Next: at Natalia, Fri 30 Oct. Matchup report: Poteet at Natalia.

The turnover battle could decide Poteet's next game, against Natalia, and the recent returns favor Poteet. Poteet forced 0.5 takeaways per game over its first 4 games (1-3), #957 in section in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), the Aggies have forced 1.5 takeaways per game, a 200% rise, #376 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Poteet's last 4 opponents have averaged 1.3 per game, a #683 offense in section on the season, against 1.1 per game, #478 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.3 per game), Poteet forced 14% more turnovers than those offenses usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #783 in section, well above the first 4 (#1044), which makes the improvement more impressive. Conversely, Natalia's ball security has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Mustangs have committed 0.0 giveaways per game over their last 4 games (0-4), #1 in section during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of defenses in section (1.0 per game on the season, which would rank #728). Against those norms, Natalia turned it over 100% less than those defenses usually force. Something has to give when Poteet's surging defense meets one of section's better units in Natalia's.

The number to watch when Poteet meets Natalia is Poteet's scoring. Poteet averaged 27.0 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #647 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Aggies have averaged 19.8 points per game, a 27% drop, #919 in section through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Poteet's last 5 opponents have averaged 30.1 points per game, a #693 scoring defense in section on the season, against 34.3 points per game, #861 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (30.1 points per game), Poteet scored 34% less than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #815 in section, well above the first 3 (#1076), so the dip has come against better teams overall. Poteet was held to 14 points or fewer 3 times in those games, including 0 against Carrizo Springs on 9/18. Meanwhile, Natalia's defense has struggled in recent weeks. The Mustangs have allowed 48.8 points per game over their last 5 games (1-4), #1117 in section over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (30.2 points per game on the season, which would rank #575). Against those norms, Natalia allowed 61% more than those offenses usually score. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #758 in section, a lower level of competition. Both units come in looking to get right, and whichever does first may decide the game.

Poteet's ground game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Poteet averaged 5.9 yards per carry (1,096 yards on 187 rushes) on the season, #517 in section, but that number is boosted by a 267-yard game on 23 rushes against Somerset Academy Collegiate on 9/11. In all other games, Poteet is at 5.1 yards per carry (829 yards on 164 rushes), a figure that would rank #741 in section. Context matters here: Somerset Academy Collegiate's run defense ranks among the weakest in section (8.0 yards per carry, #1049 of 1234), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Natalia's run defense (8.3 yards per carry, #1077 of 1234) gives Poteet a real chance to look like the season line again.

The biggest shift in Poteet's season has come in its ball security. The Aggies committed 2.2 giveaways per game over their first 4 games (1-3), #1042 in section within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), Poteet has committed 1.0 giveaways per game, a 56% drop, #416 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Poteet's last 4 opponents have averaged 0.9 per game, a #905 defense in section on the season, against 1.7 per game, #304 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (0.9 per game), Poteet turned it over 16% more than those defenses usually force. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #783 in section, well above the first 4 (#1044), which makes the improvement more impressive. On the season, the Aggies rank #877 in section in giveaways. The trend lines up well against Natalia, whose defense ranks just #1084 of 1234 (0.5 per game).

Poteet averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt (835 yards on 125 attempts) over its first 4 games (1-3), #655 in section during those games. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), the Aggies have averaged 10.0 yards per pass attempt (859 yards on 86 attempts), a 50% rise, #258 in section during that period. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 9.4 yards per attempt on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (9.4 yards per attempt), Poteet threw for 7% more per attempt than those pass defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #783 in section, well above the first 4 (#1044), which makes the improvement more impressive. On the season, Poteet ranks #513 in section in passing. The trend lines up well against Natalia, whose pass defense ranks just #1140 of 1234 (11.8 yards per attempt).

Poteet's offense has come a long way since the season's early weeks. The Aggies averaged 6.3 yards per play (1,373 yards on 219 snaps) over their first 4 games (1-3), #612 in section during that stretch. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), Poteet has averaged 7.9 yards per play (1,417 yards on 179 snaps), a 26% rise, #300 in section over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Poteet's last 4 opponents have averaged 7.5 yards per play, a #820 defense in section on the season, against 8.2 yards per play, #964 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.5 yards per play), Poteet gained 6% more per snap than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 4 opponents average a rating that would rank #783 in section, well above the first 4 (#1044), which makes the improvement more impressive. On the season, the Aggies rank #479 in section in yards per play. The trend lines up well against Natalia, whose defense ranks just #1129 of 1234 (9.6 yards per play).

Something changed for Poteet's defense after its first 3 games. Poteet allowed 34.0 points per game over its first 3 games (1-2), #841 in section over that timeframe. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Aggies have allowed 43.0 points per game, a 26% rise, #1017 in section over that span. The schedule has a lot to do with it: Poteet's last 5 opponents have averaged 31.1 points per game, a #551 offense in section on the season, against 24.1 points per game, #825 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (31.1 points per game), Poteet allowed 38% more than those offenses usually score. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #815 in section, well above the first 3 (#1076), so the dip has come against better teams overall. On the season, Poteet ranks #1018 in section in scoring defense. Natalia's offense sits in the middle of the pack, #867 in section (22.1 points per game). Poteet is 2-0 this season when it holds opponents under 23, and 0-6 when it doesn't.