In short: Compton (9-1) at Centennial (5-4), October 23, 2026 (CIF-SS high school football). Final: Centennial 6, Compton 47. The full report has the projection, unit grades, storylines, pregame notes, Big Game Watch, series history, season stats and both rosters.

COMPTON

SCOREPIRATE MATCHUP REPORT ·

COMPTON (AWAY) AT CENTENNIAL (HOME)

COMPTON 47.4  —  3.9 CENTENNIAL

COMPTON 98.4% FAVORITES

CENTENNIAL

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⚠ COMPTON OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME @ CENTENNIAL* MISSING

⚠ CENTENNIAL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/23/2026 GAME VS. COMPTON MISSING

⚠ CENTENNIAL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/09/2026 GAME @ CABRILLO* MISSING

⚠ CENTENNIAL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 10/02/2026 GAME VS. COMPTON EARLY COLLEGE* MISSING

⚠ CENTENNIAL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/24/2026 GAME VS. MANUAL ARTS MISSING

⚠ CENTENNIAL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/18/2026 GAME @ HAWTHORNE MISSING

⚠ CENTENNIAL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/11/2026 GAME @ WEST MISSING

⚠ CENTENNIAL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 09/04/2026 GAME @ PENINSULA MISSING

⚠ CENTENNIAL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 08/28/2026 GAME @ BEVERLY HILLS MISSING

⚠ CENTENNIAL OFFENSIVE STATS FOR 08/21/2026 GAME VS. MARK KEPPEL MISSING

Figures are subject to change when the box score posts.

UNIT INDEX — GRADE (YDS VS AVG)

TEAM	PASS O	RUSH O	PASS D	RUSH D
COMPTON	34.4 (-46.4)	54.3 (-1.2)	90.7 (-76.4)	77.5 (-60.7)
CENTENNIAL	39.6 (-36.3)	10.0 (-115.1)	21.8 (+39.0)	24.5 (+52.0)

COMPTON AT CENTENNIAL

ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW · 2026 SEASON

TIMEFRAME This season (2026)Last 2 years (2025–26)Last 4 years (2023–26)Last 6 years (2021–26)Last 8 years (2019–26)Last 10 years (2017–26)RANKS VS SECTION LEAGUE CIF Southern Section · 432 teams DOWNLOAD CARD AS PDFDOWNLOAD AS JPEG

WIN PROB

98.4%

PROJ PTS

47.4

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WIN PROB

1.6%

PROJ PTS

3.9

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N/A: no box-score data on file yet for CENTENNIAL in this window — those categories fill in as games are scored.

Averages, ranks and records above cover the selected window; SP STRENGTH INDEX and the UNIT/RUSH/PASS INDEX rows are full-library ratings and do not change with it.

Rank chips: 1 = best in the pool; blue strong, red weak. Yardage and efficiency use games with a full box score on file; points and turnovers use every played game. Unit Index = opponent-adjusted 0-100 league percentile.

PROJECTION COMPONENTS

COMPONENT	POINTS	WEIGHT	CONTRIBUTION
Common Opponents	+18.10	31%	+5.54
Strength	+25.80	27%	+6.93
Own Margin	+16.85	22%	+3.63
Head To Head	+29.07	21%	+6.10
Efficiency	+38.03	0%	+0.00
Garbage Time Margin	--	0%	+0.00
EPA Efficiency	--	0%	+0.00

What if he’s out?

Mark players out to re-project this game. Each value is how much of the margin that player is worth, from this season's data (his share of his team's win shares). Estimates — your selections change only your view.

PROJECTED TEAM YARDAGE

CATEGORY	TEAM	PROJECTED
Passing	COMPTON	144.8
Passing	CENTENNIAL	72.1
Rushing	COMPTON	239.7
Rushing	CENTENNIAL	60.2
Total	COMPTON	384.5
Total	CENTENNIAL	132.2

PROJECTED BOX SCORE

COMPTON — PASSING
PLAYER	C/ATT	COMP %	YDS	YPA	TD	INT	QBR
DONNIE JOHNSON III	7.0/13.4	52.0%	127.9	9.5	1.8	0.4	171.0
ISAAC ZAZUETA	0.9/1.8	51.6%	17.0	9.4	0.2	0.0	158.0
TOTALS	7.9/15.2	52.0%	144.8	9.5	2.0	0.4	169.4

COMPTON — RUSHING
PLAYER	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
EDWARD RIVERA	11.4	156.8	13.7	2.3
NATE WILLARD	6.6	49.4	7.5	0.5
TREVON FAIR	2.7	33.5	12.6	0.4
TOTALS	20.7	239.7	11.6	3.3

COMPTON — RECEIVING
PLAYER	REC	YDS	YPC	TD
EDWARD RIVERA	3.3	58.5	18.0	0.7
RONNIE MIXON	2.7	39.6	14.7	0.5
ASHTON MARTIN	1.5	24.9	17.1	0.4
JAY'ROME NORWOOD	2.1	21.7	10.5	0.2
TOTALS	9.5	144.8	15.3	1.8

PREGAME NOTES

The Compton defense of late is barely reminiscent of the one that began the season. Compton allowed 16.0 points per game over its first 6 games (5-1), #90 in CIF-SS within that period. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (4-0), the Tarbabes have allowed 6.5 points per game, a 59% drop, #20 in CIF-SS across those games. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Compton's last 4 opponents have averaged 20.6 points per game, a #271 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 17.6 points per game, #318 for the first 6. Measured against those opponents' norms (20.6 points per game), Compton held those offenses 68% below what they usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #357 in CIF-SS, well below the first 6 (#271), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, Compton ranks #30 in CIF-SS in scoring defense. Centennial's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #179 in CIF-SS (26.3 points per game).

Something changed for Compton's offense after the first 7 games of the season. The Tarbabes averaged 31.6 points per game over their first 7 games (6-1), #100 in CIF-SS during those games. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (3-0), Compton has averaged 51.0 points per game, a 62% rise, #11 in CIF-SS during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 32.8 points per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (32.1 points per game), Compton scored 59% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 3 opponents average a rating that would rank #371 in CIF-SS, well below the first 7 (#274), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Tarbabes rank #45 in CIF-SS in scoring. Centennial's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #236 in CIF-SS (25.4 points per game). Compton is 8-0 this season when it scores 26 or more, and 1-1 when it doesn't.

Compton's defense has stopped creating turnovers as the season has developed. Compton forced 2.2 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #44 in CIF-SS during that stretch. In the 6 games since that hot start (5-1), the Tarbabes have forced 1.4 takeaways per game, a 38% drop, #162 in CIF-SS over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Compton's last 6 opponents have averaged 1.6 per game, a #291 offense in CIF-SS on the season, against 1.8 per game, #326 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.6 per game), Compton forced 13% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. On the season, Compton ranks #74 in CIF-SS in takeaways. Centennial's ball security, #348 of 404 (2.0 per game), could be the get-right matchup Compton needs.

Centennial allowed 29.8 points per game over its first 5 games (3-2), #301 in CIF-SS over that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 4 games that followed (2-2), the Apaches have allowed 20.0 points per game, a 33% drop, #150 in CIF-SS over that span. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 19.0 points per game on the season. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #367 in CIF-SS. Only Compton broke through in that span, putting up 47 on 10/23. On the season, Centennial ranks #236 in CIF-SS in scoring defense. That form gets a real test against Compton, whose offense ranks #45 in CIF-SS (37.4 points per game). Centennial is 5-1 this season when it holds opponents under 38, and 0-3 when it doesn't.

One of Compton's most reliable areas lately has been its ground game. The Tarbabes averaged 8.3 yards per carry (687 yards on 83 rushes) over their first 4 games (4-0), #41 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that slow start (5-1), Compton has averaged 10.5 yards per carry (873 yards on 83 rushes), a 27% rise, #11 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 8.1 yards per carry on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (8.0 yards per carry), Compton ran for 32% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #332 in CIF-SS. On the season, the Tarbabes rank #16 in CIF-SS in rushing. Centennial's run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #234 in CIF-SS (6.0 yards per carry).

MILESTONE WATCH

Compton

• Edward Rivera needs 1 rushing touchdown for 15 (averaging 1.6 a game)
• Jay'Rome Norwood needs 9 tackles for 75 (averaging 8.2 a game)

STORYLINES

The turnover battle has the potential to swing this matchup, with the recent returns favoring Centennial. Compton committed 0.5 giveaways per game over its first 4 games (4-0), #27 in CIF-SS in that timeframe. In the 6 games since that hot start (5-1), the Tarbabes have committed 1.8 giveaways per game, a 260% rise, #309 in CIF-SS in that window. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Compton's last 6 opponents have averaged 0.9 per game, a #300 defense in CIF-SS on the season, against 0.7 per game, #338 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (0.9 per game), Compton turned it over 97% more than those defenses usually force. Meanwhile, Centennial's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Apaches have forced 0.0 takeaways per game over their last 6 games (3-3), #393 in CIF-SS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in CIF-SS (1.2 per game on the season, which would rank #177). Against those norms, Centennial forced 100% fewer turnovers than those offenses usually give up. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #349 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.

If there's one number to watch in this matchup, it's Centennial's scoring. Centennial averaged 16.5 points per game over its first 4 games (2-2), #307 in CIF-SS through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (3-2), the Apaches have averaged 34.2 points per game, a 107% rise, #88 in CIF-SS through that stretch. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 30.8 points per game on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (31.8 points per game), Centennial scored 8% more than those defenses usually allow. Overall, though, those opponents have been lower-level teams: their average SP Strength Index rating would rank just #369 in CIF-SS. Conversely, Compton's defense has been one of CIF-SS's better units in recent weeks. The Tarbabes have allowed 13.4 points per game over their last 5 games (4-1), #55 in CIF-SS over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in CIF-SS (20.0 points per game on the season, which would rank #278). Against those norms, Compton held those offenses 33% below what they usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #334 in CIF-SS, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Centennial's surging offense meets one of CIF-SS's better units in Compton's. Centennial is 4-2 this season when it scores 13 or more, and 1-2 when it doesn't.

• COMPTON is shown in its secondary color -- the two schools' primary colors are 82% similar.
• an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only)

• Club The last time Centennial went a game rushing for 150+ yards was November 8, 2013 against Lawndale (L, 18-20). Since then Centennial has gone 56 straight games being held under 150 rushing yards, a school-record 56 straight in the 22 seasons on record.

• Club Compton is 58-1 all time when scoring 40+ points. Compton's last loss when scoring 40+ points was October 14, 2016 against Lakewood (L, 64-80).

• Club The last time Centennial went a game averaging 8.0+ yards per attempt was October 22, 2021 against Morningside (W, 30-24). Since then Centennial has gone 45 straight games being held under 8.0 yards per attempt, a school-record 45 straight in the 22 seasons on record.

• Club Compton has won 4 straight, and a win would make it 5 in a row. The last time they won 5 or more in a row was 2026, a run of 5.

• Player Edward Rivera has gone 6 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.

• Club The last time Centennial went a game allowing 200+ passing yards was October 10, 2025 against Brentwood School (L, 0-33). Since then Centennial has gone 12 straight games holding the opponent under 200 passing yards, a school-record 12 straight in the 22 seasons on record.

• Player Edward Rivera has 468 rushing yards over his last 3 games (156.0 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Club Compton is 9-1 entering play against Centennial, its first 9-1 start through 10 games in the 23 seasons on record.

• Club Centennial is 13-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (13 such games).

• Player Donnie Johnson Iii has 7 touchdown passes over his last 3 games (2.3 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Club Centennial has scored 141 points over its last 4 games (35.2 a game, September 24, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- its 5th-highest 4-game total on record; the most is 161, from November 12, 2010 through October 7, 2011.

• Series This week's meeting is the 5th time in 17 all-time meetings in which one of the two teams enters unbeaten — in 2024, Compton entered 1-0 (Compton won 47-12) and in 2025, Compton entered 1-0 (Compton won 56-7).

• Player Ashton Martin has 3 touchdown catches over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, October 2, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Jay'rome Norwood has 3 sacks over his last 3 games (1.0 a game, September 25, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch on record.

• Player Jay'rome Norwood has 24 tackles over his last 3 games (8.0 a game, September 25, 2026 through October 16, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch since the 26 he had from August 27, 2026 through September 11, 2026.

• Series Compton leads the all-time series with Centennial 11-5, across 16 meetings dating to 2009, and has won 9 straight in the series -- most recently 47-6 on October 23, 2026.

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)

--- CENTENNIAL ---

COM (1)

Commitments per 247Sports, limited to players on each team's current roster.

• COM's offense has averaged 19.9 YPA over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 11.7 YPA. (+70%)

• COM's offense has averaged 18.5 YPP over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 11.1 YPP. (+67%)

• COM's offense has averaged 17.6 YPC over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 10.8 YPC. (+63%)

• COM's offense has averaged 209.0 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 131.1 pass yards per game. (+59%)

• COM's defense has averaged 6.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 12.2 points allowed per game. (-45%)

• COM's offense has averaged 1.8 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 1.2 giveaways per game. (+43%)

• COM's offense has averaged 51.0 points scored per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 37.4 points scored per game. (+36%)

• CEN's offense has averaged 34.2 points scored per game over their last 5 games. Their 9-game average is 26.3 points scored per game. (+30%)

• COM's offense has averaged 385.0 total yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 304.4 total yards per game. (+26%)

• CEN is 3-1 (.750) at home

• COM averages 11.8+ yards per carry (COM's own median) (.999)

• COM averages 9.5+ yards per play (COM's own median) (.999)

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 4)

COM: 1 of 10 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .556 across those game(s).

CEN: 2 of 9 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .900 across those game(s).

(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)

--- COM ---

The next meeting brings together Compton (9-1 this season) and Centennial (5-4). The SP Strength Index has Compton at #177 and Centennial at #363 of 431 in the CIF-Southern Section. Compton leads the recent series 5-0 over the last 5 meetings. In the most recent meeting, on October 23, 2026, Compton pulled away 47-6.

In the process of winning 6 of its last 7 entering play, Compton's pass defense has been the team's calling card (held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 5 straight games, 4-1 in that stretch). That carried into last time out, the Tarbabes handling Centennial 47-6. Having dropped 4 of its last 7 entering play, Centennial's pass protection has been the team's calling card (conceded at least 1 sack in 6 of its last 10, 4-6 in that stretch). Last time out, though, the Apaches fell to Compton 47-6.

The matchup within the matchup pairs Compton's takeaway production with Centennial's ball security. Compton has taken the ball away 17 times in the Tarbabes' last 10 games, dating back to last season — the Tarbabes have gone 8-2 in that stretch. They'll face a stiff test when the two meet. Centennial has turned the ball over only 16 times in the Apaches' last 10 games, dating back to last season — the Apaches have gone 5-5 in that stretch. Compton has historically had its way in this matchup: 2.3 takeaways per game across its last 3 meetings with Centennial, against 1.1 versus everyone else in the same span.

ONE-SIDED — Compton's pass defense has been playing at a high level over the Tarbabes' last 5 games. The defense has held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 103.4 passing yards allowed per game (including a low of 23 in that span vs. Dominguez). That is 42% below the Tarbabes' baseline of 176.9 yards per game over the 14 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Tarbabes have gone 4-1 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Centennial. Centennial has averaged 202.2 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Centennial's pass protection has been playing at a high level over the Apaches' last 10 games, dating back to last season. Despite keeping the quarterback clean in only 4 of the 10 games, the offensive line has averaged 1.1 sacks allowed per game (including a low of 0 in that span vs. Heritage Christian). That is 52% below the Apaches' baseline of 2.3 per game over the 7 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Apaches have gone 4-6 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Compton.

ONE-SIDED — Compton's rushing offense has been playing at a high level over the Tarbabes' last 7 games. Despite eclipsing 200 rushing yards in only 3 of the 7 games, the ground game has averaged 178.3 rushing yards per game (including a high of 284 in that span vs. Dominguez). That is 57% above the Tarbabes' baseline of 113.9 yards per game over the 21 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Tarbabes have gone 6-1 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Centennial. Centennial has averaged 190.5 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Compton's rush defense has been playing at a high level over the Tarbabes' last 10 games, dating back to last season. Despite holding its opponents under 100 rushing yards in only 4 of the 10 games, the defense has averaged 121.4 rushing yards allowed per game (including a low of 17 in that span vs. Rancho Dominguez). That is 46% below the Tarbabes' baseline of 223.9 yards per game over the 9 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Tarbabes have gone 4-6 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Centennial. Centennial has averaged 124.2 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

COMPTON

• COMPTON has won by 20+ in 4 straight games (10/2/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• COMPTON has scored 30+ in 4 straight games (10/2/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 5 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• COMPTON has scored 40+ in 3 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• COMPTON has won 4 straight (10/2/26–10/23/26). It has not won 5 straight since 8/20/26–9/18/26 (2026).

CENTENNIAL

• CENTENNIAL has allowed 30+ in 2 straight games (10/9/26–10/23/26). It has not allowed 30+ in 3 straight since 10/10/25–10/24/25 (2025). It has reached 3 straight 4 times in the last 4 years.

Each pair of rows above is tinted by the gap between the two teams' win% in that scenario, judged for the HOME team (the bottom row):

GRAY = negligible gap (.000-.050)

PURPLE = solid gap (.051-.150)

GREEN = big gap (.151+), favoring the home team

RED = big gap (.151+), against the home team

COM OFFENSE vs CEN DEFENSE

CEN OFFENSE vs COM DEFENSE

COM DEFENSE

COM's defense has averaged 6.7 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 12.2 points allowed per game. (-45%)

(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 2, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)

Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.

Explanatory Notes

Note 1 -- GAME PROJECTION -- FULL DETAIL (report pages 1-2)

Library-native projection: computed directly from the game library (slate_projection.SlateEngine), not the Excel workbook engine. This section does not yet include: an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only).

Note 2 -- SEASON OUTLOOK

Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).

Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored

Every split this report computes is scored on four weighted criteria and the top 5 per team are listed. In Cooper's own weighting order: (1) the WIN% attached to the condition, counted only when the condition has occurred at least 8 times -- a smaller sample is dropped outright, not discounted; (2) the PPG attached to it, with higher better on offense and lower better on defense, and each side normalized against its own kind so a defensive number competes with defensive numbers rather than against scoring averages; (3) how far the number sits from the OPPONENT's on the same condition, across win%, PPG and how often the condition happens at all; and (4) where it falls among every other team previously run through this workbook and cached. Criteria 1 and 2 measure how strong a number is; 3 and 4 measure how much it distinguishes this team. Weights: win_pct 40%, ppg 27%, matchup 20%, pool 13%. See important_numbers.py.

Note 4 -- OPPONENT STRENGTH (best-effort) -- why this is often empty

Only meaningful for a game against an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team on this workbook -- with just a couple of teams tracked, that's rare (mainly a direct matchup between them, if this run covers both); every other opponent has no win% on file here at all, so most of a team's schedule simply has no strength data to show.

Full Data Exports

Data Export 1 -- MATCHUP CONFLICTS — TAB-SEPARATED (13 columns)

Data Export 2 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)