26/26). It has not won 5 straight since 9/1/23–10/20/23 (2023).
LEHIGH
• LEHIGH has committed 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has never reached 4 straight in the games on file, back to 2026.
| Team | Side | Split | Games | Record | Win% | PPG | Strk |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 45.1 | W5 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 42.6 | W4 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 35.0 | W1 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 52.8 | W3 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 31.4 | W2 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 53.0 | W1 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 37.4 | W3 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 56.0 | W2 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 33.3 | W3 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 45.1 | W5 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 46.7 | W3 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 29.3 | W2 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 34.8 | W1 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 48.5 | W3 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.5 | L2 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.5 | L2 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 20.0 | L1 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Scores 40+ | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 50.5 | W4 |
| EST | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 25.7 | W2 |
| EST | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 17.3 | W2 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 34.5 | W1 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 16.0 | W3 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 23.1 | W4 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 9.5 | W2 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 27.8 | W2 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 10.5 | W4 |
| EST | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 25.7 | W3 |
| EST | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.0 | W3 |
| EST | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 28.2 | W2 |
| EST | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 10.0 | W4 |
| EST | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 39.7 | W1 |
| EST | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 6 | 5-1 | .833 | 10.3 | W3 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 20.8 | W3 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 15.0 | W1 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 21.3 | W2 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 7.0 | W3 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Allows 10-19 | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 13.7 | W1 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 24.0 | L1 |
| EST | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 47.5 | W1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 22.0 | W1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 13.1 | L7 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 9 | 2-7 | .222 | 14.1 | L1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 14.2 | L1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 14.0 | L3 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 15.0 | L1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 15.8 | L1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 12.8 | L4 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 14.3 | L1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 14.0 | L5 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 22.0 | W1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 13.1 | L7 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 14.9 | L1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 8.0 | L1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 16.8 | L1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Turnovers > 2 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 3.5 | L2 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Scores <10 | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 5.2 | L4 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Scores 10-19 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 13.0 | L2 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Scores 20-29 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 21.0 | W1 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Scores 30-39 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 38.0 | W1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 44.7 | L5 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.0 | W1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 36.8 | L3 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 40.2 | W1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 32.2 | W1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 49.0 | L3 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 32.2 | W1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 49.0 | L3 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 38.7 | W1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 38.0 | L2 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 38.5 | W1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 44.7 | L5 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.0 | W1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 27.8 | L1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 45.2 | L4 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Allows <10 | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 0.0 | W1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Allows 20-29 | 3 | 1-2 | .333 | 23.0 | L1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Allows 30-39 | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 34.0 | L1 |
| LEH | DEFENSE | Allows 40+ | 4 | 0-4 | .000 | 58.5 | L4 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/26/2026 | 4-1 |
| OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/26/2026 | 4-0 |
| OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/26/2026 | 4-0 |
| SIDE | SPLIT | STREAK | DATES | RECORD |
| OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 9 games | 08/20/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-7 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 7 games | 09/04/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-6 |
| OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-3 |
| OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
| OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
| OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
| Team | Side | Split | Streak | Dates | Record |
| EST | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 5 games | 09/25/2026 - 10/26/2026 | 4-1 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 4 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/26/2026 | 4-0 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 4 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/26/2026 | 4-0 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 9 games | 08/20/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 2-7 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 7 games | 09/04/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-6 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 4 games | 10/02/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-3 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Turnovers 2+ | 3 games | 10/09/2026 - 10/23/2026 | 1-2 |
Each pair of rows above is tinted by the gap between the two teams' win% in that scenario, judged for the HOME team (the bottom row):
GRAY = negligible gap (.000-.050)
PURPLE = solid gap (.051-.150)
GREEN = big gap (.151+), favoring the home team
RED = big gap (.151+), against the home team
| 100 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | OFF | OVER | 4 | 3-1 | .750 | 52.8 | W3 |
| LEH | DEF | OVER | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 32.2 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | OFF | UNDER | 5 | 3-2 | .600 | 31.4 | W2 |
| LEH | DEF | UNDER | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 49.0 | L3 |
| 150 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | OFF | OVER | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 53.0 | W1 |
| LEH | DEF | OVER | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 32.2 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | OFF | UNDER | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 37.4 | W3 |
| LEH | DEF | UNDER | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 49.0 | L3 |
| YPC 5.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | OFF | OVER | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 56.0 | W2 |
| LEH | DEF | OVER | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 38.7 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | OFF | UNDER | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 33.3 | W3 |
| LEH | DEF | UNDER | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 38.0 | L2 |
| YPA 8.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | OFF | OVER | 8 | 6-2 | .750 | 45.1 | W5 |
| LEH | DEF | OVER | 6 | 1-5 | .167 | 44.7 | L5 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | OFF | UNDER | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| LEH | DEF | UNDER | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.0 | W1 |
| 200 PASS YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | OFF | OVER | 7 | 5-2 | .714 | 42.6 | W4 |
| LEH | DEF | OVER | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 36.8 | L3 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | OFF | UNDER | 2 | 1-1 | .500 | 35.0 | W1 |
| LEH | DEF | UNDER | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 40.2 | W1 |
| 100 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | OVER | 7 | 4-3 | .571 | 23.1 | W4 |
| LEH | OFF | OVER | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 14.2 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | UNDER | 2 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 9.5 | W2 |
| LEH | OFF | UNDER | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 14.0 | L3 |
| 150 RUSH YDS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | OVER | 5 | 2-3 | .400 | 27.8 | W2 |
| LEH | OFF | OVER | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | UNDER | 4 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 10.5 | W4 |
| LEH | OFF | UNDER | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 15.0 | L1 |
| YPC 5.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | OVER | 6 | 3-3 | .500 | 25.7 | W3 |
| LEH | OFF | OVER | 4 | 1-3 | .250 | 15.8 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | UNDER | 3 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.0 | W3 |
| LEH | OFF | UNDER | 5 | 1-4 | .200 | 12.8 | L4 |
| YPA 8.0 | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | OVER | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 25.7 | W2 |
| LEH | OFF | OVER | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 22.0 | W1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | UNDER | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 17.3 | W2 |
| LEH | OFF | UNDER | 8 | 1-7 | .125 | 13.1 | L7 |
| 0 TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | ZERO | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 15.0 | W1 |
| LEH | OFF | ZERO | 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 8.0 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | OVER | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 20.8 | W3 |
| LEH | OFF | OVER | 8 | 2-6 | .250 | 14.9 | L1 |
| 2+ TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | OVER | 3 | 2-1 | .667 | 21.3 | W2 |
| LEH | OFF | OVER | 6 | 2-4 | .333 | 16.8 | L1 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | UNDER | 6 | 4-2 | .667 | 19.5 | W2 |
| LEH | OFF | UNDER | 3 | 0-3 | .000 | 8.7 | L3 |
| >2 TURNOVERS | |||||||
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | OVER | 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 8.0 | W1 |
| LEH | OFF | OVER | 2 | 0-2 | .000 | 3.5 | L2 |
| TM | SIDE | SPLIT | GM | REC. | WIN% | PPG | STRK |
| EST | DEF | UNDER | 8 | 5-3 | .625 | 21.6 | W3 |
| LEH | OFF | UNDER | 7 | 2-5 | .286 | 17.1 | L1 |
EST OFFENSE
EST's offense has averaged 0.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 1.0 giveaways per game. (-67%)
EST's offense has averaged 52.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 40.9 points scored per game. (+27%)
EST's offense has averaged 7.2 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 5.7 YPC. (+26%)
EST's offense has averaged 8.2 YPA over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 10.6 YPA. (-23%)
EST's offense has averaged 116.0 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 95.1 rush yards per game. (+22%)
EST's offense has averaged 245.2 pass yards per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 311.6 pass yards per game. (-21%)
LEH OFFENSE
LEH's offense has averaged 132.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 98.8 pass yards per game. (+34%)
LEH's offense has averaged 18.7 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 14.1 points scored per game. (+32%)
LEH's offense has averaged 274.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 214.6 total yards per game. (+28%)
LEH's offense has averaged 6.3 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 5.0 YPC. (+26%)
LEH's offense has averaged 141.3 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 115.8 rush yards per game. (+22%)
LEH's offense has averaged 1.4 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 1.8 giveaways per game. (-21%)
LEH's offense has averaged 5.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 4.7 YPA. (+21%)
LEH's offense has averaged 6.0 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 4.9 YPP. (+21%)
EST DEFENSE
EST's defense has averaged 8.7 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 5.7 YPA. (+54%)
EST's defense has averaged 62.6 pass yards per game over their last 7 games. Their 9-game average is 118.2 pass yards per game. (-47%)
EST's defense has averaged 135.7 rush yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 218.0 rush yards per game. (-38%)
EST's defense has averaged 251.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 336.2 total yards per game. (-25%)
LEH DEFENSE
LEH's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 0.4 takeaways per game. (+50%)
LEH's defense has averaged 6.8 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 10.6 YPP. (-35%)
LEH's defense has averaged 5.1 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 7.7 YPC. (-34%)
LEH's defense has averaged 9.2 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 13.5 YPA. (-32%)
LEH's defense has averaged 143.5 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 8-game average is 198.1 pass yards per game. (-28%)
LEH's defense has averaged 27.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 37.4 points allowed per game. (-26%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 2, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- GAME PROJECTION -- FULL DETAIL (report pages 1-2)
Library-native projection: computed directly from the game library (slate_projection.SlateEngine), not the Excel workbook engine. This section does not yet include: an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only).
Note 2 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Note 4 -- OPPONENT STRENGTH (best-effort) -- why this is often empty
Only meaningful for a game against an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team on this workbook -- with just a couple of teams tracked, that's rare (mainly a direct matchup between them, if this run covers both); every other opponent has no win% on file here at all, so most of a team's schedule simply has no strength data to show.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- MATCHUP CONFLICTS — TAB-SEPARATED (13 columns)
| Team1 | Side1 | Split1 | Record1 | Win%1 | PPG1 | Team2 | Side2 | Split2 | Record2 | Win%2 | PPG2 | Relevance |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | EST | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 10.5 | 1.000 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | LEH | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 1-5 | .167 | 44.7 | 0.833 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 22.0 | EST | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 5-1 | .833 | 10.3 | 0.833 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 1-4 | .200 | 14.2 | EST | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 2-0 | 1.000 | 9.5 | 0.800 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 0-1 | .000 | 7.0 | LEH | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 2-6 | .250 | 38.5 | 0.750 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 2-6 | .250 | 14.9 | EST | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1-0 | 1.000 | 15.0 | 0.750 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 3-1 | .750 | 52.8 | LEH | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 0-3 | .000 | 49.0 | 0.750 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 1-3 | .250 | 15.8 | EST | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 3-0 | 1.000 | 9.0 | 0.750 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 14.3 | EST | DEFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 4-0 | 1.000 | 10.0 | 0.667 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 1-0 | 1.000 | 22.0 | EST | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 17.3 | 0.667 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 56.0 | LEH | DEFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 0-2 | .000 | 38.0 | 0.667 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 0-1 | .000 | 8.0 | EST | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 5-3 | .625 | 20.8 | 0.625 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 1-7 | .125 | 13.1 | EST | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 1-2 | .333 | 39.7 | 0.542 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 1-7 | .125 | 13.1 | EST | DEFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 2-1 | .667 | 25.7 | 0.542 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 2-1 | .667 | 29.3 | LEH | DEFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 1-5 | .167 | 44.7 | 0.500 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 3-1 | .750 | 48.5 | LEH | DEFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 1-3 | .250 | 27.8 | 0.500 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 1-1 | .500 | 53.0 | LEH | DEFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 0-3 | .000 | 49.0 | 0.500 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 5-2 | .714 | 42.6 | LEH | DEFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 1-3 | .250 | 40.2 | 0.464 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPP < 6.0 | 1-5 | .167 | 14.0 | EST | DEFENSE | YPP 6.0+ | 2-3 | .400 | 28.2 | 0.433 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Turnovers 1+ | 3-2 | .600 | 34.8 | LEH | DEFENSE | Turnovers < 1 | 1-4 | .200 | 45.2 | 0.400 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 2-6 | .250 | 15.0 | EST | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 2-3 | .400 | 27.8 | 0.350 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 4-2 | .667 | 33.3 | LEH | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 2-4 | .333 | 38.7 | 0.333 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 1-3 | .250 | 14.0 | EST | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 4-3 | .571 | 23.1 | 0.321 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 150 | 5-2 | .714 | 37.4 | LEH | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 150+ | 2-3 | .400 | 32.2 | 0.314 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | YPC < 5.0 | 1-4 | .200 | 12.8 | EST | DEFENSE | YPC 5.0+ | 3-3 | .500 | 25.7 | 0.300 |
| LEH | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 2-7 | .222 | 14.1 | EST | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1-1 | .500 | 34.5 | 0.278 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPA 8.0+ | 6-2 | .750 | 45.1 | LEH | DEFENSE | YPA < 8.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.0 | 0.250 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Pass Yds < 200 | 1-1 | .500 | 35.0 | LEH | DEFENSE | Pass Yds 200+ | 1-3 | .250 | 36.8 | 0.250 |
| EST | OFFENSE | Rush Yds < 100 | 3-2 | .600 | 31.4 | LEH | DEFENSE | Rush Yds 100+ | 2-3 | .400 | 32.2 | 0.200 |
| EST | OFFENSE | YPP 7.0+ | 4-2 | .667 | 46.7 | LEH | DEFENSE | YPP < 7.0 | 1-1 | .500 | 20.0 | 0.167 |
Data Export 2 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
| Team | Side | Type | Stat | Opponent | Window/Meetings | Value | BaselineGames | BaselineAvg | Deviation |
| EST | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 7 | 62.6 | 9 | 118.2 | -47.1% | |
| EST | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 5 | 245.2 | 9 | 311.6 | -21.3% | |
| EST | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 52.0 | 9 | 40.9 | +27.2% | |
| EST | DEFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 135.7 | 9 | 218.0 | -37.8% | |
| EST | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 116.0 | 9 | 95.1 | +22.0% | |
| EST | DEFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 251.0 | 9 | 336.2 | -25.3% | |
| EST | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.3 | 9 | 1.0 | -66.7% | |
| EST | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 8.7 | 9 | 5.7 | +54.2% | |
| EST | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 5 | 8.2 | 9 | 10.6 | -22.5% | |
| EST | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 7.2 | 9 | 5.7 | +26.4% | |
| LEH | DEFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 143.5 | 8 | 198.1 | -27.6% | |
| LEH | OFFENSE | team | Pass Yards | last 3 | 132.7 | 9 | 98.8 | +34.3% | |
| LEH | DEFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 27.7 | 9 | 37.4 | -26.1% | |
| LEH | OFFENSE | team | Points | last 3 | 18.7 | 9 | 14.1 | +32.3% | |
| LEH | OFFENSE | team | Rush Yards | last 3 | 141.3 | 9 | 115.8 | +22.1% | |
| LEH | OFFENSE | team | Total Yards | last 3 | 274.0 | 9 | 214.6 | +27.7% | |
| LEH | DEFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 3 | 0.7 | 9 | 0.4 | +50.0% | |
| LEH | OFFENSE | team | Turnovers | last 5 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 | -21.2% | |
| LEH | DEFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 9.2 | 8 | 13.5 | -31.8% | |
| LEH | OFFENSE | team | YPA | last 3 | 5.7 | 9 | 4.7 | +21.0% | |
| LEH | DEFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 5.1 | 8 | 7.7 | -34.1% | |
| LEH | OFFENSE | team | YPC | last 3 | 6.3 | 9 | 5.0 | +25.8% | |
| LEH | DEFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 6.8 | 8 | 10.6 | -35.1% | |
| LEH | OFFENSE | team | YPP | last 3 | 6.0 | 9 | 4.9 | +20.7% |
